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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Joint state-parameter estimation for the reduced fracture model via the united filter

Here, in this paper, we introduce an effective United Filter method for jointly estimating the solution state and physical parameters in flow and transport problems within fractured porous media. Fluid flow and transport in fractured porous media are critical in subsurface hydrology, geophysics, and reservoir geomechanics. Reduced fracture models, which represent fractures as lower-dimensional interfaces, enable efficient multi-scale simulations. However, reduced fracture models also face accuracy challenges due to modeling errors and uncertainties in physical parameters such as permeability and fracture geometry. To address these challenges, we propose a United Filter method, which integrates the Ensemble Score Filter (EnSF) for state estimation with the Direct Filter for parameter estimation. EnSF, based on a score-based diffusion model framework, produces ensemble representations of the state distribution without deep learning. Meanwhile, the Direct Filter, a recursive Bayesian inference method, estimates parameters directly from state observations. The United Filter combines these methods iteratively: EnSF estimates are used to refine parameter values, which are then fed back to improve state estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrate that the United Filter method surpasses the state-of-the-art Augmented Ensemble Kalman Filter, delivering more accurate state and parameter estimation for reduced fracture models. This framework also provides a robust and efficient solution for PDE-constrained inverse problems with uncertainties and sparse observations.

Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

Karhunen–Loève deep learning method for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation

We evaluate the performance of the Karhunen-Loève Deep Neural Network (KL-DNN) framework for surrogate modeling and approximate Bayesian parameter estimation in partial differential equation models. In the surrogate model, the Karhunen-Loève (KL) expansions are used for the dimensionality reduction of the number of unknown parameters and variables, and a deep neural network is employed to relate the reduced space of parameters to that of the state variables. The KL-DNN surrogate model is used to formulate a maximum-a-posteriori-like least-squares problem, which is randomized to draw samples of the posterior distribution of the parameters. We test the proposed framework for a hypothetical unconfined aquifer via comparison with the forward MODFLOW and inverse PEST++ iterative ensemble smoother (IES) solutions as well as the state-of-the-art Fourier neural operator (FNO) and deep operator networks (DeepONets) operator learning surrogate models. Our results show that the KL-DNN surrogate model outperforms FNO and DeepONet for forward predictions. For solving inverse problems, the randomized algorithm provides the same or more accurate Bayesian predictions of the parameters than IES as evidenced by the higher log-predictive probability of both the estimated parameter field and the forecast hydraulic head. The posterior mean obtained from the randomized algorithm is closer to the reference parameter field than that obtained with FNO as the maximum a posteriori estimate.

Approximate Bayesian inference↗
DOE OSTI2025

String instability mitigation of adaptive cruise control without modifying control laws: trajectory shaper and parameter estimation

Vehicle automation technologies equip vehicles with adaptive cruise control (ACC) systems, which relieve driving fatigue. However, recent studies have shown that the current ACC systems are string-unstable (i.e., exacerbate traffic congestion). To achieve string stability, most existing studies directly modify the control algorithms of ACC systems. Alternatively, this study proposes a trajectory shaper (TS)-based method, which only modifies the trajectory information of the predecessor vehicle, so that the ego vehicle driven by a string-unstable ACC system leverages the modified trajectory information to achieve string stability. To devise the TS-based method, an offline-online parameter estimation method integrating batch optimization and an extended Kalman filter is applied to estimate the parameters of an ACC system. The proposed TS-based method is cost-effective during implementation, as it avoids modifying existing ACC control algorithms (which entails a complex analysis of control systems and parameter tuning). In conclusion, the effectiveness of the proposed TS-based method is validated through extensive numerical experiments.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Comment on "An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS''

The paper titled "An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS" by the ATLAS collaboration (arXiv:2412.01600v1 [hep-ex]) describes the implementation of neural simulation-based inference for a measurement analysis performed by ATLAS. The uncertainties in the analysis arising from the finiteness of the simulated datasets are estimated using a novel double-bootstrapping technique described in that work. In the present comment, it is claimed and demonstrated, using a toy example, that the double-bootstrapping technique does not actually capture the aforementioned uncertainties.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using an ontology-based framework

This study presents a methodology for automated model generation and parameter estimation of building energy models using semantic modeling and Bayesian estimation. Semantic modeling techniques are used to represent the system components and their interactions, facilitating the automatic generation of a simulation model from dynamic component models. The proposed approach is applied to a case study of a ventilation system where a simulation model is generated, calibrated, and assessed through different performance metrics. These metrics demonstrate the accuracy and reliability of both model point estimates and probabilistic prediction intervals across all model outputs. Overall, the proposed methodology offers a systematic and automated approach to model development and calibration in building energy systems, with potential applications in building performance analysis, monitoring, and optimization.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

An implementation of neural simulation-based inference for parameter estimation in ATLAS

Neural simulation-based inference (NSBI) is a powerful class of machine-learning-based methods for statistical inference that naturally handles high-dimensional parameter estimation without the need to bin data into low-dimensional summary histograms. Such methods are promising for a range of measurements, including at the Large Hadron Collider, where no single observable may be optimal to scan over the entire theoretical phase space under consideration, or where binning data into histograms could result in a loss of sensitivity. This work develops a NSBI framework for statistical inference, using neural networks to estimate probability density ratios, which enables the application to a full-scale analysis. It incorporates a large number of systematic uncertainties, quantifies the uncertainty due to the finite number of events in training samples, develops a method to construct confidence intervals, and demonstrates a series of intermediate diagnostic checks that can be performed to validate the robustness of the method. As an example, the power and feasibility of the method are assessed on simulated data for a simplified version of an off-shell Higgs boson couplings measurement in the four-lepton final states. This approach represents an extension to the standard statistical methodology used by the experiments at the Large Hadron Collider, and can benefit many physics analyses.

frequentist statistics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conformal duality of the nonlinear Schrödinger equation: Theory and applications to parameter estimation

The nonlinear Schrödinger equation (NLSE) in one spatial dimension has stationary solutions similar to those of the linear Schrödinger equation (LSE) as well as more exotic solutions such as solitary waves and quantum droplets. Here, we present a newly discovered conformal duality which unifies the stationary and time-dependent traveling-wave solutions of the one-dimensional cubic-quintic NLSE, the cubic NLSE and LSE. Any two systems that are classified by the same single number called the cross ratio are related by this symmetry. Notably, the conformal duality can also be adapted in Newtonian mechanics and serves as a powerful tool for investigating physical systems that otherwise cannot be directly accessed in experiments. Further, we show that the conformal symmetry is a valuable resource to substantially improve NLSE parameter estimation from noisy empirical data by introducing an optimization afterburner. The new method therefore has far reaching practical applications for nonlinear physical systems. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Reinhardt, David B. (ORCID:0009000409812838)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ensemble‐Based Spatially Distributed CLM5 Hydrological Parameter Estimation for the Continental United States

Abstract One of the major challenges in large‐domain hydrological modeling efforts lies in the estimation of spatially distributed hydrological parameters while simultaneously accounting for their associated uncertainties. Addressing this challenge is particularly difficult in ungauged locations. With growing societal demands for large‐scale streamflow projections to inform water resource management and long‐term planning, evaluating and constraining hydrological parameter uncertainty is increasingly vital. This study introduces a hybrid regionalization approach to enhance hydrological predictions of the Community Land Model version 5 (CLM5) across the Continental United States (CONUS), with a total of 50,629 1/8° grid cells. This hybrid method combines the strengths of two existing techniques: parameter regionalization and streamflow signature regionalization. It identifies ensemble behavioral parameters for each 1/8° grid cell across the CONUS domain, tailored to three distinct streamflow signatures focused on low flows, high flows, and annual water balance. Evaluating this hybrid method for 464 CAMELS (Catchment Attributes and Meteorology for Large‐sample Studies) basins demonstrates a significant improvement in CLM5 hydrological predictions, even in challenging arid regions. In CONUS applications, the derived spatially distributed parameter sets capture both spatial continuity and variation of parameters, highlighting their heterogeneous nature within specific regions. Overall, this hybrid regionalization approach offers a promising solution to the complex task of improving hydrological modeling over large domains for important hydrological applications.

CLM5↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatially and temporally resolved plasma parameter estimations of laser heated MagLIF relevant gas pipes at NIF

The ability to control laser pre-heat is an integral part of the inertial confinement fusion concept known as Magnetized Liner Inertial Fusion. This process is studied at the National Ignition Facility (NIF) where 4 of the 192 laser beams are propagated through a 1-cm long gas cell where they deposit >20 kJ of energy into the gaseous fuel via inverse bremsstrahlung absorption. This process ionizes the gas, producing a plasma that follows behind the laser front and expands over the radius of the cell. Emission from this plasma, as viewed by a gated x-ray detector, can be used to build spatially and temporally resolved estimations of the pre-heat plasma's density and temperature profiles. This can then be used to estimate the plasma pressure, internal energy, and radiation losses. Estimations show the evolution of the plasma in magnetized and unmagnetized gas cells filled with ambient temperature neopentane (C5H12) +1% Ar, as well as unmagnetized cryogenically cooled (32 K) deuterium +1% Ne filled targets. This analysis shows the effects of initial gas-fill density, composition, and axial magnetization on the time-dependent plasma parameters. Previously, these parameters at the NIF had not been experimentally characterized, and these estimations provided a potential new means of testing radiation magneto-hydrodynamic predictive capability models. Results in unmagnetized targets have strong agreement with simulations. However, in targets with a 19 T applied axial magnetic field, this method yields electron temperatures up to 100% hotter than those predicted by HYDRA codes.

Bremsstrahlung↗
DOE OSTI2025

Importance of Considering Near-Surface Attenuation in Earthquake Source Parameter Estimation: Insights from Kappa at a Dense Array in Oklahoma

ABSTRACT Separating earthquake source spectra from propagation effects is challenging. The propagation effect contains a site-dependent term related to the high attenuation of shallow sediments. Neglecting the site-dependent attenuation can cause large biases and scattering in the corner-frequency (fc) estimates, resulting in significant stress-drop deviations. In this study, we investigate shallow attenuation at the LArge-n Seismic Survey in Oklahoma (LASSO) and site-related biases and scattering in source parameter measurements due to simplified attenuation models. We measure the high-frequency spectral decay parameter kappa on the vertical acceleration spectra of regional earthquakes (125 km away). The site-dependent kappa (κ0,acc) suggests that attenuation increases rapidly at shallow depth and is highly site-dependent. 10%–75% of the attenuation is site-dependent for S waves and even larger for P waves. The quality factor for S waves (QS) ranges from 10 to 100 in the upper 400 m. QP for P waves is mostly below 10 within the same depth. The Quaternary sediments tend to be more attenuating (QS<30), but the Permian rocks also can have high attenuation. We demonstrate that using a non-site-dependent attenuation model in single-spectra fitting leads to large scattering in fc estimates among stations with apparent good fits. The apparent fc can significantly deviate when the range of site-dependent kappa is large or with a higher assumed source spectral fall-off rate n. The biases in apparent fc depend on site condition and distance; however, the correlation between fc and these factors might not be obvious, depending on model assumptions. An apparent increase of stress drop with magnitude in a previous study for local microearthquakes (1.3

Chang, Hilary↗
DOE OSTI2025

Pervaporative Dehydration of 2,3-Butanediol by Dense Poly(vinylidene fluoride) Hollow Fiber Membranes: Parameter Estimation, Process Design, and Technoeconomic Evaluation under Uncertainty

Pervaporation, combined with other separation processes, can effectively remove water from fermentation product streams, making it highly suitable for purifying alcohols like 2,3-butanediol (BDO). In this study, a dense poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) hollow fiber membrane module prototype was fabricated for BDO dehydration, achieving >0.2 LMH total flux and >95% BDO rejection. With a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, Bayesian inference was used to quantify the uncertainty of the permeance parameters. A membrane cascade model was developed to scale up a process that purifies a preconcentrated BDO feed (70 wt %) to high purity (90 wt %). Through propagation of the uncertainty of the parameters and sensitivity analyses of the process variables, a cascade design was recommended. Despite data and model limitations, the framework enabled a reliable system analysis and economic evaluation, validated through tight confidence intervals in key process metrics, establishing the foundation for future applications of Bayesian methods in membrane-based processes.

Animal feed↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cosmological parameter estimation with a joint-likelihood analysis of the cosmic microwave background and big bang nucleosynthesis

Here, we present a joint-likelihood analysis of big bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) and cosmic microwave background (CMB) data, consistently combining likelihoods and taking into account uncertainties in nuclear reaction rates for the first time. Bayesian inference is performed on the baryon abundance and the effective number of neutrino species, 𝑁 eff , using a CMB Boltzmann solver in combination with LINX , a new flexible and efficient BBN code. We marginalize over Planck nuisance parameters and nuclear rates to find 𝑁 eff =3.0⁢8$^{+0.15}_{−0.14}$, 2.9⁢4$^{+0.16}_{−0.15}$, or 2.96$^{+0.13}_{−0.14}$, for three separate reaction networks. This framework enables robust testing of the lambda cold dark matter paradigm and its variants with CMB and BBN data.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Laser powder bed fusion parameter estimation with k-NN

Abstract Laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF) is a technique within additive manufacturing that uses a high power density laser to build parts from fused powdered metal alloy. This technology is well equipped to produce complex parts with otherwise impossible features, such as hidden voids or lattice structures. Alongside capability, reliability and quality are key characteristics considered when choosing a manufacturing method, and these are gaining attention as this method becomes more prevalent in industry. One main indicator of a stable L-PBF process is consistent melt pool geometry, and the properties of which are likely to determine the quality of the part produced. As computing power and sensing technologies become more advanced, this melt pool geometry could be studied in real time. This work addresses the challenge by leveraging a k-nearest neighbor (k-NN) model to identify key features within melt pool imagery and predict the energy density. The k-NN model was trained on data provided by the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). Data preprocessing was performed on the images to extract features that were used in the k-NN model. This approach was used to accurately infer the energy density of unseen layers within the same part. The algorithm was subsequently tested with unique scan strategies and found to reasonably estimate the energy density of different parts. A fivefold cross validation found the algorithm to be consistently predicting the class of 91.4% of the in situ melt pool images.

Jung, Patrick (ORCID:0000000267890859)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Microwave-Assisted Plastic Upcycling: Dynamic Data Reconciliation, Parameter Estimation, and Kinetic Modeling

Microwave (MW)-assisted catalytic pyrolysis offers a promising pathway for efficient plastic upcycling. This work develops an integrated modeling framework combining dynamic data reconciliation, a temperature-dependent rate model, and a yield model to represent the time-varying production rate of components in MW-assisted LDPE pyrolysis conducted in a batch reactor. An Arrhenius-type rate model with a temperature-dependent reaction order is developed. A biexponential correlation is proposed for the yield of gaseous products that enables to capture the evolving product formation behavior during conversion. In the yield correlation, one term is used to represent the initial increase in yield, reflecting the rapid formation of intermediate or primary products at the early stages of the reaction when a larger fraction of the reactant remains available. As conversion progresses, the influence of this term gradually diminishes. The other term accounts for the subsequent decrease in the predicted yield, representing secondary reactions such as further cracking or coke formation that reduce the concentration of certain products at higher conversion. The model is found to accurately represent reconciled experimental flow rate profiles from an in-house MW-assisted catalytic batch reactor for major products, including ethylene, ethane, 1-butene, and benzene, across 250−350 °C. Ethylene remains the dominant product but decreases from about 41.95% at 250 °C to 30.14% at 350 °C, while heavier products increase significantly, with 1-butene rising to nearly 8.37% and benzene reaching 2.17% at intermediate temperatures. The model shows that the ethylene production rate can be maximized at around 270 °C. The models developed in this work can be utilized for process optimization, reactor design and scale-up of microwave-assisted plastic conversion technologies, and economic analysis.

Damahe, Harish [West Virginia Univ., Morgantown, W↗