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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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A framework for strategic discovery of credible neural network surrogate models under uncertainty

The widespread integration of deep neural networks in developing data-driven surrogate models for high-fidelity simulations of complex physical systems highlights the critical necessity for robust uncertainty quantification techniques and credibility assessment methodologies, ensuring the reliable deployment of surrogate models in consequential decision-making. Here, this study presents the Occam Plausibility Algorithm for surrogate models (OPAL-surrogate), providing a systematic framework to uncover predictive neural network-based surrogate models within the large space of potential models, including various neural network classes and choices of architecture and hyperparameters. The framework is grounded in hierarchical Bayesian inferences and employs model validation tests to evaluate the credibility and prediction reliability of the surrogate models under uncertainty. Leveraging these principles, OPAL-surrogate introduces a systematic and efficient strategy for balancing the trade-off between model complexity, accuracy, and prediction uncertainty. The effectiveness of OPAL-surrogate is demonstrated through two modeling problems, including the deformation of porous materials for building insulation and turbulent combustion flow for ablation of solid fuels within hybrid rocket motors.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Shock wave formation in the thermosphere by an earthgrazing fireball: Empirical evidence for volatile-enhanced hydrodynamic shielding

Hydrodynamic shielding is a theoretically well-established but observationally elusive and experimentally difficult-to-replicate phenomenon with implications that extend far beyond meteor physics. Rare earthgrazing meteoroids with infrasound signatures that penetrate to the ground can be used to probe hydrodynamic shielding that leads to strong shock formation at high altitude. Here, we report the first coordinated optical and multi-station infrasound observations of a centimeter-scale earthgrazing fireball that generated sustained cylindrical line shock at thermospheric altitudes near 92 km. The event was recorded by numerous optical stations and three infrasound arrays, allowing trajectory reconstruction, ablation behavior, acoustic source localization, and shock characteristics. Optical observations indicate early mechanical erosion and ablation/evaporation at exceptionally low dynamic pressure, consistent with a cometary or a porous, volatile-bearing CM chondritic object. Independent infrasound detections localize shock generation to multiple points along a 164 km trajectory segment near perigee. Weak-shock modeling yields a consistent blast radius of ∼30 m, implying an acoustic-equivalent source size far exceeding the physical dimensions of the ∼45 g nucleus. We demonstrate that classical gas dynamics and ablation-driven hydrodynamic shielding alone cannot account for these observations under ambient thermospheric conditions. We show that volatile release provides the additional flow-field density enhancement required to amplify hydrodynamic shielding, reduce the effective local Knudsen number, and sustain a shock envelope capable of radiating detectable infrasound. Furthermore, these results demonstrate that small, volatile-rich meteoroids can transiently establish continuum-like flow in rarefied environments.

Astrometry↗

Pulsed laser synthesis of mesoporous metal chalcogenide thin films

Mesoporous films of the metal chalcogenide B-FeSe were grown on MgO substrates by KrF pulsed laser deposition (PLD) in an argon background. At 100 mTorr, gated intensified charge-coupled device imaging and ion probe measurements showed that the plasma plume responsible for crystal growth initially comprised three components, with distinct expansion velocities. Plume interactions with the substrate heater and ablation target gave rise to complex dynamics, including collisions between the charged leading edge—rebounding between the substrate and the target—and slower-moving species in the plume interior. Film growth was dominated by species with kinetic energies ≤0.5 eV/atom. X-ray reflectivity revealed that films grown in this environment—with a substrate temperature of 350 ° C, a laser fluence of 1.0 J cm −2 , and a 7.5 mm 2 spot area—formed a porous framework with 15% porosity. Atomic force microscopy showed surface features that suggest pore sizes below 100 nm. X-ray diffraction indicated that the porous films were epitaxial with respect to the substrate and likely grew by oriented-attachment of gas-phase molecular clusters or very small nanoparticles, in contrast to the conventional epitaxy of vacuum films from atomic constituents. The in-plane orientation of the mesoporous films was B-FeSe [100]||[110] MgO, attributed to the soft landing of pre-formed crystallites on the MgO substrates, where protruding Se rows of B-FeSe aligned with corrugations of the MgO surface. In conclusion, this work implies that growth of candidate electrocatalyst materials by PLD in inert gas background may allow mesoporous frameworks with a single crystallographic orientation that expose specific crystal facets for electrochemical reactions and active site engineering.

cluster epitaxy↗