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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2025

Explainable AI for Multivariate Time Series Pattern Exploration: Latent Space Visual Analytics With Temporal Fusion Transformer and Variational Autoencoders in Power Grid Event Diagnosis

Detecting and analyzing complex patterns in multivariate time-series data is crucial for decision-making in urban and environmental system operations. However, challenges arise from the high dimensionality, intricate complexity, and interconnected nature of complex patterns, which hinder the understanding of their underlying physical processes. Existing AI methods often face limitations in interpretability, computational efficiency, and scalability, reducing their applicability in real-world scenarios. This paper proposes a novel visual analytics framework that integrates two generative AI models, Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) and Variational Autoencoders (VAEs), to reduce complex patterns into lower-dimensional latent spaces and visualize them in 2D using dimensionality reduction techniques such as PCA, t-SNE, and UMAP with DBSCAN. These visualizations, presented through coordinated and interactive views and tailored glyphs, enable intuitive exploration of complex multivariate temporal patterns, identifying patterns’ similarities and uncover their potential correlations for a better interpretability of the AI outputs. The framework is demonstrated through a case study on power grid signal data, where it identifies multi-label grid event signatures, including faults and anomalies with diverse root causes. Additionally, novel metrics and visualizations are introduced to validate the models and assess the performance, efficiency, and consistency of latent maps generated by VAE, which have been utilized in prior studies for latent space cartography and used as a benchmark in this study, and the emerging TFT architecture under various configurations. These analyses provide actionable insights for model parameter tuning and reliability improvements. Comparative results highlight that TFT achieves shorter run times and superior scalability to diverse time-series data shapes compared to VAE. This work advances fault diagnosis in multivariate time series, fostering explainable AI to support critical system operations.

Explainable AI↗

NASA NTRS2010

Fast and Flexible Multivariate Time Series Subsequence Search

Multivariate Time-Series (MTS) are ubiquitous, and are generated in areas as disparate as sensor recordings in aerospace systems, music and video streams, medical monitoring, and financial systems. Domain experts are often interested in searching for interesting multivariate patterns from these MTS databases which often contain several gigabytes of data. Surprisingly, research on MTS search is very limited. Most of the existing work only supports queries with the same length of data, or queries on a fixed set of variables. In this paper, we propose an efficient and flexible subsequence search framework for massive MTS databases, that, for the first time, enables querying on any subset of variables with arbitrary time delays between them. We propose two algorithms to solve this problem (1) a List Based Search (LBS) algorithm which uses sorted lists for indexing, and (2) a R*-tree Based Search (RBS) which uses Minimum Bounding Rectangles (MBR) to organize the subsequences. Both algorithms guarantee that all matching patterns within the specified thresholds will be returned (no false dismissals). The very few false alarms can be removed by a post-processing step. Since our framework is also capable of Univariate Time-Series (UTS) subsequence search, we first demonstrate the efficiency of our algorithms on several UTS datasets previously used in the literature. We follow this up with experiments using two large MTS databases from the aviation domain, each containing several millions of observations. Both these tests show that our algorithms have very high prune rates (>99%) thus needing actual disk access for only less than 1% of the observations. To the best of our knowledge, MTS subsequence search has never been attempted on datasets of the size we have used in this paper.

Bhaduri, Kanishka↗

NASA NTRS2010

Fast Multivariate Search on Large Aviation Datasets

Bhaduri, Kanishka↗

DOE OSTI2025

GenAI-Based Digital Twins Aided Data Augmentation Increases Accuracy in Real-Time Cokurtosis-Based Anomaly Detection of Wearable Data

Early detection of potential infectious disease outbreaks is crucial for developing effective interventions. In this study, we introduce advanced anomaly detection methods tailored for health datasets collected from wearables, offering insights at both individual and population levels. Leveraging real-world physiological data from wearables, including heart rate and activity, we developed a framework for the early detection of infection in individuals. Despite the availability of data from recent pandemics, substantial gaps remain in data collection, hindering method development. To bridge this gap, we utilized Wasserstein Generative Adversarial Networks (WGANs) to generate realistic synthetic wearable data, augmenting our dataset for training. Subsequently, we use these augmented datasets to implement a cokurtosis-based technique for anomaly detection in multivariate time-series data. Our approach includes a comprehensive assessment of uncertainties in synthetic data compared to the actual data upon which it was modeled, as well as the uncertainty associated with fine-tuning anomaly detection thresholds in physiological measurements. Through our work, we present an enhanced method for early anomaly detection in multivariate datasets, with promising applications in healthcare and beyond. This framework could revolutionize early detection strategies and significantly impact public health response efforts in future pandemics.

Data-Driven Digital Twins↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated Framework for Groundwater Monitoring Using DWT with LSTM and Transformers

Environmental monitoring is critical for safeguarding public health and ecological well-being. Traditional data structuring and workflow monitoring methods consume significant time and effort, hindering timely insights and effective decision-making. Our study addresses this challenge by presenting an AI framework that automates data cleaning, structuring, and modeling processes, specifically targeting applications in groundwater monitoring. By leveraging automation for data processing and model training, our framework establishes a novel and efficient paradigm for environmental monitoring, with its potential application to the vast network of over a hundred Department of Energy Environmental Management (DoE-EM) cleanup sites across the country. It analyzes data streams from a network of groundwater Internet-of-Things (IoT) sensors deployed at the Savannah River Site (SRS) for prediction modeling. This allows human experts to focus on analysis and decision-making, ultimately leading to better environmental outcomes.The framework employs multivariate time-series forecasting methods to study and model the behavior of varying chemical analytes. The continuous learning process is enabled by utilizing deep learning techniques. It allows the framework to become more nuanced in its analysis over time, adapting to the specific characteristics of the environmental site and the evolving nature of contaminant behavior. Deep learning models known for sequence modeling, LSTM, and Transformers are employed for time series forecasting. Data processing and structuring are essential components significantly impacting the final model's performance. This hypothesis was proven by presenting a comparative analysis of model performance with processed and unprocessed data. The feature engineering approach utilized was the Discrete Wavelet Transform, which works well with time series data.

Discrete Wavelet Transform (DWT)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Unsupervised anomaly clustering via offset alignment in multivariate grid sensing data

Modern industries increasingly rely on multi-sensor technologies to acquire complex, high-dimensional data streams, enabling advanced monitoring and control systems. One critical application is online anomaly detection in electrical smart grids, where multivariate and multimodal sensing technologies play a vital role. However, detecting anomalies in such time-series data is challenging due to their inherent temporal dependencies and stochastic behavior. Traditional approaches based on supervised and semi-supervised learning methods depend on labeled datasets, which are often unavailable in real-world scenarios. While unsupervised methods have emerged as promising alternatives, these methods are highly susceptible to noise and outliers commonly present in sensing applications. Furthermore, deep learning-based anomaly detection methods, despite their performance, are often criticized for their black-box nature, limiting their applicability in safety-critical and online environments where interpretability and explainability are paramount. In this work, we propose an unsupervised anomaly clustering method leveraging a cyclic alignment-based offset detection algorithm for multivariate time-series signals. The proposed method is applied to multivariate data collected from vibrational, voltage, and magnetic field sensors deployed in a local grid substation. Our results demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm in accurately clustering various anomalies/events across different sensing modalities. Additionally, we compare the effectiveness of the proposed approach against a simple pattern-based anomaly detection method, which performs well for univariate data but fails to generalize to multivariate and multimodal time-series data.

Mukherjee, Subrata [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000309930338)↗

NASA NTRS1982

Identification of multivariable high performance turbofan engine dynamics from closed loop data

The multivariable instrumental variable/approximate maximum likelihood (IV/AML) method or recursive time-series analysis is used to identify the multivariable (four inputs-three outputs) dynamics of the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine. A detailed nonlinear engine simulation is used to determine linear engine model structures and parameters at an operating point using open loop data. Also, the IV/AML method is used in a direct identification mode to identify models from actual closed loop engine test data. Models identified from simulated and test data are compared to determine a final model structure and parameterization that can predict engine response for a wide class of inputs. The ability of the IV/AML algorithm to identify useful dynamic models from engine test data is assessed.

Merrill, W.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Identification of multivariable high performance turbofan engine dynamics from closed loop data

The multivariable instrumental variable/approximate maximum likelihood (IV/AML) method of recursive time-series analysis is used to identify the multivariable (four inputs-three outputs) dynamics of the Pratt and Whitney F100 engine. A detailed nonlinear engine simulation is used to determine linear engine model structures and parameters at an operating point using open loop data. Also, the IV/AML method is used in a direct identification made to identify models from actual closed loop engine test data. Models identified from simulated and test data are compared to determine a final model structure and parameterization that can predict engine response for a wide class of inputs. The ability of the IV/AML algorithm to identify useful dynamic models from engine test data is assessed. Previously announced in STAR as N82-20339

Merrill, W.↗

NASA NTRS2001

The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA)

The process by which raw astronomical data acquisition is transformed into scientifically meaningful results and interpretation typically involves many statistical steps. Traditional astronomy limits itself to a narrow range of old and familiar statistical methods: means and standard deviations; least-squares methods like chi(sup 2) minimization; and simple nonparametric procedures such as the Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests. These tools are often inadequate for the complex problems and datasets under investigations, and recent years have witnessed an increased usage of maximum-likelihood, survival analysis, multivariate analysis, wavelet and advanced time-series methods. The Statistical Consulting Center for Astronomy (SCCA) assisted astronomers with the use of sophisticated tools, and to match these tools with specific problems. The SCCA operated with two professors of statistics and a professor of astronomy working together. Questions were received by e-mail, and were discussed in detail with the questioner. Summaries of those questions and answers leading to new approaches were posted on the Web (www.state.psu.edu/ mga/SCCA). In addition to serving individual astronomers, the SCCA established a Web site for general use that provides hypertext links to selected on-line public-domain statistical software and services. The StatCodes site (www.astro.psu.edu/statcodes) provides over 200 links in the areas of: Bayesian statistics; censored and truncated data; correlation and regression, density estimation and smoothing, general statistics packages and information; image analysis; interactive Web tools; multivariate analysis; multivariate clustering and classification; nonparametric analysis; software written by astronomers; spatial statistics; statistical distributions; time series analysis; and visualization tools. StatCodes has received a remarkable high and constant hit rate of 250 hits/week (over 10,000/year) since its inception in mid-1997. It is of interest to scientists both within and outside of astronomy. The most popular sections are multivariate techniques, image analysis, and time series analysis. Hundreds of copies of the ASURV, SLOPES and CENS-TAU codes developed by SCCA scientists were also downloaded from the StatCodes site. In addition to formal SCCA duties, SCCA scientists continued a variety of related activities in astrostatistics, including refereeing of statistically oriented papers submitted to the Astrophysical Journal, talks in meetings including Feigelson's talk to science journalists entitled "The reemergence of astrostatistics" at the American Association for the Advancement of Science meeting, and published papers of astrostatistical content.

Akritas, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2019

MARGInS Model-Based Analysis of Realizable Goals in Systems

The high complexity of modern aircraft and spacecraft requires elaborate Verification and Validation (V&V) approaches to make sure that such complex systems work properly and reliably. MARGInS is a framework for the analysis, understanding, and prediction of the behavior of a complex, hybrid system. MARGInS contains a set of machine learning and statistical algorithms for multivariate clustering, treatment learning, critical factor determination, time-series analysis, event prediction, and safety-boundary detection and characterization. The framework supports system testing and can be configured to find novel features in test suites, determine classes of behavior, propose new experiments that can efficiently explore and characterize the boundaries between classes of system behavior, and to create visualizations and reports.

He, Yuning↗

NASA NTRS2001

Surface Elevation Changes in West Antarctica from Satellite Altimetry: Mass Balance Implications

Time-series of surface elevation change, which are constructed from 7-years (1992-1999) of ERS-1 and 2 satellite radar altimeter data of Antarctica, show significant seasonal, inter-annual, and long-term changes. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 degrees S and fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt) and account for seasonal changes. On the major Ronne, Filchner, and Ronne ice shelves, the dH/dt are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm a(exp -1) surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm a(exp -1) decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. Significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers. Significant increases are obtained over most of the other grounded ice in Marie Byrd Land, the Antarctic Peninsula, and Coates Land. Over the sector from 85 degrees W to 115 degrees W, which includes the Pine Island and Thwaites basins, the average elevation is significantly decreasing by 8.1 cm a(exp -1). The corresponding ice thickness change is about -11 cm a(exp -1), with a corresponding mass loss of 82 Gt a(exp -1), and a 0.22 mm a(exp -1) contribution to global sea level rise. In terms of elevation change, the decrease in the Pine Island-Thwaites sector is largely balanced by the increase in the Marie Byrd Land, but only balanced by about 1/4 in terms of ice thickness change and contribution to sea level rise. The overall average elevation change for the grounded ice is + 1.2 cm a(exp -1). Using an average bedrock uplift of 2.5 cm a(exp -1), implies an average ice thickness decrease of 1.3 cm a(exp -1), a mass loss of 22 Gt a(exp -1), and a 0.06 mm a(exp -1) contribution to global sea level rise.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS1991

Regional climate change predictions from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies high resolution GCM

A new diagnostic tool is developed for examining relationships between the synoptic scale circulation and regional temperature distributions in GCMs. The 4 x 5 deg GISS GCM is shown to produce accurate simulations of the variance in the synoptic scale sea level pressure distribution over the U.S. An analysis of the observational data set from the National Meteorological Center (NMC) also shows a strong relationship between the synoptic circulation and grid point temperatures. This relationship is demonstrated by deriving transfer functions between a time-series of circulation parameters and temperatures at individual grid points. The circulation parameters are derived using rotated principal components analysis, and the temperature transfer functions are based on multivariate polynomial regression models. The application of these transfer functions to the GCM circulation indicates that there is considerable spatial bias present in the GCM temperature distributions. The transfer functions are also used to indicate the possible changes in U.S. regional temperatures that could result from differences in synoptic scale circulation between a 1XCO2 and a 2xCO2 climate, using a doubled CO2 version of the same GISS GCM.

Crane, Robert G.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Modeling and control for closed environment plant production systems

A computer program was developed to study multiple crop production and control in controlled environment plant production systems. The program simulates crop growth and development under nominal and off-nominal environments. Time-series crop models for wheat (Triticum aestivum), soybean (Glycine max), and white potato (Solanum tuberosum) are integrated with a model-based predictive controller. The controller evaluates and compensates for effects of environmental disturbances on crop production scheduling. The crop models consist of a set of nonlinear polynomial equations, six for each crop, developed using multivariate polynomial regression (MPR). Simulated data from DSSAT crop models, previously modified for crop production in controlled environments with hydroponics under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, were used for the MPR fitting. The model-based predictive controller adjusts light intensity, air temperature, and carbon dioxide concentration set points in response to environmental perturbations. Control signals are determined from minimization of a cost function, which is based on the weighted control effort and squared-error between the system response and desired reference signal.

NASA Discipline Life Support Systems↗

DOE OSTI2026

Anomaly Detection for Online Monitoring of Thermocouple Sensors in the Advanced Test Reactor

This study explores data-driven anomaly detection methods to analyze sensor fail- ures in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) nuclear fuel irradiation experiments. Specifically, we examine failures of thermocouples (TCs), which are critical for mon- itoring and controlling in-reactor temperatures during operation. Failures were pri- marily observed during abrupt power transitions and manifested as sensor drop-outs, drifts, or unexplained behavior. We applied three time-series analysis techniques— rolling mean smoothing, matrix profile, and vector auto-regression (VAR)—to de- tect anomalies in TC data prior to failure events. The rolling mean method effec- tively highlighted deviations aligned with reported failures, while the matrix profile provided partial early warning but sometimes flagged normal fluctuations during power-down periods. VAR shows potential in capturing multivariate dependencies but requires further calibration. A rare case of TC drift was also documented, which did not result in failure, underscoring the challenge of building predictive models with sparse positive examples. Our findings demonstrate that traditional statistical tools can aid anomaly detection but have limited predictive power without richer training data. We propose future directions including synthetic data generation, real- time surrogate modeling, and multi-modal feature integration. This work provides a foundation for applying robust anomaly detection frameworks to mission-critical sensor systems in experimental settings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS2001

Biogeochemical Response to Mesoscale Physical Forcing in the California Current System

In the first part of the project, we investigated the local response of the coastal ocean ecosystems (changes in chlorophyll, concentration and chlorophyll, fluorescence quantum yield) to physical forcing by developing and deploying Autonomous Drifting Ocean Stations (ADOS) within several mesoscale features along the U.S. west coast. Also, we compared the temporal and spatial variability registered by sensors mounted in the drifters to that registered by the sensors mounted in the satellites in order to assess the scales of variability that are not resolved by the ocean color satellite. The second part of the project used the existing WOCE SVP Surface Lagrangian drifters to track individual water parcels through time. The individual drifter tracks were used to generate multivariate time series by interpolating/extracting the biological and physical data fields retrieved by remote sensors (ocean color, SST, wind speed and direction, wind stress curl, and sea level topography). The individual time series of the physical data (AVHRR, TOPEX, NCEP) were analyzed against the ocean color (SeaWiFS) time-series to determine the time scale of biological response to the physical forcing. The results from this part of the research is being used to compare the decorrelation scales of chlorophyll from a Lagrangian and Eulerian framework. The results from both parts of this research augmented the necessary time series data needed to investigate the interactions between the ocean mesoscale features, wind, and the biogeochemical processes. Using the historical Lagrangian data sets, we have completed a comparison of the decorrelation scales in both the Eulerian and Lagrangian reference frame for the SeaWiFS data set. We are continuing to investigate how these results might be used in objective mapping efforts.

Niiler, Pearn P.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Antarctic Ice-Sheet Mass Balance from Satellite Altimetry 1992 to 2001

A major uncertainty in understanding the causes of the current rate of sea level rise is the potential contributions from mass imbalances of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. Estimates of the current mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet are derived from surface- elevation changes obtained from 9 years of ERS - 1 & 2 radar altimeter data. Elevation time-series are created from altimeter crossovers among 90-day data periods on a 50 km grid to 81.5 S. The time series are fit with a multivariate linear/sinusoidal function to give the average rate of elevation change (dH/dt). On the major Rome-Filchner, Ross, and Amery ice shelves, the W d t are small or near zero. In contrast, the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula and along the West Antarctic coast appear to be thinning significantly, with a 23 +/- 3 cm per year surface elevation decrease on the Larsen ice shelf and a 65 +/- 4 cm per year decrease on the Dotson ice shelf. On the grounded ice, significant elevation decreases are obtained over most of the drainage basins of the Pine Island and Thwaites glaciers in West Antarctica and inland of Law Dome in East Antarctica. Significant elevation increases are observed within about 200 km of the coast around much of the rest of the ice sheet. Farther inland, the changes are a mixed pattern of increases and decreases with increases of a few centimeters per year at the highest elevations of the East Antarctic plateau. The derived elevation changes are combined with estimates of the bedrock uplift from several models to provide maps of ice thickness change. The ice thickness changes enable estimates of the ice mass balances for the major drainage basins, the overall mass balance, and the current contribution of the ice sheet to global sea level change.

Zwally, H. Jay↗

NASA NTRS2006

X-Windows PVT Widget Class

The X-Windows Process Validation Table (PVT) Widget Class ( Class is used here in the object-oriented-programming sense of the word) was devised to simplify the task of implementing network registration services for Information Sharing Protocol (ISP) graphical-user-interface (GUI) computer programs. Heretofore, ISP PVT programming tasks have required many method calls to identify, query, and interpret the connections and messages exchanged between a client and a PVT server. Normally, programmers have utilized direct access to UNIX socket libraries to implement the PVT protocol queries, necessitating the use of many lines of source code to perform frequent tasks. Now, the X-Windows PVT Widget Class encapsulates ISP client server network registration management tasks within the framework of an X Windows widget. Use of the widget framework enables an X Windows GUI program to interact with PVT services in an abstract way and in the same manner as that of other graphical widgets, making it easier to program PVT clients. Wrapping the PVT services inside the widget framework enables a programmer to treat a PVT server interface as though it were a GUI. Moreover, an alternate subclass could implement another service in a widget of the same type. This program was written by Matthew R. Barry of United Space Alliance for Johnson Space Center. For further information, contact the Johnson Technology Transfer Office at (281) 483-3809. MSC-23582 Shuttle Data Center File- Processing Tool in Java A Java-language computer program has been written to facilitate mining of data in files in the Shuttle Data Center (SDC) archives. This program can be executed on a variety of workstations or via Web-browser programs. This program is partly similar to prior C-language programs used for the same purpose, while differing from those programs in that it exploits the platform-neutrality of Java in implementing several features that are important for analysis of large sets of time-series data. The program supports regular expression queries of SDC archive files, reads the files, interleaves the time-stamped samples according to a chosen output, then transforms the results into that format. A user can choose among a variety of output file formats that are useful for diverse purposes, including plotting, Markov modeling, multivariate density estimation, and wavelet multiresolution analysis, as well as for playback of data in support of simulation and testing.

Barry, Matthew R.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Shuttle Data Center File-Processing Tool in Java

A Java-language computer program has been written to facilitate mining of data in files in the Shuttle Data Center (SDC) archives. This program can be executed on a variety of workstations or via Web-browser programs. This program is partly similar to prior C-language programs used for the same purpose, while differing from those programs in that it exploits the platform-neutrality of Java in implementing several features that are important for analysis of large sets of time-series data. The program supports regular expression queries of SDC archive files, reads the files, interleaves the time-stamped samples according to a chosen output, then transforms the results into that format. A user can choose among a variety of output file formats that are useful for diverse purposes, including plotting, Markov modeling, multivariate density estimation, and wavelet multiresolution analysis, as well as for playback of data in support of simulation and testing.

Barry, Matthew R.↗