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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation. Section 3 presents an overall precipitation improvement with AIRS assimilation during a 37-day case study period, and Section 4 focuses on a single case study to further investigate the meteorological impact of AIRS profiles on synoptic scale models. Finally, Section 5 provides a summary of the paper.

Chou, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Temporal development of the correlation between ozone and potential vorticity in the Arctic in the winters of 1988/1989, 1989/1990, and 1990/1991

Ozone sonde data of the winters 1988/89, 1989/90, and 1990/91 from a group of Arctic stations are used in this study. The ozone mixing ratio on several isentropic surfaces is correlated to the potential vorticity (P). The P is based on the initialized analysis data from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Similar investigations were made by Lait et al. (Geophys. Res. Lett., 17, 521-524, March Supplement 1990) for the AASE campaign (January and February 1989), showing how the ozone mixing ratio varies with the distance to the edge of the vortex. Their findings are confirmed and extended to the following two winters. Furthermore we have studied the temporal development of the P-ozone correlations during these winters in order to recognize any chemical ozone depletion.

Knudsen, Bjorn↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation of Global Surface Water Temperature Data Sets for use in Passive Remote Sensing of Soil Moisture

Inland open water bodies often pose a systematic error source in the passive remote sensing retrievals of soil moisture. Water temperature is a necessary variable used to compute water emissions that is required to be subtracted from satellite observation to yield actual emissions from the land portion, which in turn generates accurate soil moisture retrievals. Therefore, overestimation of soil moisture can often be corrected using concurrent water temperature data in the overall mitigation procedure. In recent years, several data sets of lake water temperature have become available, but their specifications and accuracy have rarely been investigated in the context of passive soil moisture remote sensing on a global scale. For this reason, three lake temperature products were evaluated against in-situ measurements from 2007 to 2011. The data sets include the lake surface water temperature (LSWT) from Global Observatory of Lake Responses to Environmental Change (GloboLakes), the Copernicus Global Land Operations Cryosphere and Water (C-GLOPS), as well as the lake mix-layer temperature (LMLT) from the European Centers for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) ERA5 Land Reanalysis. GloboLakes, C-GLOPS, and ERA5 Land have overall comparable performance with Pearson correlations (R) of 0.87, 0.92 and 0.88 in comparison with in-situ measurements. LSWT products exhibit negative median biases of −0.27 K (GloboLakes) and −0.31 K (C-GLOPS), whereas the median bias of LMLT is 1.56 K. When mapped from their respective native resolutions to a common 9 km Equal-Area Scalable Earth (EASE) Grid 2.0 projection, similar relative performance was observed. LMLT and LSWT data are closer in performance over the 9 km grid cells that exhibit a small range of lake cover fractions (0.05–0.5). Despite comparable relative performance, ERA5 Land shows great advantages in spatial coverage and temporal resolution. In summary, an integrated evaluation on data accuracy, long-term availability, global coverage, temporal resolution, and regular forward processing with modest data latency led us to conclude that LMLT from the ERA5 Land Reanalysis product represents the most optimal path for use in the development of a long-term soil moisture product.

Runze Zhang↗
NASA NTRS2007

Observational Evidence of a Hemispheric-wide Ice-ocean Albedo Feedback Effect on Antarctic Sea-ice Decay

The effect of ice-ocean albedo feedback (a kind of ice-albedo feedback) on sea-ice decay is demonstrated over the Antarctic sea-ice zone from an analysis of satellite-derived hemispheric sea ice concentration and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA-40) atmospheric data for the period 1979-2001. Sea ice concentration in December (time of most active melt) correlates better with the meridional component of the wind-forced ice drift (MID) in November (beginning of the melt season) than the MID in December. This 1 month lagged correlation is observed in most of the Antarctic sea-ice covered ocean. Daily time series of ice , concentration show that the ice concentration anomaly increases toward the time of maximum sea-ice melt. These findings can be explained by the following positive feedback effect: once ice concentration decreases (increases) at the beginning of the melt season, solar heating of the upper ocean through the increased (decreased) open water fraction is enhanced (reduced), leading to (suppressing) a further decrease in ice concentration by the oceanic heat. Results obtained fi-om a simple ice-ocean coupled model also support our interpretation of the observational results. This positive feedback mechanism explains in part the large interannual variability of the sea-ice cover in summer.

Nihashi, Sohey↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and Shallow Water Simulations

Sea level variations of the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data over April 1985-September 1989. These variations are compared and interpreted with numerical simulations derived from a reduced gravity model forced by FSU observed winds over the same period. After decomposition into complex empirical orthogonal functions, the low-frequency anomalies are described by the first two modes for observations as well as for simulations. The sums of the two modes contain 34% and 40% of the observed and simulated variances, respectively. Averaged over the basin, the observed and simulated sea level changes are correlated by 0.92 over 1985-1988. The strongest change happens during the El Ninio 1986-1987: between winter 1986 and summer 1987 the basin-averaged sea level rises by approx. 1 cm. These low-frequency variations can partly be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. The southern tropical Indian Ocean between 1O deg and 20 deg S is the domain where those changes are strongest: the averaged sea level rises by approx. 4.5 cm between winter 1986 and winter 1987. There, the signal propagates southwestward across the basin at a speed similar to free Rossby waves. Sensitivity of observed anomalies is examined over 1987-1988, with different orbit ephemeris, tropospheric corrections, and error reduction processes. The uncertainty of the basin-averaged sea level estimates is mostly due to the way the orbit error is reduced and reaches approx. 1 cm. Nonetheless, spatial correlation is good between the various observations and better than between observations and simulations. Sensitivity of simulated anomalies to the wind uncertainty, examined with Former Soviet Union (FSU) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forcings over 1985-1988, shows that the variance of the simulations driven by ECMWF is 52% smaller, as FSU winds are stronger than ECMWF. Results show that the wind strength also affects the dynamic response of the ocean: anomalies propagate westward across the basin more than twice as fast with FSU than with ECMWF. It is found that the discrepancy is larger between ECMWF and FSU simulations than between observations and FSU simulations.

Perigaud, Claire↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Variation and evolution of atmospheric structure over the SEA BB season as seen from aircraft and reanalysis

The presence of absorbing aerosols and atmospheric water vapor will impact clouds both radiatively and dynamically. The atmosphere over the southeast Atlantic Ocean (SEA) experiences consistent springtime biomass burning (BB) smoke from widespread agricultural fires on the African continent. This smoke layer is initially lofted high in a continental mixed layer (~5-6km) and is then transported westward into the free troposphere where it overlies and ultimately mixes into the underlying stratocumulus-topped oceanic boundary layer. Coincident with this smoke is an elevated humidity signal which is present from the time a given airmass is over the continental source region. ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) was a NASA Earth Venture Suborbital mission with the goal of measuring aerosol, cloud, and atmospheric properties over this region over three deployments in September 2016, August 2017, and October 2018. Measurements included in situ profile measurements of aerosol physical and optical properties, trace gas concentrations, and cloud properties, as well as column measurements of aerosol optical depth and trace gas concentrations from an airborne sun photometer, allowing for calculation of radiative heating at different altitudes. Here we present results from the three ORACLES deployments over the southeast Atlantic Ocean. The airborne observations capture both seasonal patterns (August through October) and spatial patterns (north/south and east/west) in the vertical smoke distribution and its correlation to atmospheric specific humidity over the SEA basin. We describe the observed variations and show that the variability in both meteorological and emissions is largely captured in the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasting Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (ECMWF CAMS) reanalysis, which allows for a more systematic examination of the relative frequency of observed conditions and their radiative impact over the region. Finally, we discuss the broader radiative and dynamical implications of these results for conditions of biomass burning aerosols overlying stratocumulus clouds.

Kristina Marie Myers Pistone↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Elevated Water Vapor Signal Associated With the Free Tropospheric Biomass Burning Plume Over the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

In southern Africa, widespread agricultural fires produce substantial biomass burning (BB) emissions over the region. The seasonal smoke plumes associated with these emissions are then advected westward over the persistent stratocumulus cloud deck in the southeast Atlantic (SEA) Ocean, resulting in aerosol effects which vary with time and location. Much work has focused on the effects of these aerosol plumes, but previous studies have also described an elevated free tropospheric water vapor signal over the SEA. Water vapor influences climate in its own right, and it is especially important to consider atmospheric water vapor when quantifying aerosol–cloud interactions and aerosol radiative effects. Here we present airborne observations made during the NASA ORACLES (ObseRvations of Aerosols above CLouds and their intEractionS) campaign over the SEA Ocean. In observations collected from multiple independent instruments on the NASA P-3 aircraft (from near-surface to 6–7 km), we observe a strongly linear correlation between pollution indicators (carbon monoxide (CO) and aerosol loading) and atmospheric water vapor content, seen at all altitudes above the boundary layer. The focus of the current study is on the especially strong correlation observed during the ORACLES-2016 deployment (out of Walvis Bay, Namibia), but a similar relationship is also observed in the August 2017 and October 2018 ORACLES deployments. Using reanalyses from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and specialized WRF-Chem simulations, we trace the plume–vapor relationship to an initial humid, smoky continental source region, where it mixes with clean, dry upper tropospheric air and then is subjected to conditions of strong westward advection, namely the southern African easterly jet (AEJ-S). Our analysis indicates that air masses likely left the continent with the same relationship between water vapor and carbon monoxide as was observed by aircraft. This linear relationship developed over the continent due to daytime convection within a deep continental boundary layer (up to ∼5–6 km) and mixing with higher-altitude air, which resulted in fairly consistent vertical gradients in CO and water vapor, decreasing with altitude and varying in time, but this water vapor does not originate as a product of the BB combustion itself. Due to a combination of conditions and mixing between the smoky, moist continental boundary layer and the dry and fairly clean upper-troposphere air above (∼6 km), the smoky, humid air is transported by strong zonal winds and then advected over the SEA (to the ORACLES flight region) following largely isentropic trajectories. Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) back trajectories support this interpretation. This work thus gives insights into the conditions and processes which cause water vapor to covary with plume strength. Better understanding of this relationship, including how it varies spatially and temporally, is important to accurately quantify direct, semi-direct, and indirect aerosol effects over this region.

Kristina Pistone↗
NASA NTRS1986

Prediction of monthly 700 mb heights using simulated medium-range numerical forecasts

Standardized 700 mb heights at 126 grid points over the Northern Hemisphere during 1948-80 were used to quantify the persistence of the heights from one month to the next (using various antecedent period lengths) and to determine predictive skill for calendar-month 700 mb heights using antecedent and simulated prognostic height information. The calculations showed that optimum period length and its corresponding average pattern correlation vary widely over the course of the year, being largest in summer and winter. The skill of models using simulated prog heights was found to be much superior to those using antecedent heights.

Harnack, R.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Investigating the Utility of Hyperspectral Sounders in the 9.6 μm Band to Improve Ozone Analyses

Currently, hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) are limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone sensitive 9.6 micron region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 micron region have been used previously to improve ozone analyses. This has recently been achieved by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) (Dragani and McNally, 2013; Eresmaa et al., 2017), and while every system presents its challenges, it should be possible to take advantage of this spectral region using the GEOS-ADAS. For this study, channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content, and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered in developing the study. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), and WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center). The addition of ozone channels does degrade forecast skill in the Tropics, on the border of statistical significance. Overall, the addition of these channels in some form could improve ozone analyses in the GEOS-ADAS.

Karpowicz, Bryan M.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Diabatic heating rate estimates from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts analyses

Vertically integrated diabatic heating rate estimates (H) calculated from 32 months of European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts daily analyses (May 1985-December 1987) are determined as residuals of the thermodynamic equation in pressure coordinates. Values for global, hemispheric, zonal, and grid point H are given as they vary over the time period examined. The distribution of H is compared with previous results and with outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) measurements. The most significant negative correlations between H and OLR occur for (1) tropical and Northern-Hemisphere mid-latitude oceanic areas and (2) zonal and hemispheric mean values for periods less than 90 days. Largest positive correlations are seen in periods greater than 90 days for the Northern Hemispheric mean and continental areas of North Africa, North America, northern Asia, and Antarctica. The physical basis for these relationships is discussed. An interyear comparison between 1986 and 1987 reveals the ENSO signal.

Christy, John R.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Atmospheric Dust Modeling from Meso to Global Scales with the Online NMMB/BSC-Dust Model Part 2: Experimental Campaigns in Northern Africa

The new NMMB/BSC-Dust model is intended to provide short to medium-range weather and dust forecasts from regional to global scales. It is an online model in which the dust aerosol dynamics and physics are solved at each model time step. The companion paper (Perez et al., 2011) develops the dust model parameterizations and provides daily to annual evaluations of the model for its global and regional configurations. Modeled aerosol optical depth (AOD) was evaluated against AERONET Sun photometers over Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe with correlations around 0.6-0.7 on average without dust data assimilation. In this paper we analyze in detail the behavior of the model using data from the Saharan Mineral dUst experiment (SAMUM-1) in 2006 and the Bodele Dust Experiment (BoDEx) in 2005. AOD from satellites and Sun photometers, vertically resolved extinction coefficients from lidars and particle size distributions at the ground and in the troposphere are used, complemented by wind profile data and surface meteorological measurements. All simulations were performed at the regional scale for the Northern African domain at the expected operational horizontal resolution of 25 km. Model results for SAMUM-1 generally show good agreement with satellite data over the most active Saharan dust sources. The model reproduces the AOD from Sun photometers close to sources and after long-range transport, and the dust size spectra at different height levels. At this resolution, the model is not able to reproduce a large haboob that occurred during the campaign. Some deficiencies are found concerning the vertical dust distribution related to the representation of the mixing height in the atmospheric part of the model. For the BoDEx episode, we found the diurnal temperature cycle to be strongly dependant on the soil moisture, which is underestimated in the NCEP analysis used for model initialization. The low level jet (LLJ) and the dust AOD over the Bodélé are well reproduced. The remaining negative AOD bias (due to underestimated surface wind speeds) can be substantially reduced by decreasing the threshold friction velocity in the model.

photometers↗
NASA NTRS2010

Extracting Independent Local Oscillatory Geophysical Signals by Geodetic Tropospheric Delay

Zenith Tropospheric Delay (ZTD) due to water vapor derived from space geodetic techniques and numerical weather prediction simulated-reanalysis data exhibits non-linear and non-stationary properties akin to those in the crucial geophysical signals of interest to the research community. These time series, once decomposed into additive (and stochastic) components, have information about the long term global change (the trend) and other interpretable (quasi-) periodic components such as seasonal cycles and noise. Such stochastic component(s) could be a function that exhibits at most one extremum within a data span or a monotonic function within a certain temporal span. In this contribution, we examine the use of the combined Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) and Independent Component Analysis (ICA): the EEMD-ICA algorithm to extract the independent local oscillatory stochastic components in the tropospheric delay derived from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) over six geodetic sites (HartRAO, Hobart26, Wettzell, Gilcreek, Westford, and Tsukub32). The proposed methodology allows independent geophysical processes to be extracted and assessed. Analysis of the quality index of the Independent Components (ICs) derived for each cluster of local oscillatory components (also called the Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs)) for all the geodetic stations considered in the study demonstrate that they are strongly site dependent. Such strong dependency seems to suggest that the localized geophysical signals embedded in the ZTD over the geodetic sites are not correlated. Further, from the viewpoint of non-linear dynamical systems, four geophysical signals the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) index derived from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) anomaly from NCEP, the SIDC monthly Sun Spot Number (SSN), and the Length of Day (LoD) are linked to the extracted signal components from ZTD. Results from the synchronization analysis show that ZTD and the geophysical signals exhibit (albeit subtle) site dependent phase synchronization index.

Botai, O. J.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Observations of Typhoon Generated Gravity Waves From the CIPS and AIRS Instruments and Comparison to the High-Resolution ECMWF Model

The satellite-based Cloud Imaging and Particle Size (CIPS) instrument and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observed concentric gravity waves (GWs) generated by Typhoon Yutu in late October 2018. This work compares CIPS and AIRS nadir viewing observations of GWs at altitudes of 50–55 and 30–40 km, respectively, to simulations from the high-resolution European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting Integrated Forecasting System (ECMWF-IFS) and ECMWF reanalysis v5 (ERA5). Both ECMWF-IFS with 9 km and ERA5 with 31 km horizontal resolution show concentric GWs at similar locations and timing as the AIRS and CIPS observations. The GW wavelengths are ∼225–236 km in ECMWF-IFS simulations, which compares well with the wavelength inferred from the observations. After validation of ECMWF GWs, five category five typhoon events during 2018 are analyzed using ECMWF to obtain characteristics of concentric GWs in the Western Pacific regions. The amplitudes of GWs in the stratosphere are not strongly correlated with the strength of typhoons, but are controlled by background wind conditions. Our results confirm that amplitudes and shapes of concentric GWs observed in the stratosphere and lowermost mesosphere are heavily influenced by the background wind conditions.

gravity wave↗
NASA NTRS2020

Evaluation of long-term Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent products

Nine gridded Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) products were evaluated as part of the European Space Agency (ESA) Satellite Snow Product Intercomparison and Evaluation Exercise (SnowPEx). Three categories of datasets were assessed: (1) those utilizing some form of reanalysis (the NASA Global Land Data Assimilation System version 2 – GLDAS-2; the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) interim land surface reanalysis – ERA-Interim/Land and ERA5; the NASA Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications version 1 (MERRA) and version 2 (MERRA-2); the Crocus snow model driven by ERA-Interim meteorology – Crocus); (2) passive microwave remote sensing combined with daily surface snow depth observations (ESA GlobSnow v2.0); and (3) stand-alone passive microwave retrievals (NASA AMSR-E SWE versions 1.0 and 2.0) which do not utilize surface snow observations. Evaluation included validation against independent snow course measurements from Russia, Finland, and Canada and product intercomparison through the calculation of spatial and temporal correlations in SWE anomalies. The stand-alone passive microwave SWE products (AMSR-E v1.0 and v2.0 SWE) exhibit low spatial and temporal correlations to other products and RMSE nearly double the best performing product. Constraining passive microwave retrievals with surface observations (GlobSnow) provides performance comparable to the reanalysis-based products; RMSE over Finland and Russia for all but the AMSR-E products is ∼50 mm or less, with the exception of ERA-Interim/Land over Russia. Using a seven-dataset ensemble that excluded the stand-alone passive microwave products reduced the RMSE by 10 mm (20 %) and increased the correlation from 0.67 to 0.78 compared to any individual product. The overall performance of the best multiproduct combinations is still at the margins of acceptable uncertainty for scientific and operational requirements; only through combined and integrated improvements in remote sensing, modeling, and observations will real progress in SWE product development be achieved.

Northern Hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) pr↗
NASA NTRS1995

Variability of moisture in the upper troposphere as inferred from TOVS satellite observations and the ECMWF model analyses in 1989

Large-scale variability of moisture in the upper troposphere is examined using TIROS (Television Infrared Observation Satellite) Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) satellite observations and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model analyses from 1989 in the latitude band from 40 deg N to 40 S. To compare these dissimilar datasets, upwelling radiances were computed for the 6-7 micrometer water vapor band from the ECMWF temperature and moisture analyses, and these computed radiances were compared to the corresponding TOVS satellite observations. The ECMWF-based radiances reproduce the general locations and seasonal cycle of the TOVS-observed moisture features, particularly after an improved convective parameterization scheme was adopted by ECMWF in May 1989. However, the ECMWF analysis scheme still results in much milder lateral moisture gradients and seasonal contrasts than indicated by the TOVS observations. Seasonally, the upper troposphere in each hemisphere dries in winter and moistens in summer, but there are regions in each hemisphere that run counter to this seasonal trend, apparently depending on continental- and monsoon-scale dynamics. Dynamically, the TOVS-observed regions of significant subtropical dryness are correlated with persistent subsidence indicated by ECMWF 300-mb vertical velocity analyses. The TOVS radiance observations indicate large variations in space and time of the upper-tropospheric moisture field, which are not fully captured by the ECMWF analyses.

Salathe, Eric P., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Principal modes of atmospheric circulation anomalies associated with global angular momentum fluctuations

This paper provides a description of the variability of global atmospheric angular momentum (GAM) and its relationship with principal modes of three-dimensional atmospheric circulation anomalies. The data used are 5-day mean global wind fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts initialized dataset for 1980-1989. Significant seasonal variation of GAM is observed with maxima in April and November and a minimum during late July. The amplitude of the annual cycle is largest in the upper troposphere and decreases toward the surface. Although the lower tropospheric contribution to the total angular momentum is relatively small, its annual cycle is out of phase with those of the upper atmosphere and GAM. Also identified is a distinct semiannual component, with double peaks appearing in April and November. This signal is most noticeable in the upper troposphere above the 300-mb level. The principal modes of zonal-mean angular momentum and meridional circulation anomalies and their coupled modes are obtained by using empirical orthogonal function analysis and singular value decomposition. It is shown that the leading modes of the angular momentum and meridional circulation are coupled with each other and are responsible for much of the variability in GAM. The coupled modes represent fluctuations of upper-level subtropical zonal flow, which are linked to the modulation of Hadley circulation intensity in both hemispheres. It is found that GAM is highly correlated with the first eigenvector of upper-level streamfunction anomalies, which consists of a superrotational flow in the tropics and subtropics, except over the central Pacific where a 'blocked' flow with two subtropical anticyclonic circulation cells straddling the equator is found. Much of the blocked flow is due to the establishment of dipole anomalies in the velocity potential with centers over the central Pacific and the Maritime Continent on the interannual time scale. On the intraseasonal time scale, GAM fluctuation is dominated by superrotational flow in the tropics, with the blocked flow present to a much lesser extent. The associated velocity potential anomaly has a weak dipole structure with centers over the Indian Ocean and the eastern Pacific. The implications of the above results on the total angular momentum balance of the earth-atmosphere system are also discussed.

Kang, In-Sik↗
NASA NTRS1994

Evaluation of water vapor distribution in general circulation models using satellite observations

This paper presents a comparison of the water vapor distribution obtained from two general circulation models, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) model and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Climate Model (CCM), with satellite observations of total precipitable water (TPW) from Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) and upper tropospheric relative humidity (UTH) from GOES. Overall, both models are successful in capturing the primary features of the observed water vapor distribution and its seasonal variation. For the ECMWF model, however, a systematic moist bias in TPW is noted over well-known stratocumulus regions in the eastern subtropical oceans. Comparison with radiosonde profiles suggests that this problem is attributable to difficulties in modeling the shallowness of the boundary layer and large vertical water vapor gradients which characterize these regions. In comparison, the CCM is more successful in capturing the low values of TPW in the stratocumulus regions, although it tends to exhibit a dry bias over the eastern half of the subtropical oceans and a corresponding moist bias in the western half. The CCM also significantly overestimates the daily variability of the moisture fields in convective regions, suggesting a problem in simulating the temporal nature of moisture transport by deep convection. Comparison of the monthly mean UTH distribution indicates generally larger discrepancies than were noted for TPW owing to the greater influence of large-scale dynamical processes in determining the distribution of UTH. In particular, the ECMWF model exhibits a distinct dry bias along the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) and a moist bias over the subtropical descending branches of the Hadley cell, suggesting an underprediction in the strength of the Hadley circulation. The CCM, on the other hand, demonstrates greater discrepancies in UTH than are observed for the ECMWF model, but none that are as clearly correlated with well-known features of the large-scale circulation.

Soden, Brian J.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Variability of Winter Air Temperature in Mid-Latitude Europe

The aim of this paper is to report extreme winter/early-spring air temperature (hereinafter temperature) anomalies in mid-latitude Europe, and to discuss the underlying forcing to these interannual fluctuations. Warm advection from the North Atlantic in late winter controls the surface-air temperature, as indicated by the substantial correlation between the speed of the surface southwesterlies over the eastern North Atlantic (quantified by a specific Index Ina) and the 2-meter level air temperatures (hereinafter Ts) over Europe, 45-60 deg N, in winter. In mid-March and subsequently, the correlation drops drastically (quite often it is negative). This change in the relationship between Ts and Ina marks a transition in the control of the surface-air temperature: absorption of insolation replaces the warm advection as the dominant control. This forcing by maritime-air advection in winter was demonstrated in a previous publication, and is re-examined here in conjunction with extreme fluctuations of temperatures in Europe. We analyze here the interannual variability at its extreme by comparing warm-winter/early-spring of 1989/90 with the opposite scenario in 1995/96. For these two December-to-March periods the differences in the monthly mean temperature in Warsaw and Torun, Poland, range above 10 C. Short-term (shorter than a month) fluctuations of the temperature are likewise very strong. We conduct pentad-by-pentad analysis of the surface-maximum air temperature (hereinafter Tmax), in a selected location, examining the dependence on Ina. The increased cloudiness and higher amounts of total precipitable water, corollary effects to the warm low-level advection. in the 1989/90 winter, enhance the positive temperature anomalies. The analysis of the ocean surface winds is based on the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) dataset; ascent rates, and over land wind data are from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF); maps of 2-m temperature, cloud cover and precipitable water are from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Reanalysis.

Otterman, J.↗