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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2005

Multi-Scale Modeling of a Graphite-Epoxy-Nanotube System

A multi-scale method is utilized to determine some of the constitutive properties of a three component graphite-epoxy-nanotube system. This system is of interest because carbon nanotubes have been proposed as stiffening and toughening agents in the interlaminar regions of carbon fiber/epoxy laminates. The multi-scale method uses molecular dynamics simulation and equivalent-continuum modeling to compute three of the elastic constants of the graphite-epoxy-nanotube system: C11, C22, and C33. The 1-direction is along the nanotube axis, and the graphene sheets lie in the 1-2 plane. It was found that the C11 is only 4% larger than the C22. The nanotube therefore does have a small, but positive effect on the constitutive properties in the interlaminar region.

Frankland, S. J. V.↗
NASA NTRS2003

On the Computation of Space-Time Correlations by Large-Eddy Simulation

Numerical comparisons in decaying isotropic turbulence suggest that there exist discrepancies in time correlations evaluated by DNS and LES using eddy-viscosity-type SGS models. This is consistent with the previous observations in forced isotropic turbulence. Therefore, forcing is not the main cause of the discrepancies. Comparisons among different SGS models in the LES also indicate that the model choice affects the time correlations in the LES. The multi-scale LES method using the dynamic Smagorinsky model on the small scale equation is the most accurate of the all models, the classic Smagorinsky model is the least accurate and the dynamic Smagorinsky model and spectral eddy viscosity model give intermediate results with small differences. The generalized sweeping hypothesis implies that time correlations in decaying isotropic turbulence are mainly determined by the instantaneous energy spectra and sweeping velocities. The analysis based on the sweeping hypothesis explains the discrepancies in our numerical simulations: the LES overpredicts the decorrelation time scales because the sweeping velocities are smaller than the DNS values, and underpredicts the magnitudes of time correlations because the energy spectrum levels are lower than the DNS ones. Since the sweeping velocity is determined by the energy spectra, one concludes that an accurate prediction of the instantaneous energy spectra guarantees the accuracy of time correlations. An analytical expression of sound power spectra based on Lighthill's theory and the quasi-normal closure assumption suggests that the sound power spectra are sensitive to errors in time correlations. Small errors in time correlations can cause significant errors in the sound power spectra, which exhibit a sizable drop at moderate to high frequencies accompanied by a shift of the peaks to lower frequencies. Based on the above analysis, two possible ways to improve the acoustic power spectrum predictions can be considered. The first is to construct better SGS models to improve the LES accuracy for time correlations. The second is to remedy the temporal statistics of the Lighthill stress tensor in order to "recover" the contribution from the unresolved scales in LES to time correlations.

He, Guo-Wei↗
NASA NTRS2006

Model-Based Self-Tuning Multiscale Method for Combustion Control

A multi-scale representation of the combustor dynamics was used to create a self-tuning, scalable controller to suppress multiple instability modes in a liquid-fueled aero engine-derived combustor operating at engine-like conditions. Its self-tuning features designed to handle the uncertainties in the combustor dynamics and time-delays are essential for control performance and robustness. The controller was implemented to modulate a high-frequency fuel valve with feedback from dynamic pressure sensors. This scalable algorithm suppressed pressure oscillations of different instability modes by as much as 90 percent without the peak-splitting effect. The self-tuning logic guided the adjustment of controller parameters and converged quickly toward phase-lock for optimal suppression of the instabilities. The forced-response characteristics of the control model compare well with those of the test rig on both the frequency-domain and the time-domain.

Le, Dzu, K.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Retinex Image Processing: Improved Fidelity to Direct Visual Observation

Recorded color images differ from direct human viewing by the lack of dynamic range compression and color constancy. Research is summarized which develops the center/surround retinex concept originated by Edwin Land through a single scale design to a multi-scale design with color restoration (MSRCR). The MSRCR synthesizes dynamic range compression, color constancy, and color rendition and, thereby, approaches fidelity to direct observation.

Jobson, Daniel J.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Cross-Linked Nanotube Materials with Variable Stiffness Tethers

The constitutive properties of a cross-linked single-walled carbon nanotube material are predicted with a multi-scale model. The material is modeled as a transversely isotropic solid using concepts from equivalent-continuum modeling. The elastic constants are determined using molecular dynamics simulation. Some parameters of the molecular force field are determined specifically for the cross-linker from ab initio calculations. A demonstration of how the cross-linked nanotubes may affect the properties of a nanotube/polyimide composite is included using a micromechanical analysis.

Frankland, Sarah-Jane V.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Multi-Scale Modeling of Cross-Linked Nanotube Materials

The effect of cross-linking single-walled carbon nanotubes on the Young's modulus of a nanotube-reinforced composite is modeled with a multi-scale method. The Young's modulus is predicted as a function of nanotube volume fraction and cross-link density. In this method, the constitutive properties of molecular representative volume elements are determined using molecular dynamics simulation and equivalent-continuum modeling. The Young's modulus is subsequently calculated for cross-linked nanotubes in a matrix which consists of the unreacted cross-linking agent. Two different cross-linking agents are used in this study, one that is short and rigid (Molecule A), and one that is long and flexible (Molecule B). Direct comparisons between the predicted elastic constants are made for the models in which the nanotubes are either covalently bonded or not chemically bonded to the cross-linking agent. At a nanotube volume fraction of 10%, the Young's modulus of Material A is not affected by nanotube crosslinking, while the Young's modulus of Material B is reduced by 64% when the nanotubes are cross-linked relative to the non-cross-linked material with the same matrix.

Frankland, S. J. V.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Probabilistic Multi-Scale, Multi-Level, Multi-Disciplinary Analysis and Optimization of Engine Structures

Aircraft engines are assemblies of dynamically interacting components. Engine updates to keep present aircraft flying safely and engines for new aircraft are progressively required to operate in more demanding technological and environmental requirements. Designs to effectively meet those requirements are necessarily collections of multi-scale, multi-level, multi-disciplinary analysis and optimization methods and probabilistic methods are necessary to quantify respective uncertainties. These types of methods are the only ones that can formally evaluate advanced composite designs which satisfy those progressively demanding requirements while assuring minimum cost, maximum reliability and maximum durability. Recent research activities at NASA Glenn Research Center have focused on developing multi-scale, multi-level, multidisciplinary analysis and optimization methods. Multi-scale refers to formal methods which describe complex material behavior metal or composite; multi-level refers to integration of participating disciplines to describe a structural response at the scale of interest; multidisciplinary refers to open-ended for various existing and yet to be developed discipline constructs required to formally predict/describe a structural response in engine operating environments. For example, these include but are not limited to: multi-factor models for material behavior, multi-scale composite mechanics, general purpose structural analysis, progressive structural fracture for evaluating durability and integrity, noise and acoustic fatigue, emission requirements, hot fluid mechanics, heat-transfer and probabilistic simulations. Many of these, as well as others, are encompassed in an integrated computer code identified as Engine Structures Technology Benefits Estimator (EST/BEST) or Multi-faceted/Engine Structures Optimization (MP/ESTOP). The discipline modules integrated in MP/ESTOP include: engine cycle (thermodynamics), engine weights, internal fluid mechanics, cost, mission and coupled structural/thermal, various composite property simulators and probabilistic methods to evaluate uncertainty effects (scatter ranges) in all the design parameters. The objective of the proposed paper is to briefly describe a multi-faceted design analysis and optimization capability for coupled multi-discipline engine structures optimization. Results are presented for engine and aircraft type metrics to illustrate the versatility of that capability. Results are also presented for reliability, noise and fatigue to illustrate its inclusiveness. For example, replacing metal rotors with composites reduces the engine weight by 20 percent, 15 percent noise reduction, and an order of magnitude improvement in reliability. Composite designs exist to increase fatigue life by at least two orders of magnitude compared to state-of-the-art metals.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Characterizing the Preturbulence Environment for Sensor Development, New Hazard Algorithms and NASA Experimental Flight Planning

During the grant period, several tasks were performed in support of the NASA Turbulence Prediction and Warning Systems (TPAWS) program. The primary focus of the research was on characterizing the preturbulence environment by developing predictive tools and simulating atmospheric conditions that preceded severe turbulence. The goal of the research being to provide both dynamical understanding of conditions that preceded turbulence as well as providing predictive tools in support of operational NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The advancements in characterizing the preturbulence environment will be applied by NASA to sensor development for predicting turbulence onboard commercial aircraft. Numerical simulations with atmospheric models as well as multi-scale observational analyses provided insights into the environment organizing turbulence in a total of forty-eight specific case studies of severe accident producing turbulence on commercial aircraft. These accidents exclusively affected commercial aircraft. A paradigm was developed which diagnosed specific atmospheric circulation systems from the synoptic scale down to the meso-y scale that preceded turbulence in both clear air and in proximity to convection. The emphasis was primarily on convective turbulence as that is what the TPAWS program is most focused on in terms of developing improved sensors for turbulence warning and avoidance. However, the dynamical paradigm also has applicability to clear air and mountain turbulence. This dynamical sequence of events was then employed to formulate and test new hazard prediction indices that were first tested in research simulation studies and then ultimately were further tested in support of the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. The new hazard characterization algorithms were utilized in a Real Time Turbulence Model (RTTM) that was operationally employed to support the NASA B-757 turbulence research flights. Improvements in the RTTM were implemented in an effort to increase the accuracy of the operational characterization of the preturbulence environment. Additionally, the initial research necessary to create a statistical evaluation scheme for the characterization indices utilized in the RTTM was undertaken. Results of all components of this research were then published in NASA contractor reports and scientific journal papers.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Satellite remote sensing of landscape freeze/thaw state dynamics for complex Topography and Fire Disturbance Areas Using multi-sensor radar and SRTM digital elevation models

We characterize differences in radar-derived freeze/thaw state, examining transitions over complex terrain and landscape disturbance regimes. In areas of complex terrain, we explore freezekhaw dynamics related to elevation, slope aspect and varying landcover. In the burned regions, we explore the timing of seasonal freeze/thaw transition as related to the recovering landscape, relative to that of a nearby control site. We apply in situ biophysical measurements, including flux tower measurements to validate and interpret the remotely sensed parameters. A multi-scale analysis is performed relating high-resolution SAR backscatter and moderate resolution scatterometer measurements to assess trade-offs in spatial and temporal resolution in the remotely sensed fields.

synthetic aperture radars (SARs)↗
NASA NTRS2006

Multiscale Analysis of Delamination of Carbon Fiber-Epoxy Laminates with Carbon Nanotubes

A multi-scale analysis is presented to parametrically describe the Mode I delamination of a carbon fiber/epoxy laminate. In the midplane of the laminate, carbon nanotubes are included for the purposes of selectively enhancing the fracture toughness of the laminate. To analyze carbon fiber epoxy carbon nanotube laminate, the multi-scale methodology presented here links a series of parameterizations taken at various length scales ranging from the atomistic through the micromechanical to the structural level. At the atomistic scale molecular dynamics simulations are performed in conjunction with an equivalent continuum approach to develop constitutive properties for representative volume elements of the molecular structure of components of the laminate. The molecular-level constitutive results are then used in the Mori-Tanaka micromechanics to develop bulk properties for the epoxy-carbon nanotube matrix system. In order to demonstrate a possible application of this multi-scale methodology, a double cantilever beam specimen is modeled. An existing analysis is employed which uses discrete springs to model the fiber bridging affect during delamination propagation. In the absence of empirical data or a damage mechanics model describing the effect of CNTs on fracture toughness, several tractions laws are postulated, linking CNT volume fraction to fiber bridging in a DCB specimen. Results from this demonstration are presented in terms of DCB specimen load-displacement responses.

Riddick, Jaret C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Micromechanics Modeling of Functionally Graded Interphase Regions in Carbon Nanotube-Polymer Composites

The effective elastic properties of a unidirectional carbon fiber/epoxy lamina in which the carbon fibers are coated with single-walled carbon nanotubes are modeled herein through the use of a multi-scale method involving the molecular dynamics/equivalent continuum and micromechanics methods. The specific lamina representative volume element studied consists of a carbon fiber surrounded by a region of epoxy containing a radially varying concentration of carbon nanotubes which is then embedded in the pure epoxy matrix. The variable concentration of carbon nanotubes surrounding the carbon fiber results in a functionally graded interphase region as the properties of the interphase region vary according to the carbon nanotube volume fraction. Molecular dynamics and equivalent continuum methods are used to assess the local effective properties of the carbon nanotube/epoxy comprising the interphase region. Micromechanics in the form of the Mori-Tanaka method are then applied to obtain the global effective properties of the graded interphase region wherein the carbon nanotubes are randomly oriented. Finally, the multi-layer composite cylinders micromechanics approach is used to obtain the effective lamina properties from the lamina representative volume element. It was found that even very small quantities of carbon nanotubes (0.36% of lamina by volume) coating the surface of the carbon fibers in the lamina can have a significant effect (8% increase) on the transverse properties of the lamina (E22, k23, G23 and G12) with almost no affect on the lamina properties in the fiber direction (E11 and v12).

Seidel, Gary D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

An Integrated Use of Experimental, Modeling and Remote Sensing Techniques to Investigate Carbon and Phosphorus Dynamics in the Humid Tropics

Moist tropical forests comprise one of the world's largest and most diverse biomes, and exchange more carbon, water, and energy with the atmosphere than any other ecosystem. In recent decades, tropical forests have also become one of the globe's most threatened biomes, subjected to exceptionally high rates of deforestation and land degradation. Thus, the importance of and threats to tropical forests are undeniable, yet our understanding of basic ecosystem processes in both intact and disturbed portions of the moist tropics remains poorer than for almost any other major biome. Our approach in this project was to take a multi-scale, multi-tool approach to address two different problems. First, we wanted to test if land-use driven changes in the cycles of probable limiting nutrients in forest systems were a key driver in the frequently observed pattern of declining pasture productivity and carbon stocks. Given the enormous complexity of land use change in the tropics, in which one finds a myriad of different land use types and intensities overlain on varying climates and soil types, we also wanted to see if new remote sensing techniques would allow some novel links between parameters which could be sensed remotely, and key biogeochemical variables which cannot. Second, we addressed to general questions about the role of tropical forests in the global carbon cycle. First, we used a new approach for quantifying and minimizing non-biological artifacts in the NOAA/NASA AVHRR Pathfinder time series of surface reflectance data so that we could address potential links between Amazonian forest dynamics and ENSO cycles. Second, we showed that the disequilibrium in C-13 exchanged between land and atmosphere following tropical deforestation probably has a significant impact on the use of 13-CO2 data to predict regional fluxes in the global carbon cycle.

Townsend, Alan R.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Modeling of Interfacial Modification Effects on Thermal Conductivity of Carbon Nanotube Composites

The effect of functionalization of carbon nanotubes on the thermal conductivity of nanocomposites has been studied using a multi-scale modeling approach. These results predict that grafting linear hydrocarbon chains to the surface of a single wall carbon nanotube with covalent chemical bonds should result in a significant increase in the thermal conductivity of these nanocomposites. This is due to the decrease in the interfacial thermal (Kapitza) resistance between the single wall carbon nanotube and the surrounding polymer matrix upon chemical functionalization. The nanocomposites studied here consist of single wall carbon nanotubes in a bulk poly(ethylene vinyl acetate) matrix. The nanotubes are functionalized by end-grafting linear hydrocarbon chains of varying length to the surface of the nanotube. The effect which this functionalization has on the interfacial thermal resistance is studied by molecular dynamics simulation. Interfacial thermal resistance values are calculated for a range of chemical grafting densities and with several chain lengths. These results are subsequently used in an analytical model to predict the resulting effect on the bulk thermal conductivity of the nanocomposite.

Clancy, Thomas C.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 kilometers, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-kilometer scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 kilometers in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 km, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial 1-km scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 km in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 sq km in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard will be presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS2006

Using Multi-scale Modeling System to Study the Interactions between Clouds, Precipitation, Aerosols, Radiation and Land Surface

Numerical cloud models, which are based the non-hydrostatic equations of motion, have been extensively applied to cloud-scale and mesoscale processes during the past four decades. Because cloud-scale dynamics are treated explicitly, uncertainties stemming from convection that have to be parameterized in (hydrostatic) large-scale models are obviated, or at least mitigated, in cloud models. Global models will use the non-hydrostatic framework when their horizontal resolution becomes about 10 kilometers, the theoretical limit for the hydrostatic approximation. This juncture will be reached one to two decades from now. Over the past generation, voluminous datasets on atmospheric convection have been accumulated from radar, instrumented aircraft, satellites, and rawinsonde measurements in field campaigns, enabling the detailed evaluation of models. Improved numerical methods have resulted in more accurate and efficient dynamical cores in models. Improvements have been made in the parameterizations of microphysical processes, radiation, boundary-layer effects, and turbulence; however, microphysical parameterizations remain a major source of uncertainty in all classes of atmospheric models. In recent years, exponentially increasing computer power has extended cloud-resolving-model integrations from hours to months, the number of computational grid points from less than a thousand to close to ten million. Three-dimensional models are now more prevalent. Much attention is devoted to precipitating cloud systems where the crucial-lkm scales are resolved in horizontal domains as large as 10,000 kilometers in two-dimensions, and 1,000 x 1,000 square kilometers in three-dimensions. Cloud models now provide statistical information useful for developing more realistic physically based parameterizations for climate models and numerical weather prediction models. It is also expected that NWP and mesoscale model can be run in grid size similar to cloud resolving model through nesting technique. A review of developments, improvements and applications of cloud models (GCE and WRF) at Goddard wlll be is presented in this talk. In particular, a new approach to using multi-scale modeling system to study the interactions between clouds, precipitation, aerosols and land will be presented.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
NASA NTRS1993

Scientific goals of the Cooperative Multiscale Experiment (CME)

Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCS) form the focus of CME. Recent developments in global climate models, the urgent need to improve the representation of the physics of convection, radiation, the boundary layer, and orography, and the surge of interest in coupling hydrologic, chemistry, and atmospheric models of various scales, have emphasized the need for a broad interdisciplinary and multi-scale approach to understanding and predicting MCS's and their interactions with processes at other scales. The role of mesoscale systems in the large-scale atmospheric circulation, the representation of organized convection and other mesoscale flux sources in terms of bulk properties, and the mutually consistent treatment of water vapor, clouds, radiation, and precipitation, are all key scientific issues concerning which CME will seek to increase understanding. The manner in which convective, mesoscale, and larger scale processes interact to produce and organize MCS's, the moisture cycling properties of MCS's, and the use of coupled cloud/mesoscale models to better understand these processes, are also major objectives of CME. Particular emphasis will be placed on the multi-scale role of MCS's in the hydrological cycle and in the production and transport of chemical trace constituents. The scientific goals of the CME consist of the following: understand how the large and small scales of motion influence the location, structure, intensity, and life cycles of MCS's; understand processes and conditions that determine the relative roles of balanced (slow manifold) and unbalanced (fast manifold) circulations in the dynamics of MCS's throughout their life cycles; assess the predictability of MCS's and improve the quantitative forecasting of precipitation and severe weather events; quantify the upscale feedback of MCS's to the large-scale environment and determine interrelationships between MCS occurrence and variations in the large-scale flow and surface forcing; provide a data base for initialization and verification of coupled regional, mesoscale/hydrologic, mesoscale/chemistry, and prototype mesoscale/cloud-resolving models for prediction of severe weather, ceilings, and visibility; provide a data base for initialization and validation of cloud-resolving models, and for assisting in the fabrication, calibration, and testing of cloud and MCS parameterization schemes; and provide a data base for validation of four dimensional data assimilation schemes and algorithms for retrieving cloud and state parameters from remote sensing instrumentation.

Cotton, William↗
NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Predictive Modeling and Remote Sensing of Land Use Change in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

This project was focused on modeling the processes by which increasing demand for developed land uses, brought about by changes in the regional economy and the socio-demographics of the region, are translated into a changing spatial pattern of land use. Our study focused on a portion of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed where the spatial patterns of sprawl represent a set of conditions generally prevalent in much of the U.S. Working in the region permitted us access to (i) a time-series of multi-scale and multi-temporal (including historical) satellite imagery and (ii) an established network of collaborating partners and agencies willing to share resources and to utilize developed techniques and model results. In addition, a unique parcel-level tax assessment database and linked parcel boundary maps exists for two counties in the Maryland portion of this region that made it possible to establish a historical cross-section time-series database of parcel level development decisions. Scenario analyses of future land use dynamics provided critical quantitative insight into the impact of alternative land management and policy decisions. These also have been specifically aimed at addressing growth control policies aimed at curbing exurban (sprawl) development. Our initial technical approach included three components: (i) spatial econometric modeling of the development decision, (ii) remote sensing of suburban change and residential land use density, including comparisons of past change from Landsat analyses and more traditional sources, and (iii) linkages between the two through variable initialization and supplementation of parcel level data. To these we added a fourth component, (iv) cellular automata modeling of urbanization, which proved to be a valuable addition to the project. This project has generated both remote sensing and spatially explicit socio-economic data to estimate and calibrate the parameters for two different types of land use change models and has undertaken analyses of these models. One (the CA model) is driven largely by observations on past patterns of land use change, while the other (the EC model) is driven by mechanisms of the land use change decision at the parcel level. Our project may be the first serious attempt at developing both types of models for the same area, using as much common data as possible. We have identified the strengths and weaknesses of the two approaches and plan to continue to revise each model in the light of new data and new lessons learned through continued collaboration. Questions, approaches, findings, publication and presentation lists concerning the research are also presented.

Goetz, Scott J.↗