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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

An increase in marine heatwaves without significant changes in surface ocean temperature variability

Marine heatwaves (MHWs)—extremely warm, persistent sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies causing substantial ecological and economic consequences—have increased worldwide in recent decades. Concurrent increases in global temperatures suggest that climate change impacted MHW occurrences, beyond random changes arising from natural internal variability. Moreover, the long-term SST warming trend was not constant but instead had more rapid warming in recent decades. Here we show that this nonlinear trend can—on its own—appear to increase SST variance and hence MHW frequency. Using a Linear Inverse Model to separate climate change contributions to SST means and internal variability, both in observations and CMIP6 historical simulations, we find that most MHW increases resulted from regional mean climate trends that alone increased the probability of SSTs exceeding a MHW threshold. Our results suggest the need to carefully attribute global warming-induced changes in climate extremes, which may not always reflect underlying changes in variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Likely accelerated weakening of Atlantic overturning circulation emerges in optimal salinity fingerprint

The long-term response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to anthropogenic forcing has been difficult to detect from the short direct measurements available due to strong interdecadal variability. Here, we present observational and modeling evidence for a likely accelerated weakening of the AMOC since the 1980s under the combined forcing of anthropogenic greenhouse gases and aerosols. This likely accelerated AMOC weakening signal can be detected in the AMOC fingerprint of salinity pileup remotely in the South Atlantic, but not in the classic warming hole fingerprint locally in the North Atlantic, because the latter is contaminated by the “noise” of interdecadal variability. Our optimal salinity fingerprint retains much of the signal of the long-term AMOC trend response to anthropogenic forcing, while dynamically filtering out shorter climate variability. Given the ongoing anthropogenic forcing, our study indicates a potential further acceleration of AMOC weakening with associated climate impacts in the coming decades.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Global climate mode resonance due to rapidly intensifying El Niño-Southern Oscillation

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences climate variability globally, encompassing various other modes of variability, and thus represents a key predictable climate signal on seasonal timescales. Yet, its response to greenhouse warming remains uncertain, with models projecting a range of outcomes. Here, we demonstrate that in response to warming, a state-of-the-art high-resolution climate model simulates a rapid transition from a moderate-amplitude irregular regime, as observed in the current climate, to a highly regular oscillation with intensifying amplitude. This behaviour can be attributed to increasing air-sea feedbacks, which approach criticality in the second half of this century, and growing atmospheric noise. As ENSO intensifies in this model, it synchronizes with other prominent climate modes, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Indian Ocean Dipole, thereby imprinting its regular, predictable variability on them. If realized, this global climate mode resonance would have wide-ranging whiplash impacts on regional hydroclimates.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Faster recovery of North Atlantic tropical cyclone-induced cold wakes in recent decades

Intense winds associated with tropical cyclones (TCs) generate surface ocean cooling in their wakes, which can persist for several weeks in their aftermath. While multi-decadal observations of the sea surface have shown a substantial warming of the ocean, long-term changes in cold wake recovery time remain largely unknown. Here we find a trend toward faster recovery of TC cold wakes in the Atlantic main development region (MDR) since 2001. This is due primarily to a decrease in the strength of the North Atlantic trade winds, which reduces evaporative cooling of the ocean. The faster damping of TC cold wakes has led to a significant increase in the intensification of subsequent TCs that encounter lingering wakes from prior TCs, with a magnitude that is about 9% of that from long-term warming of the ocean. Finally, earth system model simulations indicate that the observed decrease in the cold wake recovery time will likely continue into the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Physical Oceanography in the Solar System and Beyond

A key controller of a planet’s rotational evolution, and hence habitability, is tidal dissipation, which on Earth occurs primarily in the oceans. As the discovery of habitable exoplanets is a primary objective of exoplanet research, it is imperative that we understand how “exo-oceans” behave. Despite this importance, little research has investigated the physical oceanography of worlds other than Earth. This oversight has occurred even though the Earth science community has studied tidal flows in Earth’s oceans for over a century and developed sophisticated models that exquisitely match satellite altimetry data, e.g. Here, we present a) models of tidal effects on exoplanets to motivate the problem, b) the application of a physical oceanography model to a putative ancient Venus ocean, and c) the application of that model to an ensemble of “alternative Earths” with a range of continental configurations and seafloor properties. We find that oceanic tidal dissipation can span 5 orders of magnitude, revealing that simulating exo-oceans with Earth science tools will provide fundamental insight into exoplanet evolution and habitability

Physical Oceanography↗
DOE OSTI2021

Labrador Sea freshening linked to Beaufort Gyre freshwater release

Abstract The Beaufort Gyre (BG), the largest Arctic Ocean freshwater reservoir, has drastically increased its liquid freshwater content by 40% in the past two decades. If released within a short period, the excess freshwater could potentially impact the large-scale ocean circulation by freshening the upper subpolar North Atlantic. Here, we track BG-sourced freshwater using passive tracers in a global ocean sea-ice model and show that this freshwater exited the Arctic mostly through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, rather than Fram Strait, during an historical release event in 1983–1995. The Labrador Sea is the most affected region in the subpolar North Atlantic, with a freshening of 0.2 psu on the western shelves and 0.4 psu in the Labrador Current. Given that the present BG freshwater content anomaly is twice the historical analog studied here, the impact of a future rapid release on Labrador Sea salinity could be significant, easily exceeding similar fluxes from Greenland meltwater.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Mid-Pliocene El Niño/Southern Oscillation Suppressed By Pacific Intertropical Convergence Zone Shift

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the dominant driver of year-to-year climate variability in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, impacts climate pattern across the globe. However, the response of the ENSO system to past and potential future temperature increases is not fully understood. Here we investigate ENSO variability in the warmer climate of the mid-Pliocene (~3.0–3.3 Ma), when surface temperatures were ~2–3 °C above modern values, in a large ensemble of climate models—the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project. We show that the ensemble consistently suggests a weakening of ENSO variability, with a mean reduction of 25% (±16%). We further show that shifts in the equatorial Pacific mean state cannot fully explain these changes. Instead, ENSO was suppressed by a series of off-equatorial processes triggered by a northward displacement of the Pacific intertropical convergence zone: weakened convective feedback and intensified Southern Hemisphere circulation, which inhibit various processes that initiate ENSO. The connection between the climatological intertropical convergence zone position and ENSO we find in the past is expected to operate in our warming world with important ramifications for ENSO variability.

Atmospheric dynamics↗
NASA NTRS1994

Numerical analysis and modeling of atmospheric phenomena

For the past 22 years Grant NGR 22-009-727 has been supporting research in the Center for Meteorology and Physical Oceanography (and its predecessors) in a wide variety of diagnostic and modeling studies of atmospheric and ocean phenomena. Professor Jule Charney was the initial Principal Investigator. Professor Peter Stone joined him as co-Principal Investigator in 1975 and became the sole Principal Investigator in 1981. During its lifetime the Grant has supported in whole or in part 11 Master's theses, 14 Ph.D. theses, and 45 papers published in refereed scientific journals. All of these theses and papers (with bibliographic references) are listed below. All but one of the theses were used to fulfill the requirements for MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) degrees and are available from the MIT libraries. The one exception is F. Chen's Ph.D. thesis which was for a Harvard degree and is available from the Harvard libraries. In addition to the work described in the citations listed below, the Grant has supported Research Assistant Amy Solomon during the past two years to carry out a study of how baroclinic adjustment is affected by vertical resolution, vertical temperature structure, and dissipation. Ms. Solomon plans to use this project for her Ph.D. thesis. Support for this project will continue under NASA Grant NAG 5-2490, 'The Factors Controlling Poleward Heat Transport in Climate Models.'

Stone, Peter H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Remote sensing for oceanography: Past, present, future

Oceanic dynamics was traditionally investigated by sampling from instruments in situ, yielding quantitative measurements that are intermittent in both space and time; the ocean is undersampled. The need to obtain proper sampling of the averaged quantities treated in analytical and numerical models is at present the most significant limitation on advances in physical oceanography. Within the past decade, many electromagnetic techniques for the study of the Earth and planets were applied to the study of the ocean. Now satellites promise nearly total coverage of the world's oceans using only a few days to a few weeks of observations. Both a review of the early and present techniques applied to satellite oceanography and a description of some future systems to be launched into orbit during the remainder of this century are presented. Both scientific and technologic capabilities are discussed.

Mcgoldrick, L. F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Application of TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry measurements to observational and modeling studies of the low-frequency upper ocean mass and heat circulation in the tropical Pacific

The main purpose of the proposed work is to describe the seasonal and interannual variability of the upper ocean mass and heat transport in the tropical Pacific and to understand the mechanisms responsible for these transports. This will be done through a combination of experimental and modeling approaches. Remotely sensed sea level and derived current, observed on the basin scale, will be compared, analyzed, and combined with routine and enhanced in situ measurements of thermal and current field, as well as with model solutions forced by satellite-derived estimates of momentum and heat fluxes. The practical scientific rationale for this work stems from the unique data sets collected by (or easily available to) the investigator's team and from the team members' complementary backgrounds (physical oceanography and meteorology) and expertise (in situ and satellite-observation analysis and numerical ocean modeling).

Picaut, Joel↗
DOE OSTI2024

Debunking common myths in coastal circulation modeling

Despite tremendous progress in algorithm development, computational efficiency and transition into operations over the past two decades, coastal modeling still lacks scientific rigor due to proliferation of many ‘gray’ areas related to various modeling choices made by modelers. Here, in this paper, we propose some guiding principles for the modeling community to improve performance, and we also debunk commonly held myths that make the coastal modeling lack rigor. Using our own experience in developing seamless cross-scale unstructured-grid based models for the past two decades, we describe in unprecedented detail the end-to-end modeling process (i.e., from digital elevation models (DEMs) to mesh generation to post analysis), and demonstrate that defensible modeling is within reach for any end user by following three guiding principles: (1) Bathymetry is a first order forcing in coastal domains and thus should be respected in all aspects of modeling; (2) Oceanographic processes are driven across multiple spatial scales and so models should enable appropriate resolution as needed; and (3) Model assessment should focus on physical processes. Through qualitative and quantitative model assessments, we demonstrate the fundamental role played by bathymetry/topography as embedded in DEMs in making the results defensible, which is unfortunately glossed over in many modeling studies. Focusing on process-based assessment simplifies the calibration process. A major conclusion of this work is that model developers and operators should maximize the scientific rigor for in silico oceanography by avoiding some common pitfalls that rely on error compensation at the expense of representation of physical system processes. We present some best practice procedures for defensive and trustworthy numerical modeling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2015

Sea Ice Outlook for September 2015 June Report - NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office

The recent decline in perennial sea ice cover in Arctic Ocean is a topic of enormous scientific interest and has relevance to a broad variety of scientific disciplines and human endeavors including biological and physical oceanography, atmospheric circulation, high latitude ecology, the sustainability of indigenous communities, commerce, and resource exploration. A credible seasonal prediction of sea ice extent would be of substantial use to many of the stakeholders in these fields and may also reveal details on the physical processes that result in the current trends in the ice cover. Forecasts are challenging due in part to limitations in the polar observing network, the large variability in the climate system, and an incomplete knowledge of the significant processes. Nevertheless it is a useful to understand the current capabilities of high latitude seasonal forecasting and identify areas where such forecasts may be improved. Since 2008 the Arctic Research Consortium of the United States (ARCUS) has conducted a seasonal forecasting contest in which the average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of September (the month of the annual extent minimum) is predicted from available forecasts in early June, July, and August. The competition is known as the Sea Ice Outlook (SIO) but recently came under the auspices of the Sea Ice Prediction Network (SIPN), and multi-agency funded project to evaluate the SIO. The forecasts are submitted based on modeling, statistical, and heuristic methods. Forecasts of Arctic sea ice extent from the GMAO are derived from seasonal prediction system of the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS 5) coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation model (AOGCM). The projections are made in order to understand the relative skill of the forecasting system and to determine the effects of future improvements to the system. This years prediction is for a September average Arctic ice extent of 5.030.41 million km2.

SIPN↗
NASA NTRS1977

Marine decision aids from space

The article discusses satellite observation of marine environments via microwave sensors and visible/infrared measurements. Specific applications include the monitoring of physical oceanography, weather and climate, coastal processes, ice processes, and resource use management. Four types of information delivery systems are identified: direct-to-user, regional/local user, global modeling user, and research user modes. Current developments in the marine information system include onboard correlation of synthetic aperture radar images at 10 to 100 m resolutions, and the extraction of wave, ship, iceberg or areal feature information from the image or signal before correlation.

Nagler, R. G.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Resource Occurrence and Productivity in Existing and Proposed Wind Energy Lease Areas on the Northeast US Shelf

States in the Northeast United States have the ambitious goal of producing more than 22 GW of offshore wind energy in the coming decades. The infrastructure associated with offshore wind energy development is expected to modify marine habitats and potentially alter the ecosystem services. Species distribution models were constructed for a group of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa resident in the Northeast US Continental Shelf marine ecosystem. These models were analyzed to provide baseline context for impact assessment of lease areas in the Middle Atlantic Bight designated for renewable wind energy installations. Using random forest machine learning, models based on occurrence and biomass were constructed for 93 species providing seasonal depictions of their habitat distributions. We developed a scoring index to characterize lease area habitat use for each species. Subsequently, groups of species were identified that reflect varying levels of lease area habitat use ranging across high, moderate, low, and no reliance on the lease area habitats. Among the species with high to moderate reliance were black sea bass ( Centropristis striata ), summer flounder ( Paralichthys dentatus ), and Atlantic menhaden ( Brevoortia tyrannus ), which are important fisheries species in the region. Potential for impact was characterized by the number of species with habitat dependencies associated with lease areas and these varied with a number of continuous gradients. Habitats that support high biomass were distributed more to the northeast, while high occupancy habitats appeared to be further from the coast. There was no obvious effect of the size of the lease area on the importance of associated habitats. Model results indicated that physical drivers and lower trophic level indicators might strongly control the habitat distribution of ecologically and commercially important species in the wind lease areas. Therefore, physical and biological oceanography on the continental shelf proximate to wind energy infrastructure development should be monitored for changes in water column structure and the productivity of phytoplankton and zooplankton and the effects of these changes on the trophic system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1986

Research program of the Geodynamics Branch

This report is the Fourth Annual Summary of the Research Program of the Geodynamics Branch. The branch is located within the Laboratory for Terrestrial Physics of the Space and Earth Sciences Directorate of the Goddard Space Flight Center. The research activities of the branch staff cover a broad spectrum of geoscience disciplines including: tectonophysics, space geodesy, geopotential field modeling, and dynamic oceanography. The NASA programs which are supported by the work described in this document include the Geodynamics and Ocean Programs, the Crustal Dynamics Project and the proposed Ocean Topography Experiment (TOPEX). The reports highlight the investigations conducted by the Geodynamics Branch staff during calendar year 1985. The individual papers are grouped into chapters on Crustal Movements and Solid Earth Dynamics, Gravity Field Modeling and Sensing Techniques, and Sea Surface Topography. Further information on the activities of the branch or the particular research efforts described herein can be obtained through the branch office or from individual staff members.

Kahn, W. D.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Tropical Atlantic wind field variations during Sequal Preliminary results

The Sequal (Seasonal Response of the Equatorial Atlantic) program has the objective to model correctly the dominant physical processes producing the seasonal redistribution of heat, mass, and salt in the upper ocean. The efforts of Sequal are greatly enhanced by the Focal (Francais Ocean et Climat dans l'Atlantique Equatorial) program. A knowledge of fields of wind stress over the tropical Atlantic is needed for the achievement of the Sequal objectives. The Sequal program makes use of the Fleet Numerical Oceanography Central (FNOC) 'Nogaps' wind fields as a first-guess field which will subsequently be modified. Nogaps is a global weather prediction model consisting of independent global wind and mass analysis submodels. The present investigation is concerned with some preliminary comparisons between Nogaps predictions and surface observations, taking into account monthly mean Nogaps fields and monthly means from a century-long ship report-based climatology.

Harrison, D. E.↗
DOE OSTI2024

MITgcm-AD v2: Open source tangent linear and adjoint modeling framework for the oceans and atmosphere enabled by the Automatic Differentiation tool Tapenade

The Massachusetts Institute of Technology General Circulation Model (MITgcm) is widely used by the climate science community to simulate planetary atmosphere and ocean circulations. A defining feature of the MITgcm is that it has been developed to be compatible with an algorithmic differentiation (AD) tool, TAF, enabling the generation of tangent-linear and adjoint models. These provide gradient information which enables dynamics-based sensitivity and attribution studies, state and parameter estimation, and rigorous uncertainty quantification. Importantly, gradient information is essential for computing comprehensive sensitivities and performing efficient large-scale data assimilation, ensuring that observations collected from satellites and in-situ measuring instruments can be effectively used to optimize a large uncertain control space. As a result, the MITgcm forms the dynamical core of a key data assimilation product employed by the physical oceanography research community: Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean (ECCO) state estimate. Although MITgcm and ECCO are used extensively within the research community, the AD tool TAF is proprietary and hence inaccessible to a large proportion of these users. The new version 2 (MITgcm-AD v2) framework introduced here is based on the source-to-source AD tool Tapenade, which has recently been open-sourced. Another feature of Tapenade is that it stores required variables by default (instead of recomputing them) which simplifies the implementation of efficient, AD-compatible code. The framework has been integrated with the MITgcm model’s main branch and is now freely available.

Adjoints↗