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The discovery of a C Band radar pulse Doppler error is discussed and use of the GEOS 3 satellite's coherent transponder to isolate the error source is described. An analysis of the pulse Doppler tracking loop is presented and a mathematical model for the error was developed. Error correction techniques were developed and are described including implementation details.
The integration of emerging data manipulation technologies has enabled a paradigm shift in practitioners' abilities to understand and anticipate events of interest in complex systems. Example events of interest include outbreaks of socio-political violence in nation-states. Rather than relying on human-centric modeling efforts that are limited by the availability of SMEs, automated data processing technologies has enabled the development of innovative automated complex system modeling and predictive analysis technologies. We introduce one such emerging modeling technology - the sequential pattern methodology. We have applied the sequential pattern methodology to automatically identify patterns of observed behavior that precede outbreaks of socio-political violence such as riots, rebellions and coups in nation-states. The sequential pattern methodology is a groundbreaking approach to automated complex system model discovery because it generates easily interpretable patterns based on direct observations of sampled factor data for a deeper understanding of societal behaviors that is tolerant of observation noise and missing data. The discovered patterns are simple to interpret and mimic human's identifications of observed trends in temporal data. Discovered patterns also provide an automated forecasting ability: we discuss an example of using discovered patterns coupled with a rich data environment to forecast various types of socio-political violence in nation-states.
The Rossi X-ray Timing Explorer (RXTE) observed four outbursts of the accreting Xray binary transient source, GX 304−1 in 2010 and 2011. We present results of detailed 3-100 keV spectral analysis of 69 separate observations, and report a positive correlation between cyclotron line parameters, as well as other spectral parameters, with power-law flux. The cyclotron line energy, width and depth versus flux, and thus luminosity, correlations show a flattening of the relationships with increasing luminosity, which are well described by quasi-spherical or disc accretion that yield the surface magnetic field to be ∼5 × 1012 Gauss. Since HEXTE (High Energy X-ray Timing Experiment) cluster A was fixed aligned with the Proportional Counter Array field of view and cluster B was fixed viewing a background region 1. ◦ 5 off of the source direction during these observations near the end of the RXTE mission, the cluster A background was estimated from cluster B events using HEXTEBACKEST. This made possible the detection of the ∼55 keV cyclotron line and an accurate measurement of the continuum. Correlations of all spectral parameters with the primary 2-10 keV power-law flux reveal it to be the primary driver of the spectral shape. The accretion is found to be in the collisionless shock braking regime.
The Mars Exploration Program should consider following the Discovery Program model. In the Discovery Program a team of scientists led by a PI develop the science goals of their mission, decide what payload achieves the necessary measurements most effectively, and then choose a spacecraft with the capabilities needed to carry the payload to the desired target body. The primary constraints associated with the Discovery missions are time and money. The proposer must convince reviewers that their mission has scientific merit and is feasible. Every Announcement of Opportunity has resulted in a collection of creative ideas that fit within advertised constraints. Following this model, a "Mars Discovery Program" would issue an Announcement of Opportunity for each launch opportunity with schedule constraints dictated by the launch window and fiscal constraints in accord with the program budget. All else would be left to the proposer to choose, based on the science the team wants to accomplish, consistent with the program theme of "Life, Climate and Resources". A proposer could propose a lander, an orbiter, a fleet of SCOUT vehicles or penetrators, an airplane, a balloon mission, a large rover, a small rover, etc. depending on what made the most sense for the science investigation and payload. As in the Discovery program, overall feasibility relative to cost, schedule and technology readiness would be evaluated and be part of the selection process.
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Our work explores the use of extended reality (XR) to im- prove scientific discovery with numerical weather/climate models that inform Earth science digital twins, specifically the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) global atmospheric model. The overall project is named the Vi- sualization And Lagrangian dynamics Immersive eXtended Reality Toolkit (VALIXR), which has two main areas of focus: (1) enhancing the understanding of and interaction with model output data through advanced visualizations in the XR environment, and (2) the integration of Lagrangian dynamics into the GEOS model, which allows a natural, feature-specific analysis of Earth science phenomena as op- posed to traditional, fixed-point Eulerian dynamics. Here, we report initial work on these focus areas.
Recent discovery by STEREO A/B of energetic neutral hydrogen is spurring an interest and need for reliable estimates of electron capture cross sections at few MeVs per nucleon as well as for multi-electron ions. Required accuracy in such estimates necessitates detailed and involved quantum-mechanical calculations or expensive numerical simulations. For ENA modeling and similar purposes, a semi-classical approach offers a middle-ground approach. Kuang's semiclassical formalism to calculate electron-capture cross sections for single and multi-electron ions is an elegant and efficient method, but has so far been applied to limited and specific laboratory measurements and at somewhat lower energies. Our goals are to test and extend Kuang s method to all ion-atom and ion-ion collisions relevant to ENA modeling, including multi-electron ions and for K-shell to K-shell transitions.
Earth science (ES) digital twins will help us understand the complex interactions and interrelationships that make up our Earth system and the impacts of earth science phenomena on it. Our work addresses two underdeveloped areas in current ES digital twin work: improving the understanding and interaction with ES model outputs by using Virtual and Mixed Reality (XR) tools and improving the non-intuitive mapping of continuous ES natural phenomena to gridded reference frames in current numerical models. Traditionally, scientists working on ES view and analyze the results of calculated or measured observables with static 1-dimensional (1D), 2D or 3D plots displayed on flat computer screens or paper. Using such limited mediums, it can be very difficult to identify, track and understand the evolution of key features due to poor viewing angles and the nature of flat computer screens. In addition, numerical models, such as the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ES model, are almost exclusively formulated, visualized and analyzed in an Eulerian reference frame with fixed grid points in space and time. However, ES phenomena such as convective clouds, hurricanes and wildfire smoke plumes are visualized and analyzed in a Lagrangian reference frame: therefore it is often difficult and unnatural to understand these phenomena in relation to each other, visualized either in an Eulerian or Lagrangian context. In 3D visualizations, data generally takes one of three forms: gridded (e.g., voxelized) data, where space is divided into regions; point clouds, where data is represented as a set of points; and meshes, where objects are rendered as surfaces composed of small polygons (usually triangles). A gridded, Eulerian reference frame has been the default representation for the 2D visual analysis of atmospheric data in part because the numerical methods used to generate atmospheric model data in the first place use a gridded approach, with equations defining the relationships between the physical variables in each of a grid's cells across successive timesteps. In our work, we are particularly interested in data from GEOS. Another reason why gridded representations tend to be used for visualizing data from such models is because trajectories are difficult to interpret from representations on 2D surfaces, due to line-of-sight ambiguity. Instead of a fixed grid from GEOS, we embed a trajectory model to simulate particles' movement throughout a GEOS run. We then ingest these particle trajectories as animated point clouds with a NASA open source XR toolkit, the Mixed Reality Exploration Toolkit (MRET), and merge GEOS data with ES phenomena data onto one combined visualization that the user can intuitively interact with. Efficient rendering of arbitrarily large point clouds is an ongoing challenge being addressed by the computer science community, with the GPU-based optimizations and efficient GPU memory utilization a common theme of recent advances, especially for XR, where sustained high frame rate is mandatory to save the user from suffering due to simulation sickness. In this work, we describe and evaluate our progress in choosing and implementing appropriate methods for rendering arbitrarily large point clouds within MRET for XR. While tracking the XR headset enables the immersion of a user within a 3D scene of a data visualization, tracking of XR handheld controllers or user’s hands enables us to implement intuitive user interactions with the visualized datasets. Conventional tools require a user working with an ES visualization to conduct many interactions to commit their intended selections or manipulations with a visualized dataset; for example to specify a set of points in 3D space. Doing so in a 2D flat screen interface has traditionally required specifying a set of points in three distinct 2D coordinate systems (XY, XZ, and YZ), which is cumbersome. In other scientific domains, it has been shown that specifying or selecting a location or volume in XR using handheld controllers or tracked hands allows for greater speed and accuracy. We anticipate the same will hold true for atmospheric data, and we will share initial results of measuring the utility of such an interface. Notably, as the data being visualized is generated by GEOS as a prediction based on initial conditions, an intended application of our tool is to serve as part of an iterative feedback loop. Through XR, a scientist will review and manipulate a GEOS model run, modifying the conditions as needed to do subsequent runs of GEOS. Thereby, XR-based improvements to speed and accuracy of 3D tagging of points minimizes the effort required by both the scientist and the computer cluster conducting the necessary calculations.
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The Generate, Prune & Prove (GPP) methodology for discovering definitions of mathematical operators is introduced. GPP is a task within the IL exploration discovery system. We developed GPP for use in the discovery of mathematical operators with a wider class of representations than was possible with the previous methods by Lenat and by Shen. GPP utilizes the purpose for which an operator is created to prune the possible definitions. The relevant search spaces are immense and there exists insufficient information for a complete evaluation of the purpose constraint, so it is necessary to perform a partial evaluation of the purpose (i.e., pruning) constraint. The constraint is first transformed so that it is operational with respect to the partial information, and then it is applied to examples in order to test the generated candidates for an operator's definition. In the GPP process, once a candidate definition survives this empirical prune, it is passed on to a theorem prover for formal verification. We describe the application of this methodology to the (re)discovery of the definition of multiplication for Conway numbers, a discovery which is difficult for human mathematicians. We successfully model this discovery process utilizing information which was reasonably available at the time of Conway's original discovery. As part of this discovery process, we reduce the size of the search space from a computationally intractable size to 3468 elements.
The DoD M&S Steering Committee has noted that the current DoD and Service's modeling and simulation resource repository (MSRR) services are not up-to-date limiting their value to the using communities. However, M&S leaders and managers also determined that the Department needs a functional M&S registry card catalog to facilitate M&S tool and data visibility to support M&S activities across the DoD. The M&S Catalog will discover and access M&S metadata maintained at nodes distributed across DoD networks in a centrally managed, decentralized process that employs metadata collection and management. The intent is to link information stores, precluding redundant location updating. The M&S Catalog uses a standard metadata schemas based on the DoD's Net-Centric Data Strategy Community of Interest metadata specification. The Air Force, Navy and OSD (CAPE) have provided initial information to participating DoD nodes, but plans on the horizon are being made to bring in hundreds of source providers.
A model of the petroleum exploration process that tests empirically the hypothesis that at an early stage in the exploration of a basin, the process behaves like sampling without replacement is proposed along with a model of the spatial distribution of petroleum reserviors that conforms to observed facts. In developing the model of discovery, the following topics are discussed: probabilitistic proportionality, likelihood function, and maximum likelihood estimation. In addition, the spatial model is described, which is defined as a stochastic process generating values of a sequence or random variables in a way that simulates the frequency distribution of areal extent, the geographic location, and shape of oil deposits
The Space Physics Archive Search and Extract Consortium has developed and implemented the SPASE Data Model that provides a common language for registering a wide range of Heliophysics data and other products. The Data Model enables discovery and access tools such that any researcher can obtain data easily, thereby facilitating research, including on space weather. The Data Model includes descriptions of Simulation Models and Numerical Output, pioneered by the Integrated Medium for Planetary Exploration (IMPEx) group in Europe, and subsequently adopted by the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC). The SPASE group intends to register all relevant Heliophysics data resources, including space-, ground-, and model-based. Substantial progress has been made, especially for space-based observational data and associated observatories, instruments, and display data. Legacy product registrations and access go back more than 50 years. Real-time data will be included. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) portion of the SPASE group has funding that assures continuity in the upkeep of the Data Model and aids with adding new products. Tools are being developed for making and editing data descriptions. Digital Object Identifiers (DOIs) for Data Products can now be included in the descriptions. The data access that SPASE facilitates is becoming more uniform, and work is progressing on Web Service access via a standard Application Programming Interface. The SPASE Data Model is stable; changes over the past 9 years were additions of terms and capabilities that are backward compatible. This paper provides a summary of the history, structure, use, and future of the SPASE Data Model.
The State Analysis Database Tool software establishes a productive environment for collaboration among software and system engineers engaged in the development of complex interacting systems. The tool embodies State Analysis, a model-based system engineering methodology founded on a state-based control architecture (see figure). A state represents a momentary condition of an evolving system, and a model may describe how a state evolves and is affected by other states. The State Analysis methodology is a process for capturing system and software requirements in the form of explicit models and states, and defining goal-based operational plans consistent with the models. Requirements, models, and operational concerns have traditionally been documented in a variety of system engineering artifacts that address different aspects of a mission s lifecycle. In State Analysis, requirements, models, and operations information are State Analysis artifacts that are consistent and stored in a State Analysis Database. The tool includes a back-end database, a multi-platform front-end client, and Web-based administrative functions. The tool is structured to prompt an engineer to follow the State Analysis methodology, to encourage state discovery and model description, and to make software requirements and operations plans consistent with model descriptions.
The recent discovery of nitrogen on Pluto suggests that Pluto's volatile cycles may be similar to those on Neptune's moon Triton. Here, we report the first results of our efforts to apply a thermal model that we developed to study the seasonal nitrogen cycle on Triton to the case of Pluto. The model predicts volatile behavior as a function of time to calculate frost deposit depth, polar cap boundaries, temperature of the frost and substrate, and atmospheric pressure, assuming nitrogen frost deposits in solid-vapor equilibrium with nitrogen in the atmosphere.
The Discovery and Synchronization service (DSS) has implemented some reasonable technical controls that help improve security and there are very few technical findings. The use of Docker and Kubernetes helps simplify the deployment process, and the DSS uses mutual TLS (mTLS) to connect. Much of the security risk across the DSS is a factor of its nature, a distributed environment that relies on all members to secure their parts correctly. As such, the DSS team should attempt to emphasize security controls that reduce complexity for securing entities’ Cockroach DB (CRDB) instances properly and improve coordination among DSS members for things like security patching, incident response, detecting, and removing bad actors. The DSS team must recognize that operating a DSS instance securely will require a combination of technical and procedural controls. Each DSS entity must configure their instance properly and follow standard operating procedures to ensure that the DSS service is secure.
This paper highlights globular cluster studies with Ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (UIT) in three areas: the discrepancy between observed ultraviolet HB magnitudes and predictions of theoretical HB models; the discovery of two hot subdwarfs in NGC 1851, a globular not previously known to contain such stars; and spectroscopic follow up of newly identified UV-bright stars in M79 and w Cen. I also present results of a recent observation of NGC 6397 with the Voyager ultraviolet spectrometer.
Safety, failure, and incident reports are common artifacts across various domains, including aviation and wildfire response. These reports are often mandatory to submit, resulting in the culmination of large repositories of text-based documents. Simultaneously, these reports and corresponding repositories are often only manually analyzed and queried by users via out-of-date search engines. As a consequence, we have been developing the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) toolkit, which uses natural language processing to improve information access and reuse. In this presentation, we discuss natural language processing techniques for knowledge discovery and apply these methods to a repository of aerial wildfire mishap reports. Two methods are used for knowledge discovery: topic modeling and named-entity recognition. We use topic modeling to identify hazards and perform a trend analysis to produce a data-driven risk matrix. A custom named-entity recognition model, build from fine tuning a pre-trained language model, is used to identify failure modes, failure causes, failure effects, control processes, and recommendations to aid in failure modes and effects analysis (FMEA). Throughout the presentation, we discuss and apply natural language processing techniques to better leverage the vast amount of information contained in report repositories.