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At least 19 records

Application of Raytracing Through the High Resolution Numerical Weather Model HIRLAM for the Analysis of European VLBI

An important limitation for the precision in the results obtained by space geodetic techniques like VLBI and GPS are tropospheric delays caused by the neutral atmosphere, see e.g. [1]. In recent years numerical weather models (NWM) have been applied to improve mapping functions which are used for tropospheric delay modeling in VLBI and GPS data analyses. In this manuscript we use raytracing to calculate slant delays and apply these to the analysis of Europe VLBI data. The raytracing is performed through the limited area numerical weather prediction (NWP) model HIRLAM. The advantages of this model are high spatial (0.2 deg. x 0.2 deg.) and high temporal resolution (in prediction mode three hours).

Garcia-Espada, Susana↗

Using XR for Improving Scientific Discovery With Numerical Weather Models

Our work explores the use of extended reality (XR) to im- prove scientific discovery with numerical weather/climate models that inform Earth science digital twins, specifically the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global atmospheric model. The overall project is named the Vi- sualization And Lagrangian dynamics Immersive eXtended Reality Toolkit (VALIXR), which has two main areas of focus: (1) enhancing the understanding of and interaction with model output data through advanced visualizations in the XR environment, and (2) the integration of Lagrangian dynamics into the GEOS model, which allows a natural, feature-specific analysis of Earth science phenomena as op- posed to traditional, fixed-point Eulerian dynamics. Here, we report initial work on these focus areas.

Thomas Grubb↗

Treatment of cloudiness in regional scale - Numerical weather prediction models

A numerical weather prediction model is considered in which cloud water and precipitation are explicitly predicted as functions of three space dimensions and time. Approximations in the thermodynamic and continuity equations are discussed in detail, as well as the cumulus parameterization and the cloud microphysics parameterization. An example of a real-data forecast indicates that very accurate quantitative precipitation and cloud cover forecasts are possible using initial observations from only the relatively sparse rawinsonde network in the U.S.

Kreitzberg, C. W.↗

Using XR for Improving Scientific Discovery With Numerical Weather Models

Earth science (ES) digital twins will help us understand the complex interactions and interrelationships that make up our Earth system and the impacts of earth science phenomena on it. Our work addresses two underdeveloped areas in current ES digital twin work: improving the understanding and interaction with ES model outputs by using Virtual and Mixed Reality (XR) tools and improving the non-intuitive mapping of continuous ES natural phenomena to gridded reference frames in current numerical models. Traditionally, scientists working on ES view and analyze the results of calculated or measured observables with static 1-dimensional (1D), 2D or 3D plots displayed on flat computer screens or paper. Using such limited mediums, it can be very difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. In addition, numerical models, such as the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ES model, are almost exclusively formulated, visualized and analyzed in an Eulerian reference frame with fixed grid points in space and time. However, ES phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes are visualized and analyzed in a Lagrangian reference frame: therefore it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in relation to each other, visualized either in an Eulerian or Lagrangian context. In 3D visualizations, data generally takes one of three forms: gridded (e.g., voxelized) data, where space is divided into regions; point clouds, where data is represented as a set of points; and meshes, where objects are rendered as surfaces composed of small polygons (usually triangles). A gridded, Eulerian reference frame has been the default representation for the 2D visual analysis of atmospheric data in part because the numerical methods used to generate atmospheric model data in the first place use a gridded approach, with equations defining the relationships between the physical variables in each of a grid's cells across successive timesteps. In our work, we are particularly interested in data from GEOS. Another reason why gridded representations tend to be used for visualizing data from such models is because trajectories are difficult to interpret from representations on 2D surfaces, due to line-of-sight ambiguity. Instead of a fixed grid from GEOS, we embed a trajectory model to simulate particles' movement throughout a GEOS run. We then ingest these particle trajectories as animated point clouds with a NASA open source XR toolkit, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), and merge GEOS data with ES phenomena data onto one combined visualization that the user can intuitively interact with. Efficient rendering of arbitrarily large point clouds is an ongoing challenge being addressed by the computer science community, with the GPU-based optimizations and efficient GPU memory utilization a common theme of recent advances, especially for XR, where sustained high frame rate is mandatory to save the user from suffering due to simulation sickness. In this work, we describe and evaluate our progress in choosing and implementing appropriate methods for rendering arbitrarily large point clouds within MRET for XR. While tracking the XR headset enables the immersion of a user within a 3D scene of a data visualization, tracking of XR handheld controllers or user’s hands enables us to implement intuitive user interactions with the visualized datasets. Conventional tools require a user working with an ES visualization to conduct many interactions to commit their intended selections or manipulations with a visualized dataset; for example to specify a set of points in 3D space. Doing so in a 2D flat screen interface has traditionally required specifying a set of points in three distinct 2D coordinate systems (XY, XZ, and YZ), which is cumbersome. In other scientific domains, it has been shown that specifying or selecting a location or volume in XR using handheld controllers or tracked hands allows for greater speed and accuracy. We anticipate the same will hold true for atmospheric data, and we will share initial results of measuring the utility of such an interface. Notably, as the data being visualized is generated by GEOS as a prediction based on initial conditions, an intended application of our tool is to serve as part of an iterative feedback loop. Through XR, a scientist will review and manipulate a GEOS model run, modifying the conditions as needed to do subsequent runs of GEOS. Thereby, XR-based improvements to speed and accuracy of 3D tagging of points minimizes the effort required by both the scientist and the computer cluster conducting the necessary calculations.

Thomas Grubb↗

Using 3-D Numerical Weather Data in Piloted Simulations

This report describes the process of acquiring and using 3-D numerical model weather data sets in NASA Langley's Research Flight Deck (RFD). A set of software tools implement the process and can be used for other purposes as well. Given time and location information of a weather phenomenon of interest, the user can download associated numerical weather model data. These data are created by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) model, and are then processed using a set of Mathworks' Matlab(TradeMark) scripts to create the usable 3-D weather data sets. Each data set includes radar re ectivity, water vapor, component winds, temperature, supercooled liquid water, turbulence, pressure, altitude, land elevation, relative humidity, and water phases. An open-source data processing program, wgrib2, is available from NOAA online, and is used along with Matlab scripts. These scripts are described with sucient detail to make future modi cations. These software tools have been used to generate 3-D weather data for various RFD experiments.

Daniels, Taumi S.↗

A split explicit reformulation of the regional numerical weather prediction model of the Japan Meteorological Agency

The split explicit integration scheme for numerical weather prediction models is employed in a version of the regional numerical weather prediction model of the Japan Meteorological Agency. The finite-difference scheme of the model is designed in the manner proposed by Okamura (1975). The horizontal advection terms in the governing equations are integrated with a time step limited by the wind speed while the terms which describe inertial-gravity oscillations are integrated in a succession of shorter time steps. The physical processes included within the model are precipitation, small-scale convection, surface exchanges of sensible and latent heat, and radiative heating and cooling. An example of a surface pressure forecast over Europe is shown for initial data observed at 0000 GMT 29 December 1979. Quantitative precipitation forecasts over Europe and North America for the 24 h period beginning at 0000 GMT 30 December 1979 are also shown. It is concluded that the model is capable of realistically depicting the evolution of synoptic-scale systems.

Duffy, D. G.↗

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center develops new products and techniques that can be used in operational meteorology. The majority of these products are derived from NASA polar-orbiting satellite imagery from the Earth Observing System (EOS) platforms. One such product is a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is produced from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the new SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on land surface models apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. The second phase of the project is to examine the impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate WRF model simulations were made for individual severe weather case days using the NCEP GVF (control) and SPoRT GVF (experimental), with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results in these case studies, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). The opposite was true for areas with lower GVF in the SPoRT model runs. These differences in the heating and evaporation rates produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for the selected severe weather case examined.

Bell, Jordan R.↗

Evaluating the Impacts of NASA/SPoRT Daily Greenness Vegetation Fraction on Land Surface Model and Numerical Weather Forecasts

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Greenness Vegetation Fraction (GVF) dataset, which is updated daily using swaths of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data aboard the NASA EOS Aqua and Terra satellites. NASA SPoRT began generating daily real-time GVF composites at 1-km resolution over the Continental United States (CONUS) on 1 June 2010. The purpose of this study is to compare the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) climatology GVF product (currently used in operational weather models) to the SPoRT-MODIS GVF during June to October 2010. The NASA Land Information System (LIS) was employed to study the impacts of the SPoRT-MODIS GVF dataset on a land surface model (LSM) apart from a full numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. For the 2010 warm season, the SPoRT GVF in the western portion of the CONUS was generally higher than the NCEP climatology. The eastern CONUS GVF had variations both above and below the climatology during the period of study. These variations in GVF led to direct impacts on the rates of heating and evaporation from the land surface. In the West, higher latent heat fluxes prevailed, which enhanced the rates of evapotranspiration and soil moisture depletion in the LSM. By late Summer and Autumn, both the average sensible and latent heat fluxes increased in the West as a result of the more rapid soil drying and higher coverage of GVF. The impacts of the SPoRT GVF dataset on NWP was also examined for a single severe weather case study using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Two separate coupled LIS/WRF model simulations were made for the 17 July 2010 severe weather event in the Upper Midwest using the NCEP and SPoRT GVFs, with all other model parameters remaining the same. Based on the sensitivity results, regions with higher GVF in the SPoRT model runs had higher evapotranspiration and lower direct surface heating, which typically resulted in lower (higher) predicted 2-m temperatures (2-m dewpoint temperatures). Portions of the Northern Plains states experienced substantial increases in convective available potential energy as a result of the higher SPoRT/MODIS GVFs. These differences produced subtle yet quantifiable differences in the simulated convective precipitation systems for this event.

Bell, Jordan R.↗

Forecasts of time averages with a numerical weather prediction model

Forecasts of time averages of 1-10 days in duration by an operational numerical weather prediction model are documented for the global 500 mb height field in spectral space. Error growth in very idealized models is described in order to anticipate various features of these forecasts and in order to anticipate what the results might be if forecasts longer than 10 days were carried out by present day numerical weather prediction models. The data set for this study is described, and the equilibrium spectra and error spectra are documented; then, the total error is documented. It is shown how forecasts can immediately be improved by removing the systematic error, by using statistical filters, and by ignoring forecasts beyond about a week. Temporal variations in the error field are also documented.

Roads, J. O.↗

A New Objective Technique for Verifying Mesoscale Numerical Weather Prediction Models

This report presents a new objective technique to verify predictions of the sea-breeze phenomenon over east-central Florida by the Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) mesoscale numerical weather prediction (NWP) model. The Contour Error Map (CEM) technique identifies sea-breeze transition times in objectively-analyzed grids of observed and forecast wind, verifies the forecast sea-breeze transition times against the observed times, and computes the mean post-sea breeze wind direction and speed to compare the observed and forecast winds behind the sea-breeze front. The CEM technique is superior to traditional objective verification techniques and previously-used subjective verification methodologies because: It is automated, requiring little manual intervention, It accounts for both spatial and temporal scales and variations, It accurately identifies and verifies the sea-breeze transition times, and It provides verification contour maps and simple statistical parameters for easy interpretation. The CEM uses a parallel lowpass boxcar filter and a high-order bandpass filter to identify the sea-breeze transition times in the observed and model grid points. Once the transition times are identified, CEM fits a Gaussian histogram function to the actual histogram of transition time differences between the model and observations. The fitted parameters of the Gaussian function subsequently explain the timing bias and variance of the timing differences across the valid comparison domain. Once the transition times are all identified at each grid point, the CEM computes the mean wind direction and speed during the remainder of the day for all times and grid points after the sea-breeze transition time. The CEM technique performed quite well when compared to independent meteorological assessments of the sea-breeze transition times and results from a previously published subjective evaluation. The algorithm correctly identified a forecast or observed sea-breeze occurrence or absence 93% of the time during the two- month evaluation period from July and August 2000. Nearly all failures in CEM were the result of complex precipitation features (observed or forecast) that contaminated the wind field, resulting in a false identification of a sea-breeze transition. A qualitative comparison between the CEM timing errors and the subjectively determined observed and forecast transition times indicate that the algorithm performed very well overall. Most discrepancies between the CEM results and the subjective analysis were again caused by observed or forecast areas of precipitation that led to complex wind patterns. The CEM also failed on a day when the observed sea- breeze transition affected only a very small portion of the verification domain. Based on the results of CEM, the RAMS tended to predict the onset and movement of the sea-breeze transition too early and/or quickly. The domain-wide timing biases provided by CEM indicated an early bias on 30 out of 37 days when both an observed and forecast sea breeze occurred over the same portions of the analysis domain. These results are consistent with previous subjective verifications of the RAMS sea breeze predictions. A comparison of the mean post-sea breeze winds indicate that RAMS has a positive wind-speed bias for .all days, which is also consistent with the early bias in the sea-breeze transition time since the higher wind speeds resulted in a faster inland penetration of the sea breeze compared to reality.

Case, Jonathan L.↗

On the horizontal resolution of fronts in numerical weather prediction models

A two-dimensional model is used to study the ability of current numerical weather prediction models to capture frontogenesis and to determine frontal motion. Particular attention is given to the ability of a simulation with a very coarse grid to represent the dynamics of a frontogenetically-active model cold front in a simulation with a relatively fine grid. A resolution between 50 and 100 km is satisfactory for capturing frontal scale motions.

Reeder, Michael J.↗

A numerical weather prediction system designed to simulate atmospheric downburst phenomena

It is pointed out that an increase in the understanding of weather-related aircraft accidents can save hundreds of human lives and million of dollars. A better understanding regarding the interaction between aircraft operation and severe weather conditions can be obtained with the aid of flight simulator facilities. It is shown that numerical weather modeling is one of the most precise and cost-effective inputs for flight simulators in the long run. A comprehensive weather modeling system is being developed for the simulation of different scales of atmospheric phenomena. The modeling system utilizes two numerical weather models, including the Mesoscale Atmospheric Simulation system, and the Terminal Area Simulation System.

Chuang, S.↗

An initialization procedure for assimilating geostationary satellite data into numerical weather prediction models

An attempt was made to offset the limitations of GEO satellites for supplying timely initialization data for numerical weather prediction models (NWP). The NWP considered combined an isentropic representation of the free atmosphere with a sigma-coordinate model for the lower 200 mb. A flux form of the predictive equations described vertical transport interactions at the boundary of the two model domains, thereby accounting for the poor vertical temperature and wind field resolution of GEO satellite data. A variational analysis approach was employed to insert low resolution satellite-sensed temperature data at varying rates. The model vertical resolution was limited to that available from the satellite. Test simulations demonstrated that accuracy increases with the frequency of data updates, e.g., every 0.5-1 hr. The tests also showed that extensive cloud cover negates the capabilities of IR sensors and that microwave sensors will be needed for temperature estimations for 500-1000 mb levels.

Gal-Chen, T.↗

Summary of Cumulus Parameterization Workshop

A workshop on cumulus parameterization took place at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center from December 3-5, 2001. The major objectives of this workshop were (1) to review the problem of representation of moist processes in large-scale models (mesoscale models, Numerical Weather Prediction models and Atmospheric General Circulation Models), (2) to review the state-of-the-art in cumulus parameterization schemes, and (3) to discuss the need for future research and applications. There were a total of 31 presentations and about 100 participants from the United States, Japan, the United Kingdom, France and South Korea. The specific presentations and discussions during the workshop are summarized in this paper.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Theoretical Modeling for Numerical Weather Prediction

The goal is to utilize predictability theory and numerical experimentation to identify and understand some of the dynamical processes which must be modeled more realistically if large-scale numerical weather predictions are to be improved. The emphasis is on the use of relatively simple models to exlore the properties of physically comprehensive general circulation models (GCM's). A global linear quasi-geostrophic model and the Goddard Laboratory for Atmospheric Sciences (GLAS) GCM were used to investigate several mechanisms which are responsible for the decay of large-scale forecast skill in mid-latitude numerical weather predictions. Five-day forecasts for an ensemble of cases were made using First GARP Global Experiment data. It was found that forecast skill depends crucially on the specification of the stationary forcing. A lack of stationary forcing leads to spurious westwad propagation of the ultralong waves. Forecasts made with stationary forcings derived from climatological data are superior to those using forcings inferred from observations immediately preceding the forecast period. Interhemispheric forecast differences were analyzed, and the model errors were compared to errors of a simple persistence-damped-to-climatology scheme and to errors of the GLAS GCM.

Somerville, R. C. J.↗

Advancing Solid Earth Science through Improved Atmosphere Modeling

We proposed to investigate and develop better models for the effect of the hydrostatic and water vapor components of the neutral atmosphere on delay for VLBI and GPS by using a Numerical Weather Model to better simulate realistic atmosphere conditions. By using a raytrace calculation through the model atmosphere at the times of actual VLBI observations, the potential improvement in geodetic results can be evaluated. Also, by calculating the actual variation of delays with elevation and azimuth, the errors in current mapping function models can be assessed. The VLBI data to be initially analyzed are the fifteen days of the CONT02 sessions of 2002 October which included eight stations. There are three segments to the research. 1) The PSU/NCAR fifth generation mesoscale numerical weather model (MM5) will be used to provide the state of the atmosphere with highest horizontal resolution of 3 km. 2) A three-dimensional raytrace program will be developed to determine the delays through the model atmosphere at the times and in the directions of the VLBI observations for each of the sites. 3) The VLBI data will be analyzed using both standard models for the atmosphere mapping functions and the mapping functions derived from the NWM raytracing.

Niell, A. E.↗