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At least 19 records

Validation Metrics for Fixed Effects and Mixed-Effects Calibration

The modern scientific process often involves the development of a predictive computational model. To improve its accuracy, a computational model can be calibrated to a set of experimental data. A variety of validation metrics can be used to quantify this process. Some of these metrics have direct physical interpretations and a history of use, while others, especially those for probabilistic data, are more difficult to interpret. In this work, a variety of validation metrics are used to quantify the accuracy of different calibration methods. Frequentist and Bayesian perspectives are used with both fixed effects and mixed-effects statistical models. Through a quantitative comparison of the resulting distributions, the most accurate calibration method can be selected. Two examples are included which compare the results of various validation metrics for different calibration methods. It is quantitatively shown that, in the presence of significant laboratory biases, a fixed effects calibration is significantly less accurate than a mixed-effects calibration. This is because the mixed-effects statistical model better characterizes the underlying parameter distributions than the fixed effects model. The results suggest that validation metrics can be used to select the most accurate calibration model for a particular empirical model with corresponding experimental data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Line shape parameters of PH3 transitions: Theoretical studies of self-broadened widths and line mixing effects

Line mixing effects have been calculated in various parallel and perpendicular bands of self-broadened PH3 lines and compared with recent experimental data. The theoretical approach is an extension to symmetric tops with high inversion barrier of the formalism previously developed for NH3 [Q. Ma and C. Boulet, J. Chem. Phys. 144, 224303 (2016)]. The model takes into account the non-diagonality of the scattering operator within the line space as well as, in a correct way, the double degeneracy of the j, k levels when k ≠ 0. Transitions between such levels should be considered as doublets whose components may be coupled by the line mixing process. It has been shown that, at low pressure, the inversion of the experimental data will strongly depend on the splitting between the two components of a doublet. When it is significant, one can measure independently both the width of one component and the intra-doublet coupling matrix element. Otherwise, one can only measure the sum of these two elements. Comparisons with measurements show that the present formalism leads to accurate predictions of the experimental line shapes.

Remote sensing↗

Linear Mixed-Effects Models for Human-in-the-Loop Tracking Experiment Data

Linear mixed-effects models provide several benefits over more traditional statistical inference tests that are particularly useful for most human-in-the-loop tracking experiment data. However, surprisingly, mixed models are virtually not used for the analysis of tracking experiment data. This paper uses of linear mixed-effects models to analyze combined tracking data from two previous human-in-the-loop roll tracking experiments that compared control behavior metrics collected in both a research aircraft and a motion-base simulator. In the experiments, pilots' behavior under 10 different motion configurations with varying motion filter gains and break frequencies was evaluated and compared to that in the real aircraft. The linear mixed-effects model analysis on the combined dataset confirmed the main statistical outcomes of the individual experiments. The main benefits of mixed models for this type of data were demonstrated by successfully combining data from two experiments that used different experimental conditions and of which one had an additional apparatus and the other a missing participant. Finally, the mixed-model analysis was able to explicitly test for scientifically relevant statistical differences in the dependent measures between the aircraft and simulator, as well as both experiments.

manual control↗

Mixing effectiveness test of an exhaust gas mixer in a high bypass turbofan at altitude

Thermal mixing effectiveness characteristics of an eighteen lobe, scalloped and unscalloped, partial, forced mixer were measured in a high-bypass turbofan engine. Data were also obtained without the mixer installed, i.e., free mixing. Tests were conducted at four combinations of simulated flight conditions from 0.3 to 0.8 Mach number and from 6,096 meters (20,000 ft) to 13,715 m (45,000 ft) altitude, mixing chamber lengths of L/D=0.52 and 0.65 were tested. For this range of test conditions and mixer configurations, the forced mixing effectiveness varied from 59 to 68 percent. Values of mixing effectiveness and total pressure loss were calculated from temperature and pressure data obtained at the mixer inlet and exhaust nozzle exit.

Cullom, R. R.↗

Mixing effectiveness test of an exhaust gas mixer in a high bypass turbofan at altitude

Thermal mixing effectiveness characteristics of an eighteen lobe, scalloped and unscalloped, partial, forced mixer were measured in a high-bypass turbofan engine. Data were also obtained without the mixer installed, i.e. free mixing. Tests were conducted at four combinations of simulated flight conditions from 0.3 to 0.8 Mach number and from 6,096 meters (20,000 ft) to 13,715 m (45,000 ft) altitude. Mixing chamber lengths of L/D = 0.52 and 0.65 were tested. For this range of test conditions and mixer configurations the forced mixing effectiveness varied from 59 to 68 percent. Values of mixing effectiveness and total pressure loss were calculated from temperature and pressure data obtained at the mixer inlet and exhaust nozzle exit.

Cullom, R. R.↗

The Relaxation Matrix for Symmetric Tops with Inversion Symmetry: Line Mixing Effects in the V1 Band of NH3 - II

Line mixing effects have been calculated in the ν1 parallel band of self-broadened NH3. The theoretical approach is an extension of a semi-classical model to symmetric-top molecules with inversion symmetry developed in the companion paper [Q. Ma and C. Boulet, J. Chem. Phys. 144, 224303 (2016)]. This model takes into account line coupling effects and hence enables the calculation of the entire relaxation matrix. A detailed analysis of the various coupling mechanisms is carried out for Q and R inversion doublets. The model has been applied to the calculation of the shape of the Q branch and of some R manifolds for which an obvious signature of line mixing effects has been experimentally demonstrated. Comparisons with measurements show that the present formalism leads to an accurate prediction of the available experimental line shapes. Discrepancies between the experimental and theoretical sets of first order mixing parameters are discussed as well as some extensions of both theory and experiment.

Boulet, C.↗

Line coupling and line mixing effects on calculated widths of symmetric-top molecules with the k-degeneracy: A theoretical study of N 2 -, O 2 -, and air-broadened lines of CH 3 I

Calculations of the N 2 -, O 2 -, and air-broadened widths, together with their temperature dependence exponents have been made for transitions of CH 3 I in the ν 5 and ν 6 bands. The calculations are based on a semi-classical line shape formalism developed by the current authors through modifying and refining the Robert-Bonamy formalism. In recent years, we have applied this formalism for linear molecules, symmetric-top molecules with inversion symmetry, and asymmetric-top molecules. For symmetric-top molecules with the k degeneracy such as CH 3 I, the formalism has a new feature. In this case, one should consider each of the CH 3 I transitions labeled by k i or f ≠ 0 as a doublet. Then, one needs to consider the effects of the line mixing process between these two components. Furthermore, comparisons of our theoretical predictions with some data available demonstrate a very reasonable agreement. Finally, we propose new experiments at higher perturber pressures that would enable one to check the theoretically calculated relaxation matrices and to extend the analysis to the inter-doublet mixing effects.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Line Coupling and Line Mixing Effects on Calculated Widths of Symmetric-Top Molecules With the k-Degeneracy: A Theoretical Study of N 2 -, O 2 -, and Air-Broadened Lines of CH 3 I

Calculations of the N 2 -, O 2 - and air-broadened widths, together with their temperature dependence exponents have been made for transitions of CH 3 I in the v 5 and v 6 bands. The calculations are based on a semi-classical line shape formalism developed by the current authors through modifying and refining the Robert-Bonamy formalism. In recent years, we have applied this formalism for linear molecules, symmetric-top molecules with inversion symmetry, and asymmetric-top molecules. For symmetric-top molecules with the k degeneracy such as CH 3 I, the formalism has a new feature. In this case, one should consider each of the CH 3 I transitions labeled by k i or ƒ ≠ 0 as a doublet. Then, one needs to consider the effects of the line mixing process between these two components. Comparisons of our theoretical predictions with some data available demonstrate a very reasonable agreement. Finally we propose new experiments at higher perturber pressures that would enable one to check the theoretically calculated relaxation matrices and to extend the analysis to the interdoublet mixing effects.

Line coupling↗

The J and K Dependencies of the Line Coupling and Line Mixing Effects: Theoretical Studies of the Relaxation Matrices of N 2 -Broadened Ch 3 D

Line coupling and line mixing effects in parallel and perpendicular bands of CH 3 D perturbed by N 2 have been studied. The work focuses on exhibiting the j and k dependencies of these two processes. The calculations were based on a previously reported anisotropic intermolecular potential including both the long-range multipole, induction, and dispersion forces and a short-range atom-atom model. It is shown that components with L 1 = 3 of the atom-atom model are dominant contributions to the diffusion operator. As a consequence, in comparison with other molecular systems such as the CH 3 Cl-N 2 and CH 3 I-N 2 , theoretically predicted line coupling and line mixing effects exhibit completely new j and k dependencies. In general, the theoretically calculated halfwidths and intra-doublets’ off-diagonal elements of the relaxation matrix are in reasonable agreement with measurements.

Methane-d↗

The j and k dependencies of the line coupling and line mixing effects: Theoretical studies of the relaxation matrices of N 2 -broadened CH 3 D

Line coupling and line mixing effects in parallel and perpendicular bands of CH 3 D perturbed by N 2 have been studied. The work focuses on exhibiting the j and k dependencies of these two processes. The calculations were based on a previously reported anisotropic intermolecular potential including both the long-range multipole, induction, and dispersion forces and a short-range atom-atom model. Throughout this work, it is shown that components with L 1 = 3 of the atom-atom model are dominant contributions to the diffusion operator. As a consequence, in comparison with other molecular systems such as the CH 3 Cl-N 2 and CH 3 I-N 2 , theoretically predicted line coupling and line mixing effects exhibit completely new j and k dependencies. In general, the theoretically calculated halfwidths and intra-doublets’ off-diagonal elements of the relaxation matrix are in reasonable agreement with measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Revised (Mixed-Effects) Estimation for Forest Burning Emissions of Gases and Smoke, Fire/Emission Factor Typology, and Potential Remote Sensing Classification of Types for Ozone and Black-Carbon Simulation

We summarize recent progress (a) in correcting biomass burning emissions factors deduced from airborne sampling of forest fire plumes, (b) in understanding the variability in reactivity of the fresh plumes sampled in ARCTAS (2008), DC3 (2012), and SEAC4RS (2013) airborne missions, and (c) in a consequent search for remotely sensed quantities that help classify forest-fire plumes. Particle properties, chemical speciation, and smoke radiative properties are related and mutually informative, as pictures below suggest (slopes of lines of same color are similar). (a) Mixed-effects (random-effects) statistical modeling provides estimates of both emission factors and a reasonable description of carbon-burned simultaneously. Different fire plumes will have very different contributions to volatile organic carbon reactivity; this may help explain differences of free NOx(both gas- and particle-phase), and also of ozone production, that have been noted for forest-fire plumes in California. Our evaluations check or correct emission factors based on sequential measurements (e.g., the Normalized Ratio Enhancement and similar methods). We stress the dangers of methods relying on emission-ratios to CO. (b) This work confirms and extends many reports of great situational variability in emissions factors. VOCs vary in OH reactivity and NOx-binding. Reasons for variability are not only fuel composition, fuel condition, etc., but are confused somewhat by rapid transformation and mixing of emissions. We use "unmixing" (distinct from mixed-effects) statistics and compare briefly to approaches like neural nets. We focus on one particularly intense fire the notorious Yosemite Rim Fire of 2013. In some samples, NOx activity was not so suppressed by binding into nitrates as in other fires. While our fire-typing is evolving and subject to debate, the carbon-burned delta(CO2+CO) estimates that arise from mixed effects models, free of confusion by background-CO2 variation, should provide a solid base for discussion. (c) We report progress using promising links we find between emissions-related "fire types" and promising features deducible from remote observations of plumes, e.g., single scatter albedo, Angstrom exponent of scattering, Angstrom exponent of absorption, (CO column density)/(aerosol optical depth).

Remote sensing↗

Line mixing effects in solar occultation spectra of the lower stratosphere - Measurements and comparisons with calculations for the 1932/cm CO2 Q branch

Line mixing effects have been observed in a CO2 Q branch recorded in 0.01/cm-resolution IR solar occultation spectra of the lower stratosphere. The spectral data were obtained by the Atmospheric Trace Molecule Spectroscopy Fourier transform spectrometer during the Spacelab 3 mission in the spring of 1985. Analysis of the 1932.47/cm Q branch of (C-12)(O-16)2 shows absorption coefficients below the band origin about 0.62 times those calculated using a standard Voigt line-shape function. Calculations of line mixing using the Lorentz halfwidths of the lines and a simple energy-gap scaling law to parameterize rotational energy transfer reproduce the observed absorption coefficients to about 10 percent. The present results provide the first quantitative information on air-broadened line mixing effects in a Q branch at low temperatures (about 210 K) and show that these effects are significant even at the low pressures of the lower stratosphere (about 100 mbar).

Rinsland, Curtis P.↗

HighDimMixedModels.jl: Robust high-dimensional mixed-effects models across omics data

High-dimensional mixed-effects models are an increasingly important form of regression in which the number of covariates rivals or exceeds the number of samples, which are collected in groups or clusters. The penalized likelihood approach to fitting these models relies on a coordinate descent algorithm that lacks guarantees of convergence to a global optimum. Here, we empirically study the behavior of this algorithm on simulated and real examples of three types of data that are common in modern biology: transcriptome, genome-wide association, and microbiome data. Our simulations provide new insights into the algorithm’s behavior in these settings, and, comparing the performance of two popular penalties, we demonstrate that the smoothly clipped absolute deviation (SCAD) penalty consistently outperforms the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) penalty in terms of both variable selection and estimation accuracy across omics data. To empower researchers in biology and other fields to fit models with the SCAD penalty, we implement the algorithm in a Julia package, HighDimMixedModels.jl .

Gorstein, Evan↗

Theoretical Study of CH3Cl-N2 Line Shapes in the ν1 Band. Line Mixing Effects in QR Doublets and QQk Sub-Branches

Line coupling and line mixing effects of CH3Cl lines in the ν1 band perturbed by N2 have been investigated. We have taken into account the non-diagonality of the exp(−S2) operator within specified line spaces as well as the k-degeneracy of the transitions (due to the double degeneracy of the j,k levels with k ≠ 0). These transitions should be considered as doublets coupled by the line mixing process. A new problem appears in the calculation when the atom-atom potential model is introduced. In order to overcome this difficulty, a pragmatic approach is proposed. Comparisons of theoretically calculated matrix elements of W with measurements of QR(j,k) doublets as well as some QQk sub-branches, which are strongly affected by line mixing, have been made. The results show that the formalism improved in this way leads to rather accurate predictions.

Methyl chloride↗

Theoretical study of CH 3 Cl-N 2 line shapes in the ν 1 band. Line mixing effects in QR doublets and QQ k sub-branches

Line coupling and line mixing effects of CH 3 Cl lines in the ν 1 band perturbed by N 2 have been investigated. We have taken into account the non-diagonality of the exp(–S 2 ) operator within specified line spaces as well as the k-degeneracy of the transitions (due to the double degeneracy of the j,k levels with k ≠ 0). These transitions should be considered as doublets coupled by the line mixing process. A new problem appears in the calculation when the atom-atom potential model is introduced. In order to overcome this difficulty, a pragmatic approach is proposed. Comparisons of theoretically calculated matrix elements of W with measurements of QR(j,k) doublets as well as some QQ k sub-branches, which are strongly affected by line mixing, have been made. Finally, the results show that the formalism improved in this way leads to rather accurate predictions.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Nonideal mixing effects in warm dense matter studied with first-principles computer simulations

Here, we study nonideal mixing effects in the regime of warm dense matter (WDM) by computing the shock Hugoniot curves of BN, MgO, and MgSiO 3 . First, we derive these curves from the equations of state (EOS) of the fully interacting systems, which were obtained using a combination of path integral Monte Carlo calculations at high temperature and density functional molecular dynamics simulations at lower temperatures. We then use the ideal mixing approximation at constant pressure and temperature to rederive these Hugoniot curves from the EOS tables of the individual elements. We find that the linear mixing approximation works remarkably well at temperatures above ~2 × 10 5 K, where the shock compression ratio exceeds ~3.2. The shape of the Hugoniot curve of each compound is well reproduced. Regions of increased shock compression, which emerge because of the ionization of L and K shell electrons, are well represented, and the maximum compression ratio of the Hugoniot curves is reproduced with high precision. Some deviations are seen near the onset of the L shell ionization regime, where ionization equilibrium in the fully interacting system cannot be well reproduced by the ideal mixing approximation. This approximation also breaks down at lower temperatures, where chemical bonds play an increasingly important role. However, the results imply that the equilibrium properties of binary and ternary mixtures in the regime of WDM can be derived from the EOS tables of the individual elements. This significantly simplifies the characterization of binary and ternary mixtures in the WDM and plasma phases, which otherwise requires large numbers of more computationally expensive first-principles computer simulations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluation of partial volume correction and analysis of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau PET imaging in Alzheimer's disease using linear mixed-effects models

Purpose: We evaluated the impact of partial volume correction (PVC) methods on the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 tau positron-emission tomography (PET) in Alzheimer's disease and the suitability of describing the tau pathology burden temporal trajectories using linear mixed-effects models (LMEM). Methods: We applied van Cittert iterative deconvolution (VC), 2-compartment, and 3-compartment, and the geometric transfer matrix plus region-based voxelwise methods to data acquired in an Alzheimer's disease natural history study over 18 months at a single imaging site. We determined the optimal PVC method by comparing the standardized uptake value ratio change (%ΔSUVR) between diagnostic and tau burden–level groups and the longitudinal repeatability derived from the LMEM. The performance of LMEM analysis for calculating %ΔSUVR was evaluated in a natural history study and in a multisite clinical trial of semorinemab in prodromal to mild Alzheimer's disease by comparing results to traditional per-visit estimates. Results: The VC, 2-compartment, and 3-compartment PVC methods had similar performance, whereas region-based voxelwise overcorrected regions with a higher tau burden. The lowest within-subject variability and acceptable group separation scores were observed without PVC. The LMEM-derived %ΔSUVR values were similar to the per-visit estimates with lower variability. Conclusion: The results indicate that the tested PVC methods do not offer a clear advantage or improvement over non-PVC images for the quantification of longitudinal [ 18 F]GTP1 PET data. LMEM offers a robust framework for the longitudinal tau PET quantification with low longitudinal test–retest variability. Clinical trial registration: NCT02640092 and NCT03289143.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗