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Results for “optimization trade-off”

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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

Semi-Analytical Hierarchical Bayesian Inference of Nonlinear Model Structure in Stochastic Dynamics: Applied to Compartmental Models of Infectious Diseases

A Bayesian computational framework for parsimonious inference in stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is presented. This framework enables the concurrent estimation of system states, time-varying parameters, time-invariant parameters, and the optimal sparsity structure of the model parameters. Because differential equation-based models are often simplified mechanistic or phenomenological representations, robust inference from noisy measurement data requires explicit treatment of model error and uncertainty. Model error and time-varying parameters can be represented as random processes, enabling inference while making minimal assumptions about the underlying sources of discrepancy and variability. Adopting stochastic differential equation representations affords the model significant flexibility, but can also render it susceptible to overfitting during statistical inversion, where the inferred model may track noise rather than the underlying signal. To alleviate the effects of overfitting and to enable the discovery of the optimal sparse representation of the time-invariant parameters, a Bayesian sparse learning algorithm is embedded within the framework. This sparse learning framework adopts an approximate hierarchical Bayesian setting defined by a series of semi-analytical expressions. The model structure inference framework is validated using a stochastic compartmental model for tracking and forecasting active cases of an infectious disease. Compartmental models describe population-level infectious disease dynamics through interactions among population fractions grouped by disease state. Mathematically, such models consist of a system of coupled ordinary differential equations. This example adopts an expressive compartmental model that includes multiple possible interactions between disease states, motivated by early uncertainty surrounding COVID-19 reinfection dynamics and their implications for long-term epidemic forecasting. The sparse learning exercise permits the inference of a priori unknown epidemiological dynamics from simulated public health data, discovering the nested compartmental model that optimizes the trade-off between average data-fit and model complexity. It is shown that inducing sparsity among the model parameters eliminates redundant interactions between compartments, equivalently revealing the optimal coupling structure between differential equations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Sampling-Based Bi-Fidelity Stochastic Trust Region Method for Stochastic Derivative-Free Optimization

Bi-fidelity stochastic optimization has gained increasing attention as an efficient approach to reduce computational costs by leveraging a low-fidelity (LF) model to optimize an expensive high-fidelity (HF) objective. In this paper, we propose ASTRO-BFDF, an adaptive sampling trust-region method specifically designed for unconstrained bi-fidelity stochastic derivative-free optimization problems. In ASTRO-BFDF, the LF function serves two purposes: (i) to identify better iterates for the HF function when the optimization process indicates a high correlation between them and (ii) to reduce the variance of the HF function estimates using bi-fidelity Monte Carlo (BFMC). The algorithm dynamically determines sample sizes while adaptively choosing between crude Monte Carlo and BFMC to balance the trade-off between optimization and sampling errors. We prove that the iterates generated by ASTRO-BFDF converge to a first-order stationary point almost surely. Additionally, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm through numerical experiments on synthetic benchmarks and simulation optimization problems involving discrete event systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Metabolic flux and resource balance in the oleaginous yeast Rhodotorula toruloides

The yeast Rhodotorula toruloides is a promising bioproduction organism due to its high lipid yields and ability to grow on cheap and abundant substrates. Quantitative, systems-level assessment of its metabolic activity is accordingly merited. Resource-balance analysis (RBA) models capture not only reaction stoichiometry but also enzyme requirements for catalysis, providing valuable tools for understanding metabolic trade-offs and optimizing metabolic engineering strategies. Here, in this work, we present systems-level measurements of R. toruloides metabolic flux based on isotope tracing and metabolic flux analysis. In combination with new proteomic measurements, these flux data are used to parameterize a genome-scale resource balance model rtRBA. We find that S. cerevisiae and R. toruloides grow at nearly indistinguishable rates using similar biosynthetic but dramatically different central metabolic programs. R. toruloides consumes one-fifth as much glucose, which it metabolizes primarily via the pentose phosphate pathway and TCA cycle unlike primarily glycolysis in S. cerevisiae . Overall, across these two divergent yeasts, protein abundances aligned more closely than metabolic flux. Resource balance modeling of these metabolic programs predicts superior theoretical yields but lower productivities in R. toruloides than S. cerevisiae for industrial chemicals, highlighting the value of rapid glucose uptake for productivity but respiratory metabolism for yields.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of 3D-Printed, Intensified Packings for Absorbers and Strippers in Solvent-Based CO 2 Capture

A potential technology for the CO 2 absorption process is utilizing intensified structured packing with embedded cooling/heating channels for continuous heat exchange, which can overcome limitations of discrete methods, such as discrete intercooling and centralized reboilers, to aid in reducing energy consumption and decreasing costs. This work investigates the modeling of intensified packing (IP) for the stripper tower, extending on previous work for the absorber, which distributes heat internally within the column, improving the thermodynamics for the solvent regeneration process. The model includes submodels for steam turbine extraction to produce steam at various qualities as well as a surrogate model for calculating steam enthalpy. A cost model for a plant-scale absorption capture process was developed, allowing for the design of the plant to be optimized, subject to minimizing capture cost using two different power plant flue gas sources. In this optimization, the placement of IP in both towers is optimized to balance the trade-off between enhanced heat transfer and reduced mass transfer volume. For natural gas combined cycle flue gas, the standard process configuration had a minimum cost of $\$$65.40/tonne CO 2 , and considering IP, the minimum capture cost is reduced to $\$$62.73/tonne, with utilization in the stripper column, which reduces yearly costs by up to $\$$2.67 MM/yr. Cooling the absorber through IP, or intercoolers, was only found to be beneficial at higher capture rates, with IP in both towers having a cost of capture of $\$$68.08/tonne at 99.9% capture, a reduction of $\$$12.64/tonne when using only intercoolers at the same capture rate. When capturing from pulverized-coal power plants, the minimum cost of capture when using IP in both towers is $\$$44.18/tonne (at 97% capture), while the standard configuration with and without intercoolers was $\$$45.69 and $\$$47.22 per tonne, respectively. This results in a reduction in yearly costs of $\$$16.98 MM/yr from the base-case configuration. At this higher CO 2 concentration, cooling in the absorber from the IP becomes extremely beneficial, reducing energy consumption by up to 6%.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizations of a Rectilinear Cooling Channel for a Future Muon Collider

Muon colliders require significant beam cooling to achieve the luminosity needed for high-energy physics experiments. Ionization cooling has emerged as a promising solution. This study optimizes a rectilinear muon cooling channel using a multi-objective optimization framework that integrates beam dynamics simulations. We present novel optimizations of final 6D emittance versus total system length as well as those confirming the theoretical trade-offs between transverse and longitudinal emittance. Our results optimizing all stages of the system simultaneously surpass performance benchmarks reported in the literature, demonstrating possible ways to improve the efficiency of such a cooling system.

Zhang, Aubrey [U. Chicago (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimizations of a Rectilinear Cooling Channel for a Future Muon Collider

Zhang, Aubrey [U. Chicago (main)]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Multidisciplinary Design, Analysis, and Optimization (MDO) for Co-Designed Transmission & Distribution Electric Grid Planning

This paper describes early experiences and example use cases applying multi-disciplinary design analysis and optimization (MDO) to the integrated design of power grids. Adapted from aerospace, MDO enables combining multiple existing tools into a coordinated optimization. Here we use MDO to simultaneously capture integrated transmission-distribution and investment-engineering trade-offs in an automated framework. Example use cases showcase prototype interactions among existing grid models using MDO and hint at the types of integrated analyses enabled by this approach. In addition, we share experiences and thoughts on grid-specific challenges and opportunities to help advance further work in this area.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimal filtering and generation of entangled photons for quantum applications in the presence of noise

Filtering is commonly used in quantum optics to reject noise photons, and also to enable interference between independent photons. However, filtering the joint spectrum of photon pairs can reduce the inherent coincidence probability or loss-independent heralding efficiency. Here we investigate filtering for multiphoton applications based on entanglement and interference (e.g., quantum teleportation). We multiplex C-band entangled photons and C-band classical communications into the same long-distance fibers, which enables scalable low-loss quantum networking but requires filtering of spontaneous Raman scattering noise from classical light. Using tunable-bandwidth filters, low-jitter detectors, and polarization filters, we distribute wavelength-degenerate time-bin entangled photons in the C band (1536.5 nm) over 25 km/25 km standard fibers (50 km) each carrying 10 Gbit/s C-band classical data signals. Narrow filtering enables milliwatt-level C-band power, which exceeds the power achieved by comparable studies by roughly an order of magnitude and could feasibly support terabit per second classical rates. We evaluate how performance depends on pump and filter bandwidths, multipair emission, filter shapes, loss, phase matching, and how quantum information is measured. We find a trade-off between reducing noise impact and increasing single-mode purity, and discuss mitigation methods toward optimal multiphoton applications. Importantly, these results apply to noise in free space and in quantum devices (sources, frequency converters, switches, detectors, etc.) and provide insight into filter-induced degradation of single-photon purity and rates even in noise-free environments.

Thomas, Jordan M. [Fermilab; Northwestern U.]↗

NASA NTRS2026

Mathematical Model of a Regenerative Fuel Cell for System Optimization

This thesis developed a system-level optimization model of a regenerative fuel cell (RFC) system for long-duration, off-world energy storage applications. Prior RFC design studies have typically been limited to reduced parameter sets and simplified constraints due to computational limitations relative to the number of relevant degrees of freedom. As a result, important nonlinear interactions between subsystems have not been fully captured. This work began to address that gap by developing a higher-fidelity, nonlinear optimization framework that incorporates a broader set of design variables and coupled constraints, enabling a multidimensional model that captures the coupled behavior of RFC subsystems and demonstrates the feasibility of applying optimization to such systems. An expanded system-level optimization approach was established that captures interactions between electrochemical performance, structural requirements, and storage design. This enabled a more comprehensive evaluation of trade-offs than conventional formulations. The model integrates four coupled subsystems: a fuel cell, an electrolyzer, reactant gas, and high-pressure storage tanks, and was formulated to accommodate a wide range of mission parameters, including operational time and required output power. It incorporates constraints on available solar array power, reactant mass balance between production and consumption, and pressure-dependent storage requirements. To enable reliable convergence, the optimization problem was reformulated to reduce dimensionality and improve numerical stability, with subsystem models organized for efficient evaluation. Problem dimensionality was reduced by consolidating lower-level design variables into higher-level representative quantities, and subsystem behavior was evaluated within the optimization loop. A multi-start initialization strategy was employed to mitigate sensitivity to local minima and improve solution quality, while nonlinear relationships were solved using robust numerical methods. The results showed that convergence was achieved across a range of required output power values. Specific energy reached a maximum at a critical mission power level, where the electrolyzer power matched the available solar input and operated near its voltage and current density limits. Beyond this point, further increases in required power resulted in less mass-efficient operation, increasing total system mass and reducing overall performance. The developed model represents an advancement in RFC system-level optimization by enabling analysis of a broader and more tightly coupled design space than previous considerations. While convergence behavior and computational cost remain challenges, the methods introduced improve solvability and allow inclusion of additional design variables with minimal loss of physical fidelity. However, the numerical results should not be interpreted as definitive design recommendations, as the model includes simplifying assumptions and omits several higher-order effects. Future work should extend this framework by incorporating additional subsystems and loss mechanisms, such as thermal management, parasitic power consumption, and reactant losses, to improve fidelity and ensure more representative design conclusions.

Electrochemistry↗

DOE OSTI2026

Optimization-based approaches to control of connected and automated vehicles: Principles, complexities, applications, challenges, and outlook

Safe and optimal motion control for connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) poses a fundamental optimization challenge at the intersection of system complexity, environmental uncertainty, and stringent real-time constraints. Existing surveys address this challenge in isolation – focusing either on specific control techniques or individual uncertainty sources – without providing a unified framework that characterizes the trade-offs among computational tractability, performance verifiability, and adaptive generalization across paradigms. This review addresses that gap by presenting a cohesive analytical framework concentrated on the decision-making and trajectory optimization layers of the CAV autonomy stack. We systematically analyze three major optimization paradigms – first-principles model-based optimization, data-driven methods, and hybrid synergistic architectures – evaluating each against four core complexity axes: problem formulation, constraint handling, optimality guarantees, and robustness. Key applications including platooning, trajectory planning, collision avoidance, and cooperative control are examined to reveal recurring methodological patterns and critical operational constraints that limit real-world performance. Our synthesis identifies verifiable hybrid architectures, incentive-aligned multi-agent cooperation, and hardware-algorithm co-design as the defining research frontiers, and distills a targeted agenda for developing CAV control systems that are simultaneously safe, computationally efficient, and deployable in the full complexity of real-world traffic environments.

Muzahid, Abu Jafar Md [University of Tennessee, Kn↗

DOE OSTI2026

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2026

Primary Heat Transport System Design Considerations for Xcimer Energy’s Athena Fusion Pilot Plant

Fusion energy promises a reliable, carbon-free source of power; however, significant challenges remain before it can be deployed as an economical energy source. In addition to achieving fusion conditions, power plants must operate under extreme temperatures, radiation, and mechanical loads while maintaining high efficiency and availability. These requirements place strong demands on engineering design and plant operation. This work focuses on the engineering challenges associated with balance of plant analysis for inertial fusion energy systems. In particular, this paper examines the design considerations for primary heat transfer systems in fusion pilot plants employing molten fluoride salt coolants, with particular emphasis on system layout optimization and the balance between competing design objectives using the Xcimer Energy Athena inertial pilot plant design as a case study. Through systematic analysis of candidate system configurations and parametric sensitivity studies, we identify key engineering trade-offs governing salt inventory, pumping power requirements, and operational flexibility. The analysis employs system-level modeling tools to explore the design space and establish relationships between geometric parameters and system performance metrics.

Greenwood, Scott [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000333480736)↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Battery Evaluation Profiles for X-57 and Future Urban Electric Aircraft

Battery energy density is one of the most critical design parameters for sizing all-electric aircraft, however it’s easily overestimated. Establishing the effective, usable energy density is confused by varying degrees of margin needed to account for structural and thermal management between different cell chemistry and pack designs. Therefore, a better methodology is needed to fairly compare emerging battery technologies for electric aircraft. Currently, there is a loss of critical information when vehicle trade studies are performed using “nominal” published cell-level performance metrics. Aircraft power demands rarely match these nominal power profiles, and aircraft designers lack the ability to accurately simulate the battery performance and temperature off-nominally unless the battery chemistry is well established. Conversely, battery suppliers have no generalized reference cases to publish more realistic performance metrics. This can lead to poor assumptions, such as aircraft studies assuming a fixed discharge efficiency of a battery, when in reality the usable energy in a pack is dependent on the power and thermal profile. Information needed to properly assess weight penalties for thermal management is also typically poorly characterized when assessing candidate batteries. This paper serves to better inform battery development, and similarly, provide aircraft designers with more realistic assumptions for applying knockdown margins in their designs. Detailed power and thermal performance estimates are provided, which provide a starting point for sizing power and thermal budgets using experimentally derived battery models. Results show that the X-57 battery-to-shaft efficiency is 77.3% for a particular optimized mission. Considering a 25% reserve on the battery capacity, this means that only roughly half of the original 55.3kWh ‘nominal’ pack energy can be converted to useful work during a mission. Further estimates on a clean-sheet VTOL optimization show an average 82.7% battery-to-shaft efficiency, using 98% peak efficiency inverters and 97.4% peak efficiency motors. Although higher battery efficiencies are possible, the resulting weight penalty negates improvement in vehicle performance. These trade-offs and resulting power profiles are provided as a starting point to better assess future battery designs.

Battery↗

DOE OSTI2026

A framework and tool for designing cost-effective, resilient, and circular net-zero supply chains under uncertainty with an application to multilayer plastic films

While 55% of Fortune 500 companies have committed to achieving net-zero emissions and/or zero-waste operations by 2035, only 2% are currently on track, revealing a critical gap between ambition and action. Designing supply chains that reduce both emissions and waste is a complex non-intuitive, multi-objective challenge, compounded by the high costs of new technologies and the need for resilient, profitable solutions. This paper aims to address this challenge by presenting a generic framework and multi-objective optimization formulation for designing cost-effective, circular, and resilient supply chains under uncertainty, implemented through a user-friendly decision-support tool with intuitive data visualization capabilities, enabling communication of results to both technical and non-technical stakeholders. We demonstrate the application of this framework in the context of multilayer plastic films (barrier films), which are widely used in food packaging and composite materials. The model quantifies trade-offs across three objectives: minimizing global warming potential, maximizing circularity, and minimizing cost. A key contribution of this work is the explicit modeling of technological resilience, the ability of supply chains to maintain function under disruption. In the cost-minimization case, the resilience constraint makes the design approximately three times more expensive in the short-term metric, but shifts the system from relying on a single recovery pathway to a portfolio of four recovery pathways, improving the robustness of the optimization solution under uncertainty. Lastly, we introduce TranZero, a decision-support tool that integrates material flow analysis, hotspot identification, and optimization-based scenario planning to support net-zero and circularity decisions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Flow and Mass Transfer within Hollow Fiber Packaging for Gas Separation

Hollow fiber membrane modules are used for gas purification by their selective permeation properties. Intensification of the process to minimize the retentate loss and gas pressure involves optimization at various scales. In this work, we outline a numerical investigation of the gas separation performance at the scale of fiber bundles and its impact on module performance. Flow channeling and anisotropy govern the mass-transfer coefficient in axial and cross-flow configurations. These effects are quantified in terms of a permeability tensor or an anisotropy ratio and the effective mass-transfer coefficient or the Sherwood number. The results show a trade-off between purification and recovery. While smaller fibers offer a large specific surface area to enable high purification, it comes at a huge penalty on the separation performance due to reduced penetration within bundles. Optimum performance indicators are emphasized.

Fibers↗

DOE OSTI2024

A holistic platform for accelerating sorbent-based carbon capture

Abstract Reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions urgently requires the large-scale deployment of carbon-capture technologies. These technologies must separate CO 2 from various sources and deliver it to different sinks 1,2 . The quest for optimal solutions for specific source–sink pairs is a complex, multi-objective challenge involving multiple stakeholders and depends on social, economic and regional contexts. Currently, research follows a sequential approach: chemists focus on materials design 3 and engineers on optimizing processes 4,5 , which are then operated at a scale that impacts the economy and the environment. Assessing these impacts, such as the greenhouse gas emissions over the plant’s lifetime, is typically one of the final steps 6 . Here we introduce the PrISMa (Process-Informed design of tailor-made Sorbent Materials) platform, which integrates materials, process design, techno-economics and life-cycle assessment. We compare more than 60 case studies capturing CO 2 from various sources in 5 global regions using different technologies. The platform simultaneously informs various stakeholders about the cost-effectiveness of technologies, process configurations and locations, reveals the molecular characteristics of the top-performing sorbents, and provides insights on environmental impacts, co-benefits and trade-offs. By uniting stakeholders at an early research stage, PrISMa accelerates carbon-capture technology development during this critical period as we aim for a net-zero world.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Selective designer hydrolysates from Miscanthus bioenergy crop for sustainable utilization

Designer enzymatic hydrolysates deliver targeted, optimized fermentable sugars while reducing the formation of inhibitory by-products. Herein, five distinct enzymatic hydrolysates (EH) were generated from Miscanthus biomass using alkaline-ethanol fractionation and hydrothermal-mechanical refining (HMR) pretreatment approaches. Noticeably, alkali-ethanol fractionated hemicellulose A (HMA) and hemicellulose B (HMB) hydrolysis resulted in xylose-rich enzymatic hydrolysates with 104.8 ± 5.6 g L −1 and 173.4 ± 4.6 g L −1 xylose, respectively. All five hydrolysates encompassing varied carbon to nitrogen ratios were evaluated for lipid production using an engineered oleaginous yeast, R. toruloides 880-ADS. Microbial fermentation of xylose-rich hydrolysates, viz. HMR-EH2, HMA-EH, and HMB-EH, resulted in lipid yields ranging from 0.05 to 0.12 g g −1 sugar. Compositional and 2D NMR analyses revealed that HMA-EH residues are highly lignin-enriched while preserving the non-condensed structure conducive to valorization. Overall, the findings highlighted a novel, selective trade-off approach for maximizing lipid titers from designer hydrolysates, corroborating complete resource recovery for establishing integrated biorefineries.

Singh, Shuchi [University of Illinois at Urbana-Ch↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anticipating Optical Availability in Hybrid RF/FSO Links Using RF Beacons and Deep Learning

Radiofrequency (RF) communications offer reliable but low data rates and energy-inefficient satellite links, while free-space optical (FSO) promises high bandwidth but struggles with disturbances imposed by atmospheric effects. A hybrid RF/FSO architecture aims to achieve optimal reliability along with high data rates for space communications. Accurate prediction of dynamic ground-to-satellite FSO link availability is critical for routing decisions in low-earth orbit constellations. In this paper, we propose a system leveraging ubiquitous RF links to proactively forecast FSO link degradation prior to signal drops below threshold levels. This enables pre-calculation of rerouting to maximally maintain high data rate FSO links throughout the duration of weather effects. We implement a supervised learning model to anticipate FSO attenuation based on the analysis of RF patterns. Through the simulation of a dense lower earth orbit (LEO) satellite constellation, we demonstrate the efficacy of our approach in a simulated satellite network, highlighting the balance between predictive accuracy and prediction duration. An emulated cloud attenuation model is proposed to provide insight into the temporal profiles of RF signals and their correlation to FSO channel dynamics. Our investigation sheds light on the trade-offs between prediction horizon and accuracy arising from RF beacon numbers and proximity.

FSO availability↗