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Dynamic probabilistic risk assessment and game theory for cyber security risk analysis in nuclear power plants

Nuclear Power Plants and energy systems have become more prone to cyber-attacks with their digitalization and the increased use of smart equipment. Hence, it is important to quantify the risk associated with cyber-attacks in such systems. Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment which involves studying the evolution of a system due to random events and operator and attacker actions during a cyber-attack by employing a physics-based model of the system is a suitable framework to quantify cybersecurity risk in nuclear power plants. In addition to the plant dynamics, it is also important to model the strategies of the attackers and plant operators for an effective cybersecurity risk assessment. Game theory provides a set of necessary tools to model such strategic interactions. In this research, a framework that integrates dynamic probabilistic risk assessment with game theory for cybersecurity risk analysis in nuclear power plants is presented. The mathematical formulation is derived based on the theory of continuous event trees. We propose a game theory based action model, that utilizes physics-based rewards to define the strategies of attackers and operators at every decision epoch. As a case study, the risk associated with cyber-attacks on the digital components in the secondary side of a pressurized water reactor is studied using a reduced order model. A set of attacker actions and a set of operator actions are defined for the system. The operator and attacker interactions were modelled using simultaneous game, their action policies were computed using the concept of mixed strategy Nash equilibrium and the evolution of the system was studied.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING

Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Automated Data Analysis in In-Service Nuclear Power Plant Inspections

The commercial nuclear power industry is facing a potential shortage of certified nondestructive evaluation (NDE) analysts to meet future in-service inspection demands. Automated data analysis (ADA) currently supports human inspectors in tasks such as eddy current evaluations for steam generator examinations. Machine learning (ML) systems are nearing the capability to pass performance demonstration tests for ultrasonic testing (UT) inspections of reactor pressure vessel upper head penetrations in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Current research and development is focused on assisted analysis (AA) of ADA versus fully automated examinations. This presentation will cover assessment of ML flaw detection on dissimilar metal weld (DMW) piping joints.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE

Reinforcement Learning for Anomaly Detection in Nuclear Power Plant Operation and Maintenance

In nuclear power plants (NPPs), timely identification of sensor and human errors is critical to ensure safe and efficient plant operations. Anomaly detection models can be employed for this task. However, traditional anomaly detection approaches may have high dependency on labeled datasets and struggle with adaptability in complex, dynamic environments. Reinforcement learning (RL) has demonstrated significant potential in fault diagnosis and anomaly detection; however, its application to anomaly detection in NPPs remains a relatively underexplored research direction. Hence, to address this gap, in this study, we present a novel physics-informed reinforcement learning model, PIRL-AD: Physics-Informed Reinforcement Learning for Anomaly Detection, that integrates domain knowledge from calorimetric equations into the RL framework for enhanced sensor and human error anomaly detection. We evaluate the performance of PIRL-AD against a non-physics informed RL benchmark and a support vector machine (SVM) on data collected from a forced flow loop testbed. Experimental results suggest that PIRL-AD outperforms other baselines on a range of anomalous datasets that include both sensor and human-induced anomalies across key performance metrics, statistically outperforming the RL and SVM benchmarks with respect to geometric mean (respectively, 92.96% vs. 91.06% vs. 83.01%) and F1-score (respectively, 89.23% vs. 86.98% vs. 77.01%). Furthermore, the findings suggest the potential of physics-integrated reinforcement learning models for enhanced anomaly detection performance in NPPs.

Reinforcement learning

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Nuclear Power Plant (Rev. 1)

With threats to nuclear facilities continuously evolving, the development and implementation of insider threat mitigation programs (ITMPs) are increasingly important. The Office of International Nuclear Security (INS) within the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA’s) developed Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at an International Nuclear Power Plant to assist newcomers and existing nuclear power plant (NPP) operators in addressing insider threats and establishing effective response measures for insider activities.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P

Robotic automation of maintenance work in nuclear power plants a cross-sector survey and roadmap

Nuclear power plants face increasing cost pressures, workforce constraints (aging workforce and skilled labor shortages), and safety requirements that are accelerating interest in robotic systems for inspection and maintenance. We conducted semi-structured interviews with personnel from seven U.S. nuclear utilities and compared deployment models, operational use cases, and integration practices with those reported by participants in the oil, gas, and petrochemical sector. In nuclear plants, robotic use remains concentrated in inspection—particularly indoor unmanned aerial vehicles and submersible remotely operated vehicles—with limited application to physical maintenance tasks. Reported near-term value includes reduced radiological and industrial risk, reduced outage labor, and improved data for planning and condition assessment. Key barriers include integration and data-interoperability constraints, operator qualification requirements, cybersecurity review burden, and difficulty demonstrating reliability in plant-representative environments. Cross-sector benchmarking highlights organizational and deployment practices that may help nuclear plants scale from pilots to routine use. We propose a deployment-oriented roadmap emphasizing modular payload strategies, representative qualification pathways and testing environments, and improved data governance to support safe and economically justified expansion of robotics in operating nuclear power plants.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS

Harvesting Reactor Pressure Vessel Beltline Material from the Decommissioned Zion Nuclear Power Plant Unit 1

The decommissioning of the Zion Nuclear Power Plant (NPP) provided a unique opportunity to harvest and study service-aged reactor pressure vessel (RPV) beltline materials. This work, conducted through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, aims to improve the understanding of radiation-induced embrittlement to support extended nuclear plant operations. Material segments containing the Linde 80 flux, wire heat 72105 (WF-70) beltline weld and the A533B Heat B7835-1 base metal, obtained from the intermediate shell region with a peak fluence of 0.7 × 10 19 n/cm 2 (E > 1.0 MeV), were extracted, cut into blocks, and machined into test specimens for mechanical and microstructural characterization. The segmentation process involved oxy-propane torch-cutting, followed by precision machining using wire saws and electrical discharge machining (EDM). A chemical composition analysis confirmed the expected variations in alloying elements, with copper levels being notably higher in the weld metal. The harvested specimens enable a detailed evaluation of through-wall embrittlement gradients, a comparison with the existing surveillance data, and the validation of predictive embrittlement models. This study provides critical data for assessing long-term reactor vessel integrity, informing aging-management strategies, and supporting regulatory decisions to extend the life of nuclear plants. This article is a revised and expanded version of a paper entitled, “Current Status of the Characterization of RPV Materials Harvested from the Decommissioned Zion Unit 1 Nuclear Power Plant”, PVP2017-65090, which was accepted and presented at the ASME 2017 Pressure Vessels and Piping Conference, Waikoloa, HI, USA, 16–20 July 2017.

harvesting beltline material

A Reinforcement Learning Approach to Augment Conventional PID Control in Nuclear Power Plant Transient Operation

The ability of nuclear reactors to operate their power conversion cycles more flexibly will enhance their value to energy grids with variable pricing. Current nuclear control systems are typically classical controllers that are often based on proportional-integral-derivative (PID) control. This paper presents a method of augmenting the existing PID control for difficult transient operations in nuclear power plants using a reinforcement learning–derived feedforward signal applied in real time. The agents, which are trained on a test thermal load-following problem, are designed to improve steam generator outlet temperature control for a range of fast load-following scenarios covering ramp rates from 9%/min to 15%/min. Several reinforcement learning algorithms were initially investigated for the training of the feedforward agents with deep Q-learning (DQN) and proximal policy optimization (PPO) networks, which were found to be the most promising. The DQN controllers utilize discrete actions, giving them a better disturbance rejection at steady state but inconsistent response to initial temperature deviations. In contrast, PPO-trained agents, which take continuous actions except for a dead zone around zero, were shown to have the best combination of high disturbance rejection at steady state and good tracking of the desired temperature value. The ability of the PPO agent was also examined, with the average time of decision making found to be on the order of 1 ms. The fault properties of the controller under the loss of the reinforcement learning agent feedforward signal were also examined. The controller showed strong performance in situations of “no-signal” faults. but was less good at handling “stuck-at” faults, where the feedforward signal remains at a set value. In both cases, however, the PID was able to successfully maintain stability, eventually returning the system to a steady state. It is hoped that this work will allow for the proposed control architecture to be examined for more difficult control problems such that it may eventually be used to adapt existing nuclear plants for more aggressive load-following on grids of the future.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Capability Building Progression of an Insider Threat Mitigation Program at International Nuclear Power Plant

With threats to nuclear facilities continuously evolving, the development and implementation of insider threat mitigation programs is increasingly important. The Office of International Nuclear Security within the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration (DOE/NNSA’s) developed the “Insider Threat Mitigation Program: Facility Implementation Handbook” to assist organizations to be better positioned to minimize the risks posed by malicious insiders. The handbook identified eight elements that contribute to the development and implementation of insider threat mitigation programs. This report outlines the development of a capability building progression of an insider threat mitigation program at international nuclear power plants. This information can be stand-alone or be accompanied by a technical exchange with subject matter experts to support development and implementation of programs with interested international partners.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Automated Waterbox Inspection for Nuclear Power Plants Using Computer Vision - Based Change Detection

Nuclear power plant waterboxes require regular inspection for leaks, missing components, and structural damage during maintenance outages. Traditional manual inspection is time-consuming and poses safety risks from confined space entry. We developed an automated computer vision system for drone-based waterbox inspection in partnership with Florida Light and Power. Our approach uses feature detection and matching to identify critical changes between baseline and current inspection images, automatically flagging additions (leaks/debris), removals (missing plugs), and translations (displaced components) while compensating for drone movement and environmental variations. We systematically evaluated six feature matching methods, from classical approaches (SIFT+BF) to state-of-the-art neural networks (SuperPoint+SuperGlue), using both standard benchmarks (HPatches) and waterbox-specific validation with real-world augmentations. SuperPoint+SuperGlue achieved superior performance with 7.82 pixels RMSE and 100% success rate—2.8x better accuracy than our baseline. While the pre-trained model has commercial licensing restrictions for nuclear deployment, our findings validate this architecture for custom training. We implemented a real-time GUI demonstrating the SIFT+BF approach for immediate deployment, processing drone feeds at 30 FPS with color-coded change visualization. Future work includes training a custom SuperPoint+SuperGlue model on waterbox data and integrating Vision-Language Models for automated reporting and maintenance guidance.

46 - INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AN

One Man’s Pirate is Another Man’s . . . Nuclear Terrorist? Evaluating the Act of Piracy Against Floating Nuclear Power Plants on the High Seas

The lack of international consensus about whether a floating nuclear power plant is a facility or vessel presents an ambiguity about a pirate's status if they board a floating nuclear power plant, As piracy continues to be a concern for maritime security, the deployment of floating nuclear power plants (FNPPs) on the high seas raises questions about laws on piracy.

Fialkoff, Marc [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORN

AI for Interpreting Nuclear Power Plant Documents for Power Uprates

To reduce the cost and time needed for regulatory compliance, nuclear power plants (NPPs) can utilize artificial intelligence (AI) to assist in interpreting complex and voluminous documents that typically span thousands of pages. Usually, the process of interpreting a plant’s technical specifications (TSs) and associated documents is labor intensive. This study aims to understand what processes state-of-the-art large language models (LLMs) can automate and to identify the pitfalls associated with using LLMs to reduce human labor costs and time. This research uses a recent AI technology called retrieval augmented generation (RAG), which retrieves pages of information from TSs and associated documents to assist with NPP power uprates (cleared to produce more power). LLMs are integral to RAG because they create human-like responses based on the retrieved information, aiding in the interpretation and application processes. A baseline case demonstrates how LLMs can operate successfully for a power uprate application. Then five use cases show five types of potential failures: (1) RAG retrieving the incorrect information, (2) RAG misinterpreting the retrieved information, (3) RAG relying on knowledge not contained in the retrieved information, (4) RAG hallucinating, and (5) RAG refusing to answer. The results of the five use cases suggest that automating the human interpretation of TSs and associated documents with AI should be approached with caution. A subject-matter expert reviewed the AI outputs from the five use cases and concluded that an LLM can produce technical information that is needed to produce power uprate applications in certain instances.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN

Potential of deep learning methods to enhance satellite-based monitoring of nuclear power plants focusing on remote operation evaluations

The anticipated expansion of the nuclear industry and the deployment of new nuclear reactors (200 + GW of new nuclear capacity by 2050) require the development of monitoring systems that align with safety and security concerns, providing enhanced evaluation capabilities. A remote monitoring system using satellites and deep learning techniques was evaluated for its ability to detect anomalies and capture various features of nuclear reactors independently of the conditions on the ground. Satellite images of current operational and under-construction nuclear power plants were collected from Google Earth Pro as a surrogate database. Subsequently, five datasets were created from the collected images. Transfer learning technique was used for several classification tasks utilizing VGG16, ResNet50V2, Xception, DenseNet121, and MobileNetV2 pre-trained models. In the first task, the capability of the monitoring system to detect abnormal conditions or processes in a nuclear power plant was investigated. In the second task, the ability to capture operational features remotely was examined. As an example, for the purposes of this study, these features included classifying reactors based on type, power range, or onsite condition. Several evaluation metrics were used to compare the performance of the pre-trained models and the overall monitoring system. Here, the evaluation results demonstrated that deep learning techniques and pre-trained models applied to satellite images have the potential to facilitate further and expand capabilities in monitoring systems to assess plant operation details.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Operating Experience Data Analysis for Digital Instrumentation and Control System Reliability and Risk Assessment in Nuclear Power Plants

The implementation of advanced digital instrumentation and control (DI&C) systems in U.S. nuclear power plants (NPPs) can bring significant advancements in reliability, monitoring, and control capabilities. However, these systems also introduce new challenges, particularly in assessing risks such as common-cause failures (CCFs) and establishing robust reliability estimates for DI&C components. Addressing these challenges is critical for ensuring the safe and efficient operation of NPPs. Recently, Idaho National Laboratory was tasked by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) to conduct a DI&C reliability study using operating experience data from the nuclear industry. The two operating experience data sources for the study are the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations’ Industry Reporting and Information System (IRIS) and the NRC’s Licensee Event Report database which is hosted at Idaho National Laboratory at https://lersearch.inl.gov/LERSearchCriteria.aspx. This report provides a comprehensive examination of DI&C systems, including their architecture, operational advantages, and associated challenges. It reviews existing industry DI&C studies and failure mode taxonomies, along with reliability data from various industries. Through a detailed analysis of these databases, the study provides insights into DI&C system performance. Considerations should be given to incorporate DI&C failure data into the NRC's Integrated Data Collection and Coding System and updating the Reliability and Availability Data System to support ongoing DI&C reliability studies. Recommendations are also provided for modeling DI&C reliability and CCF in probabilistic risk assessment, thereby supporting risk-informed decision-making and enhancing the reliability and safety of NPPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Hazard and risk analysis framework for nuclear power plant–based integrated energy systems

Employing integrated energy systems (IESs) with nuclear power plants (NPPs) can improve NPP utilization by leveraging dedicated thermal and electric power delivery, but it may also increase operational safety risks. This paper presents a framework to identify and quantify hazards and risks for such IESs. The framework combines accidentology to review past industrial accidents with failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify potential future incidents. Hydrogen explosion and toxic chemical release hazards are of particular concern. Explosion consequences are quantified using the Bauwens-Dorofeev (Bauwens) and trinitrotoluene equivalent mass (TNT-EM) methods, while chemical release consequences are computed using the Gaussian atmospheric dispersion method. Operational disturbances from direct electrical and thermal integration that may affect NPP safety are modeled using probabilistic risk analysis (PRA). Hazards and risks are then evaluated for regulatory compliance. The framework is applied to IESs comprising pressurized or boiling water reactors supplying three levels of thermal and electrical power to industrial customers. Case studies include high-temperature steam electrolysis hydrogen plants of varying capacities and a synthetic fuel production plant. Sensitivity analysis examines piping component failures in the PRA model as a precursor to cost estimation for thermal extraction line design. Additionally, Fussel-Vessely (FV) and risk increase importance (RII) measures identify risk-informed design improvements for the thermal extraction system. FMEA highlights hazards such as loss of offsite power, prompt loss of electrical load, loss of thermal output, and immediate steam diversion, in addition to hydrogen explosions and toxic chemical releases. Both Bauwens and TNT-EM methods suggest maintaining several hundred meters of separation between the NPP and hydrogen facility to mitigate explosion risks. PRA results show a maximum initiating event frequency increase of 1.15% and an overall risk increase of 0.28%. Importance measure analysis identifies upstream pipe leak isolation components as critical. Evaluating the results against safety regulations, it is concluded that hazards and risks can be managed to comply with regulations through risk-informed thermal and electrical connection designs, component selection, maintenance programs, and safe separation distances between NPPs and integrated industrial facilities.

08 - HYDROGEN