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Surveying Outreach and Citizen Science Opportunities for Planetary Defense

Planetary defense stands out among the various topics of space science as an endeavour which the general public can understand, for which they can readily appreciate the value, and in which they can find significant relevance to their own lives. This is well illustrated in the extensive coverage that the international general media continues to give to the IAA Planetary Defense Conferences and their hypothetical NEO/Earth impact event scenarios. However, frequent doomsday predictions and bad movie plots illustrate that this is also an area for misinformation, misconceptions, and misunderstanding. In an endeavour as high-profile and critical as planetary defense, a campaign of accurate and effective public outreach is essential. In this presentation, we will survey some of the existing programs and opportunities that are particularly applicable to planetary defense outreach. This is done to stimulate discussion about how to best leverage existing resources and how to use lessons learned in creating new resources.

Day, Brian

Mission Design and Optimal Asteroid Deflection for Planetary Defense

Planetary defense is a topic of increasing interest for many reasons, which has been mentioned in "Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022''. However, perhaps one of the most significant rationales for asteroid studies is the number of close approaches that have been documented recently. A space mission with a planetary defense objective aims to deflect the threatening body as far as possible from Earth. The design of a mission that optimally deflects an asteroid has different challenges: speed, precision, and system trade-off. This work addresses such issues and develops a fast transcription of the problem that can be implemented into an optimization tool, which allows for a broader trade study of different mission concepts with a medium fidelity. Such work is suitable for a mission?s preliminary study. It is shown, using the fictitious asteroid impact scenario 2017 PDC, that the complete tool is able to account for the orbit sensitivity to small perturbations and quickly optimize a deflection trajectory. The speed in which the tool operates allows for a trade study between the available hardware. As a result, key deflection dates and mission strategies are identified for the 2017 PDC.

Planetary defense

Mission Design and Optimal Asteroid Deflection for Planetary Defense

Planetary defense is a topic of increasing interest for many reasons, which has been mentioned in "Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022". However, perhaps one of the most significant rationales for asteroid studies is the number of close approaches that have been documented recently. A space mission with a planetary defense objective aims to deflect the threatening body as far as possible from Earth. The design of a mission that optimally deflects an asteroid has different challenges: speed, precision, and system trade-off. This work addresses such issues and develops a fast transcription of the problem that can be implemented into an optimization tool, which allows for a broader trade study of different mission concepts with a medium fidelity. Such work is suitable for a mission's preliminary study. It is shown, using the fictitious asteroid impact scenario 2017 PDC, that the complete tool is able to account for the orbit sensitivity to small perturbations and quickly optimize a deflection trajectory. The speed in which the tool operates allows for a trade study between the available hardware. As a result, key deflection dates and mission strategies are identified for the 2017 PDC.

Trajectory optimization

NASA analysis of space mission options for the 2025 planetary defense conference hypothetical asteroid impact threat scenario

The 2025 Planetary Defense Conference (PDC) hypothetical asteroid impact threat exercise is being conducted in coordination with the United Nations-endorsed Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG), exercising SMPAG's processes for assessing space mission options and communicating to decision makers. Here, in this paper, we describe the work performed by our NASA-led team and present the results we contributed to the SMPAG effort for the exercise. Our NASA-led team assessed mission options for asteroid reconnaissance (flyby and rendezvous), deflection, and robust disruption using several viable techniques: kinetic impactors, ion beam deflection, and nuclear explosive devices. Our simulations and analyses considered how much change-in-velocity an asteroid can tolerate before fragmentation onset, and we worked towards establishing requirements for robustly disrupting an asteroid. Heuristics informed by the simulation results are incorporated into optimization of deflection and disruption mission campaign options. Finally, we make some observations about useful generalizations from these results with potential applicability to any planetary defense scenario.

Asteroid deflection

PLANETARY DEFENSE: FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PLANETARY SCIENCE AND ASTROBIOLOGY DECADAL SURVEY 2023 - 2032

The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine was chartered by the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD), with support from the National Science Foundation, to conduct a new decadal survey to develop a comprehensive science and mission strategy for planetary science (1). The survey was tasked to determine the current state of knowledge and to identify the most important scientific questions to be addressed in astrobiology and planetary science during the upcoming decade of 2023 - 2032. For the first time, the decadal survey also included and addressed the topic of planetary defense, now recognized as a key element of NASA’s planetary science activities under the direction of NASA’s SMD Planetary Defense Coordination Office. The topic of planetary defense was included in the decadal survey as a dedicated chapter, divided into five sections based on the framework from the U.S. National NEO Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan (2). These sections discussed: NEO Detection, Tracking, and Characterization NEO Modelling, Prediction, and Integration NEO Deflection and Disruption Missions International Cooperation on NEO Preparation NEO Impact Emergency Procedures and Action Protocols Content of these sections included identifying the activities, ground- and space-based assets, facilities, resources, technologies, and missions that should be considered to enable NEO preparedness over the next decade. Supporting inputs to this chapter involved contributions from submitted white papers authored by many members of the NEO science and planetary defense communities. In addition, a planetary defense rapid mission architecture study commissioned by the decadal survey small bodies panel and led by the Jet Propulsion Laboratory examined several different types of in-situ characterization and mitigation demonstration missions. All of this input contributed to the formulation of 42 findings and 11 recommendations that suggest a path forward for increasing our understanding of the NEO population and their associated physical characteristics, modelling the impact probabilities and hazard potential of these objects, and implementing plans to develop and test NEO impact mitigation capabilities. Including planetary defense in the decadal survey has helped sharpen the focus on this international issue and provided key inputs for stakeholders and decision makers to consider when developing future planetary defense-related activities. Such information is vital for developing a long-term integrated planetary defense capability able to protect humanity in the decades to come.

NEO Detection and Characterization

Asteroid Characterization Priorities for Planetary Defense

We propose a prioritized list of asteroid characterization needs for planetary defense. In particular, we consider the properties of asteroids that are of greatest interest for assessment of planetary defense options, including gravity tractors, kinetic impactors, and nuclear explosives. In addition, much of our discussion is relevant for impact assessments and subsequent emergency-response planning. Rather than intending this as a definitive answer, however, our purpose is to stimulate and focus disscussion regarding characterization needs for planetary defense, with a specific list as a starting point. A key theme is understanding the sensitivity of the outcome of an asteroid deflection or disruption effort to the asteroids physical properties.There is a range of previous work relevant to our topic, including some explicit discussions as well as many more that are implicitly relevant. We incorporate elements from such reports while extending them using our own experience and perspectives. After introducing our prioritized list, we provide further discussion on each element, with details on the relevance of each characteristic for modeling purposes, our rationale for the assigned priority, and examples of analyses that require improved characterization information. Our goal is to establish a framework that can be modified and adapted by the community for a variety of purposes, such as mission design and optimization, development of new measurement techniques, or prioritization of research efforts. The objective is to increase understanding and reduce uncertainties in the specific aspects of characterization that most benefit accurate assessments of practical techniques for planetary defense.

Miller, Paul

Robotic Missions to Small Bodies and Their Potential Contributions to Human Exploration and Planetary Defense

Introduction: Robotic missions to small bodies will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration and planetary defense. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. The science and technical data obtained from robotic precursor missions that investigate the surface and interior physical characteristics of an object will help identify the pertinent physical properties that will maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for both robotic assets and crew operating in close proximity to, or at the surface of, a small body. These data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps (SKGs) concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations. These data can also be applied for gaining an understanding of pertinent small body physical characteristics that would also be beneficial for formulating future impact mitigation procedures. Small Body Strategic Knowledge Gaps: For the past several years NASA has been interested in identifying the key SKGs related to future human destinations. These SKGs highlight the various unknowns and/or data gaps of targets that the science and engineering communities would like to have filled in prior to committing crews to explore the Solar System. An action team from the Small Bodies Assessment Group (SBAG) was formed specifically to identify the small body SKGs under the direction of the Human Exploration and Operations Missions Directorate (HEOMD), given NASA's recent interest in NEAs and the Martian moons as potential human destinations. The action team organized the SKGs into four broad themes: 1) Identify human mission targets; 2) Understand how to work on and interact with the small body surface; 3) Understand the small body environment and its potential risk/benefit to crew, systems, and operational assets; and 4) Understand the small body resource potential. Of these four SKG themes, the first three have significant overlap with planetary defense considerations. The data obtained from investigations of small body physical characteristics under these three themes can be directly applicable to planetary defense initiatives. Conclusions: Missions to investigate small bodies can address small body strategic knowledge gaps and contribute to the overall success for human exploration missions to asteroids and the Martian moons. In addition, such reconnaissance of small bodies can also provide a wealth of information relevant to the science and planetary defense of NEAs.

Abell, Paul A.

Common Infrastructure for Neo Scientific and Planetary Defense Missions

While defending the Earth against collisions with asteroids and comets has garnered increasing attention over the past few decades, our knowledge of the threats and methods of mitigation remain inadequate. There exists a considerable gap in knowledge regarding the size, composition, location, internal structure and formation of near earth asteroids and comets. Although estimates have been made, critical experiments have not yet been conducted on the effectiveness of various proposed mitigation techniques. Closing this knowledge gap is of interest to both the planetary defense and planetary science communities. Increased scientific knowledge of asteroid and comet composition and structure can confirm or advance current theories about the formation of the solar system. This proposal suggests a joint effort between these two communities to provide an economical architecture that supports multiple launches of characterization and mitigation payloads with minimal response time. The science community can use this architecture for characterization missions of opportunity when multiple scientific targets or targets of uncommon scientific value present themselves, while the planetary defense community would be able to fire characterization or mitigation payloads at targets that present a threat to the Earth. Both communities would benefit from testing potential mitigation techniques, which would reveal information on the internal structure of asteroids and comets. In return, the Earth would have the beginnings of a viable response system should an impact threat prove real in the near future.

Adams, Robert

NASA's Asteroid Redirect Mission: A Robotic Boulder Capture Option for Science, Human Exploration, Resource Utilization, and Planetary Defense

NASA is examining two options for the Asteroid Redirect Mission (ARM), which will return asteroid material to a Lunar Distant Retrograde Orbit (LDRO) using a robotic solar electric propulsion spacecraft, called the Asteroid Redirect Vehicle (ARV). Once the ARV places the asteroid material into the LDRO, a piloted mission will rendezvous and dock with the ARV. After docking, astronauts will conduct two extravehicular activities (EVAs) to inspect and sample the asteroid material before returning to Earth. One option involves capturing an entire small (~4 - 10 m diameter) near-Earth asteroid (NEA) inside a large inflatable bag. However, NASA is also examining another option that entails retrieving a boulder (~1 - 5 m) via robotic manipulators from the surface of a larger (~100+ m) pre-characterized NEA. The Robotic Boulder Capture (RBC) option can leverage robotic mission data to help ensure success by targeting previously (or soon to be) well- characterized NEAs. For example, the data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's (JAXA) Hayabusa mission has been utilized to develop detailed mission designs that assess options and risks associated with proximity and surface operations. Hayabusa's target NEA, Itokawa, has been identified as a valid target and is known to possess hundreds of appropriately sized boulders on its surface. Further robotic characterization of additional NEAs (e.g., Bennu and 1999 JU3) by NASA's OSIRIS REx and JAXA's Hayabusa 2 missions is planned to begin in 2018. This ARM option reduces mission risk and provides increased benefits for science, human exploration, resource utilization, and planetary defense. Science: The RBC option is an extremely large sample-return mission with the prospect of bringing back many tons of well-characterized asteroid material to the Earth-Moon system. The candidate boulder from the target NEA can be selected based on inputs from the world-wide science community, ensuring that the most scientifically interesting boulder be returned for subsequent sampling. In addition, the material surrounding the boulder can be collected from the surface, thus providing geological contextual information and additional samples of NEA regolith. The robotic manipulators used for capturing the boulder will ensure some of the surface remains undisturbed and that the boulder will retain its structural integrity, which will preserve the context of any samples collected by the astronauts and ensure a high level of science return. Human Exploration: Due to the coherent nature of the boulder that will be collected, entire encapsulation of the asteroid material is not required. This facilitates exploration and sample collection of the boulder by astronauts in a variety of ways. The total time for EVA during the crew portion of the mission is very limited. Current estimates are that each of the two EVAs will only last four hours. The RBC option will allow crew members to have good situational awareness of the work site and quickly identify sample sites of interest. In addition, the samples to be collected can be readily accessed without having to deal with removal of an encapsulation system, which adds extra complexity and risk for the astronauts during EVA. Resource Utilization: One of the most crucial aspects for resource utilization is the identification and collection of appropriate materials (e.g., volatiles, organics, metals, etc.) that contain components of interest. Prior characterization of NEAs is required in order to increase the likelihood that appropriate materials will be returned. Ground-based observations of small (<10 m) NEAs are challenging, but characterization efforts of larger targets have demonstrated that NEAs with volatiles and organics have been identified. Two potential targets for the RBC option (Bennu and 1999 JU3) have been previously identified as potentially rich in resources, and both are already targets of currently planned robotic missions that will characterize their physical properties in great detail. Planetary Defense: The RBC option involves interaction with a well- characterized potentially hazardoussized NEA that would enable NASA to conduct one or more planetary defense demonstrations. The primary method would use the collected boulder to augment the mass of the ARV and perform an Enhanced Gravity Tractor (EGT) demonstration on the NEA. Additionally, other approaches could be demonstrated during the mission, such as Ion Beam Deflection (IBD) and/or observation of a Kinetic Impactor (KI). The relative effectiveness of a slow push-pull method such as the EGT or IBD could be directly compared and contrasted with the results of the more energetic KI method on the target NEA. Conclusions: This boulder option for NASA's ARM can leverage knowledge of previously characterized NEAs from prior robotic missions, which provides more certainty of the target NEA's physical characteristics and reduces mission risk. This increases the return on investment for NASA's future activities with respect to human exploration, resource utilization, and planetary defense.

Abell, P.

Nuclear Devices for Planetary Defense

This paper summarizes the perspectives of panelists participating in the discussion of “Nuclear Devices for Planetary Defense” (PANEL-17) at the AIAA ASCEND conference in November 2020. The panelists’ backgrounds, and therefore their individual contributions below, cover the range of relevant disciplines: of course planetary defense threats and missions, but also space systems engineering, nuclear technologies, nuclear deterrence, and last but definitely not least space law. This approach helps illuminate the topic from multiple angles in order to encourage follow-on discussions among the communities of interest.

Jan Osburg

After DART: Using the first full-scale test of a kinetic impactor to inform a future planetary defense mission

NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is the first full-scale test of an asteroid deflection technology. Results from the hypervelocity kinetic impact and Earth-based observations, coupled with LICIACube and the later Hera mission, will result in measurement of the momentum transfer efficiency accurate to ~10% and characterization of the Didymos binary system. But DART is a single experiment; how could these results be used in a future planetary defense necessity involving a different asteroid? We examine what aspects of Dimorphos’s response to kinetic impact will be constrained by DART results; how these constraints will help refine knowledge of the physical properties of asteroidal materials and predictive power of impact simulations; what information about a potential Earth impactor could be acquired before a deflection effort; and how design of a deflection mission should be informed by this understanding. We generalize the momentum enhancement factor β, showing that a particular direction-specific β will be directly determined by the DART results, and that a related direction-specific β is a figure of merit for a kinetic impact mission. The DART β determination constrains the ejecta momentum vector, which, with hydrodynamic simulations, constrains the physical properties of Dimorphos’s near-surface. In a hypothetical planetary defense exigency, extrapolating these constraints to a newly discovered asteroid will require Earth-based observations and benefit from in-situ reconnaissance. We show representative predictions for momentum transfer based on different levels of reconnaissance and discuss strategic targeting to optimize the deflection and reduce the risk of a counterproductive deflection in the wrong direction.

Asteroids

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry/breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity’s four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity's four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.

Near-Earth Object Workshops to Assess Reconnaissance for Planetary Defense (NEO WARP)

Based on the third goal of the United States National Preparedness Strategy and Action Plan for Near-Earth Object Hazards and Planetary Defense to “develop technologies for NEO reconnaissance, deflection, and disruption missions” and specifically includes actions aimed at technology development for rapid-response NEO reconnaissance missions.

Planetary Defense

Hayabusa2#’s Exploration to Asteroids 2001 CC21 and 1998 KY26 Provides Key Insights Into Planetary Defense

The Hayabusa2 extended mission, nicknamed Hayabusa2# (SHARP: Small Hazardous Asteroid Reconnaissance Probe), started its mission after the Hayabusa2 spacecraft successfully returned in December 2020 to the Earth with Ryugu's samples and released the Sample Return Capsule containing it. Hayabusa2#’s key operations include flying by Near Earth Asteroid (98943) 2001 CC21 and rendezvousing with Near-Earth Asteroid 1998 KY26. The flyby is planned to be in 2026, and the rendezvous will be in 2031. Detailed investigations of these targets enable maturing key knowledge and technologies necessary for planetary defense. This paper reviews the characteristics of these targets and strategies to maximize outcomes from the mission. The spacecraft will fly by 2001 CC21 at a speed of ~5 km/s in 2026. Given constraints on the spacecraft condition, not designed to perform a flyby operation, operational plans require careful assessments to maximize the proximity observations of this asteroid. The ~700 m diameter asteroid's shape is currently unknown, though lightcurve observations suggest the asteroid is elongated. While the spin pole is not constrained well, the spin period is about 5.02 h with uncertainties of 0.01 h [1]. The taxonomic class may be L-type, which implies the presence of Calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAI), one of the primitive materials in the solar system [2], although there are studies suggesting an S-type. Therefore, this must be carefully examined. Photometric and spectroscopic observations will strongly constrain this asteroid’s properties. Our rendezvous target, 1998 KY26, is a ~30 m diameter roundish object spinning at a spin period of 10.7 min, which may represent one of the common groups of Near Earth Asteroids in size and composition that give a higher likelihood of threatening the Earth. Radar and optical observations reconstructed this asteroid's shape with high uncertainties and inferred that its surface composition might be similar to that of carbonaceous asteroids [3]. No spacecraft has ever visited such small bodies. Hayabusa2# visiting 1998 KY26 will be the first mission to document its geophysical properties, offering strong insights into what most frequent invaders look like [4].

Hayabusa2#

Ames Arc Jets in Support for Planetary Defense

Poster showing overview of the Arc Jet Complex, Past use for testing TPS materials for hypersonic entry, possible uses for planetary defense and understanding ablation of meteors at entry.

Fretter, Ernest