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Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise

Safety Expertise and the Perils of Novelty

Emerging aviation markets such as urban air mobility are giving rise to new technologies and means of operation. However, novelty may hide ‘unknown unknowns,’ raising new hazards. This paper examines how expertise and safety techniques enable transformative technologies such as reduced crew operations, hybrid wing-borne and rotor-born flight, federated air traffic services, and urban operations. We explore how analysts use expertise to address common-cause failures, collect and interpret safety data, and perform exacting tradeoffs between dissimilarity, redundancy, independence, and diversity (human, process lifecycle, or otherwise) to ensure safety. When novelty is present, analysts might not possess the expertise needed to fully understand the implications of design decisions and tradeoffs being made, especially in early lifecycle phases, on emergent properties such as safety. Safety expertise must be carefully cultivated. The conflicting views of safety experts must be unpacked to identify the divergence in fundamental assumptions, models, means, and methods that may be causing them. Once systems venture beyond the basis of what safety expertise can reliably guarantee, projects take on risk that must be managed. The paper contains key takeaways and actionable recommendations for novel OEMs and regulators touching on topics such as robust monitoring; clear and transparent reporting; incremental approaches to fielding novel systems in hazard-rich, risk-tolerant environments; the cultivation of safety culture and expertise in an organization; and the use of scientific study to reduce epistemic uncertainty in novel operations with new technologies. Since excessive novelty in aviation can undermine the current foundation of safety, humility and incrementalism are necessary to enable emerging aviation markets safely.

safety expertise

Resolution of a target-tracking optical novelty filter

The resolution of a target-tracking optical novelty filter is discussed in terms of the response time of the nonlinear medium, the speed of the target, and the resolution of the input device. Optical novelty filters using a faster nonlinear medium may have a higher output resolution. This is particularly true in the case of tracking high-speed targets. The potential of implementing high-resolution optical novelty filters using photorefractive GaAs is investigated experimentally.

Liu, Duncan T. H.

Estimating satellite pose and motion parameters using a novelty filter and neural net tracker

A system for determining the position, orientation and motion of a satellite with respect to a robotic spacecraft using video data is advanced. This system utilizes two levels of pose and motion estimation: an initial system which provides coarse estimates of pose and motion, and a second system which uses the coarse estimates and further processing to provide finer pose and motion estimates. The present paper emphasizes the initial coarse pose and motion estimation sybsystem. This subsystem utilizes novelty detection and filtering for locating novel parts and a neural net tracker to track these parts over time. Results of using this system on a sequence of images of a spin stabilized satellite are presented.

Lee, Andrew J.

Optical Correlator Performs Novelty Filtering

Experimental real-time optical correlator performs correlation and novelty filtering in photorefractive crystal. Crystal oriented enabling cross-polarization diffraction: together with polarizing beam splitter, increases signal-to-noise ratio. Laser and optical components expand, collimate, and divide laser beam.

Liu, Duncan Tsuen-Hsi

Semi-Supervised Novelty Detection with Adaptive Eigenbases, and Application to Radio Transients

We present a semi-supervised online method for novelty detection and evaluate its performance for radio astronomy time series data. Our approach uses adaptive eigenbases to combine 1) prior knowledge about uninteresting signals with 2) online estimation of the current data properties to enable highly sensitive and precise detection of novel signals. We apply the method to the problem of detecting fast transient radio anomalies and compare it to current alternative algorithms. Tests based on observations from the Parkes Multibeam Survey show both effective detection of interesting rare events and robustness to known false alarm anomalies.

anomaly detection

Stimulus novelty, task relevance and the visual evoked potential in man

The effect of task relevance on P3 (waveform of human evoked potential) waves and the methodologies used to deal with them are outlined. Visual evoked potentials (VEPs) were recorded from normal adult subjects performing in a visual discrimination task. Subjects counted the number of presentations of the numeral 4 which was interposed rarely and randomly within a sequence of tachistoscopically flashed background stimuli. Intrusive, task-irrelevant (not counted) stimuli were also interspersed rarely and randomly in the sequence of 2s; these stimuli were of two types: simples, which were easily recognizable, and novels, which were completely unrecognizable. It was found that the simples and the counted 4s evoked posteriorly distributed P3 waves while the irrelevant novels evoked large, frontally distributed P3 waves. These large, frontal P3 waves to novels were also found to be preceded by large N2 waves. These findings indicate that the P3 wave is not a unitary phenomenon but should be considered in terms of a family of waves, differing in their brain generators and in their psychological correlates.

Courchesne, E.

Stimulus novelty, task relevance and the visual evoked potential in man

The visual evoked potential (VEP) to rare, task-relevant (counted) numerical stimuli was compared with VEPs to rare, task-irrelevant stimuli, both being randomly interspersed within a sequence of tachistoscopically-flashed background numbers. These task-irrelevant stimuli were of two classes: (1) easily recognizable (e.g., simple geometric shapes) and (2) completely novel (i.e., complex, colorful abstract-type drawings which were unrecognizable). It was found that such novel stimuli did, in fact, evoke large P3 waves, but they had different scalp distributions from those which followed the task-relevant stimuli. This indicates that at least two types of late positive P3 waves exist, differing both in brain source and psychological correlates.

Courchesne, E.

Motion detection, novelty filtering, and target tracking using an interferometric technique with a GaAs phase conjugate mirror

A method and apparatus is disclosed for detecting and tracking moving objects in a noise environment cluttered with fast-and slow-moving objects and other time-varying background. A pair of phase conjugate light beams carrying the same spatial information commonly cancel each other out through an image subtraction process in a phase conjugate interferometer, wherein gratings are formed in a fast photo-refractive phase conjugate mirror material. In the steady state, there is no output. When the optical path of one of the two phase conjugate beams is suddenly changed, the return beam loses its phase conjugate nature and the inter-ferometer is out of balance, resulting in an observable output. The observable output lasts until the phase conjugate nature of the beam has recovered. The observable time of the output signal is roughly equal to the formation time of the grating. If the optical path changing time is slower than the formation time, the change of optical path becomes unobservable, because the index grating can follow the change. Thus, objects traveling at speeds which result in a path changing time which is slower than the formation time are not observable and do not clutter the output image view.

Cheng, Li-Jen

Novelty filtered optical correlator using photorefractive crystal

We demonstrate a new optical correlator in which the correlation peak intensity is increased when the matched input object is moving. The basic configuration of the correlator is the same as a VanderLugt optical correlator consisting of a photorefractive crystal. The principal of this new correlator is based on the dynamic grating erasure property of photorefractive materials. The detail of this principle is described.

Liu, Duncan T. H.

Motion detection, novelty filtering, and target tracking using an interferometric technique with GaAs phase conjugate mirror

A method and apparatus for detecting and tracking moving objects in a noise environment cluttered with fast- and slow-moving objects and other time-varying background. A pair of phase conjugate light beams carrying the same spatial information commonly cancel each other out through an image subtraction process in a phase conjugate interferometer, wherein gratings are formed in a fast photorefractive phase conjugate mirror material. In the steady state, there is no output. When the optical path of one of the two phase conjugate beams is suddenly changed, the return beam loses its phase conjugate nature and the interferometer is out of balance, resulting in an observable output. The observable output lasts until the phase conjugate nature of the beam has recovered. The observable time of the output signal is roughly equal to the formation time of the grating. If the optical path changing time is slower than the formation time, the change of optical path becomes unobservable, because the index grating can follow the change. Thus, objects traveling at speeds which result in a path changing time which is slower than the formation time are not observable and do not clutter the output image view.

Cheng, Li-Jen

nu-Anomica: A Fast Support Vector Based Novelty Detection Technique

In this paper we propose nu-Anomica, a novel anomaly detection technique that can be trained on huge data sets with much reduced running time compared to the benchmark one-class Support Vector Machines algorithm. In -Anomica, the idea is to train the machine such that it can provide a close approximation to the exact decision plane using fewer training points and without losing much of the generalization performance of the classical approach. We have tested the proposed algorithm on a variety of continuous data sets under different conditions. We show that under all test conditions the developed procedure closely preserves the accuracy of standard one-class Support Vector Machines while reducing both the training time and the test time by 5 - 20 times.

Das, Santanu

Semi-Supervised Eigenbasis Novelty Detection

Recent discoveries in high-time-resolution radio astronomy data have focused attention on a new class of events. Fast transients are rare pulses of radio frequency energy lasting from microseconds to seconds that might be produced by a variety of exotic astrophysical phenomena. For example, X-ray bursts, neutron stars, and active galactic nuclei are all possible sources of short-duration, transient radio signals. It is difficult to anticipate where such signals might appear, and they are most commonly discovered through analysis of high-time- resolution data that had been collected for other purposes. Transients are often faint and difficult to detect, so improved detection algorithms can directly benefit the science yield of all such commensal monitoring. A new detection algorithm learns a low-dimensional linear manifold for describing the normal data. High reconstruction error indicates a novel signal that does not match the patterns of normal data. One unsupervised portion of the manifold model adapts its representation in response to recent data. A second supervised portion of the model is made of a basis trained in advance using labeled examples of RFI; this prevents false positives due to these events. For a linear model, an orthonormalization operation is used to combine these bases prior to the anomaly detection decision. Another novel aspect of the approach lies in combining basis vectors learned in an unsupervised, online fashion from the data stream with supervised basis vectors learned in advance from known examples of false alarms. Adaptive, data-driven detection is achieved that is also informed by existing domain knowledge about signals that may be statistically anomalous, but are not interesting and should therefore be ignored. The method was evaluated using data from the Parkes Multibeam Survey. This data set was originally collected to search for pulsars, which are astronomical sources that emit radio pulses at regular periods. However, several non-pulsar anomalies have recently been discovered in this dataset, making it a compelling test case. By explicitly filtering known false alarm patterns, the approach yields significantly better performance than current transient detection methods.

Wagstaff, Kiri L.