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At least 19 records

Kinetic Modeling of Secondary Organic Aerosol in a Weather-Chemistry Model: Parameterizations, Processes, and Predictions for GOAmazon

Secondary organic aerosol (SOA) forms and evolves in the atmosphere through many pathways and processes, over diverse spatial and time scales. Hence, there is a need to represent these widely-varying kinetic processes in large-scale atmospheric models to allow for accurate predictions of the abundance, properties, and impacts of SOA. In this work, we integrated a kinetic, process-level model (simpleSOM-MOSAIC) into a weather-chemistry model (WRF-Chem) to simulate the oxidation chemistry and microphysics of atmospheric SOA. simpleSOM-MOSAIC simulates multigenerational gas-phase chemistry, autoxidation reactions, heterogeneous oxidation, oligomerization, and phase-state-influenced gas/particle partitioning of SOA. As a case study, the integrated WRF-Chem-simpleSOM-MOSAIC (WC-SSM) model was used to simulate the photochemical evolution downwind of a large city (Manaus, Brazil) in the Amazon and, in turn, study the anthropogenic and biogenic interactions in an otherwise pristine environment. Consistent with previous work, we found that OA was enhanced by up to a factor of four in the urban plume due to elevated hydroxyl radical (OH) concentrations, relative to the background, and that this OA was dominated by SOA from biogenic precursors (80%). Further, in addition to accurately simulating the OA enhancement in the urban plume, the model reproduced the magnitude of the OA oxygen-to-carbon (O:C) ratio and broadly tracked the evolution of the aerosol size distribution. Our work highlights the importance of including an integrated, kinetic representation of SOA processes in an atmospheric model

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Aggregated DER_A Model Parameterization via Online Moving Horizon Estimation

Here, this paper introduces a methodology for parameterizing the DER_A model using a novel smooth mathematical representation, simplifying the process and preserving accuracy in modeling inverter-based generator (IBG). The methodology employs an online parameterization process that can operate in real-time. The model parameterization process is structured into five sequential steps, each targeting a specific aspect of the DER_A model through moving horizon estimation. This approach adapts to systems with varying voltage and frequency support requirements by selectively applying each step. Simulation results on systems with both known and unknown parameters validate the methodology’s effectiveness. The online moving horizon estimation technique accurately captures the dynamics of the overall system and ensures that the parameterized DER_A model closely mirrors the real system’s voltage, current, and power dynamics. The findings highlight the potential of this methodology to substantially improve and simplify the dynamic modeling of power systems, paving the way for more reliable and robust IBG and grid integration.

42 ENGINEERING

Mshpy23: A User-Friendly, Parameterized Model of Magnetosheath Conditions

Lunar Environment heliospheric X-ray Imager (LEXI) and Solar wind – Magnetosphere - Ionosphere Link Explorer (SMILE) will observe magnetosheath and its boundary motion in soft X-rays for understanding magnetopause reconnection modes under varioussolar wind conditions after their respective launches in 2024 and 2025. Magnetosheath conditions, namely, plasma density, velocity, and temperature, are key parameters for predicting and analyzing soft X-ray images from the LEXI and SMILE missions. We developed a user-friendly model of magnetosheath that parameterizes number density, velocity, temperature, and magnetic field by utilizing the global Magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) model as well as the pre-existing gas-dynamic and analytic models. Using this parameterized magnetosheath model, scientists can easily reconstruct expected soft X-ray images and utilize them for analysis of observed images of LEXI and SMILE without simulating the complicated global magnetosphere models. First, we created an MHD based magnetosheath model by running a total of 14 OpenGGCM global MHD simulations under 7 solar wind densities (1, 5, 10, 15, 20, 25, and 30cm−3) and 2 interplanetary magnetic field BZ components (± 4nT), and then parameterizing the results in new magnetosheath conditions. We compared the magnetosheath model result with THEMIS statistical data and it showed good agreement with a weighted Pearson correlation coefficient greater than 0.77, especially for plasma density and plasma velocity. Second, we compiled a suite of magnetosheath models incorporating previous magnetosheath models (gas-dynamic, analytic), and did two case studies to test the performance. The MHD based model was comparable to or better than the previous models while providing self consistency among the magnetosheath parameters. Third, we constructed a tool to calculate a soft X-ray image from any given vantage point, which can support the planning and data analysis of the aforementioned LEXI and SMILE missions. A release of the code has been uploaded to a Github repository.

Magnetosheath

Using PyBioNetFit to leverage qualitative and quantitative data in biological model parameterization and uncertainty quantification

Data generated in studies of cellular regulatory systems are often qualitative. For example, measurements of signaling readouts in the presence and absence of mutations may reveal a rank ordering of responses across conditions but not the precise extents of mutation-induced differences. Qualitative data are often ignored by mathematical modelers or are considered in an ad hoc manner, as in the study of Kocieniewski and Lipniacki (2013) [Phys Biol 10: 035006], which was focused on the roles of MEK isoforms in ERK activation. In this earlier study, model parameter values were tuned manually to obtain consistency with a combination of qualitative and quantitative data. This approach is not reproducible, nor does it provide insights into parametric or prediction uncertainties. Here, starting from the same data and the same ordinary differential equation (ODE) model structure, we generate formalized statements of qualitative observations, making these observations more reusable, and we improve the model parameterization procedure by applying a systematic and automated approach enabled by the software package PyBioNetFit. We also demonstrate uncertainty quantification (UQ), which was absent in the original study. Our results show that PyBioNetFit enables qualitative data to be leveraged, together with quantitative data, in parameterization of systems biology models and facilitates UQ. These capabilities are important for reliable estimation of model parameters and model analyses in studies of cellular regulatory systems and reproducibility.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES

Multiscale Modeling of Grain-Boundary Fracture: Cohesive Zone Models Parameterized From Atomistic Simulations

A multiscale modeling strategy is developed to study grain boundary fracture in polycrystalline aluminum. Atomistic simulation is used to model fundamental nanoscale deformation and fracture mechanisms and to develop a constitutive relationship for separation along a grain boundary interface. The nanoscale constitutive relationship is then parameterized within a cohesive zone model to represent variations in grain boundary properties. These variations arise from the presence of vacancies, intersticies, and other defects in addition to deviations in grain boundary angle from the baseline configuration considered in the molecular dynamics simulation. The parameterized cohesive zone models are then used to model grain boundaries within finite element analyses of aluminum polycrystals.

Glaessgen, Edward H.

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic‐boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8‐day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. To further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re‐parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

land data assimilation

Integrating State Data Assimilation and Innovative Model Parameterization Reduces Simulated Carbon Uptake in the Arctic and Boreal Region

Model representation of carbon uptake and storage is essential for accurate projection of the response of the arctic-boreal zone to a rapidly changing climate. Land model estimates of LAI and aboveground biomass that can have a marked influence on model projections of carbon uptake and storage vary substantially in the arctic and boreal zone, making it challenging to correctly evaluate model estimates of Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). To understand and correct bias of LAI and aboveground biomass in the Community Land Model (CLM), we assimilated the 8-day Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI observation and a machine learning product of annual aboveground biomass into CLM using an Ensemble Adjustment Kalman Filter (EAKF) in an experimental region including Alaska and Western Canada. Assimilating LAI and aboveground biomass reduced these model estimates by 58% and 72%, respectively. The change of aboveground biomass was consistent with independent estimates of canopy top height at both regional and site levels. The International Land Model Benchmarking system assessment showed that data assimilation significantly improved CLM's performance in simulating the carbon and hydrological cycles, as well as in representing the functional relationships between LAI and other variables. Here, to further reduce the remaining bias in GPP after LAI bias correction, we re-parameterized CLM to account for low temperature suppression of photosynthesis. The LAI bias corrected model that included the new parameterization showed the best agreement with model benchmarks. Combining data assimilation with model parameterization provides a useful framework to assess photosynthetic processes in LSMs.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Cirrus cloud model parameterizations: Incorporating realistic ice particle generation

Recent cirrus cloud modeling studies have involved the application of a time-dependent, two dimensional Eulerian model, with generalized cloud microphysical parameterizations drawn from experimental findings. For computing the ice versus vapor phase changes, the ice mass content is linked to the maintenance of a relative humidity with respect to ice (RHI) of 105 percent; ice growth occurs both with regard to the introduction of new particles and the growth of existing particles. In a simplified cloud model designed to investigate the basic role of various physical processes in the growth and maintenance of cirrus clouds, these parametric relations are justifiable. In comparison, the one dimensional cloud microphysical model recently applied to evaluating the nucleation and growth of ice crystals in cirrus clouds explicitly treated populations of haze and cloud droplets, and ice crystals. Although these two modeling approaches are clearly incompatible, the goal of the present numerical study is to develop a parametric treatment of new ice particle generation, on the basis of detailed microphysical model findings, for incorporation into improved cirrus growth models. For example, the relation between temperature and the relative humidity required to generate ice crystals from ammonium sulfate haze droplets, whose probability of freezing through the homogeneous nucleation mode are a combined function of time and droplet molality, volume, and temperature. As an example of this approach, the results of cloud microphysical simulations are presented showing the rather narrow domain in the temperature/humidity field where new ice crystals can be generated. The microphysical simulations point out the need for detailed CCN studies at cirrus altitudes and haze droplet measurements within cirrus clouds, but also suggest that a relatively simple treatment of ice particle generation, which includes cloud chemistry, can be incorporated into cirrus cloud growth.

Sassen, Kenneth

Tracer transport by planetary waves - A comparison of explicit and parameterized models

A two-dimensional stratospheric tracer transport parameterization is developed using the theory of small-amplitude generalized Lagrangian means and tested by two experiments. The first tests the parameterization for mean climatological winter conditions without wave transience; the second tests it in the presence of transience and critical layers, when nonacceleration conditions are strongly violated. Tracer transport by Eulerian velocity, the residual velocity, and the nondivergent mean meridional Lagrangian velocity are compared.

Hess, P. G.

Evaluating Model Parameterizations of Submicron Aerosol Scattering and Absorption with in situ Data from ARCTAS 2008

Accurate modeling of the scattering and absorption of ultraviolet and visible radiation by aerosols is essential for accurate simulations of atmospheric chemistry and climate. Closure studies using in situ measurements of aerosol scattering and absorption can be used to evaluate and improve models of aerosol optical properties without interference from model errors in aerosol emissions, transport, chemistry, or deposition rates. Here we evaluate the ability of four externally mixed, fixed size distribution parameterizations used in global models to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption at three wavelengths using in situ data gathered during the 2008 Arctic Research of the Composition of the Troposphere from Aircraft and Satellites (ARCTAS) campaign. The four models are the NASA Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) Combo model, GEOS-Chem v9- 02, the baseline configuration of a version of GEOS-Chem with online radiative transfer calculations (called GC-RT), and the Optical Properties of Aerosol and Clouds (OPAC v3.1) package. We also use the ARCTAS data to perform the first evaluation of the ability of the Aerosol Simulation Program (ASP v2.1) to simulate submicron aerosol scattering and absorption when in situ data on the aerosol size distribution are used, and examine the impact of different mixing rules for black carbon (BC) on the results. We find that the GMI model tends to overestimate submicron scattering and absorption at shorter wavelengths by 10-23 percent, and that GMI has smaller absolute mean biases for submicron absorption than OPAC v3.1, GEOS-Chem v9-02, or GC-RT. However, the changes to the density and refractive index of BC in GCRT improve the simulation of submicron aerosol absorption at all wavelengths relative to GEOS-Chem v9-02. Adding a variable size distribution, as in ASP v2.1, improves model performance for scattering but not for absorption, likely due to the assumption in ASP v2.1 that BC is present at a constant mass fraction throughout the aerosol size distribution. Using a core-shell mixing rule in ASP overestimates aerosol absorption, especially for the fresh biomass burning aerosol measured in ARCTAS-B, suggesting the need for modeling the time-varying mixing states of aerosols in future versions of ASP.

Alvarado, Matthew J.

Satellite-Based Model Parameterization of Diabatic Heating

Future meteorological satellites are expected to provide much needed fine-scale information that can improve the accuracy of weather and climate models. As one application of this improved capability, we introduce the concept of a generalized parameterization framework using satellite datasets that will increase the accuracy and the computational efficiency of weather and climate modeling. In an atmospheric model, several different parameterizations usually are used to reproduce the various physical processes. However, it is generally unrealistic to separate the processes in this artificial way since the observations and physics make no such artificial separation. Thus, we propose a new unified parameterization framework to remove the unrealistic separation between parameterizations.

Pielke, Roger, Sr.

A parameterized model for global insolation under partially cloudy skies

A simple and efficient parameterization of insolation under partially cloudy skies is discussed and compared with a set of exact radiative transfer results for clear skies, an empirical equation and observations. The parameterization is physically based and requires, as input variables, the ozone path length, precipitable water, Angstrom turbidity, surface air pressure and albedo, fractional cloud-cover and cloud thickness. Multiple reflection between the surface and the overlying atmosphere, and clouds are considered. The albedo of the earth-atmosphere system is also formulated and compared with a set of exact radiative transfer results. As compared to the exact radiative transfer results, the errors in the insolations are generally less than 1 percent, and in the albedo of the earth-atmosphere system less than 10 percent. The errors in the calculated insolations using climatological data are 2-3 percent when compared with many years averaged observations at Maudheim (Antarctica) and at Rockville (U.S.A.). A parametric equation for calculating directly the daily total insolation is also given.

Choudhury, B.

Performance of Convection-Permitting and Convection-Parameterized Models in Reproducing the Extreme Precipitation Intensity Relationship with Surface Conditions

Here, this study investigates the warm-season extreme precipitation–temperature scaling relationship in CONUS404, a convection-permitting (4 km) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model simulation over the conterminous United States for the past four decades, and compares it with the WRF-Thermodynamic Global Warming (WRF-TGW) historical simulation at a coarser resolution (12 km) using parameterized convection. We also analyze the NCEP stage IV and NASA Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for the Global Precipitation Measurement (IMERG) datasets as observational benchmarks. We examine how extreme precipitation intensity (EPI) varies with temperature and saturation deficit over representative regions based on hourly data. The stage IV and IMERG data show a similar pattern of EPI variation with temperature and saturation deficit, except that the EPI peak is lower in IMERG than in stage IV. Under dry and hot conditions, EPI decreases too rapidly with elevated saturation deficit in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW compared to observations, but the performance of CONUS404 is superior to WRF-TGW. When the near-surface atmosphere is saturated or close to saturated, both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW produce higher peak values of EPI relative to the observational references; IMERG exhibits scaling rates close to the Clausius–Clapeyron (C–C) relationship, while CONUS404, WRF-TGW, and stage IV all demonstrate super-C–C scaling behaviors. Despite marked warming over the past four decades, in both CONUS404 and WRF-TGW, the scaling relationship between EPI and temperature in a saturated atmosphere remains stable and robust. This indicates a strong potential for the EPI–temperature scaling rate under saturation to be used as an emergent constraint in reducing uncertainties of future extreme precipitation projection.

Atmosphere

Regional-Scale Modeling Parameterizations for Secondary Organic Aerosol Formation from Isoprene Epoxydiols: Experimentally Based Evaluation and Optimization

Isoprene is an abundant volatile organic compound emitted from broadleaf forests. Under low nitric oxide concentrations, isoprene is photochemically oxidized to form gas-phase isoprene epoxydiols (IEPOX). In the presence of acidified sulfate aerosols, IEPOX enhances the secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation. Predictions of IEPOX-SOA in regional-scale models, e.g., the Community Multiscale Air Quality Model (CMAQ), are uncertain due to homogeneous aerosol assumptions, underpredictions of water uptake (hygroscopicity), and aerosol surface area. Here, we used experimental measurements of IEPOX-SOA tracers, 2-methyltetrols (2-MT) and 2-methyltetrol sulfates (2-MTS), formed at initial IEPOX-to-inorganic sulfate ratios ranging from 1–10.5, at ∼50% relative humidity to constrain key IEPOX-SOA parameters: phase separation, organic shell diffusivity (D org ), acidity, hygroscopic growth, mass accommodation, and kinetics. The base CMAQ parametrization overpredicted experimental IEPOX-SOA with an average normalized mean bias (NMB average ) of 1.63. CMAQ with phase separation underpredicted IEPOX-SOA (NMB average = −0.71). Using the phase-separated model, CMAQ model performance was optimized (NMB average = 0.077) with an increased D org = 2 × 10 –16 m 2 s –1 and increased rate constants (k 2-MT = 1 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 , k 2-MTS = 8.83 × 10 –3 M 2 s –1 ). The optimized model explicitly accounted for hygroscopic growth by utilizing experimentally derived growth rates, improving aerosol surface area predictions. Our model highlights the importance of the aerosol mixing state (homogeneous versus phase-separated), aerosol size dynamics, and hygroscopic growth in modeling heterogeneous reactive uptake of IEPOX.

aerosols

Flux-Pinned Dynamics Model Parameterization and Sensitivity Study

Flux-pinned interfaces for spacecraft are an action-at-a-distance technology that can maintain a passively stable equilibrium between two spacecraft in close-proximity using the physics of magnetic flux pinning. Although flux pinning dynamics have been studied from a material-science perspective and at an interface level, there is a need to better understand the sensitivities and implications of system-level designs on the flux-pinned interface dynamics, especially in designs with multiple magnets and superconductors. These interfaces have highly nonlinear, coupled dynamics that are influenced by physical parameters including but not limited to strength of magnetic field sources, field-cooled position, and superconductor geometry. This paper addresses that gap by codifying parametric terms into an improved dynamics model, which can then be used to simulate the interaction of a multiple-superconductor-multiple-magnet interface. A standard starting point for modeling flux pinning dynamics is Kordyuk’s frozen image model, which defines a geometric mapping between magnetic field sources and their corresponding magnetic point source “images inside the volume of the superconductor.” The frozen image model successfully approximates the characteristics of flux pinning dynamics, but could provide more precise position and orientation predictions with the addition of various physical parameter refinements. The sensitivity of the general flux-pinned dynamics model is studied by varying the physical parameters and simulating the systems level dynamics. A predictive dynamics model is crucial to the maturation of this technology so it can be utilized in spacecraft systems, and this work represents a critical step in the development of that model.

Peck, Mason

A test of a cumulus parameterization model using the GATE data

Two parametric, ensemble cloud models were tested with data obtained during GATE (GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment) (1974). The first model is an adaption of the Arakawa-Schubert scheme which uses an entraining jet to represent individual cumulus cloud types. The second model consists of an ensemble of cylindrical cells to represent the convective cloud field.

Rodenhuis, D.

A parameterized model for the evolution of isotopic heterogeneities in a convecting system

It is experimentally shown that, although steady convective flows are efficient means to heterogeneity within a single cell, they do not produce a dispersal of heterogeneous material over scales that are large by comparison to their depth, which requires that the flow be time-dependent on a time scale comparable to the overturn time. Convection in an internally heated layer does possess this property, and numerical solutions are presently used to study the way in which it disperses a set of neutrally bouyant particles initially confined to a small space. The derived concept of effective diffusivity is applied to the isotopic evolution of the Sm-Nd and Rb-Sr systems, with spatial variations generated by horizontal variations in degree of melting 1.8 billion years ago.

Richter, F. M.