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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian time-varying occupancy model for West Nile virus in Ontario, Canada

Occupancy models determine the true presence or absence of a species by adjusting for imperfect detection in surveys. They often assume that species presences can be detected only if sites are occupied during a sampling season. We extended these models to estimate occupancy rates that vary throughout a sampling season as well as account for spatial dependence among sites. For these methods, we constructed a fast Gibbs sampler with the Pólya-Gamma augmentation strategy to conduct inference on covariate effects. We applied these methods to evaluate how environmental conditions and surveillance practices are associated with the presence of West Nile virus in mosquito traps across Ontario, Canada from 2002 to 2017. We found that urban land cover and warm temperatures drove viral occupancy, whereas viral testing on pools with higher proportions of Culex mosquitoes was more likely to result in a positive test for West Nile virus. Models with time-varying occupancy effects achieved much lower Watanabe-Akaike information criteria than models without such effects. Our final model had strong predictive performance on test data that included some of the most extreme seasons, demonstrating the promise of these methods in the study of pathogens spread by mosquito vectors.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2012

Calibration of Airframe and Occupant Models for Two Full-Scale Rotorcraft Crash Tests

Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system integrated finite element model of the test article. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the second full-scale crash test. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods was used to identify modeling deficiencies, evaluate parameter importance, and propose required model changes. It is shown that the multi-dimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and co-pilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. This approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and test planning guidance. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used to satisfy crash certification requirements, thereby reducing overall development costs.

Annett, Martin S.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating coccidioidomycosis endemicity while accounting for imperfect detection using spatio - temporal occupancy modeling

Coccidioidomycosis, or Valley fever, is an infectious disease caused by inhaling Coccidioides fungal spores. Incidence has risen in recent years, and it is believed the endemic region for Coccidioides is expanding in response to climate change. While Valley fever case data can help us understand trends in disease risk, using case data as a proxy for Coccidioides endemicity is not ideal because case data suffers from imperfect detection, including false positives (e.g., travel-related cases reported outside of endemic area) and false negatives (e.g., misdiagnosis or underreporting). Here we proposed a Bayesian, spatio-temporal occupancy model to relate monthly, county-level presence/absence data on Valley fever cases to latent endemicity of Coccidioides, accounting for imperfect detection. We used our model to estimate endemicity in the western United States. We estimated high probability of endemicity in southern California, Arizona, and New Mexico, but also in regions without mandated reporting, including western Texas, eastern Colorado, and southeastern Washington. We also quantified spatio-temporal variability in detectability of Valley fever, given an area is endemic to Coccidioides. We estimated an inverse relationship between lagged 3- and 9-month precipitation and case detection, and a positive association with agriculture. This work can help inform public health surveillance needs and identify areas that would benefit from mandatory case reporting.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study of Advanced Occupant Models to Quantify Injury Risk for eVTOL Vehicles

Urban transportation is currently evolving from traditional ground-based vehicles (cars, taxis, and buses) to include air-based electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles which can be utilized for on-demand transportation, cargo transport, and emergency services. These new eVTOL vehicles are designed to be small, lightweight, and able to operate autonomously without user intervention. Safety is a big part of eventual eVTOL adoption, however gaps in the consideration of safety features exist. Anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) are used in aerospace crashworthiness standards to quantify occupant injury risk and develop improved safety designs for emergency landing situations, but the ATDs currently used in aircraft certification requirements were developed many decades ago. Developments have occurred over the years involving ATD technology, which includes a host of newer and more biofidelic ATDs such as the Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR). Increased computing power has also allowed for detailed computational human body models (HBMs) to be created, such as the Global Human Body Model Consortium (GHBMC). This study aims to assess the capability of both HBMs and new ATD designs to identify injury mechanisms within eVTOL relevant emergency landing conditions. Finite element (FE) analysis was used to expand upon full-scale and seat level impact testing conducted by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to look at effects of occupant model configurations on prediction of injury. The GHBMC HBM and THOR ATD models were simulated in the seat level test conditions to characterize differences between these advanced assessment tools and traditional ATDs in the isolated seat loading environment. Results identified key differences in the responses from each of the models utilized and compared their impact response in head, neck, and spinal injury metrics. The THOR model identified potential risks for head injuries due to head impacts on the seat, however it predicted lower spinal loads than the other occupant surrogates. The GHBMC showed distinctly different biomechanical responses compared to the ATD. The GHBMC model is much more deformable than the ATDs and it exhibited higher distribution of forces and increased sensitivity to the duration of acceleration pulses. Both models incorporated into this study identified key mechanisms for injury that should be considered for passenger safety in the development of these novel aircraft. In addition, this study demonstrated the value of FE modeling for running a variety of complex human surrogates to identify potential injury mechanisms for consideration in regulation and development of new aircraft. Continued research in this field to improve validation these models will only lead to safer aircraft and more comprehensive safety measures.

Crashworthiness↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study of Advanced Occupant Models to Quantify Injury Risk for eVTOL Vehicles

Urban transportation is currently evolving from traditional ground-based vehicles (cars, taxis, and buses) to include air-based electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicles which can be utilized for on-demand transportation, cargo transport, and emergency services. These new eVTOL vehicles are designed to be small, lightweight, and able to operate autonomously without user intervention. Safety is a big part of eventual eVTOL adoption, however gaps in the consideration of safety features exist. Anthropomorphic test devices (ATDs) are used in aerospace crashworthiness standards to quantify occupant injury risk and develop improved safety designs for emergency landing situations, but the ATDs currently used in aircraft certification requirements were developed many decades ago. Developments have occurred over the years involving ATD technology, which includes a host of newer and more biofidelic ATDs such as the Test Device for Human Occupant Restraint (THOR). Increased computing power has also allowed for detailed computational human body models (HBMs) to be created, such as the Global Human Body Model Consortium (GHBMC). This study aims to assess the capability of both HBMs and new ATD designs to identify injury mechanisms within eVTOL relevant emergency landing conditions. Finite element (FE) analysis was used to expand upon full-scale and seat level impact testing conducted by researchers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to look at effects of occupant model configurations on prediction of injury. The GHBMC HBM and THOR ATD models were simulated in the seat level test conditions to characterize differences between these advanced assessment tools and traditional ATDs in the isolated seat loading environment. Results identified key differences in the responses from each of the models utilized and compared their impact response in head, neck, and spinal injury metrics. The THOR model identified potential risks for head injuries due to head impacts on the seat, however it predicted lower spinal loads than the other occupant surrogates. The GHBMC showed distinctly different biomechanical responses compared to the ATD. The GHBMC model is much more deformable than the ATDs and it exhibited higher distribution of forces and increased sensitivity to the duration of acceleration pulses. Both models incorporated into this study identified key mechanisms for injury that should be considered for passenger safety in the development of these novel aircraft. In addition, this study demonstrated the value of FE modeling for running a variety of complex human surrogates to identify potential injury mechanisms for consideration in regulation and development of new aircraft. Continued research in this field to improve validation these models will only lead to safer aircraft and more comprehensive safety measures.

Crashworthiness↗
DOE OSTI2026

Modeling Occupant Core Temperatures Across the Boston Building Stock to Advance Public Health

In recent history, extreme heat has been the cause of most deaths from a natural disaster. Exposure to extreme heat can aggravate preexisting conditions, increase hospitalization, and even cause death. Thus, modeling the thermal resilience of households across the United States will allow for a quantitative assessment of the health and safety risks posed by extreme heat. For the first time, we simulate occupant comfort in representative households across Boston by combining the granular results of the ResStock(TM) model with a two-node heat strain model. This model calculates occupants' core body temperature in each simulated household over a year. We compare the simulated core temperatures to two public health metrics: hyperthermia and heat stroke. Our results show for households in Boston that do not have or use aid conditioning, thousands potentially experience many dangerous heat events each summer and these events can last for more than a day at a time. These heat events peak during the late afternoon and evening, just as residents are coming home, cooking meals, and trying to go to sleep. We have found that multi-family buildings, renters, and low-income homes in more airtight and insulated homes are the most at risk for these events. These results demonstrate the scale and urgency of exposure to extreme heat.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ten questions concerning agent-based modeling of occupant behavior for energy and environmental performance of buildings

We report the complexity of occupant behavior is one of the major contributors to uncertainty in building performance simulation. Agent-based modeling (ABM), a computational simulation technique, has gained attention in the occupant modeling field due to its capability and flexibility to capture the heterogeneity and dynamics of human behavior and the emergent effects. While multiple efforts in the past decade have demonstrated the usefulness of the ABM approach for simulating occupants and their impacts on building performance, several crucial matters in the ABM research still remain unexplored. This paper presents ten questions that highlight the most important issues regarding ABM research and applications for occupant behavior in the context of building performance simulation. The questions and answers aim to provide insights into current and future ABM research, and more importantly to inspire new significant questions from young researchers in the field. This research is part of the IEA EBC Annex 79 project, occupant-centric building design and operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗
DOE OSTI2022

A guideline to document occupant behavior models for advanced building controls

The availability of computational power, and a wealth of data from sensors have boosted the development of model-based predictive control for smart and effective control of advanced buildings in the last decade. More recently occupant-behavior models have been developed for including people in the building control loops. However, while important objectives of scientific research are reproducibility and replicability of results, not all information is available from published documents. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to propose a guideline for a thorough and standardized occupant-behavior model documentation. For that purpose, the literature screening for the existing occupant behavior models in building control was conducted, and the occupant behavior modeling processes were studied to extract practices and gaps for each of the following phases: problem statement, data collection, and preprocessing, model development, model evaluation, and model implementation. Here, the literature screening pointed out that the current state-of-the-art on model documentation shows little unification, which poses a particular burden for the model application and replication in field studies. In addition to the standardized model documentation, this work presented a model-evaluation schema that enabled benchmarking of different models in field settings as well as the recommendations on how OB models are integrated with the building system.

Building control↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using Maximum Circular Velocity in Halo Occupation Distribution Models to Predict Galaxy Clustering

Abstract Standard halo occupation distribution (HOD) models predict how galaxies occupy halos based on a single property, the virial mass, M vir . To incorporate galaxy assembly bias, we consider alternative halo mass proxies to use in the HOD. A promising replacement is maximum circular velocity, V max , which measures the halo’s potential well, and successfully predicts galaxy clustering in subhalo abundance matching models. We fit galaxy clustering measurements from SDSS DR7 with two modified HODs besides the standard M vir -based model: one where V max is used as the halo property that determines galaxy occupation, and the other adopting an adjustable combination of M vir and V max . Except for the reduced volume M r < − 20 threshold sample fit with V max alone, neither change improves the model performance in predicting the projected two-point correlation function, w p . We conclude that switching the primary variable to V max does not significantly improve the HOD model’s ability to fit galaxy clustering.

Mezini, Lorena↗
NASA NTRS2003

Application of Probabilistic Analysis to Aircraft Impact Dynamics

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stressstrain behaviors, laminated composites, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the uncertainty in the simulated responses. Several criteria are used to determine that a response surface method is the most appropriate probabilistic approach. The work is extended to compare optimization results with and without probabilistic constraints.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Application of Probability Methods to Assess Crash Modeling Uncertainty

Full-scale aircraft crash simulations performed with nonlinear, transient dynamic, finite element codes can incorporate structural complexities such as: geometrically accurate models; human occupant models; and advanced material models to include nonlinear stress-strain behaviors, and material failure. Validation of these crash simulations is difficult due to a lack of sufficient information to adequately determine the uncertainty in the experimental data and the appropriateness of modeling assumptions. This paper evaluates probabilistic approaches to quantify the effects of finite element modeling assumptions on the predicted responses. The vertical drop test of a Fokker F28 fuselage section will be the focus of this paper. The results of a probabilistic analysis using finite element simulations will be compared with experimental data.

Lyle, Karen H.↗
NASA NTRS1975

An improved human display model for occupant crash simulation programs

An improved three-dimensional display model of a human being which can be used to display the results of three-dimensional simulation programs that predict the positions of an occupant during impact of a vehicle was presented. The model allows the user to view the occupant from any orientation in any position during the crash. The display model assumes the usual break up of the body into rigid segments which is normal for occupant crash simulation programs, but the shape of the segments in the display model are not necessarily the same as those used in the crash simulation. The display model is proportioned so as to produce a realistic drawing of the human body in any position. Joints connecting the segments are also drawn to improve realism.

Willmert, K. D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Vertical Drop Testing and Analysis of the WASP Helicopter Skid Gear

Human occupant modeling and injury risk assessment have been identified as areas of research for improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness within the NASA Aeronautics Program's Subsonic Rotary Wing Project. As part of this effort, an experimental program was conducted to assess the impact performance of a skid gear for use on the WASP kit-built helicopter, which is marketed by HeloWerks, Inc. of Hampton, Virginia. Test data from a drop test at an impact velocity of 8.4 feet-per-second were used to assess a finite element model of the skid gear test article. This assessment included human occupant analytic models developed for execution in LS-DYNA. The test article consisted of an aluminum skid gear mounted beneath a steel plate. A seating platform was attached to the upper surface of the steel plate, and two 95th percentile Hybrid III male Aerospace Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were seated on the platform and secured using a four-point restraint system. The goal of the test-analysis correlation is to further the understanding of LS-DYNA ATD occupant models and responses in the vertical (or spinal) direction. By correlating human occupant experimental test data for a purely vertical impact with the LS-DYNA occupant responses, improved confidence in the use of these tools and better understanding of the limitations of the automotive-based occupant models for aerospace application can begin to be developed.

Fuchs, Yvonne T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Vertical Drop Testing and Analysis of the WASP Helicopter Skid Gear

Human occupant modeling and injury risk assessment have been identified as areas of research for improved prediction of rotorcraft crashworthiness within the NASA Aeronautics Program s Subsonic Rotary Wing Project. As part of this effort, an experimental program was conducted to assess the impact performance of a skid gear for use on the WASP kit-built helicopter, which is marketed by HeloWerks, Inc. of Hampton, Virginia. Test data from a drop test at an impact velocity of 8.4 feet-per-second were used to assess a finite element model of the skid gear test article. This assessment included human occupant analytic models developed for execution in LS-DYNA. The test article consisted of an aluminum skid gear mounted beneath a steel plate. A seating platform was attached to the upper surface of the steel plate, and two 95th percentile Hybrid III male Aerospace Anthropomorphic Test Devices (ATDs) were seated on the platform and secured using a four-point restraint system. The goal of the test-analysis correlation is to further the understanding of LS-DYNA ATD occupant models and responses in the vertical (or spinal) direction. By correlating human occupant experimental test data for a purely vertical impact with the LS-DYNA occupant responses, improved confidence in the use of these tools and better understanding of the limitations of the automotive-based occupant models for aerospace application can begin to be developed.

Fuchs, Yvonne T.↗