Results for “payback” | Engineering Papers

NASA NTRS1977

Solar breeder: Energy payback time for silicon photovoltaic systems

The energy expenditures of the prevailing manufacturing technology of terrestrial photovoltaic cells and panels were evaluated, including silicon reduction, silicon refinement, crystal growth, cell processing and panel building. Energy expenditures include direct energy, indirect energy, and energy in the form of equipment and overhead expenses. Payback times were development using a conventional solar cell as a test vehicle which allows for the comparison of its energy generating capability with the energies expended during the production process. It was found that the energy payback time for a typical solar panel produced by the prevailing technology is 6.4 years. Furthermore, this value drops to 3.8 years under more favorable conditions. Moreover, since the major energy use reductions in terrestrial manufacturing have occurred in cell processing, this payback time directly illustrates the areas where major future energy reductions can be made -- silicon refinement, crystal growth, and panel building.

Lindmayer, J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Better Climate Challenge Working Groups Non-Energy Benefits of Energy Projects-Improving Financial Payback

Energy efficiency is a key strategy recently identified by the United States Department of Energy as a pillar of industrial decarbonization. For manufacturing companies, improving energy efficiency will reduce money spent on energy utilities such as gas, electricity, and oil. Energy improvement projects also provide valuable benefits outside of simple operating cost reductions, such as reducing the carbon footprint, improving safety metrics and even enhancing quality and productivity. Unfortunately, energy efficiency projects have typically faced an adoption gap, even when they meet criteria such as payback period for capital projects. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs), also known as co-benefits, in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback periods for those projects as well as potentially improve the company's key performance metrics aligned with business strategies. There are no readily available tools that facilitate this, however, and the most used tools for energy audits address NEBs in a perfunctory way if at all. We integrated research for finding and quantifying non-energy benefits of energy efficiency projects into a commonly recognized continuous improvement practice, the Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control (DMAIC) Process. This process, along with software and supplemental materials, guides energy assessments to find and to quantify NEBs associated with energy conservation opportunities. Our aim is to deliver an easy to use and effective process and software tool and to maximize return on investment for energy efficiency projects as well as contribute to companies' strategic performance goals.

DMAIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Life-Cycle Analysis of Residential Windows Retrofits: Net GHG Emission Reduction and Payback Periods

Windows are a critical envelope component that plays an important role in the overall performance and environmental impact of a building life cycle. These implications can be embedded in the window lifecycle related to its design, manufacturing, raw materials and transportation, performance during the building’s use (operational), replacements, maintenance and end-of-life. Windows may impact 25% of the heating and cooling energy use, 10% of total building energy use and 45% of the envelope heat transfer (Harris 2022). The impacts of windows on the energy consumption of buildings have been extensively discussed, however, its embodied life-cycle impacts, such as greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and the trade-offs between the embodied and its operational emissions are less explored. Understanding the life cycle impacts of windows may subsidize decision making process and inform the development of emerging windows technologies. BTO’s Windows Program has played an important role to increase the adoption of emerging technologies as high-performance windows in the U.S. (Harris 2022) and to consider the GHG emission impacts of the those windows is an important aspect that can support the strategic objectives and the performance targets from the national blueprint for decarbonizing the buildings sector and to reduce the on-site emissions and embodied life cycle emissions from building materials and construction (US DOE 2024).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS1992

What's the bottom line payback for TQM?

The purpose of this article is to explore in detail TQM's impact on improving organization performance and how effective TQM strategies are designed and implemented. Both of these issues are addressed primarily by a discussion of a recent study of TQM efforts conducted by the U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO). The GAO study examines the impact of formal TQM improvement strategies on the performance of selected U.S. companies. The study grew out of a concern by a number of U.S. Congressmen that little is known about the impact of various quality-related efforts many companies have adopted to remain viable and profitable in an increasingly competitive world marketplace. Specifically, the study addresses: what has been the performance impact of adopting TQM improvement strategies, how has improved quality been achieved, and what lessons may be applicable to U.S. companies in general. A number of other studies are also used to expand upon the GAO data.

Usilaner, Brian↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Comparison Between Industrial Energy Efficiency Measures in Guatemala and the United States

Energy auditing has been cited as a key tool in closing the gap between the actual energy consumption in industrial facilities and what should be at an environmentally sustainable level. Several factors affect the likelihood that energy audits will be effective in closing that gap, and more analysis is needed to understand these factors, especially for developing nations. This study compares three energy efficiency measures (EEMs) frequently recommended in both the United States and Guatemala, namely, installing solar panels to generate electricity, installing higher-efficiency lighting, and upgrading to premium efficiency motors. The implementation of each of these EEMs contributes to more sustainable energy consumption, and each of these EEM’s payback periods is affected by capital costs, energy costs, and other local factors analyzed in this study. Projected payback periods for each EEM based on Guatemalan and U.S. capital cost and energy cost ranges are assessed via EEM-specific payback period calculations and compared to the energy audit data from each country. While lower capital costs incentivize EEM implementation and reduce payback periods, there is an interplay between energy cost and capital cost that impacts the trends in the U.S. and Guatemala. As in the case of the solar panel installation EEM, though Guatemalan companies pay ~110% more for electricity than U.S. companies, when Guatemalan capital costs are lower, payback periods are lower than in the U.S. Conversely, in cases where Guatemalan capital costs are higher—as for higher-efficiency lighting and motor installation—Guatemalan payback periods are roughly the same as those in the U.S. because of the higher Guatemalan energy costs.

Khosla, Radhika↗

NASA NTRS2024

Updates to NASA’s Break-in-Prebreathe Rules Due to Type II Decompression Sickness Risk Considerations

INTRODUCTION. Investigation of a central neurological decompression sickness (DCS) case during ground testing at Johnson Space Center identified a break-in-prebreathe (BIP) 13 minutes prior to depressurization as the leading credible cause despite applicable prebreathe payback rules being followed. Applicable NASA rules, for ground and flight, directed 2:1 payback of breaks up to 10 mins in duration, regardless of when a break occurs relative to depress. Full restart of prebreathe is directed following breaks > 10 min. The adequacy of NASA’s BIP rules was evaluated prior to resuming hypobaric ground testing or ISS extravehicular activities. METHODS. The following information sources were reviewed prior to formulating recommendations: i) Type II DCS case report and investigation findings; ii) documented rationale for existing flight rules, iii) consultations with subject matter experts involved in definition of existing flight rules (several of whom had since left NASA), iv) relevant published literature, v) model estimates of tissue on-gassing and off-gassing, and vi) NASA’s operational experience with late breaks in prebreathe. RESULTS. NASA’s nominal prebreathe protocols are validated via extensive ground testing to ensure DCS risk is reduced to within acceptable limits. Conversely, there exists a paucity of data, no validated models, and limited documentation regarding BIP risk for NASA prebreathe protocols. Flight rules implemented for shuttle and later ISS are based primarily on expert opinion and an assumption of symmetric on-gassing and off-gassing, which would make 2:1 payback a conservative mitigation for a BIP. Assumption of exponential gas kinetics makes late breaks higher risk, or require greater payback, than earlier breaks. Two BIPs have occurred using the current ISS prebreathe protocol, each of which was followed by greater than 2:1 payback and at least 59 minutes of 100% O2 pre-depress. No DCS cases have been reported during shuttle or ISS EVA operations. DISCUSSION. Interim changes were implemented to protect against late breaks during ground and flight prebreathes by ensuring negligible difference in conservatively modeled ppN2 pre-depress compared to nominal validated protocols. Additional documentation and literature review as well as chamber test planning are ongoing with the objective of further ground and flight rule updates and validation of a BIP risk model.

Prebreathe↗

NASA NTRS2024

Updates to NASA’s Break-in-Prebreathe Rules Due to Type II Decompression Sickness Risk Considerations

INTRODUCTION. Investigation of a central neurological decompression sickness (DCS) case during ground testing at Johnson Space Center identified a break-in-prebreathe (BIP) 13 minutes prior to depressurization as the leading credible cause despite applicable prebreathe payback rules being followed. Applicable NASA rules, for ground and flight, directed 2:1 payback of breaks up to 10 mins in duration, regardless of when a break occurs relative to depress. Full restart of prebreathe is directed following breaks > 10 min. The adequacy of NASA’s BIP rules was evaluated prior to resuming hypobaric ground testing or ISS extravehicular activities. METHODS. The following information sources were reviewed prior to formulating recommendations: i) Type II DCS case report and investigation findings; ii) documented rationale for existing flight rules, iii) consultations with subject matter experts involved in definition of existing flight rules (several of whom had since left NASA), iv) relevant published literature, v) model estimates of tissue on-gassing and off-gassing, and vi) NASA’s operational experience with late breaks in prebreathe. RESULTS. NASA’s nominal prebreathe protocols are validated via extensive ground testing to ensure DCS risk is reduced to within acceptable limits. Conversely, there exists a paucity of data, no validated models, and limited documentation regarding BIP risk for NASA prebreathe protocols. Flight rules implemented for shuttle and later ISS are based primarily on expert opinion and an assumption of symmetric on-gassing and off-gassing, which would make 2:1 payback a conservative mitigation for a BIP. Assumption of exponential gas kinetics makes late breaks higher risk, or require greater payback, than earlier breaks. Two BIPs have occurred using the current ISS prebreathe protocol, each of which was followed by greater than 2:1 payback and at least 59 minutes of 100% O2 pre-depress. No DCS cases have been reported during shuttle or ISS EVA operations. DISCUSSION. Interim changes were implemented to protect against late breaks during ground and flight prebreathes by ensuring negligible difference in conservatively modeled ppN2 pre-depress compared to nominal validated protocols. Additional documentation and literature review as well as chamber test planning are ongoing with the objective of further ground and flight rule updates and validation of a BIP risk model.

Prebreathe↗

DOE OSTI2026

Techno-Economic, Feasibility, and Life Cycle Analysis of Renewable Propane: 2025 Update

To clarify the current and future landscape for renewable propane (RP) production, this work evaluates the value proposition of recovering RP from existing and planned hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (HEFA) biorefineries and surveys emerging technologies under development or deployment. HEFA biorefineries co-produce a propane-rich fuel gas stream, normally used to meet HEFA process heat requirements, from which propane can be recovered and sold to create an additional revenue stream alongside liquid transportation fuels such as renewable diesel (RD) and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF). This report updates and extends a 2022 analysis of RP recovery from HEFA facilities by escalating capital and operating costs to 2024 prices, incorporating recent policy developments (including the Section 45Z Clean Fuel Production Credit), evaluating RP recovery for both RD- and SAF-focused HEFA facilities at two scales (3,000 and 75,000 barrels per day of feedstock), and quantifying the impact of RP recovery on HEFA liquid-fuel carbon intensity (CI) and associated tax credits using the 45ZCF-GREET model. For a 3,000 BPD RD-focused HEFA facility, approximately 3.5 million gallons per year (MGPY) of RP can be recovered; in this base case, the estimated payback period is 18 months based on the total installed cost of the RP recovery equipment and 36 months based on the total capital investment for the entire RP recovery project. The payback period is slightly shorter for the analogous SAF-focused configuration (approximately 4.3 MGPY RP). Sensitivity analysis shows that CAPEX magnitude, RP recovery plant scale, and CI-driven tax credit valuations are the dominant determinants of project viability. RP recovery may increase the CI of HEFA liquid fuels, which can reduce liquid-fuel tax credits (a key revenue stream for the HEFA biorefinery) and lengthen payback periods. However, RP recovery generally remains economically favorable across a wide range of plausible scenarios and market conditions. The report also summarizes emerging pathways that could expand future RP supply.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

NASA NTRS1991

Comparative economics of space resource utilization

Physical economic factors such as mass payback ratio, total payback ratio, and capital payback time are discussed and used to compare the economics of using resources from the Moon, Mars and its moons, and near Earth asteroids to serve certain near term markets such as propellant in low Earth orbit or launched mass reduction for lunar and Martian exploration. Methods for accounting for the time cost of money in simple figures of merit such as MPRs are explored and applied to comparisons such as those between lunar, Martian, and asteroidal resources. Methods for trading off capital and operating costs to compare schemes with substantially different capital to operating cost ratio are presented and discussed. Areas where further research or engineering would be extremely useful in reducing economic uncertainty are identified, as are areas where economic merit is highly sensitive to engineering performance - as well as areas where such sensitivity is surprisingly low.

Cutler, Andrew Hall↗

DOE OSTI2025

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Building the Business Case with JUSTIFI: Quantifying Multiple Benefits in the Automotive Industry

The Michigan State University Industrial Training and Assessment Center (MSU ITAC) conducted a pilot study at an automotive parts manufacturer in Michigan. The study identified energy-productivity enhancements through the application of the JUSTIFI software. Key recommendations included replacing six inefficient rooftop units (RTUs) with a new air rotational unit. By quantifying operational savings for this project, the expected payback period went from 6.6 years to 1.4 years. Additionally, the installation of variable frequency drives (VFDs) on condenser tower motors was suggested. By including all operational benefits, the payback period was reduced from 8.2 years to 1.3 years. This comprehensive analysis aims to bolster the manufacturer's goals of reducing energy while enhancing overall operational efficiency.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Long-term impact of electrification and retrofits of the U.S residential building in diverse locations

The U.S. buildings sector contributes 30% of operational carbon emissions, with residential buildings accounting for 56%. Reducing residential carbon emissions is crucial for achieving net-zero carbon goal. While many studies examine energy efficiency retrofit (EER) and electrification, few explore their long-term impacts across diverse climates and dynamic grid clean energy penetrations, as well as their economic effects on households. Here, this study proposes a method to assess how EER and electrification affect long-term decarbonization and economics across different climates, focusing on carbon emissions, energy burden (the percentage of household income spent on energy), and payback period in four locations: Tampa, San Diego, Denver, and Great Falls. The study also introduces the concept of implicit energy burden by considering investment costs. Results show that while electrification can reduce long-term emissions with increased clean energy penetration, it may not always achieve decarbonization due to mismatches between clean energy availability and demand. In cooling-dominant locations, electrification lowers energy burden and peak demand, but in heating-dominant locations, it increases energy burden to 8.24%, raises peak demand by 632.78%, and shifts it from summer to winter. After integrating investment costs, the implicit energy burden can reach 8.35% in cold climates. For already highly electrified buildings in Denver and Great Falls, the payback period of EER measures can be shortened by up to 48.98%. The study highlights a tradeoff between decarbonization and energy burden alleviation, showing that while EER measures can reduce the energy burden, they only achieve one-quarter of the carbon emission reduction of electrification.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Intelligent industrial demand response to increase grid flexibility and reliability: A review

The rapid transition toward renewable energy has introduced challenges in grid stability due to the intermittency of non-dispatchable sources like solar and wind. Industrial Demand Response (IDR) offers a promising, cost-effective solution that adjusts energy consumption patterns to align with supply, increases renewable utilization, and reduces costs. This review provides an updated analysis of IDR, sorting technologies into five categories: energy storage, scheduled energy usage, operational flexibility, on-site generation, and intelligent operations. Energy storage solutions, while requiring little flexibility, often have the longest payback periods. While slightly better, on-site generation also has longer payback periods, ranging from 5 to 20 years or more. Scheduled energy usage, operational flexibility, and intelligent operations allow significant peak reduction at lower capital costs but require greater flexibility. While 15–20 % peak reduction is within the range of all five categories, scheduled energy use and on-site energy generation are shown to have reductions of up to 70–80 % in select scenarios. Combining multiple IDR strategies from these five categories maximizes both financial and operational benefits. Synergistic approaches are shown to enhance grid stability while reducing costs. As the grid evolves, IDR will enable a more flexible, renewable-powered future that will benefit industrial facilities and the broader energy system.

Demand flexibility↗

DOE OSTI2025

IoT-based retrofit information diffusion in future smart communities

Community-scale building retrofits are not merely scaled-up versions of single-building retrofits. They involve complex challenges, such as reconciling individual interests with collective goals and managing the dynamic interplay between buildings through mechanisms like power grids and social connections. Internet of Things (IoT) connectivity holds the potential to leverage these interplays to balance individual and collective interests effectively in smart communities. One critical aspect of this interplay is information diffusion, which shapes how retrofit decisions spread among neighbors, influencing individual choices and ultimately impacting community-level retrofit outcomes. In other words, IoT-based smart devices automatically push tailored retrofit notifications to homeowners, which completely changes the format of information diffusion in the future. To investigate this influence by such information diffusion, the study used CityBES to simulate energy performance for different retrofits and applied an information diffusion model to analyze how decisions spread in a networked community of 192 buildings. The diffusion process was modeled on a weighted, directed network, capturing the dynamics of information flow and decision-making across 16 scenarios. Individual retrofit benefits were evaluated through payback years, while community-level retrofit outcomes were assessed using greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The results demonstrate that easier information diffusion among neighbors encourages households to prioritize retrofit measures that align with the majority’s optimal choices, even at the expense of individual financial benefits. In this case, such collective prioritization enhanced community-level retrofit performance, increasing GHG emission reductions by up to 29.4 %. However, this improvement came with trade-offs, as the average payback period for households extended by approximately 1.74 years. These findings highlight the potential of IoT-based information diffusion in future smart communities to coordinate individual interests with collective goals, ultimately accelerating community-level building retrofits.

Shu, Lei↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic assessment of residential PV system tariff policies in Jordan

This study assesses the economic and technical performance of four energy policy scenarios for Jordan's residential photovoltaic (PV) systems: net metering, net billing, zero-export with battery storage, and sell-all-buy-all. With the recent introduction of time-of-use (TOU) tariffs and policies addressing the “duck curve” effect, the research focuses on optimizing PV system sizing across different regulatory frameworks. A detailed techno-economic analysis evaluates these scenarios based on energy production, cost savings, payback periods, and energy self-sufficiency. The findings indicate that net metering and net billing offer the highest cost savings and the shortest payback periods (∼3 years). While the zero-export strategy with battery storage enhances energy self-sufficiency by up to 70%, it requires a higher upfront investment. The sell-all-buy-all scenario supports larger system sizes, achieving a low levelized cost of electricity (0.0696 USD/kWh) and a net present value of 619 USD. Additionally, the study identifies a critical feed-in tariff threshold of 0.055 USD/kWh, at which net billing becomes as financially attractive as net metering. Here, these insights offer valuable recommendations for policymakers to optimize net billing rates and TOU tariffs, promoting the expansion of Jordan's renewable energy sector.

Battery storage↗

DOE OSTI2025

Techno-economic analysis of sugarcane bagasse and straw conversion into cellulosic ethanol via consolidated bioprocessing

Cellulosic biofuels offer a sustainable alternative to fossil fuels and a means to mitigate climate change. Consolidated bioprocessing (CBP) featuring engineered thermophilic bacteria, combined with mechanical disruption during fermentation (cotreatment), has potential to lower production costs compared to featuring thermochemical pretreatment and added cellulase. A techno-economic analysis was conducted (230 million L ethanol/year) from sugarcane bagasse and straw at stand-alone facilities generating electricity from residues. Three scenarios were evaluated: Conventional, featuring hydrothermal pretreatment, fungal cellulase, and yeast fermentation (current commercial standard); Mid-term CBP, relying on bagasse solubilization without pretreatment or cotreatment; and Mature CBP, incorporating cotreatment but no pretreatment. Results for these scenarios in this order were: fixed capital investment (CapEx) $\$$589M, $\$$658M, and $\$$472M; net annual revenue (EBITDA) $\$$56M, $\$$96M, and $\$$94M; and minimum ethanol selling price 0.73, 0.61, and 0.48 US$\$$/L. Payback periods were 10.5, 6.9, and 5.1 years, while all scenarios showed <5 years at European prices for scales >100M L/year. Sensitivity and risk analysis highlighted ethanol price as the most critical variable. It is notable that Mid-term CBP had shorter payback times and better overall economic feasibility compared to Conventional. Our results underscore opportunities for research-driven innovation on low-cost cellulosic ethanol technologies in Brazil and elsewhere.

Consolidated bioprocessing↗

DOE OSTI2026

JUSTIFI: Software for Improving Performance Objectives via Energy Efficiency

With growing energy supply concerns and rising costs, energy efficiency is a critical component of industrial energy resilience and competitiveness by directly reducing energy operating costs. Energy efficiency projects in manufacturing also yield valuable benefits to other key metrics, such as improved quality, reduced maintenance costs, improved safety, decreased pollution, and enhanced productivity. However, it is difficult to receive approval for energy efficiency projects, so implementation rates are low, even when meeting capital project payback period criteria. The inclusion and quantification of non-energy benefits (NEBs) in the decision-making process for energy efficiency projects can improve the overall financial payback period while demonstrating a positive impact on the firm's key performance metrics and business strategy. Despite their significant financial and strategic value, NEBs are rarely factored into decision-making due to lack of tools to effectively identify and quantify them. Therefore, a comprehensive and integrative approach is needed for the rapidly evolving energy landscape. To address these challenges, through funding from U.S. Department of Energy, our new assessment methodology integrates common continuous improvement six sigma concepts, such as the DMAIC process, and a protocol of guiding questions, into energy efficiency assessments to identify NEBs. We have also developed open-source software, JUSTIFI, to guide users through this process, data collection, and quantification. It is designed to be used concurrently with DOE energy system analysis software suite, MEASUR. Our methodology and tools inform energy assessors, firm engineering, decision makers, and workforce seeking to increase energy resilience and to maximize benefits aligned with performance metrics.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1978

Engine component improvement: JT8D and JT9D performance improvements

A feasibility analysis screening method for predicting the airline acceptance of a proposed engine performance improvement modification was developed. Technical information derived from available test data and analytical models is used along with conceptual/preliminary designs to establish the predicted performance improvement, weight and installation characteristics, the cost for new production and retrofit, maintenance cost and qualitative characteristics of the performance improvement concepts being evaluated. These results are used to arrive at the payback period, which is the time required for an airline to recover the investment cost of concept implementation, and to predict the amount of fuel saved by a performance improvement concept. The assumptions used to calculate the payback period and fuel saved are discussed. A summary of the results when the screening method is applied is presented for several representative JT8D and JT9D performance improvement concepts. An example of the input information used to develop the summary results is shown.

Gaffin, W. O.↗