Biosurveillance of Thawing Permafrost: Modeling and Characterizing Permafrost Microbes to Prevent the Next Pandemic [Slides]
Abstract not provided.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
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Mapping Permafrost Variability and Degradation Using Seismic Surface Waves, Electrical Resistivity, and Temperature Sensing: A Case Study in Arctic Alaska
Subsurface processes significantly influence surface dynamics in permafrost regions, necessitating utilizing diverse geophysical methods to reliably constrain permafrost characteristics. This research uses multiple geophysical techniques to explore the spatial variability of permafrost in undisturbed tundra and its degradation in disturbed tundra in Utqiagvik, Alaska. Here, we integrate multiple quantitative techniques, including multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW), electrical resistivity tomography (ERT), and ground temperature sensing, to study heterogeneity in permafrost’s geophysical characteristics. MASW results reveal active layer shear wave velocities (V s ) between 240 and 370 m/s, and permafrost V s between 450 and 1,700 m/s, typically showing a low-high-low velocity pattern. Additionally, we find an inverse relationship between in situ V s and ground temperature measurements. The V s profiles along with electrical resistivity profiles reveal cryostructures such as cryopeg and ice-rich zones in the permafrost layer. The integrated results of MASW and ERT provide valuable information for characterizing permafrost heterogeneity and cryostructure. Corroboration of these geophysical observations with permafrost core samples’ stratigraphies and salinity measurements further validates these findings. This combination of geophysical and temperature sensing methods along with permafrost core sampling confirms a robust approach for assessing permafrost’s spatial variability in coastal environments. Our results also indicate that civil infrastructure systems such as gravel roads and pile foundations affect permafrost by thickening the active layer, lowering the V s , and reducing heterogeneity. We show how the resulting V s profiles can be used to estimate key parameters for designing buildings in permafrost regions and maintaining existing infrastructure in polar regions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Permafrost Formation in a Meandering River Floodplain
Abstract Permafrost influences 25% of land in the Northern Hemisphere, where it stabilizes the ground beneath communities and infrastructure and sequesters carbon. However, the coevolution of permafrost, river dynamics, and vegetation in Arctic environments remains poorly understood. As rivers meander, they erode the floodplain at cutbanks and build new land through bar deposition, creating sequences of landforms with distinct formation ages. Here we mapped these sequences along the Koyukuk River floodplain, Alaska, analyzing permafrost occurrence, and landform and vegetation types. We used radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) dating to develop a floodplain age map. Deposit ages ranged from modern to 10 ka, with more younger deposits near the modern channel. Permafrost rapidly reached 50% areal extent in all deposits older than 200 years then gradually increased up to ∼85% extent for deposits greater than 4 Kyr old. Permafrost extent correlated with increases in black spruce and wetland abundance, as well as increases in permafrost extent within wetland, and shrub and scrub vegetation classes. We developed an inverse model to constrain permafrost formation rate as a function of air temperature. Permafrost extent initially increased by ∼25% per century, in pace with vegetation succession, before decelerating to <10% per millennia as insulating overbank mud and moss slowly accumulated. Modern permafrost extent on the Koyukuk floodplain therefore reflects a dynamic balance between widespread, time‐varying permafrost formation and rapid, localized degradation due to cutbank erosion that might trigger a rapid loss of permafrost with climatic warming.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Impact of river channel lateral migration on microbial communities across a discontinuous permafrost floodplain
Permafrost soils store approximately twice the amount of carbon currently present in Earth’s atmosphere and are acutely impacted by climate change due to the polar amplification of increasing global temperature. Many organic-rich permafrost sediments are located on large river floodplains, where river channel migration periodically erodes and re-deposits the upper tens of meters of sediment. Channel migration exerts a first-order control on the geographic distribution of permafrost and floodplain stratigraphy and thus may affect microbial habitats. Here, to examine how river channel migration in discontinuous permafrost environments affects microbial community composition, we used amplicon sequencing of the 16S rRNA gene on sediment samples from floodplain cores and exposed riverbanks along the Koyukuk River, a large tributary of the Yukon River in west-central Alaska. Microbial communities are sensitive to permafrost thaw: communities found in deep samples thawed by the river closely resembled near-surface active layer communities in non-metric multidimensional scaling analyses but did not resemble floodplain permafrost communities at the same depth. Microbial communities also displayed lower diversity and evenness in permafrost than in both the active layer and permafrost-free point bars recently deposited by river channel migration. Taxonomic assignments based on 16S and quantitative PCR for the methyl-coenzyme M reductase functional gene demonstrated that methanogens and methanotrophs are abundant in older permafrost-bearing deposits, but not in younger, non-permafrost point bar deposits. The results suggested that river migration, which regulates the distribution of permafrost, also modulates the distribution of microbes potentially capable of producing and consuming methane on the Koyukuk River floodplain.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Recent streamflow trends across permafrost basins of North America
Introduction Climate change impacts, including changing temperatures, precipitation, and vegetation, are widely anticipated to cause major shifts to the permafrost with resulting impacts to hydro-ecosystems across the high latitudes of the globe. However, it is challenging to examine streamflow shifts in these regions owing to a paucity of data, discontinuity of records, and other issues related to data consistency and accuracy. Methods Recent trends for long-term periods (1990–2021, 1976–2021) in observed minimum, mean, and maximum seasonal and annual streamflow were analyzed for a range of watersheds across North America affected by varying degrees of permafrost coverage. Results Streamflow trend analysis revealed that areas affected by permafrost are changing variably over the periods in terms of maximum, mean, and minimum seasonal and annual streamflow. These changes indicate a significant shift occurring in the most recent 46 years towards increasing mean streamflow for the dominant (> 50%) permafrost systems. Meanwhile, minimum streamflow increases for all permafrost-dominant systems and many of the other permafrost-affected systems across the seasons and annual periods considered, with the greatest number of significant changes in streamflow over other metrics. Maximum streamflow is shifting variably with significant increases in the permafrost-dominant systems in winter and fall over longer time periods of analysis. Our analysis suggests that streamflow trends are driven by climate (precipitation, followed by temperature), while variables such as permafrost coverage only appear important in the most recent 32-year period. Discussion The increases in streamflow trends observed in this study are reflective of deepening active layers and thawing permafrost, indicating that the entire hydrograph is undergoing change within permafrost-dominant streamflow systems as the Arctic moves towards a warmer future under climate change. Despite the many challenges to understanding changing streamflow in cold regions, there are new products and datasets in development that are increasingly allowing researchers to better understand the patterns of change in Arctic and subarctic systems affected by permafrost, offering a range of new tools, which, along with continued observational records, may help in improved understanding of changing Arctic streamflow patterns.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
High–Resolution Maps of Near–Surface Permafrost for Three Watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska Derived From Machine Learning
Permafrost soils are a critical component of the global carbon cycle and are locally important because they regulate the hydrologic flux from uplands to rivers. Furthermore, degradation of permafrost soils causes land surface subsidence, damaging infrastructure that is crucial for local communities. Regional and hemispherical maps of permafrost are too coarse to resolve distributions at a scale relevant to assessments of infrastructure stability or to illuminate geomorphic impacts of permafrost thaw. Here we train machine learning models to generate meter–scale maps of near–surface permafrost for three watersheds in the discontinuous permafrost region. The models were trained using ground truth determinations of near–surface permafrost presence from measurements of soil temperature and electrical resistivity. We trained three classifiers: extremely randomized trees (ERTr), support vector machines (SVM), and an artificial neural network (ANN). Model uncertainty was determined using k–fold cross validation, and the modeled extents of near–surface permafrost were compared to the observed extents at each site. At–a–site near–surface permafrost distributions predicted by the ERTr produced the highest accuracy (70%–90%). However, the transferability of the ERTr to the sites outside of the training data set was poor, with accuracies ranging from 50% to 77%. The SVM and ANN models had lower accuracies for at–a–site prediction (70%–83%), yet they had greater accuracy when transferred to the non–training site (62%–78%). These models demonstrate the potential for integrating high–resolution spatial data and machine learning models to develop maps of near–surface permafrost extent at resolutions fine enough to assess infrastructure vulnerability and landscape morphology influenced by permafrost thaw.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Model-based analysis of solute transport and potential carbon mineralization in the active layer of a hillslope underlain by permafrost with seasonal variability and climate change
Permafrost carbon, stored in frozen organic matter across vast Arctic and sub-Arctic regions, represents a substantial and increasingly vulnerable carbon reservoir. As global temperatures rise, the accelerated thawing of permafrost releases greenhouse gases, exacerbating climate change. However, freshly thawed permafrost carbon may also experience lateral transport by groundwater flow to surface water recipients such as rivers and lakes, increasing the terrestrial-to-aquatic transfer of permafrost carbon. Mobilization and subsurface transport mechanisms are poorly understood and not accounted for in global climate models, leading to high uncertainties in the predictions of the permafrost carbon feedback. Here, we focus on a hillslope in Endalen Valley, Svalbard, as a representative example of a high-Arctic hillslope underlain by continuous permafrost. We analyze solute transport in the form of a non-reactive tracer representing dissolved organic carbon (DOC) using a physics-based numerical model with the objective to study governing cryotic and hydrodynamic transport mechanisms relevant for warming permafrost regions. We first analyze transport times for DOC pools at different locations within the active layer under present-day climatic conditions and proceed to study susceptibility for deeper ancient carbon release in the upper permafrost due to thaw under different warming scenarios. Results suggest that DOC in the active layer near the permafrost table experiences rapid lateral transport upon thaw due to saturated conditions and lateral flow, while DOC close to the ground surface experiences slower transport due to flow in unsaturated soil. Deeper permafrost carbon release exhibits vastly different transport behaviors depending on warming and thaw rate. Gradual warming leads to small fractions of DOC being mobilized every year, while the majority moves vertically through percolation and cryosuction. Abrupt thaw resulting from a single very warm year leads to faster lateral transport times, similar to active layer DOC released in saturated conditions. Lastly, we analyze the potential susceptibility of DOC to mineralization to CO 2 prior to export due to soil moisture and temperature conditions. We find that high liquid saturation during transport coincides with very low mineralization rates and potentially inhibits mineralization into CO 2 before export. Overall, the results highlight the importance of subsurface hydrologic and thermal conditions for the retention and lateral export of permafrost carbon by subsurface flow.
Hamm, Alexandra [Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)] (ORCID:↗
Machine learning predictions of near-surface permafrost extent at Teller 27, Teller 47, and the Kougarok 64 Hillslope sites on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska: Supporting Data
Geophysical surveys were conducted at the NGEE Arctic Teller mile marker 27 site, Teller mile marker 47 site, and Kougarok mile marker 64 site during the summers of 2018, 2019, and 2021. Additional data was collected at Teller mile marker 47 during September 2021 and August 2022. These surveys were used to identify locations of near-surface permafrost during the period of maximum seasonal thaw depth for ground truth data used in machine learning predictions of near-surface permafrost extent at each site. This dataset contains CSV files of ground truth observations of near-permafrost presence or absence for each site, where PF = 1 indicates permafrost presence and PF = 0 indicates permafrost absence. The dataset also includes 2 sets of binary rasters (WGS84 UTM zone 3) of permafrost extent for each site using 1) all of the training data and 2) the transferred model. For both sets of rasters, 0 = non-permafrost and 1 = permafrost. Included are 6 *.tif files and 5 *.csv files that include a data dictionary (dd.csv) and file-level metadata (flmd.csv). This dataset is in support of the paper "Machine learning-derived high-resolution maps of near-surface permafrost for three watersheds on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska" that is in review (May 2023). The Next-Generation Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
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Impacts of Thawing Permafrost on Residential Infrastructure: Results and Resources
Permafrost underlies approximately 20% of the landmass in the Northern Hemisphere. Inevitably human infrastructure has been and will be built on permafrost; however, due to climate change, the permafrost in many regions has begun to thaw. Using past reports and surveys as guidance, a survey was conducted to track the effects of permafrost thaw on housing infrastructure in the community of Point Lay, Alaska. The Cold Climate Housing Research Center, Inc. and the National Renewable Energy Lab conducted a literature review and interviews to document community issues from thawing permafrost and identify potential mitigation strategies for existing and new infrastructure. Researchers also identified strategies for individual homeowners to inspect their foundations for current issues or anticipate future ones. This poster will cover the results from the survey on the effects of permafrost thawing to Point Lay and include permafrost basics, common concerns from thawing permafrost, steps to identify permafrost sites and visible signs of permafrost degradation, and potential mitigation strategies that may be beneficial to Alaskans and increase resilience in the Arctic.
Alaska↗
Active Layer Depth and Permafrost Temperatures at the Teller 47 Field Site, Seward Peninsula, Alaska, 2022
With extreme climate warming in the Arctic, there is increasing focus on mapping permafrost stability and improving understanding of the impacts of thawing permafrost. Summer active layer depths and temperatures at the top of the permafrost were collected at the Teller 47 field site on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska to better understand permafrost thermal state in areas of discontinuous permafrost. Measurements were taken between August 14th and August 20th, 2022. Active layer depths were measured with a 120 cm thaw probe, and temperature measurements were taken with a SpotOn Temperature probe at the top of permafrost and at a maximum depth of XYZ, when no near-surface permafrost (within 120 cm of the surface) was present. Measurements were co-located with ground surface displacement measurements, which can be found in the associated dataset, NGA254. Precise location data were collected at each observation point using a GNSS RTK GPS unit. This dataset contains a *.csv file of permafrost temperature and active layer depths and a *.kml file of measurement locations.The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy’s Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy’s Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).
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Alpine permafrost could account for a quarter of thawed carbon based on Plio-Pleistocene paleoclimate analogue
Estimates of the permafrost-climate feedback vary in magnitude and sign, partly because permafrost carbon stability in warmer-than-present conditions is not well constrained. Here we use a Plio-Pleistocene lacustrine reconstruction of mean annual air temperature (MAAT) from the Tibetan Plateau, the largest alpine permafrost region on the Earth, to constrain past and future changes in permafrost carbon storage. Clumped isotope-temperatures (Δ 47 -T) indicate warmer MAAT (~1.2 °C) prior to 2.7 Ma, and support a permafrost-free environment on the northern Tibetan Plateau in a warmer-than-present climate. Δ 47 -T indicate ~8.1 °C cooling from 2.7 Ma, coincident with Northern Hemisphere glacial intensification. Combined with climate models and global permafrost distribution, these results indicate, under conditions similar to mid-Pliocene Warm period (3.3–3.0 Ma), ~60% of alpine permafrost containing ~85 petagrams of carbon may be vulnerable to thawing compared to ~20% of circumarctic permafrost. This estimate highlights ~25% of permafrost carbon and the permafrost-climate feedback could originate in alpine areas.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Climate-carbon feedback tradeoff between Arctic and alpine permafrost under warming
Whether greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from permafrost will trigger positive climate feedbacks under warming remains unknown. Here, we synthesized the response of growing season carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions to experimentally manipulated warming of ~2°C for permafrost in alpine and Arctic regions. Warming weakened the GHG sink of alpine permafrost, thereby increasing (13%) its global warming potential, but strengthened the GHG sink of Arctic permafrost and decreased (-10%) its global warming potential. When warming caused drying of alpine permafrost soils, the CO2 sink weakened but the CH4 sink increased. In contrast, warming of relatively wet Arctic permafrost increased the CO2 sink and CH4 source. Warming led to much stronger increases of the N2O source in alpine than Arctic permafrost. Although keeping additional warming below 2°C in permafrost regions can avoid the positive permafrost-climate feedback, measures are needed to maintain fragile carbon sink of alpine permafrost ecosystems.
Bao, Tao↗
Permafrost Carbon: Progress on Understanding Stocks and Fluxes Across Northern Terrestrial Ecosystems
Significant progress in permafrost carbon science made over the past decades include the identification of vast permafrost carbon stocks, the development of new pan-Arctic permafrost maps, an increase in terrestrial measurement sites for CO 2 and methane fluxes, and important factors affecting carbon cycling, including vegetation changes, periods of soil freezing and thawing, wildfire, and other disturbance events. Process-based modeling studies now include key elements of permafrost carbon cycling and advances in statistical modeling and inverse modeling enhance understanding of permafrost region C budgets. By combining existing data syntheses and model outputs, the permafrost region is likely a wetland methane source and small terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 sink with lower net CO 2 uptake toward higher latitudes, excluding wildfire emissions. For 2002–2014, the strongest CO2 sink was located in western Canada (median: -52 g C m -2 y -1 ) and smallest sinks in Alaska, Canadian tundra, and Siberian tundra (medians: -5 to -9 g C m -2 y -1 ). Eurasian regions had the largest median wetland methane fluxes (16–18 g CH4 m -2 y -1 ). Quantifying the regional scale carbon balance remains challenging because of high spatial and temporal variability and relatively low density of observations. More accurate permafrost region carbon fluxes require: (a) the development of better maps characterizing wetlands and dynamics of vegetation and disturbances, including abrupt permafrost thaw; (b) the establishment of new year-round CO 2 and methane flux sites in underrepresented areas; and (c) improved models that better represent important permafrost carbon cycle dynamics, including non-growing season emissions and disturbance effects.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Effects of Rapid Permafrost Thaw on CO2 and CH4 Fluxes in a Warmer and Wetter Future (Final Technical Report)
When ice-rich permafrost thaws, the ground subsides, creating thermokarst landscapes with dramatically different soil conditions and carbon fluxes than the original ecosystem. Roughly 20% of the northern permafrost region is susceptible to thermokarst formation (Olefeldt et al., 2016). Thermokarst formation is often rapid; tens of meters of permafrost can thaw within a few years (Schuur et al., 2015). In topographically low areas, thermokarst thaw converts boreal forest or tundra dry shrub ecosystems into sedge or Sphagnum moss wetlands (Olefeldt et al., 2016). While this type of landscape transformation releases carbon stored in permafrost into the atmosphere, on longer time scales, it facilitates sequestration of atmospheric carbon in plant biomass because permafrost thaw releases plant-available nutrients and wetlands are highly productive (M. C. Jones et al., 2017). However, wetlands also generate methane, which is a potent greenhouse gas. Methane emissions from thermokarst wetlands can cause these carbon-sequestering systems to have a positive global warming potential (Johansson et al., 2006; Turetsky et al., 2007). Our project objective was to improve Earth System and environmental predictability by advancing understanding of how CO 2 and CH 4 flux in permafrost thaw-induced wetlands (thermokarst) will change in the future as temperatures and climate conditions shift. Northern latitudes are expected to get warmer and wetter (IPCC 2013), and initiation and expansion of thermokarst thaw is expected to increase (Jorgenson et al. 2006; Zhang et al. 2017). Given these expected changes, our work sought to address three broad questions: Q1) How will northern latitude CO2 and CH4 emissions respond to warming temperatures? Q2) What is the impact of precipitation on permafrost thaw and carbon emissions? Q3) How do CO2 and CH4 emissions change as wetlands age after permafrost thaw? To answer these questions, we took both a modeling and measurement approach. Modeling work was conducted with DOE’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model (ELM). Empirical work took place in two primary locations. The first was a thermokarst site near Fairbanks, AK. The site is part of the Bonanza Creek Long Term Ecological Research program and is well instrumented (Neumann et al., 2019). The second was an isolated thawing permafrost wetland located on Kenai Peninsula — Brown’s Lake bog (B. M. Jones et al., 2016) — where the current climate is representative of what is expected at higher latitudes in the future. This site provides an ideal opportunity to test our hypotheses about how thermokarst wetland dynamics will respond to future environmental conditions. In addition, the project collaborated with researchers asking similar questions who were collecting measurements in high latitude post-glacial lakes located in collaborators tackling similar questions in Sweden (Stordalen Mire) (Emerson et al., 2021). Project efforts directly aligned with the stated goal of the funding opportunity announcement (FOA), which was “to improve the understanding and representation of terrestrial ecosystems in ways that advance Earth system model parameterizations and capabilities... thereby improving the quality of Earth and environmental model projections and providing the scientific foundation needed to support DOE’s science and energy missions.” Specifically, the project improved sophistication and accuracy of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), which is being developed primarily at DOE National Laboratories to support scientific research and decision-making.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Eroding Permafrost Coastlines Release Biodegradable Dissolved Organic Carbon to the Arctic Ocean
Coastal erosion mobilizes large quantities of organic matter (OM) to the Arctic Ocean where it may fuel greenhouse gas emissions and marine production. While the biodegradability of permafrost-derived dissolved organic carbon (DOC) has been extensively studied in inland soils and freshwaters, few studies have examined dissolved OM (DOM) leached from eroding coastal permafrost in seawater. To address this knowledge gap, we sampled three horizons from bluff exposures near Drew Point, Alaska: seasonally thawed active layer soils, permafrost containing Holocene terrestrial and/or lacustrine OM, and permafrost containing late-Pleistocene marine-derived OM. Samples were leached in seawater to compare DOC yields, DOM composition (chromophoric DOM, Fourier transform ion cyclotron resonance mass spectrometry), and biodegradable DOC (BDOC). Holocene terrestrial permafrost leached the most DOC compared to active layer soils and Pleistocene marine permafrost. However, DOC from Pleistocene marine permafrost was the most biodegradable (33 ± 6% over 90 days), followed by DOC from active layer soils (23 ± 5%) and Holocene terrestrial permafrost (14 ± 3%). Permafrost leachates contained relatively more aliphatic and peptide-like formulae, whereas active layer leachates contained relatively more aromatic formulae. BDOC was positively correlated with nitrogen-containing and aliphatic formulae, and negatively correlated with polyphenolic and condensed aromatic formulae. Using estimates of eroding OM, we scale our results to estimate DOC and BDOC inputs to the Alaska Beaufort Sea. While DOC inputs from coastal erosion are relatively small compared to rivers, our results suggest that erosion may be an important source of BDOC to the Beaufort Sea when river inputs are low.
Bristol, Emily M.↗
Observations and Machine-Learned Models of Near-Surface Permafrost along the Koyukuk River, Alaska, USA
This dataset contains GeoTIFs (raster) and GeoPackages (vector) that map observations of near-surface permafrost and not-permafrost from a field campaign conducted near the village of Huslia, AK along the Koyukuk River and its floodplain in July 2018. These data were collected as part of a campaign to understand if and how permafrost impacts riverbank erosion. This problem cannot be assessed without knowing where permafrost exists. Permafrost was observed via frost probing (to a maximum depth of one meter), coring (to a maximum depth of two meters) and bank/bar excavations. An additional boat survey was performed wherein expert (Joel Rowland) judgment assessed the presence or absence of distinctive permafrost features (e.g., overhanging tundra mats, thermoerosional niching, ice wedges, active drainage of ice melt from soils). This dataset also contains the input features and results of two machine learning models (random forest and convolutional neural network) that extrapolate the observations to the full floodplain that may be useful for building, testing, or validating other machine-learned permafrost models. Permafrost data are provided as georasters of the same shape and geovectors (polylines/polygons) and are all projected into EPSG:32605. All data can be visualized with a GIS (QGIS, ArcGIS, etc.).
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
We Must Stop Fossil Fuel Emissions to Protect Permafrost Ecosystems
Climate change is an existential threat to the vast global permafrost domain. The diverse human cultures, ecological communities, and biogeochemical cycles of this tenth of the planet depend on the persistence of frozen conditions. The complexity, immensity, and remoteness of permafrost ecosystems make it difficult to grasp how quickly things are changing and what can be done about it. Here, we summarize terrestrial and marine changes in the permafrost domain with an eye toward global policy. While many questions remain, we know that continued fossil fuel burning is incompatible with the continued existence of the permafrost domain as we know it. If we fail to protect permafrost ecosystems, the consequences for human rights, biosphere integrity, and global climate will be severe. The policy implications are clear: the faster we reduce human emissions and draw down atmospheric CO 2 , the more of the permafrost domain we can save. Emissions reduction targets must be strengthened and accompanied by support for local peoples to protect intact ecological communities and natural carbon sinks within the permafrost domain. Some proposed geoengineering interventions such as solar shading, surface albedo modification, and vegetation manipulations are unproven and may exacerbate environmental injustice without providing lasting protection. Conversely, astounding advances in renewable energy have reopened viable pathways to halve human greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 and effectively stop them well before 2050. We call on leaders, corporations, researchers, and citizens everywhere to acknowledge the global importance of the permafrost domain and work towards climate restoration and empowerment of Indigenous and immigrant communities in these regions.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Multi-Scale Temporal Patterns in Stream Biogeochemistry Indicate Linked Permafrost and Ecological Dynamics of Boreal Catchments
Temporal patterns in stream chemistry provide integrated signals describing the hydrological and ecological state of whole catchments. However, stream chemistry integrates multi-scale signals of processes occurring in both the catchment and stream. Deconvoluting these signals could identify mechanisms of solute transport and transformation and provide a basis for monitoring ecosystem change. Here, we applied trend analysis, wavelet decomposition, multivariate autoregressive state-space modeling, and analysis of concentration-discharge relationships to assess temporal patterns in high-frequency (15 min) stream chemistry from permafrost-influenced boreal catchments in Interior Alaska at diel, storm, and seasonal time scales. We compared catchments that varied in spatial extent of permafrost to identify characteristic biogeochemical signals. Catchments with higher spatial extents of permafrost were characterized by increasing nitrate concentration through the thaw season, an abrupt increase in nitrate and fluorescent dissolved organic matter (fDOM) and declining conductivity in late summer, and flushing of nitrate and fDOM during summer rainstorms. In contrast, these patterns were absent, of lower magnitude, or reversed in catchments with lower permafrost extent. Solute dynamics revealed a positive influence of permafrost on fDOM export and the role of shallow, seasonally dynamic flowpaths in delivering solutes from high-permafrost catchments to streams. Lower spatial extent of permafrost resulted in static delivery of nitrate and limited transport of fDOM to streams. Shifts in concentration-discharge relationships and seasonal trends in stream chemistry toward less temporally dynamic patterns might therefore indicate reorganized catchment hydrology and biogeochemistry due to permafrost thaw.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗