Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “microsimulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Connected and Automated Vehicles in Co-Simulation Environment of Traffic Microsimulation and Vehicle Dynamics

Connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) have the potential to improve many aspects of the current transportation systems such as safety, mobility, and energy efficiency. In order to evaluate the benefits and impacts of a CAV, the CAV control algorithm is typically implemented on vehicles simulated in a traffic microsimulation environment. However, traffic microsimulation usually lacks detailed vehicle and powertrain dynamics, making it challenging to fully understand how a CAV control algorithm will perform and respond on an actual vehicle. Whether the same benefits measured in the simulation will also be observed in real-world remains an open question. One potential approach to fill in this gap is to conduct a co-simulation of traffic microsimulation with detailed vehicle and powertrain dynamics models, often developed in MATLAB Simulink. However, current microsimulation tools such as VISSIM and SUMO do not have a ready-to-use interface for co-simulation with vehicle dynamics and Simulink. Also, even if such an interface exists, it will be tool-specific, making it challenging to shift from one tool to another or test CAV controls in different tools. There are needs for tool-agnostic co-simulation as different microsimulation tools have their pros and cons, and researchers often need to use different tools based on the purposes of the simulation, project needs, and applications. In this work, Flexible Interface for X-in-the-loop Simulation (FIXS) is developed that can support the co-simulation of microsimulation, CAV control algorithm, and vehicle dynamics model in Simulink. Enabled by the FIXS, the benefit and performance of a CAV control algorithm can be better understood with the consideration of vehicle responses and dynamics. The connection to VISSIM and SUMO is handled internally by the interface, and users can easily switch tools by changing a configuration file. The co-simulation capability is demonstrated for a VISSIM eco-approach and departure CAV scenario and a SUMO cooperative merging scenario for both a passenger CAV and a class 8 heavy-duty connected and automated trucks.

Shao, Yunli↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SimUAM: A Comprehensive Microsimulation Toolchain to Evaluate the Impact of Urban Air Mobility in Metropolitan Areas

Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network? and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, the authors develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) Microsimulation Analysis for Network Traffic Assignment (MANTA): A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: Agranular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian simulator, (3) Flexible Engine for Fast-time Evaluation of Flight Environments (Fe3): A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. Once the ground-air interface is modeled, the authors find that the market for UAM decreases across all network designs relative to models with static assumptions about transfer times. However, significant improvements can be made to balance the demand and optimize the networks for transfer time, likely increasing the number of benefited trips. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool.

urban air mobility↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sequentially calibrating a Bayesian microsimulation model to incorporate new information and assumptions

Background: Microsimulation models are mathematical models that simulate event histories for individual members of a population. They are useful for policy decisions because they simulate a large number of individuals from an idealized population, with features that change over time, and the resulting event histories can be summarized to describe key population-level outcomes. Model calibration is the process of incorporating evidence into the model. Calibrated models can be used to make predictions about population trends in disease outcomes and effectiveness of interventions, but calibration can be challenging and computationally expensive. Methods: This paper develops a technique for sequentially updating models to take full advantage of earlier calibration results, to ultimately speed up the calibration process. A Bayesian approach to calibration is used because it combines different sources of evidence and enables uncertainty quantification which is appealing for decision-making. We develop this method in order to re-calibrate a microsimulation model for the natural history of colorectal cancer to include new targets that better inform the time from initiation of preclinical cancer to presentation with clinical cancer (sojourn time), because model exploration and validation revealed that more information was needed on sojourn time, and that the predicted percentage of patients with cancers detected via colonoscopy screening was too low. Results: The sequential approach to calibration was more efficient than recalibrating the model from scratch. Incorporating new information on the percentage of patients with cancers detected upon screening changed the estimated sojourn time parameters significantly, increasing the estimated mean sojourn time for cancers in the colon and rectum, providing results with more validity. Conclusions: A sequential approach to recalibration can be used to efficiently recalibrate a microsimulation model when new information becomes available that requires the original targets to be supplemented with additional targets.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

SimUAM: A Comprehensive Microsimulation Toolchain to Evaluate the Impact of Urban Air Mobility in Metropolitan Areas

Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network?, and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, we develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) MANTA: A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: A granular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian, (3) 3: A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their exact movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool. As a result, stakeholders in UAM can understand the impacts of critical infrastructure, and subsequently define policies, requirements, and investments needed to support UAM as a viable transportation mode.

Urban air mobility↗
DOE OSTI2020

Formulation and solution approach for calibrating activity-based travel demand model-system via microsimulation

This study addresses the problem of calibrating utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based travel demand model-systems. After estimation, it is common practice to use aggregate measurements to calibrate the estimated model-system’s parameters prior to their application in transportation planning, policy making, and operations. However, calibration of activity-based model-systems has received much less attention. Existing calibration approaches are myopic heuristics in the sense that they do not consider the fundamental inter-dependencies among choice-models and do not have a systematic way to adjust model parameters. Also, other purely simulation-based approaches do not perform well in large-scale applications. In this study, we focus on utility-maximizing nested logit activity-based model-systems and calibrating aggregate statistics such as activity shares, mode shares, time-dependent & mode-specific OD flows, and time-dependent & mode-specific sensor counts. We formulate the calibration problem as a simulation-based optimization problem and propose a stochastic gradient-based solution procedure to solve it. The solution procedure relies on microsimulation to calculate expectations of the aggregate statistics of interest to the calibration problem. Additionally, we derive approximate analytical expressions for the gradient of the objective function —that are evaluated through microsimulation on mini-batches of the population. The proposed solution procedure is sensitive to the fundamental structure of the activity-based model-system and is non-myopic in considering the dependencies across its model components. The formulated optimization problem is non-convex, highly nonlinear, and potentially has multiple-minima. Lastly, we show —through a real-world application— that the proposed solution procedure outperforms other state-of-the-art purely simulation-based optimization approaches in terms of computational efficiency, stability, and convergence. We also compare various gradient-based solution algorithms to determine the best algorithm to update the parameters. This work has the potential to facilitate wider and easier application of activity-based model-systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗
DOE OSTI2020

Microsimulation of Energy and Flow Effects from Optimal Automated Driving in Mixed Traffic

In this paper we study the energy and traffic impact of a proposed Anticipative Cruise Controller in a PTV VISSIM microsimulation environment. We dissect our controller into two parts: 1. the unconnected mode, active when following a human-driven vehicle, and 2. the connected mode, active when following another automated vehicle equipped with connectivity. Probabilistic constraints balance safety considerations with inter-vehicle compactness, and vehicle constraints for acceleration capabilities are expressed through the use of powertrain maps. Emergent highway traffic scenarios are then modeled using time headway distributions from empirical traffic data. To study the impact of automation over a range of demands of free-flow to stop-and-go, we vary vehicle flux from low to high and vary automated vehicle penetration from low to high. When examining all-human driving scenarios, network capacity failed to meet demand in high-volume scenarios, such as rush-hour traffic. We further find that with connected automated vehicles introduced, network capacity was improved to support the high-volume scenarios. Finally, we examine energy efficiencies of the fleet for conventional, electric, and hybrid vehicles. We find that automated vehicles perform at a 10%-20% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering conventional powertrains, and find that automated vehicles perform at a 3%-9% higher energy efficiency over human drivers when considering electric and hybrid powertrains. Due to secondary effects of smoothing traffic flow and reducing unnecessary braking, energy benefits also apply to human-driven vehicles that interact with automated ones. Such simulated humans were found to drive up to 10% more energy-efficiently than they did in the baseline all-human scenario.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

UrbanPop: A spatial microsimulation framework for exploring demographic influences on human dynamics

Ensuring the social equity of planning measures in social systems requires an understanding of human dynamics, particularly how individual relationships, activities, and interactions intersect with individual needs. Spatial microsimulation models (SMSMs) support planning for human security goals by representing human dynamics through realistic, georeferenced synthetic populations, that a) provide a complete representation of social systems while b) also protecting individual privacy. In this paper, we present UrbanPop, an open and reproducible SMSM framework for analysis of human dynamics with high spatial, temporal, and demographic resolution. UrbanPop creates synthetic populations of demographically detailed worker and student agents, positioning them first at probable nighttime locations (home), then moving them to probable daytime locations (work/school). Summary aggregations of these populations match the granular detail available at the census block group level in the American Community Survey Summary File (SF), providing realistic approximations of the actual population. UrbanPop users can select particular demographic traits important in their application, resulting in a highly tailored agent population. We first lay out UrbanPop's baseline methodology, including population synthesis, activity modeling, and diagnostics, then demonstrate these capabilities by developing case studies of shifting population distributions and high-risk populations in Knox County, TN during the global COVID-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Characterization and Valuation of the Uncertainty of Calibrated Parameters in Microsimulation Decision Models

We evaluated the implications of different approaches to characterize the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of microsimulation decision models (DMs) and quantified the value of such uncertainty in decision making. We calibrated the natural history model of CRC to simulated epidemiological data with different degrees of uncertainty and obtained the joint posterior distribution of the parameters using a Bayesian approach. We conducted a probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) on all the model parameters with different characterizations of the uncertainty of the calibrated parameters. We estimated the value of uncertainty of the various characterizations with a value of information analysis. We conducted all analyses using high-performance computing resources running the Extreme-scale Model Exploration with Swift (EMEWS) framework. The posterior distribution had a high correlation among some parameters. The parameters of the Weibull hazard function for the age of onset of adenomas had the highest posterior correlation of -0.958. When comparing full posterior distributions and the maximum-a-posteriori estimate of the calibrated parameters, there is little difference in the spread of the distribution of the CEA outcomes with a similar expected value of perfect information (EVPI) of $\$$653 and $\$$685, respectively, at a willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $\$$66,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Ignoring correlation on the calibrated parameters’ posterior distribution produced the broadest distribution of CEA outcomes and the highest EVPI of $\$$809 at the same WTP threshold. Different characterizations of the uncertainty of calibrated parameters affect the expected value of eliminating parametric uncertainty on the CEA. Ignoring inherent correlation among calibrated parameters on a PSA overestimates the value of uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households, and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed information pertaining to socioeconomic and demographic characteristics of individuals. Various synthetic population generators (SPGs) have been proposed to address this need. However, most of the SPGs currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature, and do not account for the interrelationships among household's or individual's life progression. This is a major shortcoming of SPGs as literature has shown that transportation decisions are impacted by lifecycle events that unfold over a span of time. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this shortcoming, they: i) are developed using cross-sectional data, ii) do not capture the full spectrum of lifecycle events and their interdependency. Overcoming these drawbacks, this paper proposes a Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) which captures the 'continuum of life' by accounting for a range of household-, and individual-level lifecycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, which is one of the world's longest running longitudinal surveys. DEMOS sub-models consider key lifecycle events which are influenced by a host of demographic variables. The whole framework is applied to evolve the population of San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results indicate that the household and individual evolution are tightly connected, and that the structural framework (i.e., model sequencing) is a key element in capturing the population trend accurately.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY PLANNING, POLIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploring Microsimulation Process for Energy Impact Evaluation of Connected and Automated Vehicles

In this paper, the authors present a microsimulation-based methodological approach for evaluating the energy impact of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs). They use an open-source micro-simulator, SUMO, and provide a way to set up a simulation environment that emulates real-world traffic dynamics. They also employ the Intelligent Driver Model to represent human drivers and calibrate its driving behavior using real-world traffic data and driving statistics. The authors conduct extensive simulation studies considering different penetration rates of CAVs, different car-following models, and varying car-following model parameters. Using the state-of-the-art Future Automotive System Technology Simulator (FASTSim), they estimate the fuel economy of each vehicle and analyze the energy impact of the given CAV implementation. Finally, the authors analyze the possible factors affecting the simulation results, and also discuss limitations and future work.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Automating Traffic Microsimulation from SYNCHRO UTDF to SUMO

Modern transportation research relies on seamlessly integrating traffic signal data with robust network representation and simulation tools. This study presents utdf2gmns, an open-source Python tool that automates conversion of the Universal Traffic Data Format, including network representation, signalized intersections, and turning volumes into the General Modeling Network Specification (GMNS) Standard. The resulting GMNS-compliant network can be converted for microsimulation in SUMO. By automatically extracting intersection control parameters and aligning them with GMNS conventions, utdf2gmns minimizes manual preprocessing and data loss. utdf2gmns also integrates with the Sigma-X engine to extract and visualize key traffic control metrics, such as phasing diagrams, turning volumes, volume-tocapacity ratios, and control delays. This streamlined workflow enables efficient scenario testing, accurate model building, and consistent data management. Validated through case studies, utdf2gmns reliably models complex urban corridors, promoting reproducibility and standardization. Documentation is available on GitHub and PyPI, supporting easy integration and community engagement.

Luo, Roy [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000312909983)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spatial Microsimulation and Activity Allocation in Python: An Update on the Likeness Toolkit

Understanding human security and social equity issues within human systems requires large-scale models of population dynamics that simulate high-fidelity representations of individuals and access to essential activities (work/school, social, errands, health). Likeness is a Python toolkit that provides these capabilities for Oak Ridge National Laboratory's (ORNL) UrbanPop spatial microsimulation project. In step with the initial development phase for Likeness (2021 - 2022), we built out several foundational examples of work/school and health service access. In this paper, we describe expansion and scaling of Likeness capabilities to metropolitan areas in the United States. We then provide an integrated demonstration of our methods based on a case study of Leon County, FL and perform validation exercises on 1) neighborhood demographic composition and 2) visits by demographic cohorts (gender/age) obtained from point of interest (POI) footfall data for essential services (grocery stores). Taking into account lessons learned from our case study, we scope improvements to our model as well as provide a roadmap of the anticipated Likeness development cycle into 2023 - 2024.

Tuccillo, Joe↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the impacts of Variable Message Signs on Airport Curbside Performance Using Microsimulation

Curbs play a vital role in facilitating vehicle access and egress for individuals at airports. Inefficiently allocating this resource hinders airport accessibility and productivity, resulting in congestion, longer travel times, and increased pollution. As airport demand fluctuates throughout the day and grows over time, airports face intensified curbside pressure. Yet, curb management research is significantly less robust at airports than in urban areas. Given the unbalanced nature of airport demand—riders tend to arrive simultaneously at specific entrances at certain hours—Variable Message Sign (VMS) arises as a cost-effective technology to divert vehicles from congested to underutilized curbs. Still, VMS implementation faces a significant challenge. Historically, airports have managed VMS heuristically and by intuition rather than an evidence-based approach. This research investigates the impacts of implementing VMS on curb performance at airports. By considering different driver compliance rates (DCR), we aim to determine when the sign should be turned on and off to diverge traffic to avoid undesired externalities while enhancing curb performance. Using a validated agent-based microsimulation model, VISSIM, we analyzed the Seattle-Tacoma (SeaTac) Airport as a case study. We modeled sixteen VMS management scenarios and a baseline where the message sign is not displayed, diverging vehicles between the departures and arrivals access levels at four different moments (early morning, morning, afternoon, and late night). We quantified the effects of VMS using seven metrics, including curb productivity index (CPI), curb accessibility (CA), queue length, queue duration, delay, vehicle counts, and emissions. The results of each scenario were compared against the baseline using absolute and relative changes and Repeated Measures ANOVA. Overall, VMS improved curb performance and traffic conditions at the airport, reducing emissions by 14.8% to 8.9%. Moreover, significant reductions in queue length (1,150 ft to 100 ft) and duration (15 to 144 minutes) were observed in the sending link under all VMS policies. However, impacts on the receiving link varied based on congestion, with significant increases in queue duration (9.8 to 24 min) when congested but no substantial changes in free flow. Notably, diverging vehicles to congested links resulted in non-significant results, and activating late and deactivating late VMS affected curb productivity (-5.8% to -61.4%), curb accessibility (-16.5% to -25.8%), cumulative counts (-33.4% to -59.4%), and vehicle delay (95.98% to 594.3%). Activating VMS before congestion begins in the sending link and deactivating before a queue forms in the receiving link yield the most significant improvements: 8.1% to 10.1% in CPI, 9.4% to9.6% in CA, -29.3% to -77.9% in total delay, -11.6% to -13.9% in total emissions, and 101% to 103% in cumulative counts. As the analysis was made with a wide range of time periods, access levels, driver compliance rates, and scenarios, we believe our findings can provide valuable insights into how airports should manage VMS. Our work introduces a novel approach to the scientific airport literature, as some of our metrics were previously unexplored. Additionally, we propose a methodology that other airports can adopt to maximize their curb performance.

Gutierrez, Jorge D.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data Quality Assessment Process for Real-Time Data-Driven Traffic Microsimulation of Smart Corridor

Smart corridor digital twins are often created for the development and evaluation of emerging intelligent transportation systems and Connected and Autonomous Vehicle (CAV) technologies. However, limited guidance exists for data quality assessment for digital twin development. To address this, this paper discusses the data quality assessment utilized to develop data-driven real-time microscopic simulation models, i.e., digital twins, for two separate smart corridors: the North Avenue Smart Corridor in Atlanta, GA, and the Martin Luther King Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee. This paper provides a summary of the author’s investigations of data requirements and data characteristics for the given smart corridor digital twin development efforts. With a focus on data, this summary includes a description of the data investigation process, key data issues observed, and strategies to address observed issues. Discussion is provided to help expand the lessons from these studies to other digital twin development efforts.

Saroj, Abhilasha [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000191178063)↗