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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Substrate availability and not thermal acclimation controls microbial temperature sensitivity response to long-term warming

Microbes are responsible for cycling carbon (C) through soils, and predicted changes in soil C stocks under climate change are highly sensitive to shifts in the mechanisms assumed to control the microbial physiological response to warming. Two mechanisms have been suggested to explain the long-term warming impact on microbial physiology: microbial thermal acclimation and changes in the quantity and quality of substrates available for microbial metabolism. Yet studies disentangling these two mechanisms are lacking. To resolve the drivers of changes in microbial physiology in response to long-term warming, we sampled soils from 13- and 28-year-old soil warming experiments in different seasons. We performed short-term laboratory incubations across a range of temperatures to measure the relationships between temperature sensitivity of physiology (growth, respiration, carbon use efficiency, and extracellular enzyme activity) and the chemical composition of soil organic matter. We observed apparent thermal acclimation of microbial respiration, but only in summer, when warming had exacerbated the seasonally-induced, already small dissolved organic matter pools. Irrespective of warming, greater quantity and quality of soil carbon increased the extracellular enzymatic pool and its temperature sensitivity. We propose that fresh litter input into the system seasonally cancels apparent thermal acclimation of C-cycling processes to decadal warming. Our findings reveal that long-term warming has indirectly affected microbial physiology via reduced C availability in this system, implying that earth system models including these negative feedbacks may be best suited to describe long-term warming effects on these soils.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microbial sensitivity to temperature and sulfate deposition modulates greenhouse gas emissions from peat soils

Abstract Peatlands are among the largest natural sources of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ) worldwide. Microbial processes play a key role in regulating CH 4 emissions from peatland ecosystems, yet the complex interplay between soil substrates and microbial communities in controlling CH 4 emissions as a function of global change remains unclear. Herein, we performed an integrated analysis of multi‐omics data sets to provide a comprehensive understanding of the molecular processes driving changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in peatland ecosystems with increasing temperature and sulfate deposition in a laboratory incubation study. We sought to first investigate how increasing temperatures (4, 21, and 35°C) impact soil microbiome–metabolome interactions; then explore the competition between methanogens and sulfate‐reducing bacteria (SRBs) with increasing sulfate concentrations at the optimum temperature for methanogenesis. Our results revealed that peat soil organic matter degradation, mediated by biotic and potentially abiotic processes, is the main driver of the increase in CO 2 production with temperature. In contrast, the decrease in CH 4 production at 35°C was linked to the absence of syntrophic communities and the potential inhibitory effect of phenols on methanogens. Elevated temperatures further induced the microbial communities to develop high growth yield and stress tolerator trait‐based strategies leading to a shift in their composition and function. On the other hand, SRBs were able to outcompete methanogens in the presence of non‐limiting sulfate concentrations at 21°C, thereby reducing CH 4 emissions. At higher sulfate concentrations, however, the prevalence of communities capable of producing sufficient low‐molecular‐weight carbon substrates for the coexistence of SRBs and methanogens was translated into elevated CH 4 emissions. The use of omics in this study enhanced our understanding of the structure and interactions among microbes with the abiotic components of the system that can be useful for mitigating GHG emissions from peatland ecosystems in the face of global change.

AminiTabrizi, Roya↗
DOE OSTI2024

Warming effects on grassland soil microbial communities are amplified in cool months

Abstract Global warming modulates soil respiration (RS) via microbial decomposition, which is seasonally dependent. Yet, the magnitude and direction of this modulation remain unclear, partly owing to the lack of knowledge on how microorganisms respond to seasonal changes. Here, we investigated the temporal dynamics of soil microbial communities over 12 consecutive months under experimental warming in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem. The interplay between warming and time altered (P < 0.05) the taxonomic and functional compositions of microbial communities. During the cool months (January to February and October to December), warming induced a soil microbiome with a higher genomic potential for carbon decomposition, community-level ribosomal RNA operon (rrn) copy numbers, and microbial metabolic quotients, suggesting that warming stimulated fast-growing microorganisms that enhanced carbon decomposition. Modeling analyses further showed that warming reduced the temperature sensitivity of microbial carbon use efficiency (CUE) by 28.7% when monthly average temperature was low, resulting in lower microbial CUE and higher heterotrophic respiration (Rh) potentials. Structural equation modeling showed that warming modulated both Rh and RS directly by altering soil temperature and indirectly by influencing microbial community traits, soil moisture, nitrate content, soil pH, and gross primary productivity. The modulation of Rh by warming was more pronounced in cooler months compared to warmer ones. Together, our findings reveal distinct warming-induced effects on microbial functional traits in cool months, challenging the norm of soil sampling only in the peak growing season, and advancing our mechanistic understanding of the seasonal pattern of RS and Rh sensitivity to warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Q 10 of in situ microbial soil respiration varies with mean annual temperature, precipitation, pH, and plant cover: a meta-analysis and spatial prediction of Q 10

The temperature sensitivity of soil microbial respiration, commonly quantified using the Q 10 coefficient, is a key parameter in carbon cycle models. Uncovering how environmental factors affect in situ Q 10 values can therefore provide critical insight into potential shifts in global carbon stocks under climate change. We collected data from previously published field experiments that measured soil microbial respiration across a range of temperatures. We hypothesized that the Q 10 coefficient of in situ soil microbial respiration would vary based on environmental factors including mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP), plant cover type, pH, soil C:N, and latitude. Linear regression revealed that Q 10 correlates negatively with MAT and MAP and positively with pH and absolute latitude. Additionally, average Q 10 varied significantly across different plant cover types; it was highest in mountain grasslands and lowest in tropical moist forests. Variation in microbial Q 10 across environmental factors may arise from underlying mechanisms such as enzyme kinetics, substrate availability and complexity, and microbial adaptation. To capture patterns in Q 10 more comprehensively, we developed a multiple linear regression model of Q 10 based on the most individually significant environmental drivers and applied it to public datasets to generate a global map of predicted Q 10 . Q 10 was higher in high-latitude and high-altitude regions, where large permafrost carbon stores are vulnerable to thawing and decomposition. We also compared fits between the Q 10 equation and a model produced from macromolecular rate theory (MMRT). We found that the MMRT model had the superior fit and may be better suited to model temperature sensitivity of complex biological reactions. Overall, our results emphasize that relationships between microbial Q 10 and environmental variables should be accounted for in climate models. Incorporating these variations in the Q 10 parameter, rather than using a fixed value, will help predict whether CO 2 emissions will be buffered or exacerbated by soil microbial respiration under climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Microbial Interactions Related to N 2 O Emissions and Temperature Sensitivity from Rice Paddy Fields

The soil microbiome is a driver of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) emissions in terrestrial ecosystems. Identifying the core microbiome of N 2 O emissions and its temperature sensitivity from trillions of soil microorganisms is a great challenge and is essential to improving the predictability of soil-climate feedback related to increasing temperature. Here, the integrated soil microbiome covering archaeal, bacterial, fungal, algal, and microfaunal communities was studied to disengage the potential linkage with its N 2 O emissions and its temperature sensitivity in paddy fields by hunting for core species pairs. The results showed that between-group interactions of core bacterial and archaeal members and the within-group interactions of core bacterial members jointly contributed to the N 2 O emissions and its temperature sensitivity. The contribution of between-group interactions (32 to 33%) was greater than that of within groups (10 to 18%). These results suggested that N 2 O emissions and their fluctuations related to climate warming are affected by the within- and between-group interactions of the soil microbiome. Our results help advance the knowledge on the importance of microbial keystone species and network associations in controlling N 2 O production and their responses to increasing temperature.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Minerals limit the deep soil respiration response to warming in a tropical Andisol

Tropical regions hold one third of the world’s soil organic carbon, but few experiments have warmed tropical soils in situ. The vulnerability of these soils to climate change-induced losses is uncertain with many hypothesizing these soils would be less sensitive to climate change because already-high temperatures in tropical systems might limit microbial sensitivity or due to increased mineral protection of organic carbon in highly weathered tropical soils. Here we present the results of a deep soil (0–100 cm) warming experiment in a tropical Andisol. Andisols can store large, persistent pools of soil carbon that are protected from decomposition by poorly and non-crystalline minerals (PNCM). In 20 cm depth intervals, we measured key soil properties including carbon, nitrogen, pH, PNCM, bacterial and fungal richness along with temperature, moisture, and CO 2 production. Over a year of soil warming, CO 2 production significantly increased by 50–300% per degree of warming, but only in the top 40 cm of the soil profile in contrast to the results of other deep soil warming experiments. Multimodal analysis supported our hypothesis that high concentrations of PNCM was the primary driver of the lack of CO 2 response, followed by high relative soil moisture and low bacterial richness, which may be a proxy for organic carbon availability. The lack of elevated CO 2 production in response to warming suggests a limited positive feedback to climate change in Andisols driven by their strong mineral protection of organic matter. Therefore, Andisols should be considered high priority restoration or protection areas when considering the management of soil carbon stocks as part of climate action.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A tale of two extremes: Temperature sensitivity of carbon loss from cool and hot soils

Soils represent the largest terrestrial carbon (C) pool, and the flux of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) from soils to the atmosphere is ~ 6-10 times more than anthropogenic emissions. Understanding responses of soil CO 2 emissions to warming is crucial for evaluating feedback to ongoing environmental changes. The relationship between microbial respiration and temperature is typically modeled using a Q 10 function. Generally, observations of the apparent Q 10 of soil respiration are higher for cold vs. warm ecosystems, reflecting expected biophysical controls of Arrhenius kinetics. However, results from two field warming experiments in the tropics contradict this expectation, both observing extraordinarily high soil respiration responses to in situ warming. Our overall objective for the proposed work is to reduce uncertainty in temperature sensitivity of soil C loss by systematically synthesizing underlying mechanisms related to soil C turnover and stabilization. We are evaluating the temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in ecosystems across temperature extremes (e.g., arctic/boreal and tropical systems) by integrating data collected from field warming experiments with machine learning and biogeochemical models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Temperature and Water Levels Collectively Regulate Methane Emissions From Subtropical Freshwater Wetlands

Abstract Wetlands are the largest and most climate‐sensitive natural sources of methane. Accurately estimating wetland methane emissions involves reconciling inversion (“top‐down”) and process‐based (“bottom‐up”) models within the global methane budget. However, estimates from these two model types are inherently interdependent and often reveal substantial discrepancies. To enhance the reliability of both approaches, we need a comprehensive understanding of wetland methane emissions and an independent high‐resolution long‐term flux data set. Here, we employed a data‐driven random forest approach to identify key variables influencing methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the Southeastern United States. The model‐estimated monthly mean methane fluxes fit well with measured methane fluxes ( R 2 = 0.67) at four representative FLUXNET‐CH4 wetland sites across the region. Variable importance analysis highlighted the sensitivity of subtropical freshwater wetland methane emissions to variations in both temperature and water levels. High temperatures facilitate methanogenesis by enhancing microbial activities, while elevated water levels maintain anaerobic conditions necessary for methane production. Notably, the response of methane emissions to water level fluctuations is contingent on temperature conditions, and vice versa. Moreover, we constructed the first high‐spatial‐resolution (∼1 km × 1 km) and long‐term (1982–2010) gridded regional wetland methane flux product for the Southeastern United States, estimating annual methane emissions from subtropical freshwater wetlands in the region at 4.93 ± 0.11 Tg CH 4 yr −1 for 1982–2010. This new benchmark product holds promise for validating and parameterizing uncertain wetland methane emission processes in bottom‐up models and provides improved prior information for top‐down models.

He, Keqi [Earth and Climate Sciences Nicholas Scho↗
DOE OSTI2024

A synthetic co-culture for bioproduction of ammonia from methane and air

Abstract Fixed nitrogen fertilizers feed 50% of the global population, but most fixed nitrogen production occurs using energy-intensive Haber–Bosch-based chemistry combining nitrogen (N2) from air with gaseous hydrogen (H2) from methane (CH4) at high temperatures and pressures in large-scale facilities sensitive to supply chain disruptions. This work demonstrates the biological transformation of atmospheric N2 into ammonia (NH3) using CH4 as the sole carbon and energy source in a single vessel at ambient pressure and temperature, representing a biological “room-pressure and room-temperature” route to NH3 that could ultimately be developed to support compact, remote, NH3 production facilities amenable to distributed biomanufacturing. The synthetic microbial co-culture of engineered methanotroph Methylomicrobium buryatense (now Methylotuvimicrobium buryatense) and diazotroph Azotobacter vinelandii converted three CH4 molecules to l-lactate (C3H6O3) and powered gaseous N2 conversion to NH3. The design used division of labor and mutualistic metabolism strategies to address the oxygen sensitivity of nitrogenase and maximize CH4 oxidation efficiency. Media pH and salinity were central variables supporting co-cultivation. Carbon concentration heavily influenced NH3 production. Smaller-scale NH3 production near dispersed, abundant, and renewable CH4 sources could reduce disruption risks and capitalize on untapped energy resources. One-Sentence Summary Co-culture of engineered microorganisms Methylomicrobium buryatense and Azotobacter vinelandii facilitated the use of methane gas as a sole carbon feedstock to produce ammonia in an ambient temperature, atmospheric pressure, single-vessel system.

Biotechnology & Applied Microbiology↗
DOE OSTI2024

Soil incubation methods lead to large differences in inferred methane production temperature sensitivity

Abstract Quantifying the temperature sensitivity of methane (CH 4 ) production is crucial for predicting how wetland ecosystems will respond to climate warming. Typically, the temperature sensitivity (often quantified as a Q 10 value) is derived from laboratory incubation studies and then used in biogeochemical models. However, studies report wide variation in incubation-inferred Q 10 values, with a large portion of this variation remaining unexplained. Here we applied observations in a thawing permafrost peatland (Stordalen Mire) and a well-tested process-rich model ( ecosys ) to interpret incubation observations and investigate controls on inferred CH 4 production temperature sensitivity. We developed a field-storage-incubation modeling approach to mimic the full incubation sequence, including field sampling at a particular time in the growing season, refrigerated storage, and laboratory incubation, followed by model evaluation. We found that CH 4 production rates during incubation are regulated by substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups, which are affected by soil storage duration and temperature. Seasonal variation in substrate availability and active microbial biomass of key microbial functional groups led to strong time-of-sampling impacts on CH 4 production. CH 4 production is higher with less perturbation post-sampling, i.e. shorter storage duration and lower storage temperature. We found a wide range of inferred Q 10 values (1.2–3.5), which we attribute to incubation temperatures, incubation duration, storage duration, and sampling time. We also show that Q 10 values of CH 4 production are controlled by interacting biological, biochemical, and physical processes, which cause the inferred Q 10 values to differ substantially from those of the component processes. Terrestrial ecosystem models that use a constant Q 10 value to represent temperature responses may therefore predict biased soil carbon cycling under future climate scenarios.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Thermal adaptation of soil microbial growth traits in response to chronic warming

ABSTRACT Adaptation of soil microbes due to warming from climate change has been observed, but it remains unknown what microbial growth traits are adaptive to warming. We studied bacterial isolates from the Harvard Forest Long-Term Ecological Research site, where field soils have been experimentally heated to 5°C above ambient temperature with unheated controls for 30 years. We hypothesized that Alphaproteobacteria from warmed plots have (i) less temperature-sensitive growth rates; (ii) higher optimum growth temperatures; and (iii) higher maximum growth temperatures compared to isolates from control plots. We made high-throughput measurements of bacterial growth in liquid cultures over time and across temperatures from 22°C to 37°C in 2–3°C increments. We estimated growth rates by fitting Gompertz models to the growth data. Temperature sensitivity of growth rate, optimum growth temperature, and maximum growth temperature were estimated by the Ratkowsky 1983 model and a modified Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT) model. To determine evidence of adaptation, we ran phylogenetic generalized least squares tests on isolates from warmed and control soils. Our results showed evidence of adaptation of higher optimum growth temperature of bacterial isolates from heated soils. However, we observed no evidence of adaptation of temperature sensitivity of growth and maximum growth temperature. Our project begins to capture the shape of the temperature response curves, but illustrates that the relationship between growth and temperature is complex and cannot be limited to a single point in the biokinetic range. IMPORTANCE Soils are the largest terrestrial carbon sink and the foundation of our food, fiber, and fuel systems. Healthy soils are carbon sinks, storing more carbon than they release. This reduces the amount of carbon dioxide released into the atmosphere and buffers against climate change. Soil microbes drive biogeochemical cycling and contribute to soil health through organic matter breakdown, plant growth promotion, and nutrient distribution. In this study, we determined how soil microbial growth traits respond to long-term soil warming. We found that bacterial isolates from warmed plots showed evidence of adaptation of optimum growth temperature. This suggests that increased microbial biomass and growth in a warming world could result in greater carbon storage. As temperatures increase, greater microbial activity may help reduce the soil carbon feedback loop. Our results provide insight on how atmospheric carbon cycling and soil health may respond in a warming world.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The GREEN ‘omics of Nutrient Feedbacks to Soil Warming

The GREEN ‘omics of Nutrient Feedbacks in Soil project advanced the DOE Biological and Environmental Research (BER) mission by developing and applying isotope-enabled ’omics tools to understand how soil microbes regulate carbon and nutrient cycling. Guided by the Growth Rate, growth Efficiency, and stoichiometry of Essential Nutrients (GREEN ’omics) framework, the project aimed to build a predictive, systems-level understanding of microbial traits that control ecosystem biogeochemistry. In a collaboration among Northern Arizona University (lead), West Virginia University, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, we combined quantitative stable isotope probing (qSIP), Chip-SIP, NanoSIMS, and genome-resolved metagenomics across long-term experiments in Arctic, boreal, temperate, and tropical ecosystems. The project produced three key outcomes: 1) We showed that community-weighted temperature sensitivities of bacterial growth (Q10) can predict ecosystem-scale soil respiration responses across diverse soils. 2) We provided the first in situ evidence for density-dependent population dynamics in soil bacteria and demonstrated that nutrient additions intensify competition, concentrating carbon use into fewer taxa. 3) We improved and extended isotope-enabled ’omics methods by quantifying qSIP measurement error to guide experimental design and coupling SIP with genome-resolved metagenomics to reveal cross-kingdom interactions among bacteria, fungi, and viruses. Together, these results show that a small number of microbial traits and taxa exert disproportionate control over soil carbon and nutrient cycling, providing critical data and methods to improve representation of microbial processes in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Thermal responses of dissolved organic matter under global change

The diversity of intrinsic traits of different organic matter molecules makes it challenging to predict how they, and therefore the global carbon cycle, will respond to climate change. Here we develop an indicator of compositional-level environmental response for dissolved organic matter to quantify the aggregated response of individual molecules that positively and negatively associate with warming. We apply the indicator to assess the thermal response of sediment dissolved organic matter in 480 aquatic microcosms along nutrient gradients on three Eurasian mountainsides. Organic molecules consistently respond to temperature change within and across contrasting climate zones. At a compositional level, dissolved organic matter in warmer sites has a stronger thermal response and shows functional reorganization towards molecules with lower thermodynamic favorability for microbial decomposition. The thermal response is more sensitive to warming at higher nutrients, with increased sensitivity of up to 22% for each additional 1 mg L -1 of nitrogen loading. The utility of the thermal response indicator is further confirmed by laboratory experiments and reveals its positive links to greenhouse gas emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

H2 Sensing with an Optical Fiber Sensor in the Subsurface H2 Storage Conditions

The concentration of hydrogen is subject to change due to biological reactions in the underground hydrogen storage reservoirs. Thus, monitoring hydrogen concentration in the subsurface gas deposits is vital to ensure the integrity and safety of the storage facilities. In this study, the optical fiber hydrogen sensor was developed and validated in relevant subsurface storage environments. Specifically, the sensor has demonstrated successful sensing performance at high temperatures (~80 °C) and high pressures (~1,000 psi) under very humid conditions (~100% RH). In addition, the sensor was exposed to real subsurface microbial samples to monitor microbially induced changes in hydrogen concentration. The sensor has shown stable H2 sensing responses in the replicated underground hydrogen storage conditions without deterioration or loss of H2 sensitivity. The biotic subsurface sample with hydrogen gas resulted in higher transmission intensity change than the abiotic sample due to the possible hydrogen consumption with microbes.

Kim, Daejin↗
DOE OSTI2025

A minor respiratory process with major global implications: is atmospheric methane oxidation in tree stems driven by stem respiration rather than microbial methanotrophy?

Tree stem surfaces are widely recognized as sites of carbon dioxide (CO₂) efflux and oxygen (O₂) influx, reflecting the dynamics of aerobic respiration of photosynthate substrates, such as sugars, delivered via the phloem. Stems are also largely considered passive conduits for methane (CH₄) produced in anoxic soils via microbial methanogenesis, where CH₄ is thought to be transported upward through the transpiration stream and/or diffusion and emitted through stem surfaces and the canopy. However, recent observations from dynamic stem chambers suggest that stems may also act as active sinks for atmospheric CH₄. Despite these findings, the extent and drivers of stem CH₄ consumption remain poorly characterized across biomes, species, and environmental gradients, and its quantitative relationship to stem respiration has not been established. Moreover, previous studies captured only snapshot fluxes, leaving diurnal patterns of CH₄ exchange uncharacterized. Here, we address these limitations by combining real-time measurements of stem CH₄ and O₂ uptake under ambient conditions in a California cherry tree, using a dynamic stem gas exchange system with three chambers receiving a continuous flow of ambient air and automated chamber and reference air sampling every 10 min. Our results confirm that stems of upland trees can actively consume both atmospheric CH₄ and O₂, but with decreasing temperature sensitivity as daily temperatures increase. Early mornings were marked by rapid influxes of both gases, followed by declining uptake as temperatures rose further. Methane uptake was tightly coupled with O₂ influx and represented a minor (0.012% ± 0.002%) fraction of stem respiratory activity, as determined by concurrent O₂ uptake. These findings suggest that while atmospheric CH₄ oxidation is a minor respiratory process in stems, it is strongly linked with stem physiological activity. This challenges the current assumption that terrestrial CH₄ uptake is driven solely by microbial methanotrophy and raises the possibility that living stem tissues may contribute to CH₄ oxidation through an as-yet-unidentified plant-based mechanism.

Atmospheric greenhouse gases↗
DOE OSTI2026

Heterotrophic respiration by soil microbes in a changing climate

Soil microbes strongly influence the soil organic carbon (SOC) pool, which globally stores ~2,000 PgC. Specifically, the balance between microbial heterotrophic respiration (R H ), which degrades SOC, and plant–microbe interactions that stabilize SOC determines whether terrestrial ecosystems are a net source or sink of CO 2 to the atmosphere. Here, in this Review, we evaluate how climate change alters these competing processes. R H is approximately half of total soil respiration, at ~50 PgC yr −1 , with 70% occurring in topsoils. Warming accelerates microbial metabolism, with a 10 °C temperature increase estimated to raise R H by ~50%, an effect that is particularly strong in Arctic soils. Warming also reduces soil moisture, further modulating R H , which responds nonlinearly to soil moisture, being limited by saturation and desiccation and meeting a maximum at intermediate levels. Consequently, R H is highly sensitive to future precipitation changes and drought. However, soil management strategies could enhance SOC stocks and persistence under climate change. Bacterial and fungal inoculants can promote SOC production and stabilization, while deep-rooting plants increase SOC inputs to deeper layers that experience lower R H . Agricultural practices and biochar amendments can also enhance SOC and reduce R H . Expanding field trials across regions, climates and soil types would improve empirical understanding of these responses and support better representation of R H in predictive models, enabling more accurate assessments of climate impacts on SOC storage.

Jansson, Janet K. [Pacific Northwest National Labo↗
DOE OSTI2024

Intensified Positive Arctic–Methane Feedback under IPCC Climate Scenarios in the 21st Century

The positive Arctic–methane (CH 4 ) feedback forms when more CH 4 is released from the Arctic tundra to warm the climate, further stimulating the Arctic to emit CH 4 . This study utilized the CLM-Microbe model to project CH 4 emissions across five distinct Arctic tundra ecosystems on the Alaska North Slope, considering three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios using climate data from three climate models from 2016 to 2100. Employing a hyper-resolution of 5 m × 5 m within 40,000 m 2 domains accounted for the Arctic tundra’s high spatial heterogeneity; three sites were near $Utqia\dot{g}vik$ (US-Beo, US-Bes, and US-Brw), with one each in Atqasuk (US-Atq) and Ivotuk (US-Ivo). Simulated CH 4 emissions substantially increased by a factor of 5.3 to 7.5 under the SSP5–8.5 scenario compared to the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios. The projected CH 4 emissions exhibited a stronger response to rising temperature under the SSP5–8.5 scenario than under the SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, primarily due to strong temperature dependence and the enhanced precipitation-induced expansion of anoxic conditions that promoted methanogenesis. The CH 4 transport via ebullition and plant-mediated transport is projected to increase under all three SSP scenarios, and ebullition dominated CH 4 transport by 2100 across five sites. Projected CH 4 emissions varied in temperature sensitivity, with a Q 10 range of 2.7 to 60.9 under SSP1–2.6, 3.8 to 17.6 under SSP2–4.5, and 5.7 to 17.2 under SSP5–8.5. Compared with the other three sites, US-Atq and US-Ivo were estimated to have greater increases in CH 4 emissions due to warmer temperatures and higher precipitation. The fact that warmer sites and warmer climate scenarios had higher CH 4 emissions suggests an intensified positive Arctic–CH 4 feedback in the 21st century. Microbial physiology and substrate availability dominated the enhanced CH 4 production. The simulated intensified positive feedback underscores the urgent need for a more mechanistic understanding of CH 4 dynamics and the development of strategies to mitigate CH 4 across the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Near‐Surface Hydrology and Soil Properties Drive Heterogeneity in Permafrost Distribution, Vegetation Dynamics, and Carbon Cycling in a Sub‐Arctic Watershed

Abstract Discontinuous permafrost environments exhibit strong spatial heterogeneity at scales too small to be driven by weather forcing or captured by Earth System Models. Here we analyze effects of observed spatial heterogeneity in soil and vegetation properties, hydrology, and thermal dynamics on ecosystem carbon dynamics in a watershed on the Seward Peninsula in Alaska. We apply a Morris global sensitivity analysis to a process‐rich, successfully tested terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM), ecosys , varying soil properties, boundary conditions, and weather forcing. We show that landscape heterogeneity strongly impacts soil temperatures and vegetation composition. Snow depth, O‐horizon thickness, and near‐surface water content, which vary at scales of O(m), control the soil thermal regime more than an air temperature gradient corresponding to a 140 km north–south distance. High shrub productivity is simulated only in talik (perennially unfrozen) soils with high nitrogen availability. Through these effects on plant and permafrost dynamics, landscape heterogeneity impacts ecosystem productivity. Simulations with near‐surface taliks have higher microbial respiration (by 78.0 gC m −2 yr −1 ) and higher net primary productivity (by 104.9 gC m −2 yr −1 ) compared to runs with near‐surface permafrost, and simulations with high shrub productivity have outlying values of net carbon uptake. We explored the prediction uncertainty associated with ignoring observed landscape heterogeneity, and found that watershed net carbon uptake is 60% larger when heterogeneity is accounted for. Our results highlight the complexity inherent in discontinuous permafrost environments and demonstrate that missing representation of subgrid heterogeneity in TEMs could bias predictions of high‐latitude carbon budget.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗