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Exploring Multilayer Network Models to Build a Scientific Basis for Integrated Deterrence: Final Report

The emerging multipolar international security environment represents a fundamental restructuring of global nuclear balance of power to include two nuclear peer competitors, growing non-peer nuclear threats, and concerns of nuclear latency from both allies and adversaries. Conflicts in the grey zone, cyber operations, mis- and disinformation campaigns, and emerging disruptive technologies like drones, and hypersonic missiles are becoming more prevalent. These present a risk of cross-domain and multi-domain conflicts that may not follow known escalatory patterns. In order to prepare for the new deterrence environment, it is critical to have quantitative and qualitative understandings of these cross-domain conflicts, their potential for escalation, and which systems they may impact. To that end, our team created a Multi-Layer Network (MLN) model of ‘integrated deterrence’ where instruments of national power are modeled as individual network graph layers that include efforts from all domains. We then evaluate the potential for escalation against escalation scenarios. Analysis of the escalation scenarios is then used to identify insights of potential risk and escalation within integrated deterrence.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF

A simple method to derive bounds on the size and to train multilayer neural networks

A new derivation is presented for the bounds on the size of a multilayer neural network to exactly implement an arbitrary training set; namely, the training set can be implemented with zero error with two layers and with the number of the hidden-layer neurons equal to no.1 is greater than p - 1. The derivation does not require the separation of the input space by particular hyperplanes, as in previous derivations. The weights for the hidden layer can be chosen almost arbitrarily, and the weights for the output layer can be found by solving no.1 + 1 linear equations. The method presented exactly solves (M), the multilayer neural network training problem, for any arbitrary training set.

Sartori, Michael A.

Membership generation using multilayer neural network

There has been intensive research in neural network applications to pattern recognition problems. Particularly, the back-propagation network has attracted many researchers because of its outstanding performance in pattern recognition applications. In this section, we describe a new method to generate membership functions from training data using a multilayer neural network. The basic idea behind the approach is as follows. The output values of a sigmoid activation function of a neuron bear remarkable resemblance to membership values. Therefore, we can regard the sigmoid activation values as the membership values in fuzzy set theory. Thus, in order to generate class membership values, we first train a suitable multilayer network using a training algorithm such as the back-propagation algorithm. After the training procedure converges, the resulting network can be treated as a membership generation network, where the inputs are feature values and the outputs are membership values in the different classes. This method allows fairly complex membership functions to be generated because the network is highly nonlinear in general. Also, it is to be noted that the membership functions are generated from a classification point of view. For pattern recognition applications, this is highly desirable, although the membership values may not be indicative of the degree of typicality of a feature value in a particular class.

Kim, Jaeseok

Fault characterization of a multilayered perceptron network

The results of a set of simulation experiments conducted to quantify the effects of faults in a classification network implemented as a three-layered perception model are reported. The percentage of vectors misclassified by the classification network, the time taken for the network to stabilize, and the output values are measured. The results show that both transient and permanent faults have a significant impact on the performance of the network. Transient faults are also found to cause the network to be increasingly unstable as the duration of a transient is increased. The average percentage of the vectors misclassified is about 25 percent; after relearning, this is reduced to 10 percent. The impact of link faults is relatively insignificant in comparison with node faults (1 percent versus 19 percent misclassified after relearning). A study of the impact of hardware redundancy shows a linear increase in misclassifications with increasing hardware size.

Tan, Chang H.

Evaluating Direct and Indirect Influence on EV Charging Stations Across the US

The adoption of new technology for electric vehicles (EV) and mobility applications can bring underappreciated vulnerabilities to the power grid. One area of potential fraud and adversarial influence is through the business ecosystem of startups that own and deploy EV technology. Yet, there are no models or analyses that map the network of organizations and people that have direct and indirect influence over technologies currently deployed in the grid. To fill this gap, we develop a multilayer network model to measure direct and indirect influence on EV charging stations. First, we create and adversarial socio-technical network (ASTN) model via a data fusion pipeline for different US regions of interest (ROI). Then, we develop an integrated ASTN for Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, and Philadelphia. We rank EV charging companies direct influence within each geographic region as well as indirect influence via social network analysis. While some companies have strong direct and indirect influence (i.e., ChargePoint) others show a mismatch between their influence over charging stations and their position within the social network. For example, Tesla has strong direct influence on stations and weak indirect influence over competitors. In contrast, 7Charge has weak direct influence over stations, but strong indirect influence over competitors.

29 - ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY AND ECONOMY

Medics: Medical Decision Support System for Long-Duration Space Exploration

The Autonomous Medical Operations (AMO) group at NASA Ames is developing a “medical decision support system” to enable astronauts on long-duration exploration missions to operate autonomously. The system will support clinical actions by providing medical interpretation advice and procedural recommendations during emergent care and clinical work performed by crew. The current state of development of the system, called MedICS (Medical Interpretation Classification and Segmentation) includes two separate aspects: a set of machine learning diagnostic models trained to analyze organ images and patient health records, and an interface to ultrasound diagnostic hardware and to medical repositories. Three sets of images of different organs and medical records were utilized for training machine learning models for various analyses, as follows: 1. Pneumothorax condition (collapsed lung). The trained model provides a positive or negative diagnosis of the condition. 2. Carotid artery occlusion. The trained model produces a diagnosis of 5 different occlusion levels (including “normal”). 3. Ocular retinal images. The model extracts optic disc pixels (image segmentation). This is a precursor step for advanced autonomous fundus clinical evaluation algorithms to be implemented in FY20. 4. Medical health records. The model produces a differential diagnosis for any particular individual, based on symptoms and other health and demographic information. A probability is calculated for each of 25 most common conditions. The same model provides the likelihood of survival. All results are provided with a confidence level. Item 1 images were provided by the US Army and were part of a data set for the clinical treatment of injured battlefield soldiers. This condition is relevant to possible space mishaps, due to pressure management issues. Item 2 images were provided by Houston Methodist Hospital, and item 3 health records were acquired from the MIT laboratory of computational physiology. The machine learning technology utilized is deep multilayer networks (Deep Learning), and new models will continue to be produced, as relevant data is made available and specific health needs of astronaut crews are identified. The interfacing aspects of the system include a GUI for running the different models, and retrieving and storing data, as well as support for integration with an augmented reality (AR) system deployed at JSC by Tietronix Software Inc. (HoloLens). The AR system provides guidance for the placement of an ultrasound transducer that captures images to be sent to the MedICS system for diagnosis. The image captured and the associated diagnosis appear in the technician’s AR visual display.

Colombano, Silvano

Neuromorphic overparameterisation and few-shot learning in multilayer physical neural networks

Abstract Physical neuromorphic computing, exploiting the complex dynamics of physical systems, has seen rapid advancements in sophistication and performance. Physical reservoir computing, a subset of neuromorphic computing, faces limitations due to its reliance on single systems. This constrains output dimensionality and dynamic range, limiting performance to a narrow range of tasks. Here, we engineer a suite of nanomagnetic array physical reservoirs and interconnect them in parallel and series to create a multilayer neural network architecture. The output of one reservoir is recorded, scaled and virtually fed as input to the next reservoir. This networked approach increases output dimensionality, internal dynamics and computational performance. We demonstrate that a physical neuromorphic system can achieve an overparameterised state, facilitating meta-learning on small training sets and yielding strong performance across a wide range of tasks. Our approach’s efficacy is further demonstrated through few-shot learning, where the system rapidly adapts to new tasks.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Core reactivity estimation in space reactors using recurrent dynamic networks

A recurrent multilayer perceptron network topology is used in the identification of nonlinear dynamic systems from only the input/output measurements. The identification is performed in the discrete time domain, with the learning algorithm being a modified form of the back propagation (BP) rule. The recurrent dynamic network (RDN) developed is applied for the total core reactivity prediction of a spacecraft reactor from only neutronic power level measurements. Results indicate that the RDN can reproduce the nonlinear response of the reactor while keeping the number of nodes roughly equal to the relative order of the system. As accuracy requirements are increased, the number of required nodes also increases, however, the order of the RDN necessary to obtain such results is still in the same order of magnitude as the order of the mathematical model of the system. It is believed that use of the recurrent MLP structure with a variety of different learning algorithms may prove useful in utilizing artificial neural networks for recognition, classification, and prediction of dynamic systems.

Parlos, Alexander G.

Application of Multilayer Feedforward Neural Networks to Precipitation Cell-Top Altitude Estimation

The use of passive 118-GHz O2 observations of rain cells for precipitation cell-top altitude estimation is demonstrated by using a multilayer feed forward neural network retrieval system. Rain cell observations at 118 GHz were compared with estimates of the cell-top altitude obtained by optical stereoscopy. The observations were made with 2 4 km horizontal spatial resolution by using the Millimeter-wave Temperature Sounder (MTS) scanning spectrometer aboard the NASA ER-2 research aircraft during the Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment (GALE) and the COoperative Huntsville Meteorological EXperiment (COHMEX) in 1986. The neural network estimator applied to MTS spectral differences between clouds, and nearby clear air yielded an rms discrepancy of 1.76 km for a combined cumulus, mature, and dissipating cell set and 1.44 km for the cumulus-only set. An improvement in rms discrepancy to 1.36 km was achieved by including additional MTS information on the absolute atmospheric temperature profile. An incremental method for training neural networks was developed that yielded robust results, despite the use of as few as 56 training spectra. Comparison of these results with a nonlinear statistical estimator shows that superior results can be obtained with a neural network retrieval system. Imagery of estimated cell-top altitudes was created from 118-GHz spectral imagery gathered from CAMEX, September through October 1993, and from cyclone Oliver, February 7, 1993.

Spina, Michelle S.

Inverse kinematics problem in robotics using neural networks

In this paper, Multilayer Feedforward Networks are applied to the robot inverse kinematic problem. The networks are trained with endeffector position and joint angles. After training, performance is measured by having the network generate joint angles for arbitrary endeffector trajectories. A 3-degree-of-freedom (DOF) spatial manipulator is used for the study. It is found that neural networks provide a simple and effective way to both model the manipulator inverse kinematics and circumvent the problems associated with algorithmic solution methods.

Choi, Benjamin B.

Extrapolation limitations of multilayer feedforward neural networks

The limitations of backpropagation used as a function extrapolator were investigated. Four common functions were used to investigate the network's extrapolation capability. The purpose of the experiment was to determine whether neural networks are capable of extrapolation and, if so, to determine the range for which networks can extrapolate. The authors show that neural networks cannot extrapolate and offer an explanation to support this result.

Haley, Pamela J.

The Design of Stable Nonlinear Controllers for a Class of Nonlinear Plants Based on Neutral Networks

Extensive empirical evidence has been published in the literature to demonstrate the enormous potential of multilayer neural network controllers. In spite of these results, practical implementation of these control schemes has been held back by the lack of an analytical proof of the stability of the controlled system. The objective of this paper is to present a nonlinear control scheme based on multilayer neural networks for the control of a class of nonlinear plants. The stability of the closed loop system will be rigorously established.

Adetona, Olawale

Neural networks for self-learning control systems

It is shown how a neural network can learn of its own accord to control a nonlinear dynamic system. An emulator, a multilayered neural network, learns to identify the system's dynamic characteristics. The controller, another multilayered neural network, next learns to control the emulator. The self-trained controller is then used to control the actual dynamic system. The learning process continues as the emulator and controller improve and track the physical process. An example is given to illustrate these ideas. The 'truck backer-upper,' a neural network controller that steers a trailer truck while the truck is backing up to a loading dock, is demonstrated. The controller is able to guide the truck to the dock from almost any initial position. The technique explored should be applicable to a wide variety of nonlinear control problems.

Nguyen, Derrick H.

Advances in Neural Network Detection and Retrieval of Multilayer Clouds for CERES Using Multispectral Satellite Data

An artificial neural network (ANN) algorithm, employing several Aqua MODIS infrared channels, the retrieved total cloud visible optical depth, and vertical humidity profiles is trained to detect multilayer (ML) ice-over-water cloud systems as identified by matched CloudSat and CALIPSO (CC) data. The multilayer ANN, or MLANN, algorithm is also trained to retrieve the optical depth and the top and base heights of the upper-layer ice clouds in ML systems. The trained MLANN was applied to independent MODIS data resulting in a combined ML and single layer hit rate of 80% (77%) for nonpolar regions during the day (night). The results are more accurate than currently available methods and the previous version of the MLANN. Upper-layer cloud top and base heights are accurate to ±1.2 km and ±1.6 km, respectively, while the uncertainty in optical depth is ±0.457 and ±0.556 during day and night, respectively. Areas of further improvement and development are identified and will be addressed in future versions of the MLANN.

CERES

A conjugate gradients/trust regions algorithms for training multilayer perceptrons for nonlinear mapping

This paper addresses the issue of applying a globally convergent optimization algorithm to the training of multilayer perceptrons, a class of Artificial Neural Networks. The multilayer perceptrons are trained towards the solution of two highly nonlinear problems: (1) signal detection in a multi-user communication network, and (2) solving the inverse kinematics for a robotic manipulator. The research is motivated by the fact that a multilayer perceptron is theoretically capable of approximating any nonlinear function to within a specified accuracy. The algorithm that has been employed in this study combines the merits of two well known optimization algorithms, the Conjugate Gradients and the Trust Regions Algorithms. The performance is compared to a widely used algorithm, the Backpropagation Algorithm, that is basically a gradient-based algorithm, and hence, slow in converging. The performances of the two algorithms are compared with the convergence rate. Furthermore, in the case of the signal detection problem, performances are also benchmarked by the decision boundaries drawn as well as the probability of error obtained in either case.

Madyastha, Raghavendra K.

Prediction of Stiffness and Fatigue Lives of Polymer Matrix Composite Laminates Using Artificial Neural Networks

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in many engineering fields due to the advancements in ML algorithms and availability of high-speed computing power. One of the most popular ML class of models is artificial neural networks (ANN). ML is increasingly being used in the design and analysis of composite materials and structures, specifically in the constitutive modeling of composite materials with the focus on greatly accelerating multiscale analyses of composite materials and structures through development of surrogate models. Towards that end, both Python and MATLAB-based neural nets have been developed to predict initial stiffness and fatigue life of an eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. Two types of neural networks, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), have been developed for both platforms. Results show that the both neural net types can provide an excellent estimate of initial stiffness as well as fatigue life of eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. RNNs are better able to capture the shape of the fatigue curve of a laminate. This tool can be very useful for system level studies to obtain an estimate of desired properties and life of PMC composite laminates. The associated surrogate models could also be used in composite multiscale analyses to replace the actual physics-based calculations at lower scales and thereby significantly increase the computational efficiency of such analyses and thus make multiscale analyses a viable industrial tool for large scale structural problems.

Composite

Stiffness and Fatigue Life Estimator for Polymer Composite Laminates Using Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) models are increasingly being used in many engineering fields due to the advancements in ML algorithms and availability of high-speed computing power. One of the most popular ML class of models is artificial neural networks (ANN). ML is increasingly being used in the design and analysis of composite materials and structures, specifically in the constitutive modeling of composite materials with the focus on greatly accelerating multiscale analyses of composite materials and structures through development of surrogate models. Towards that end, Python-based neural nets have been developed to predict initial stiffness and fatigue life of an eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminate. Two types of neural networks, a Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN), have been established. Results show that both neural net type algorithms can provide an excellent estimate of initial laminate stiffness as well as fatigue life of eight-ply symmetric polymer matrix composite laminates (PMCs). RNNs are better able to capture the shape of the fatigue curve of a laminate. The resulting tool and GUI can be very useful for system level studies to obtain an estimate of desired properties and life of PMC composite laminates. Further, the associated surrogate models can also be used in composite multiscale analyses to replace the actual physics-based calculations at lower scales and thereby significantly increase the computational efficiency of such analyses and thus make micromechanics-based multiscale analyses a viable industrial tool for large scale structural problems.

multiscale analysis