An Updated SynthPop Model for Microlensing Simulations. I. Model Description and Evaluation
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This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.
The United States High Performance Research Reactor Program’s objective is to reduce the amount of highly enriched uranium currently implemented in research reactors. The conversion of these research reactors requires designing a monolithic U10Mo plate fuel, with the fuel plate geometry being dependent on each research reactor. The process of forming the plates includes a hot isostatic pressing (HIP) to manufacture a prototypic plate. In the case of the Missouri University Research Reactor (MURR) design demonstration element (DDE) plate manufacture, plates that have been through HIP are then curved using dies and a hydraulic press to impart the desired curvature. Both fabrication processes impart residual stresses into each fuel plate region, with the curvature of the plates taking some regions of the fuel plate up to their material yield stresses, accompanied by plastic strain. The amount of plastic strain and stress imparted onto each MURR DDE plate is determined by the radius of curvature, thickness of each region, and overall width of the fuel plates. Furthermore, this work aims to predict the yield stresses and strain using ABAQUS to simulate the proposed fabrication process of the MURR DDE plates, accompanied by discussion over the stresses and strains as to their relation to nuclear fuel performance and the impact they will have during early irradiation.
The numerical model for a rocket thermal analysis code (RTE) is discussed. RTE is a comprehensive thermal analysis code for thermal analysis of regeneratively cooled rocket engines. The input to the code consists of the composition of fuel/oxidant mixture and flow rates, chamber pressure, coolant temperature and pressure. dimensions of the engine, materials and the number of nodes in different parts of the engine. The code allows for temperature variation in axial, radial and circumferential directions. By implementing an iterative scheme, it provides nodal temperature distribution, rates of heat transfer, hot gas and coolant thermal and transport properties. The fuel/oxidant mixture ratio can be varied along the thrust chamber. This feature allows the user to incorporate a non-equilibrium model or an energy release model for the hot-gas-side. The user has the option of bypassing the hot-gas-side calculations and directly inputting the gas-side fluxes. This feature is used to link RTE to a boundary layer module for the hot-gas-side heat flux calculations.
Atmospheric deposition of micro-nutrients like Fe has been shown to be important for ocean biogeochemistry. The largest source of atmospheric Fe and other elements (e.g., Ca, Al, Si, and Ti) is desert dust, although there are significant non-dust sources in some regions. However, past estimates of these elements have been substantially uncertain due to limited information about the composition of the desert source regions. Here we use elemental distributions estimated from new Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) observations, which provide mineralogical composition at the surface of the Earth based on imaging spectroscopy measurements from the International Space Station. We add in other sources of these elements (anthropogenic and natural) and compare to a compilation of available surface concentration data from stations over land and from shipborne observations. Our results suggest that the modeled distribution is similar to available observations, but discrepancies still exist in both natural desert dust regions as well as regions dominated by anthropogenic sources. Global budgets for the elements Ca, Al, Fe, Si, and Ti suggest that desert dust remains the dominant source for these elements but anthropogenic or volcanic sources are also important for these elements. Changes in elemental distributions since preindustrial times were also estimated.
Dust aerosols have a wide size distribution from less than 0.1 to over 100 μm and dominate Earth's atmospheric aerosol mass. However, most Earth system models (ESMs) inadequately represent dust aerosols larger than 10 μm in diameter, limiting the accuracy of the simulated dust cycle and climate impacts. Here, we introduce a new modeling framework that captures the full observed size distribution of dust aerosols, incorporating recent advances into a mineral-resolved version of the Community ESM, while addressing known issues in previous versions. Comprehensive evaluation against diverse observations of bulk dust and component minerals demonstrates that the model reproduces the observed dust cycle across particle sizes. Incorporating the previously unrepresented large-dust fractions substantially alters dust budget estimates, highlighting potential changes in simulated climate impacts and underscoring the importance of comprehensive size-resolved dust modeling. Despite these advancements, uncertainties persist. Our results indicate that a size-dependent reduction in settling velocity is required to reproduce the observed dust size distribution downwind of source regions. Specifically, in the new model, the gravitational settling velocity of dust particles larger than 10 μm in diameter must be reduced by as much as 85% to achieve agreement with observations. This empirical reduction serves as a constraint on physics-based models of dust settling. Future developments should address misrepresented physical processes that hinder accurate modeling of the large dust aerosol transport. Expanding observational data sets covering the full-size distribution is also essential to better constrain the dust cycle and improve the representation of dust optical properties and climate effects.
The Orion Crew Survival Systems (OCSS) suit is equipped with safety technology that protects the crew during launch and re-entry and Intravehicular Activities (IVA). It was designed to be used with a Liquid Cooling Garment (LCG), an undergarment with tubes that circulate water to remove excess heat from a crew member. The objective of this study is to determine if the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES), which has very similar material, assembly, and pressure characteristics as the OCSS suit, can be used without the LCG to maintain the crew within their heat storage requirements where exceedances can lead to cognitive and physiological impairment. Testing was completed for both hot and cold environments where test subjects wore varying configurations of the MACES suit ensemble without the LCG. The tests were conducted in a temperature and humidity-controlled chamber with four test subjects ranging from extra small to large. Target metabolic rates were reached using an arm ergometer. To represent the different suit configurations seen in the concept of operations, the suit was tested with visor-down, visor-up, and without helmet and gloves. The test data was analyzed to determine how the environment, test subject size, metabolic rate, and suit configuration affected heat storage. Furthermore, the test data was used to correlate the METMAN model, a transient metabolic man program that simulates the heat transfer within a crew member’s body and from a crew member to the surrounding environment. The METMAN correlation showed good agreement between predicted heat storage and test data at the end of the test duration, with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) value of 0.8999 for visor-down cases and R 2 of 0.8902 for visor-up and helmet off cases. A correlated METMAN model allows for the analysis and prediction of IVA suit performance without an LCG in additional scenarios.
The Orion Crew Survival Systems (OCSS) suit is equipped with safety technology that protects the crew during launch and re-entry and Intravehicular Activities (IVA). It was designed to be used with a Liquid Cooling Garment (LCG), an undergarment with tubes that circulate water to remove excess heat from a crew member. The objective of this study is to determine if the Modified Advanced Crew Escape Suit (MACES), which has very similar material, assembly, and pressure characteristics as the OCSS suit, can be used without the LCG to maintain the crew within their heat storage requirements where exceedances can lead to cognitive and physiological impairment. Testing was completed for both hot and cold environments where test subjects wore varying configurations of the MACES suit ensemble without the LCG. The tests were conducted in a temperature and humidity-controlled chamber with four test subjects ranging from extra small to large. Target metabolic rates were reached using an arm ergometer. To represent the different suit configurations seen in the concept of operations, the suit was tested with visor-down, visor-up, and without helmet and gloves. The test data was analyzed to determine how the environment, test subject size, metabolic rate, and suit configuration affected heat storage. Furthermore, the test data was used to correlate the METMAN model, a transient metabolic man program that simulates the heat transfer within a crew member’s body and from a crew member to the surrounding environment. The METMAN correlation showed good agreement between predicted heat storage and test data at the end of the test duration, with a coefficient of determination (R 2 ) value of 0.8999 for visor-down cases and R 2 of 0.8902 for visor-up and helmet off cases. A correlated METMAN model allows for the analysis and prediction of IVA suit performance without an LCG in additional scenarios.
The present report follows on the cohesive fatigue damage model methodology proposed in NASA-TP-2018-219838. In that report, an empirical function describing the incremental damage due to cyclic loading was used to calculate fatigue damage within a cohesive formulation. The form of the function was developed such that, when integrated at a constant stress amplitude from no damage to failure, it produces a life versus load response that is consistent with an S-N diagram. Therefore, the parameters of the damage model could be obtained by fitting the model predictions to an S-N diagram. The finite element analyses performed demonstrate that the cohesive fatigue accumulation function provides a link between the S-N diagram that describes crack initiation, and the Paris law that characterizes the rate of crack propagation. However, when the model was proposed, it was not known whether the form of the damage accumulation function associated with a desired S-N diagram is unique and, if not, if the link between S-N and the Paris law is unique and independent of the fatigue function selected. In the effort described herein, several alternative forms of the damage function that reproduce the desired features of S-N diagrams were found and evaluated. The effects of each of these functions on the predicted parameters of the Paris law and the propagation threshold are discussed. The results indicate that the predicted exponent m of the Paris law is indeed independent of the damage accumulation function. However, different functions predict different values for the pre-factor C of the Paris law. Therefore, the proper damage accumulation function must be selected by comparison with experiments. One of the new damage accumulation functions proposed herein was found to be particularly useful for analysis because of the ease with which the model parameters can be determined with a minimal amount of experimental information. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology and damage function was demonstrated by conducting analyses of a double cantilever beam test, a mixed-mode bending test, and a three-point bending test of a skin/doubler specimen. The results indicate that the same set of model parameters can provide accurate predictions of the rate of fatigue crack propagation for a variety of material interfaces, mode mixities, load levels, and stress ratios.
This report evaluates the economic viability of the proposed 1,200 MW, 23,365 MWh Rorex Creek Pumped Storage Hydro (PSH) plant that would be located near Pisgah, Alabama. In addressing this question, this study has developed processes, models and data that better value PSH from a utility perspective, more specifically a vertically integrated utility, enabling optimal PSH design and deployment. This study is designed to enhance TVA’s toolset in making PSH investment decisions and contribute to the design of a more cost-effective, stable future grid. These techniques can then be applied to a broader range of assets and utilities.
The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.
This chapter will provide a thorough end-to-end description of the process for evaluation of three different data-driven algorithms for anomaly detection to select the best candidate for deployment as part of a suite of IVHM (Integrated Vehicle Health Management) technologies. These algorithms were deemed to be sufficiently mature enough to be considered viable candidates for deployment in support of the maiden launch of Ares I-X, the successor to the Space Shuttle for NASA's Constellation program. Data-driven algorithms are just one of three different types being deployed [3],[5]. The other two types of algorithms being deployed include a "rule-based" expert system, and a "model-based" system. Within these two categories, the deployable candidates have already been selected based upon qualitative factors such as flight heritage. For the rile-based system, SHINE (Spacecraft High-speed Inference Engine) has been selected for deployment, which is a component of BEAM (Beacon-based Exception Analysis for Multimissions) [4], a patented technology developed at NASA's JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) and serves to aid in the management and identification of operational modes. For the "model-based" system, a commercially available package developed by QSI (Qualtech Systems, Inc.), TEAMS (Testability Engineering and Maintenance System) [1] has been selected for deployment to aid in diagnosis. In the context of this particular deployment, distinctions among the use of the terms "data-driven," "rule-based," and "model-based," call found in [5]. Although there are three different categories of algorithms that have been selected for deployment, our main focus in this chapter will be on the evaluation of three candidates for data-driven anomaly detection. These algorithms will be evaluated upon their capability for robustly detecting incipient faults or failures in the ground-based phase of pre-launch space shuttle operations, rather than based oil heritage as performed in previous studies [5]. Robust detection will allow for the achievement of pre-specified minimum false alarm and/or missed detection rates in the selection of alert thresholds. All algorithms will also be optimized with respect to all of these same criteria. Our study relies upon the use of Shuttle data to act as was a proxy for and in preparation for application to Ares I-X data, which uses a very similar hardware platform for the subsystems that are being targeted (TVC - Thrust Vector Control subsystem for the SRB (Solid Rocket Booster)).
An initial thermal power dispatch (TPD) concept of operations was evaluated that couples a nuclear power plant to a nearby hydrogen production plant. GSE Systems’ generic pressurized water reactor full-scope simulator was modified with a TPD model comprised of a thermal power extraction and delivery system. A prototype human-system interface (HSI) was developed to interact with the TPD model and allow participants to execute the basic operating scenarios for normal operations. Four retired operators performed the evaluation, and due to COVID-19 travel restrictions, the original in-person experimental design was restructured to support a remote participator evaluation using a web meeting platform. Data from operator feedback, observations from the research team, and quantitative survey responses revealed that the initial TPD concept of operations is feasible. The operators were comfortable with the engineered system and HSI and could manage it without adverse impacts to reactor power, plant safety, or equipment. Findings are discussed in terms of both the TPD system design and HSI performance.
The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.
Here, a generalized model using the Lee–Kesler approach based on the corresponding states principle is developed to assess the performance of subcritical Organic Rankine Cycles operating with different working fluids. Each fluid is characterized by five parameters: the acentric factor, critical temperature, critical pressure, molar mass, and the ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature. The model was developed using the compressibility factor modified version of the Benedict–Webb–Rubin equation proposed by Lee and Kesler and the enthalpy and entropy functions to calculate thermodynamic state properties. The model was validated by comparing the results calculated with the model and working fluid thermodynamic properties obtained with the CoolProp database. This comparison was conducted for 91 working fluids, obtaining a relative error below 5% for 88 out of the 91 fluids (∼97%). A generalized parametric study was conducted to determine the influence of the pinch point and each fluid parameter on the performance of Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) systems. It was found that efficiency increases with critical temperature, ideal-gas ratio of specific heats at the critical temperature, and acentric factor, reaching up to 13%. The developed model enables the evaluation of ORC system performance for existing working fluids. It also allows the formulation and evaluation of new fluids to enhance the performance of the ORC while retrieving energy from any kind of source; and likewise, the methodology can be applied to other power generation cycles.
Certification of adhesively bonded structures is currently a challenge for aircraft manufacturers. The ability to certify bonds in primary structure can reduce dependence on fasteners and this will enable more efficient manufacturing. For example, drilling holes and installing fasteners in bonded joints can be a potentially significant bottleneck in airframe manufacturing. In addition, fasteners increase the airframe weight and can add stress concentration areas. Reducing fastener count can accelerate manufacturing and improve aircraft performance. NASA is currently investigating nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques to assess bond integrity. For example, bond thickness influences bond strength and therefore NDE techniques are being investigated to determine bond thickness. For bonded metal structures, there is a large difference in the thermal diffusivity between the 7075 aluminum alloy metal adherends and aircraft grade adhesive. Multi-layered thermal models show a large variation in the thermal response for bondline adhesive thicknesses that vary from 100 to 300 microns for adherend thicknesses of 0.163 cm. Experimental through-transmission thermal measurements reveal promise to quantitatively characterize the bondline thickness. Results were validated with X-ray computed tomography and optical microscopy measurements, and influence of porosity on the thermal model and measurements are investigated.
Certification of adhesively bonded structures is currently a challenge for aircraft manufacturers. The ability to certify bonds in primary structure can reduce dependence on fasteners and this will enable more efficient manufacturing. For example, drilling holes and installing fasteners in bonded joints can be a potentially significant bottleneck in airframe manufacturing. In addition, fasteners increase the airframe weight and can add stress concentration areas. Reducing fastener count can accelerate manufacturing and improve aircraft performance. NASA is currently investigating nondestructive evaluation (NDE) techniques to assess bond integrity. For example, bond thickness influences bond strength and therefore NDE techniques are being investigated to determine bond thickness. For bonded metal structures, there is a large difference in the thermal diffusivity between the 7075 aluminum alloy metal adherends and aircraft grade adhesive. Multi-layered thermal models show a large variation in the thermal response for bondline adhesive thicknesses that vary from 100 to 300 microns for adherend thicknesses of 0.163 cm. Experimental through-transmission thermal measurements reveal promise to quantitatively characterize the bondline thickness. Results were validated with X-ray computed tomography and optical microscopy measurements, and influence of porosity on the thermal model and measurements are investigated.
Urban Air Mobility (UAM) promises to revolutionize transportation in major cities, offering passenger travel, cargo delivery, and emergency medical services through a network of electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft. However, the limited range of current eVTOLs, due to the low specific energy of lithium-ion batteries along with a possibility of thermal runaway conditions poses significant safety concerns, leading to potentially compromising operational safety. To address this critical challenge, researchers are actively evaluating the impact of flight and environmental conditions on onboard lithium-ion battery health. This involves carefully assessing the performance of battery packs under laboratory and operational conditions for developing models to estimate future health using prognostics framework. This study examines the effectiveness of evaluating battery degradation leading to catastrophic failures under varying operational conditions in laboratory. These are captured using physics based models of underlying phenomenons and integrated into the prognostics framework. A fully charged battery undergoes controlled discharge cycles at varying C-rates based on the simulated power draw profile, with current and voltage, temperature data recorded throughout the experiment. The observed data provides valuable insights into how different operating conditions and mission profiles affect battery performance. This information is crucial for developing strategies to optimize battery systems, enhance range, and ultimately ensure the safe and reliable operation of UAM vehicles.