On the Contribution of Longwave Radiation to Global Climate Model Biases in Arctic Lower Tropospheric Stability
Abstract not provided
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
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Results for “model bias”
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Impacts of Model Bias on the Climate Change Signal and Effects of Weighted Ensembles of Regional Climate Model Simulations: A Case Study over Southern Québec, Canada
This study examined the impact of model biases on climate change signals for daily precipitation and for minimum and maximum temperatures. Through the use of multiple climate scenarios from 12 regional climate model simulations, the ensemble mean, and three synthetic simulations generated by a weighting procedure, we investigated intermodel seasonal climate change signals between current and future periods, for both median and extreme precipitation/temperature values. A significant dependence of seasonal climate change signals on the model biases over southern Québec in Canada was detected for temperatures, but not for precipitation. This suggests that the regional temperature change signal is affected by local processes. Seasonally, model bias affects future mean and extreme values in winter and summer. In addition, potentially large increases in future extremes of temperature and precipitation values were projected. For three synthetic scenarios, systematically less bias and a narrow range of mean change for all variables were projected compared to those of climate model simulations. In addition, synthetic scenarios were found to better capture the spatial variability of extreme cold temperatures than the ensemble mean scenario. Finally, these results indicate that the synthetic scenarios have greater potential to reduce the uncertainty of future climate projections and capture the spatial variability of extreme climate events.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Satellite-based evaluation of AeroCom model bias in biomass burning regions
Global models are widely used to simulate biomass burning aerosol (BBA). Exhaustive evaluations on model representation of aerosol distributions and properties are fundamental to assess health and climate impacts of BBA. Here we conducted a comprehensive comparison of Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models (AeroCom) project model simulations with satellite observations. A total of 59 runs by 18 models from three AeroCom Phase-III experiments (i.e., biomass burning emissions, CTRL16, and CTRL19) and 14 satellite products of aerosols were used in the study. Aerosol optical depth (AOD) at 550 nm was investigated during the fire season over three key fire regions reflecting different fire dynamics (i.e., deforestation-dominated Amazon, Southern Hemisphere Africa where savannas are the key source of emissions, and boreal forest burning in boreal North America). The 14 satellite products were first evaluated against AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) observations, with large uncertainties found. But these uncertainties had small impacts on the model evaluation that was dominated by modeling bias. Through a comparison with Polarization and Directionality of the Earth’s Reflectances measurements with the Generalized Retrieval of Aerosol and Surface Properties algorithm (POLDER-GRASP), we found that the modeled AOD values were biased by –93 % to 152 %, with most models showing significant underestimations even for the state-of-the-art aerosol modeling techniques (i.e., CTRL19). By scaling up BBA emissions, the negative biases in modeled AOD were significantly mitigated, although it yielded only negligible improvements in the correlation between models and observations, and the spatial and temporal variations in AOD biases did not change much. For models in CTRL16 and CTRL19, the large diversity in modeled AOD was in almost equal measures caused by diversity in emissions, lifetime, and the mass extinction coefficient (MEC). We found that in the AeroCom ensemble, BBA lifetime correlated significantly with particle deposition (as expected) and in turn correlated strongly with precipitation. Additional analysis based on Cloud-Aerosol LIdar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP) aerosol profiles suggested that the altitude of the aerosol layer in the current models was generally too low, which also contributed to the bias in modeled lifetime. Modeled MECs exhibited significant correlations with the Ångström exponent (AE, an indicator of particle size). Comparisons with the POLDER-GRASP-observed AE suggested that the models tended to overestimate the AE (underestimated particle size), indicating a possible underestimation of MECs in models. The hygroscopic growth in most models generally agreed with observations and might not explain the overall underestimation of modeled AOD. Our results imply that current global models contain biases in important aerosol processes for BBA (e.g., emissions, removal, and optical properties) that remain to be addressed in future research.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Hyper Suprime-Cam Year 3 results: Cosmology from galaxy clustering and weak lensing with HSC and SDSS using the minimal bias model
Here, we present cosmological parameter constraints from a blind joint analysis of three two-point correlation functions measured from the Year 3 Hyper Suprime-Cam (HSC-Y3) imaging data, covering about 416 deg 2 , and the SDSS DR11 spectroscopic galaxies spanning the redshift range [0.15, 0.70]. We subdivide the SDSS galaxies into three luminosity-cut, and therefore nearly volume-limited samples separated in redshift, each of which acts as a large-scale structure tracer characterized by the measurement of the projected correlation function, w p (R). We also use the measurements of the galaxy-galaxy weak-lensing signal ΔΣ(R) for each of these SDSS samples which act as lenses for a secure sample of source galaxies selected from the HSC-Y3 shape catalog based on their photometric redshifts. We combine these measurements with the cosmic shear correlation functions, ξ ± ($\vartheta$) measured for our HSC source sample. We model these observables with the minimal bias model of the galaxy clustering observables in the context of a flat ΛCDM cosmology. We use conservative scale cuts, R >12 and 8ℎ -1 Mpc for ΔΣ and w p , respectively, where the minimal bias model is valid, in addition to conservative prior on the residual bias in the mean redshift of the HSC photometric source galaxies. We present various validation tests of our model as well as analysis methods. Our baseline analysis yields S 8 = $0.775^{+0.043}_{-0.038}$ (68% C.I.) for the ΛCDM model, after marginalizing over uncertainties in other parameters. Our value of S 8 is consistent with that from the Planck 2018 data, but the credible interval of our result is still relatively large. We show that various internal consistency tests based on different splits of the data are passed. Our results are statistically consistent with those of a companion paper, which extends this analysis to smaller scales with an emulator-based halo model, using ΔΣ(R) and w p (R) down to R >3 and 2ℎ -1 Mpc, respectively.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
A fully Lagrangian, non-parametric bias model for dark matter halos
Here, we present a non-parametric Lagrangian biasing model and fit the ratio of the halo and mass densities at the field level using the mass-weighted halo field in the AbacusSummit simulations at z=0.5. Unlike the perturbative halo bias model that has been widely used in interpreting the observed large-scale structure traced by galaxies, we find a non-negative halo-to-mass ratio that increases monotonically with the linear overdensity δ 1 in the initial Lagrangian space. The bias expansion, however, does not guarantee non-negativity of the halo counts, and may lead to rising halo number counts at negative overdensities. The shape of the halo-to-mass ratio is unlikely to be described by a polynomial function of δ 1 and other quantities. Especially for massive halos with 6×10 12 h -1 M ⊙ , the halo-to-mass ratio starts soaring up at δ 1 >0, substantially different from the predictions of the bias expansion. We show that for the halo masses we consider (M>3×10 11 h -1 M ⊙ ) a non-parametric halo-to-mass ratio as a function of δ 1 and its local derivative ∇^2δ 1 can recover the halo power spectra to sub-percent level accuracy for wavenumbers k=0.01-0.1 h Mpc -1 given a proper smoothing scale to filter the initial density field, even though we do not fit the power spectrum directly. However, there is mild dependence of the recovery of the halo power spectrum on the smoothing scale and other input parameters. At k<0.01 h Mpc -1 and for massive halos with M>6x10 12 h -1 M ⊙ , our non-parametric model leads to a few percent overestimation of the halo power spectrum, indicating the need for larger or multiple smoothing scales. The halo-to-mass ratios obtained qualitatively agree with intuitions from extended Press-Schechter theory. We compare our framework to the bias expansion and discuss possible extensions.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Implications of a Pervasive Climate Model Bias for Low‐Cloud Feedback
Abstract How low clouds respond to warming constitutes a key uncertainty for climate projections. Here we observationally constrain low‐cloud feedback through a controlling factor analysis based on ridge regression. We find a moderately positive global low‐cloud feedback (0.45 W , 90% range 0.18–0.72 W ), about twice the mean value (0.22 W ) of 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. We link this discrepancy to a pervasive model mean‐state bias: models underestimate the low‐cloud response to warming because (a) they systematically underestimate present‐day tropical marine low‐cloud amount, and (b) the low‐cloud sensitivity to warming is proportional to this present‐day low‐cloud amount. Our results hence highlight the importance of reducing model biases in both the mean state of clouds and their sensitivity to environmental factors for accurate climate change projections.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Surface Salinity Under Transitioning Ice Cover in the Canada Basin: Climate Model Biases Linked to Vertical Distribution of Fresh Water
Abstract The Canada Basin has exhibited a significant trend toward a fresher surface layer and thus a more stratified upper‐ocean over the past three decades. State‐of‐the‐art ice‐ocean models, by contrast, tend to simulate a surface layer that is saltier and less stratified than observed. Here, we examine decadal changes to seasonal processes that may contribute to this wide‐reaching model bias using climate model simulations from the Community Earth System Model and below‐ice observations from the Arctic Ice Dynamics Joint Experiment in 1975 and Ice Tethered Profilers in 2006–2012. In contrast to the observations, the models simulate salinity profiles that show relatively little variation between 1975 and 2012. We demonstrate that this bias can be mainly attributed to unrealistically deep vertical mixing in the model, creating a surface layer that is saltier than observed. The results provide insight for climate model improvement with broad implications for Arctic sea ice and ecosystem dynamics.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Moving beyond the total sea ice extent in gauging model biases
Here, reproducing characteristics of observed sea ice extent remains an important climate modeling challenge. This study describes several approaches to improve how model biases in total sea ice distribution are quantified, and applies them to historically forced simulations contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The quantity of hemispheric total sea ice area, or some measure of its equatorward extent, is often used to evaluate model performance. A new approach is introduced that investigates additional details about the structure of model errors, with an aim to reduce the potential impact of compensating errors when gauging differences between simulated and observed sea ice. Using multiple observational datasets, several new methods are applied to evaluate the climatological spatial distribution and the annual cycle of sea ice cover in 41 CMIP5 models. It is shown that in some models, error compensation can be substantial, for example resulting from too much sea ice in one region and too little in another. Error compensation tends to be larger in models that agree more closely with the observed total sea ice area, which may result from model tuning. The results herein suggest that consideration of only the total hemispheric sea ice area or extent can be misleading when quantitatively comparing how well models agree with observations. Further work is needed to fully develop robust methods to holistically evaluate the ability of models to capture the finescale structure of sea ice characteristics; however, the “sector scale” metric used here aids in reducing the impact of compensating errors in hemispheric integrals.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Near-term tropical cyclone risk and coupled Earth system model biases
Most current climate models predict that the equatorial Pacific will evolve under greenhouse gas–induced warming to a more El Niño-like state over the next several decades, with a reduced zonal sea surface temperature gradient and weakened atmospheric Walker circulation. Yet, observations over the last 50 y show the opposite trend, toward a more La Niña-like state. Recent research provides evidence that the discrepancy cannot be dismissed as due to internal variability but rather that the models are incorrectly simulating the equatorial Pacific response to greenhouse gas warming. This implies that projections of regional tropical cyclone activity may be incorrect as well, perhaps even in the direction of change, in ways that can be understood by analogy to historical El Niño and La Niña events: North Pacific tropical cyclone projections will be too active, North Atlantic ones not active enough, for example. Other perils, including severe convective storms and droughts, will also be projected erroneously. While it can be argued that these errors are transient, such that the models’ responses to greenhouse gases may be correct in equilibrium, the transient response is relevant for climate adaptation in the next several decades. Given the urgency of understanding regional patterns of climate risk in the near term, it would be desirable to develop projections that represent a broader range of possible future tropical Pacific warming scenarios—including some in which recent historical trends continue—even if such projections cannot currently be produced using existing coupled earth system models.
Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
Collaborative Project: Understanding Climate Model Biases in Tropical Atlantic and Their Impact on Simulations of Extreme Climate Events
Recent studies have revealed that among all the tropical oceans, the tropical Atlantic has experienced the most pronounced warming trend over the 20th century. Many extreme climate events affecting the U.S., such as hurricanes, severe precipitation and drought events, are influenced by conditions in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. It is therefore imperative to have accurate simulations of the climatic mean and variability in the Atlantic region to be able to make credible projections of future climate change affecting the U.S. and other countries adjoining the Atlantic Ocean. Unfortunately, almost all global climate models exhibit large biases in their simulations of tropical Atlantic climate. The atmospheric convection simulation errors in the Amazon region and the associated errors in the trade wind simulations are hypothesized to be a leading cause of the tropical Atlantic biases in climate models. As global climate models have resolutions that are too coarse to resolve some of the atmospheric and oceanic processes responsible for the model biases, we propose to use a high-resolution coupled regional climate model (CRCM) framework to address the tropical bias issue. We propose to combine the expertise in tropical coupled atmosphere-ocean modeling at Texas A&M University (TAMU) and the coupled land-atmosphere modeling expertise at Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop a comprehensive CRCM for the Atlantic sector within a general and flexible modeling framework. The atmospheric component of the CRCM will be the NCAR WRF model and the oceanic component will be the Rutgers/UCLA ROMS. For the land component, we will use CLM modified at PNNL to include more detailed representations of vegetation and soil hydrology processes. The combined TAMU-PNNL CRCM model will be used to simulate the Atlantic climate, and the associated land-atmosphere-ocean interactions at a horizontal resolution of 9 km or finer. A particular focus of the model development effort will be to optimize the performance of WRF and ROMS over several thousand of cores by focusing on both the parallel communication libraries and the I/O interfaces, in order to achieve the sustained throughput needed to perform simulations on such fine resolution grids. The CRCM model will be developed within the framework of the Coupler (CPL7) software that is part of the NCAR Community Earth System Model (CESM). Through efforts at PNNL and within the community, WRF and CLM have already been coupled via CPL7. Using the flux coupler approach for the whole CRCM model will allow us to flexibly couple WRF, ROMS, and CLM with each model running on its own grid at different resolutions. In addition, this framework will allow us to easily port parameterizations between CESM and the CRCM, and potentially allow partial coupling between the CESM and the CRCM. TAMU and PNNL will contribute cooperatively to this research endeavor. The TAMU team led by Chang and Saravanan has considerable experience in studying atmosphere-ocean interactions within tropical Atlantic sector and will focus on modeling issues that relate to coupling WRF and ROMS. The PNNL team led by Leung has extensive expertise in atmosphere-land interaction and will be responsible for improving the land surface parameterization. Both teams will jointly work on integrating WRF-ROMS and WRF-CLM to couple WRF, ROMS, and CLM through CPL7. Montuoro of the TAMU Supercomputing Center will be responsible for improving the MPI and Parallel IO interfaces of the CRCM. Both teams will contribute to the design and execution of the proposed numerical experiments and jointly perform analysis of the numerical experiments.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Model bias in simulating major chemical components of PM 2.5 in China
High concentrations of PM 2.5 (particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm) in China have caused severe visibility degradation. Accurate simulations of PM 2.5 and its chemical components are essential for evaluating the effectiveness of pollution control strategies and the health and climate impacts of air pollution. In this study, we compared the GEOS-Chem model simulations with comprehensive datasets for organic aerosol (OA), sulfate, nitrate, and ammonium in China. Model results are evaluated spatially and temporally against observations. The new OA scheme with a simplified secondary organic aerosol (SOA) parameterization significantly improves the OA simulations in polluted urban areas, highlighting the important contributions of anthropogenic SOA from semivolatile and intermediate-volatility organic compounds. The model underestimates sulfate and overestimates nitrate for most of the sites throughout the year. More significant underestimation of sulfate occurs in winter, while the overestimation of nitrate is extremely large in summer. The model is unable to capture some of the main features in the diurnal pattern of the PM 2.5 chemical components, suggesting inaccuracies in the presented processes. Potential model adjustments that may lead to a better representation of the boundary layer height, the precursor emissions, hydroxyl radical concentrations, the heterogeneous formation of sulfate and nitrate, and the wet deposition of nitric acid and nitrate have been tested in the sensitivity analysis. The results show that uncertainties in chemistry perhaps dominate the model biases. The proper implementation of heterogeneous sulfate formation and the good estimates of the concentrations of sulfur dioxide, hydroxyl radical, and aerosol liquid water are essential for the improvement of the sulfate simulation. The update of the heterogeneous uptake coefficient of nitrogen dioxide significantly reduces the modeled concentrations of nitrate. However, the large overestimation of nitrate concentrations remains in summer for all tested cases. The possible bias in the chemical production and the wet deposition of nitrate cannot fully explain the model overestimation of nitrate, suggesting issues related to the atmospheric removal of nitric acid and nitrate. A better understanding of the atmospheric nitrogen budget, in particular, the role of the photolysis of particulate nitrate, is needed for future model developments. Moreover, the results suggest that the remaining underestimation of OA in the model is associated with the underrepresented production of SOA.
37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
Precipitation and Moisture in Four Leading CMIP5 Models: Biases across Large-Scale Circulation Regimes and Their Attribution to Dynamic and Thermodynamic Factors
As key variables in general circulation models, precipitation and moisture in four leading models from CMIP5 (phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) are analyzed, with a focus on four tropical oceanic regions. It is found that precipitation in these models is overestimated in most areas. However, moisture bias has large intermodel differences. The model biases in precipitation and moisture are further examined in conjunction with large-scale circulation by regime-sorting analysis. Results show that all models consistently overestimate the frequency of occurrence of strong upward motion regimes and peak descending regimes of 500-hPa vertical velocity $ω500$. In a given $ω500$ regime, models produce too much precipitation compared to observation and reanalysis. But for moisture, their biases differ from model to model and also from level to level. Furthermore, error causes are revealed through decomposing contribution biases into dynamic and thermodynamic components. For precipitation, the contribution errors in strong upward motion regimes are attributed to the overly frequent $ω500$. In the weak upward motion regime, the biases in the dependence of precipitation on $ω500$ and the $ω500$ probability density function (PDF) make comparable contributions, but often of opposite signs. On the other hand, the biases in column-integrated water vapor contribution are mainly due to errors in the frequency of occurrence of $ω500$, while thermodynamic components contribute little. These findings suggest that errors in the frequency of $ω500$ occurrence are a significant cause of biases in the precipitation and moisture simulation.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Dark Energy Survey Year 3 Results: Constraints on cosmological parameters and galaxy bias models from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the redMaGiC sample
We constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias parameters using the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey Year-3 data. We describe our modeling framework and choice of scales analyzed, validating their robustness to theoretical uncertainties in small-scale clustering by analyzing simulated data. Using a linear galaxy bias model and redMaGiC galaxy sample, we obtain constraints on the matter content of the universe to be $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.325^{+0.033}_{-0.034}$. We also implement a non-linear galaxy bias model to probe smaller scales that includes parameterizations based on hybrid perturbation theory, and find that it leads to a 17% gain in cosmological constraining power. Using the redMaGiC galaxy sample as foreground lens galaxies, we find the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to exhibit significant signals akin to decorrelation between galaxies and mass on large scales, which is not expected in any current models. This likely systematic measurement error biases our constraints on galaxy bias and the $S_8$ parameter. We find that a scale-, redshift- and sky-area-independent phenomenological decorrelation parameter can effectively capture this inconsistency between the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. We perform robustness tests of our methodology pipeline and demonstrate stability of the constraints to changes in the theory model. After accounting for this decorrelation, we infer the constraints on the mean host halo mass of the redMaGiC galaxies from the large-scale bias constraints, finding the galaxies occupy halos of mass approximately $1.5 \times 10^{13} M_{\odot}/h$.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Dark Energy Survey year 3 results: Constraints on cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias models from galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using the redMaGiC sample
We constrain cosmological parameters and galaxy-bias parameters using the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) year-3 data. We describe our modeling framework and choice of scales analyzed, validating their robustness to theoretical uncertainties in small-scale clustering by analyzing simulated data. Using a linear galaxy-bias model and redMaGiC galaxy sample, we obtain 10% constraints on the matter density of the Universe. Here, we also implement a nonlinear galaxy-bias model to probe smaller scales that includes parametrization based on hybrid perturbation theory and find that it leads to a 17% gain in cosmological constraining power. We perform robustness tests of our methodology pipeline and demonstrate stability of the constraints to changes in the theory model. Using the redMaGiC galaxy sample as foreground lens galaxies and adopting the best-fitting cosmological parameters from DES year-1 data, we find the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing measurements to exhibit significant signals akin to decorrelation between galaxies and mass on large scales, which is not expected in any current models. This likely systematic measurement error biases our constraints on galaxy bias and the S 8 parameter. We find that a scale-, redshift- and sky-area-independent phenomenological decorrelation parameter can effectively capture this inconsistency between the galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. We trace the source of this correlation to a color-dependent photometric issue and minimize its impact on our result by changing the selection criteria of redMaGiC galaxies. Using this new sample, our constraints on the S 8 parameter are consistent with previous studies and we find a small shift in the Ω m constraints compared to the fiducial redMaGiC sample. We infer the constraints on the mean host-halo mass of the redMaGiC galaxies in this new sample from the large-scale bias constraints, finding the galaxies occupy halos of mass approximately 1.6 × 10 13 M ⊙ /h.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific
Abstract We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28 different models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). Model‐analog forecast skill has been demonstrated to match or even exceed traditional assimilation‐initialized forecast skill in a given model. Models with the most realistic mean states and interannual variability for SST, precipitation, and 10‐m zonal winds in the equatorial Pacific also generate the most skillful precipitation forecasts in the central equatorial Pacific and the best SST forecasts at 6‐month or longer leads. These results show direct links between model climatological biases and seasonal forecast errors, demonstrating that model‐analog hindcast skill—that is, how well a model can capture the observed evolution of tropical Pacific anomalies—is an informative El Niño/Southern Oscillation metric for climate simulations.
Ding, Hui↗
What is the importance of climate model bias when projecting the impacts of climate change on land surface processes?
Regional climate change impact (CCI) studies have widely involved downscaling and bias-correcting (BC) Global Climate Model (GCM)-projected climate for driving land surface models. However, BC may cause uncertainties in projecting hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to future climate due to the impaired spatiotemporal covariance of climate variables and a breakdown of physical conservation principles. Here we quantify the impact of BC on simulated climate-driven changes in water variables(evapotranspiration, ET; runoff; snow water equivalent, SWE; and water demand for irrigation), crop yield, biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOC), nitric oxide (NO) emissions, and dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) export over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) Region. We also quantify the impacts on net primary production (NPP) over a small watershed in the region (HJ Andrews). Simulation results from the coupled ECHAM5/MPI-OM model with A1B emission scenario were firstly dynamically downscaled to 12 km resolutions with WRF model. Then a quantile mapping based statistical downscaling model was used to downscale them into 1/16th degree resolution daily climate data over historical and future periods. Two series climate data were generated according to the option of bias-correction (i.e. with bias-correction (BC) and without bias-correction, NBC). Impact models were then applied to estimate hydrologic and biogeochemical responses to both BC and NBC meteorological datasets. These im20 pact models include a macro-scale hydrologic model (VIC), a coupled cropping system model (VIC-CropSyst), an ecohydrologic model (RHESSys), a biogenic emissions model (MEGAN), and a nutrient export model (Global-NEWS). Results demonstrate that the BC and NBC climate data provide consistent estimates of the climate-driven changes in water fluxes (ET, runoff, and water demand), VOCs (isoprene and monoterpenes) and NO emissions, mean crop yield, and river DIN export over the PNW domain. However, significant differences rise from projected SWE, crop yield from dry lands, and HJ Andrews’s ET between BC and NBC data. Even though BC post-processing has no significant impacts on most of the studied variables when taking PNW as a whole, their effects have large spatial variations and some local areas are substantially influenced. In addition, there are months during which BC and NBC post-processing produces significant differences in projected changes, such as summer runoff. Factor-controlled simulations indicate that BC post-processing of precipitation and temperature both substantially contribute to these differences at region scales. We conclude that there are trade-offs between using BC climate data for offline CCI studies vs. direct modeled climate data. These trade-offs should be considered when designing integrated modeling frameworks for specific applications; e.g., BC may be more important when considering impacts on reservoir operations in mountainous watersheds than when investigating impacts on biogenic emissions and air quality (where VOCs are a primary indicator).
Liu, M. L.↗
Reducing model bias in a deep learning classifier using domain adversarial neural networks in the MINERvA experiment
We present a simulation-based study using deep convolutional neural networks (DCNNs) to identify neutrino interaction vertices in the MINERvA passive targets region, and illustrate the application of domain adversarial neural networks (DANNs) in this context. DANNs are designed to be trained in one domain (simulated data) but tested in a second domain (physics data) and utilize unlabeled data from the second domain so that during training only features which are unable to discriminate between the domains are promoted. MINERvA is a neutrino-nucleus scattering experiment using the NuMI beamline at Fermilab. A-dependent cross sections are an important part of the physics program, and these measurements require vertex finding in complicated events. To illustrate the impact of the DANN we used a modified set of simulation in place of physics data during the training of the DANN and then used the label of the modified simulation during the evaluation of the DANN. In conclusion, we find that deep learning based methods offer significant advantages over our prior track-based reconstruction for the task of vertex finding, and that DANNs are able to improve the performance of deep networks by leveraging available unlabeled data and by mitigating network performance degradation rooted in biases in the physics models used for training.
72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
Squeezing the halo bispectrum: a test of bias models
We study the halo-matter cross bispectrum in the presence of primordial non-Gaussianity of the local type. We restrict ourselves to the squeezed limit, for which the calculation are straightforward, and perform the measurements in the initial conditions of N-body simulations, to mitigate the contamination induced by nonlinear gravitational evolution. Interestingly, the halo-matter cross bispectrum is not trivial even in this simple limit as it is strongly sensitive to the scale-dependence of the quadratic and third-order halo bias. Therefore, it can be used to test biasing prescriptions. We consider three different prescription for halo clustering: excursion set peaks (ESP), local bias and a model in which the halo bias parameters are explicitly derived from a peak-background split. In all cases, the model parameters are fully constrained with statistics other than the cross bispectrum. We measure the cross bispectrum involving one halo fluctuation field and two mass overdensity fields for various halo masses and collapse redshifts. We find that the ESP is in reasonably good agreement with the numerical data, while the other alternatives we consider fail in various cases. This suggests that the scale-dependence of halo bias also is a crucial ingredient to the squeezed limit of the halo bispectrum.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗