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Simulating Smoking Behaviors Based on Cognition-Determined Opinion-Based System Dynamics.
Abstract not provided.
Opinion: Making the Most of Colour Rendition Research
After decades of debate, new methods for characterizing color rendition have been formalized, providing an improved system of tools to aid technology developers and lighting specifiers. Solid-state lighting, previously burdened by legacy measures based on outdated science, is positioned to take advantage of these new tools to provide tailored, efficient lighting that better meets the needs of specific architectural lighting applications. This transition requires new guidance, however, presenting an opportunity for researchers. There are several key methodological considerations specific to experiments investigating color rendition that will help build a base of guidance that can be widely applied. The importance of these ideas mostly stems from new knowledge gained in the last five years, but their origins date back much further. 1.The spectral power distribution must be adequately varied to stress the measure(s) of color rendition being evaluated. Often, this means varying the gamut shape—the pattern of shift across different hues—to probe weaknesses of hue-averaged characterizations, avoiding misleading conclusions resulting from limited variation in the stimuli. 2.Evaluating the role of chromaticity on color quality evaluations requires careful accommodation of chromatic adaptation to prevent a centering bias. Asking for delayed responses may be insufficient if chromaticity changes are apparent to participants, just as side-by-side viewing of different chromaticities may not produce results that can be reliably applied in the field. It is also critical that color rendition and chromaticity conditions are varied independently. 3.The stimulus being viewed is the interaction of light and objects’ spectral reflectances. This interaction should be quantified in order to assess how derived guidelines will apply measures using standardized color sample sets. Although light source characterizations are typically used to model responses, the objects and their presentation may strongly influence evaluations. 4.Context is important. Many factors—some investigated, others hypothesized—can influence subjective evaluations of color quality, including illuminance level, type of scene, object familiarity, color composition, viewing duration, and viewer traits. Although their influence on research results is unavoidable, the effects of these contextual factors must be carefully considered in developing guidance. Appropriate experimental design can often mitigate negative consequences arising from these considerations. At a minimum, it is crucial to understand how each of these considerations can influence experimental outcomes, as well as the interpretation and application of the results in practice. Consulting other experts prior to conducting an experiment can help ensure appropriate, up-to-date research methods will be used, so that the results will be novel and useful—and not rejected during peer review. There is an interesting feedback loop: technology development provides new research tools, which allow for refined research methods and new results that lead to more technology development. It is time to make a concerted, collective effort to improve color rendition research so that the full potential of solid-state lighting and new characterization methods can be realized, ensuring that high-efficiency, high-utility, high-appeal lighting systems become standard.
Bounded-Confidence Models of Multidimensional Opinions with Topic-Weighted Discordance
People’s opinions on a wide range of topics often evolve over time through their interactions with others. Models of opinion dynamics primarily focus on one-dimensional opinions, which represent opinions on one topic. However, opinions on various topics are rarely isolated; instead, they can be interdependent and correlated. In a bounded-confidence model (BCM) of opinion dynamics, agents are receptive to each other only if their opinions are sufficiently similar. Here, we extend classical agent-based BCMs—namely, the Hegselmann–Krause BCM, which has synchronous interactions, and the Deffuant–Weisbuch BCM, which has asynchronous interactions—to a multidimensional setting, in which the opinions are multidimensional vectors representing opinions of different topics and opinions on different topics are interdependent. To measure opinion differences between agents, we introduce topic-weighted discordance functions that account for opinion differences in all topics. We define regions of receptiveness for our models, and we use them to characterize the steady-state opinion clusters and provide an analytical approach to compute these regions. In addition, we numerically simulate our models on various networks with initial opinions drawn from a variety of distributions. When initial opinions are correlated across different topics, our topic-weighted BCMs yield significantly different results in both transient and steady states compared to baseline models, where the dynamics of each opinion topic are independent.
Assessment of online public opinions on large infrastructure projects: A case study of the Three Gorges Project in China
Public opinion becomes increasingly salient in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects which have significant impacts to the environment and the society. However, traditional survey methods are inefficient in collection and assessment of the public opinion due to its large quantity and diversity. Recently, Social media platforms provide a rich data source for monitoring and assessing the public opinion on controversial infrastructure projects. This paper proposes an assessment framework to transform unstructured online public opinions on large infrastructure projects into sentimental and topical indicators for enhancing practices of ex post evaluation and public participation. The framework uses web crawlers to collect online comments related to a large infrastructure project and employs two natural language processing technologies, including sentiment analysis and topic modeling, with spatio-temporal analysis, to transform these comments into indicators for assessing online public opinion on the project. Based on the framework, we investigate the online public opinion of the Three Gorges Project on China's largest microblogging site, namely, Weibo. Assessment results present spatial-temporal distributions of post intensity and sentiment polarity, reveals major topics with different sentiments and summarizes managerial implications, for ex post evaluation of the world's largest hydropower project. The proposed assessment framework is expected to be widely applied as a methodological strategy to assess public opinion in the ex post evaluation stage of large infrastructure projects. - Highlights: • We developed a framework to assess online public opinion on large infrastructure projects with environmental impacts. • Indicators were built to assess post intensity, sentiment polarity and major topics of the public opinion. • We took the Three Gorges Project (TGP) as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness proposed framework. • We revealed spatial-temporal patterns of post intensity and sentiment polarity on the TGP. • We drew implications for a more in-depth understanding of the public opinion on large infrastructure projects.
Detection of recurrent pancreatic cancer: value of second-opinion interpretations of cross-sectional images by subspecialized radiologists
Purpose: To investigate the value of second-opinion interpretation of cross-sectional images by subspecialized radiologists to diagnose recurrent pancreatic cancer after surgery. Methods: The IRB approved and issued a waiver of informed consent for this retrospective study. Initial and second-opinion interpretations of 69 consecutive submitted MRI or CT follow-up after pancreatic cancer resection between January 1, 2009 and December 31, 2013 were evaluated by one oncologic imaging radiologist, who was blinded to patient’s clinical details and histopathologic data. The reviewer was asked to classify each interpretation in reference of the diagnosis of PDAC recurrence. It was also recorded if the radiologic interpretation recommended additional imaging studies to confirm recurrence. The diagnosis of recurrence was determined by pathology when available, otherwise by imaging follow-up, clinical, or laboratory assessments. Cohen’s kappa statistic was used to assess agreement between initial and second-opinion interpretations. The differences between the initial and second-opinion interpretations were examined using McNemar test or Bowker’s test of symmetry. Results: Disagreement on recurrence between the initial report and the second-opinion interpretation was observed in 32% of cases (22/69; k = 0.44). Second-opinion interpretations had a higher sensitivity and a higher specificity on recurrence compared to the initial interpretations (0.93 vs. 0.75 and 0.90 vs. 0.68, respectively), and the difference in specificity was significant (p = 0.016). Additional imaging studies were recommended more frequently in the initial interpretation (22% vs. 6%, p = 0.006). Conclusions: Our study shows the second-opinion interpretation by subspecialized radiologists improves the detection of pancreatic cancer recurrence after surgical resection.
A Second Opinion is Worth the Cost - 12479
This paper, 'A Second Opinion is Worth the Cost', shows how a second opinion for a Department of Energy (DOE) Project helped prepare and pass a DOE Order 413.3A 'Program and Project Management for the acquisition of Capital Assets' Office of Engineering and Construction Management (OECM) required External Independent Review (EIR) in support of the approved baseline for Critical Decision (CD) 2. The DOE project personnel were informed that the project's Total Project Cost (TPC) was going to increase from $815 million to $1.1 billion due to unforeseen problems and unexplained reasons. The DOE Project Team determined that a second opinion was needed to review and validate the TPC. Project Time and Cost, Inc. (PT and C) was requested to evaluate the cost estimate, schedule, basis of estimate (BOE), and risk management plan of the Project and to give an independent assessment of the TPC that was presented to DOE. This paper will demonstrate how breaking down a project to the work breakdown structure (WBS) level allows a project to be analyzed for potential cost increases and/or decreases, thus providing a more accurate TPC. The review Team's cost analyses of Projects identified eight primary drivers resulting in cost increases. They included: - Overstatement of the effort required to develop drawings and specifications. - Cost allocation to 'Miscellaneous' without sufficient detail or documentation. - Cost for duplicated efforts. - Vendor estimates or quotations without sufficient detail. - The practice of using the highest price quoted then adding an additional 10% mark-up. - Application of Nuclear Quality Assurance (NQA) highest level quality requirements when not required. - Allocation of operational costs to the Project Costs instead of to the Operating Expenses (OPEX). OPEX costs come from a different funding source. - DOE had not approved the activities. By using a Team approach with professionals from cost, civil, mechanical, electrical, structural and nuclear disciplines and by performing a Line by Line, WBS element by WBS element review of the Projects' CD-2 baseline package helped the DOE Project Team experience success. The second opinion that PT and C provide by conducting a Pre-EIR review of the Project baseline package and the cost review of the TPC helped the DOE Team pass the CD-2 EIR and reduced the TPC. The Line-by-Line review of the DOE Project identified opportunities to reduce the TPC from $1.1 billion to $740.8 million, thus realizing a saving of approximately $359.2 million, or roughly 32% of the original TPC. This significant cost savings underscores the cost in obtaining the second opinion. This same Line by Line review can be applied to any DOE project in the Energy Management or Weapons complex. In the case of this DOE Project a second opinion was worth the cost. (authors)
Final Report for CSP Tower Public Opinion and Education Project
As part of the CSP Plant Optimization Study for the California Power Market (DE-EE0009809) the project wanted to understand the public’s opinion of the technology and and explore the types of community engagement that is needed to support such development. The initial objectives for the public perception activities were twofold. The primary objective was to gather public opinion and feedback from the communities living near the two operating solar power tower plants, Ivanpah and Crescent Dunes, and to distill lessons learned from the community engagement conducted before, during, and after the plants were developed to inform future development. This included outreach to nearby airports. The other objective was to gauge public opinion about large-scale solar, specifically CSP towers, to start educating the public on the benefits and to begin building relationships with communities of interest, initially targeting the Kingman, Arizona area. The objectives shifted after the first exploratory trip to Ivanpah and Kingman, however, as it became apparent that it would be challenging to gather public opinion from the community surrounding Ivanpah that could be useful for other community profiles, and the company wasn’t ready to address the concerns in Kingman. Another area was chosen, therefore, to represent those where future development is possible. The recently published Lawrence Berkeley National Lab Perceptions of Large-Scale Solar Project Neighbors Study exemplified public perception polling based on social science and served as the foundation for the survey questions taken to the field. The intent was to ensure that people knew their input was valued and that the time they spent was valuable for the participant as well. It has been noted in the literature that in-person interaction has greater benefits than activities online or via mail, as well as limits the expense.
Environmental Projects: Biological Assessment, Opinion, and New 34-Meter Beam-Waveguide Antenna (DSS 24) at Apollo Site - Volume 17
This report deals with the Biological Assessment, Biological Opinion and Final Report on the construction of a high- efficiency 34-meter, multifrequency beam-waveguide antenna at the Apollo Site of the Goldstone Deep Space Communications Complex, operated by JPL. According to the Endangered Species Act of 1973, a Biological Assessment must be conducted and a Biological Opinion, with terms and conditions, rendered (the Opinion by the U.S. Department of the Interior) before construction of any federal project that may affect endangered or threatened flora or fauna. After construction, a final report is filed with the Department. The desert tortoise, designated "threatened" by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Mojave ground squirrel and the Lane Mountain milk vetch, both designated "candidate threatened," required the reporting specified by the Act. The Assessment found no significant danger to the animal species if workers are educated about them. No stands of the plant species were observed in the surveyed construction area. The Department issued a Biological Opinion to safeguard the two animal species. The Service and the California Department of Fish and Game both issued a Biological Concurrence that JPL had satisfied all environmental criteria for preserving threatened species.
Contrasting Public Opinion Dynamics and Emotional Response during Crisis
We propose an approach for contrasting spatiotemporal dynamics of public opinions expressed toward targeted entities, also known as stance detection task, in Russia and Ukraine during crisis. Our analysis relies on a novel corpus constructed from posts on the VKontakte social network, centered on local public opinion of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian crisis, along with newly annotated resources for predicting expressions of fine-grained emotions including joy, sadness, disgust, anger, surprise and fear. Akin to prior work on sentiment analysis we align traditional public opinion polls with aggregated automatic predictions of sentiments for contrastive geo-locations. We report interesting observations on emotional response and stance variations across geo-locations. Some of our findings contradict stereotypical misconceptions imposed by media, for example, we found posts from Ukraine that do not support Euromaidan but support Putin, and posts from Russia that are against Putin but in favor USA. Furthermore, we are the first to demonstrate contrastive stance variations over time across geo-locations using storyline visualization technique.
Opinion dynamics in financial markets via random networks
We investigate financial market dynamics by introducing a heterogeneous agent-based opinion formation model. In this work, we organize individuals in a financial market according to their trading strategy, namely, whether they are noise traders or fundamentalists. The opinion of a local majority compels the market exchanging behavior of noise traders, whereas the global behavior of the market influences the decisions of fundamentalist agents. We introduce a noise parameter, q , to represent the level of anxiety and perceived uncertainty regarding market behavior, enabling the possibility of adrift financial action. We place individuals as nodes in an Erdös-Rényi random graph, where the links represent their social interactions. At any given time, individuals assume one of two possible opinion states ±1 regarding buying or selling an asset. The model exhibits fundamental qualitative and quantitative real-world market features such as the distribution of logarithmic returns with fat tails, clustered volatility, and the long-term correlation of returns. We use Student’s t distributions to fit the histograms of logarithmic returns, showing a gradual shift from a leptokurtic to a mesokurtic regime depending on the fraction of fundamentalist agents. Furthermore, we compare our results with those concerning the distribution of the logarithmic returns of several real-world financial indices.
An opinion-driven behavioral dynamics model for addictive behaviors
We present a model of behavioral dynamics that combines a social network-based opinion dynamics model with behavioral mapping. The behavioral component is discrete and history-dependent to represent situations in which an individual’s behavior is initially driven by opinion and later constrained by physiological or psychological conditions that serve to maintain the behavior. Additionally, individuals are modeled as nodes in a social network connected by directed edges. Parameter sweeps illustrate model behavior and the effects of individual parameters and parameter interactions on model results. Mapping a continuous opinion variable into a discrete behavioral space induces clustering on directed networks. Clusters provide targets of opportunity for influencing the network state; however, the smaller the network the greater the stochasticity and potential variability in outcomes. Furthermore, this has implications both for behaviors that are influenced by close relationships verses those influenced by societal norms and for the effectiveness of strategies for influencing those behaviors.
Implications of Public Opinion for Space Program Planning, 1980 - 2000
The effect of public opinion on future space programs is discussed in terms of direct support, apathy, or opposition, and concern about the tax burden, budgetary pressures, and national priorities. Factors considered include: the salience and visibility of NASA as compared with other issues, the sources of general pressure on the federal budget which could affect NASA, the public's opinions regarding the size and priority of NASA'S budget, the degree to which the executive can exercise leverage over NASA's budget through influencing or disregarding public opinion, the effects of linkages to other issues on space programs, and the public's general attitudes toward the progress of science.
A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports
A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat 'unconventional' aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method is able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.
A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings for large commercial transports
A model-based technique for predicting pilot opinion ratings is described. Features of this procedure, which is based on the optimal-control model for pilot/vehicle systems, include (1) capability to treat "unconventional" aircraft dynamics, (2) a relatively free-form pilot model, (3) a simple scalar metric for attentional workload, and (4) a straightforward manner of proceeding from descriptions of the flight task environment and requirements to a prediction of pilot opinion rating. The method was able to provide a good match to a set of pilot opinion ratings obtained in a manned simulation study of large commercial aircraft in landing approach.
A Novel Graphical User Interface for High-Efficacy Modeling of Human Perceptual Similarity Opinions
We present a novel graphical user interface (GUI) that facilitates high-efficacy collection of perceptual similarity opinions of a user in an effective and intuitive manner. The GUI is based on a hybrid mechanism that combines ranking and rating. Namely, it presents a base image for rating its similarity to seven peripheral images that are displayed simultaneously following a circular layout. The user is asked to report the base image s pairwise similarity to each peripheral image on a fixed scale while preserving the relative ranking among all peripheral images. The collected data are then used to predict the user s subjective opinions regarding the perceptual similarity of images. We tested this new approach against two methods commonly used in perceptual similarity studies: (1) a ranking method that presents triplets of images for selecting the image pair with the highest internal similarity and (2) a rating method that presents pairs of images for rating their relative similarity on a fixed scale. We aimed to determine which data collection method was the most time efficient and effective for predicting a user s perceptual opinions regarding the similarity of mammographic masses. Our study was conducted with eight individuals. By using the proposed GUI, we were able to derive individual user profiles that were 41.4% to 46.9% more accurate than those derived with the other two data collection GUIs. The accuracy improvement was statistically significant.
Opinion Dynamics on Networks under Correlated Disordered External Perturbations
We study an influence network of voters subjected to correlated disordered external perturbations, and solve the dynamical equations exactly for fully connected networks. The model has a critical phase transition between disordered unimodal and ordered bimodal distribution states, characterized by an increase in the vote-share variability of the equilibrium distributions. The fluctuations (variance and correlations) in the external perturbations are shown to reduce the impact of the external influence by increasing the critical threshold needed for the bimodal distribution of opinions to appear. The external fluctuations also have the surprising effect of driving voters towards biased opinions. Furthermore, the first and second moments of the external perturbations are shown to affect the first and second moments of the vote-share distribution. This is shown analytically in the mean field limit, and confirmed numerically for fully connected networks and other network topologies. Studying the dynamic response of complex systems to disordered external perturbations could help us understand the dynamics of a wide variety of networked systems, from social networks and financial markets to amorphous magnetic spins and population genetics.
Opinion polls and the U.S. civil space program
The conclusions that can be drawn from public opinion polls depend a great deal on what usually does not appear on the newspaper page or television screen. Subtle biases can result from the population interviewed, the time of day individuals were called, how a particular question was asked, or how the answer was interpreted. Examples are the 1961 Gallop Poll, the survey done for Rockwell International by the firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White/Clancy Shulman, and the one done by Jon D. Miller of the International Center for the Advancement of Scientific Literacy. There is more to learn from opinion polls than that a good proportion of adult Americans support the space program. We can learn that social and economic security are not competing goals with space, but interdependent goals. If we want to increase public support for space, we must increase the number of Americans who have the economic freedom to take an interest in something besides getting by, day after day. We can also learn that the majority of those who support the space program can distinguish between the bread and circuses of space travel. They are content to experience extraordinary adventures in the movie theaters; for their tax dollars they want real return in expended scientific knowledge and understanding. Finally, we can learn that we need to increase that return, not just for scientific careers, but for the ordinary people who pay our bills and for their children, our children. Ultimately, the space program is for them, as all investments in the future must be.