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Results for “mean multi-objective cost of uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying the Multi-Objective Cost of Uncertainty

Various real-world applications involve modeling complex systems with immense uncertainty and optimizing multiple objectives based on the uncertain model. Quantifying the impact of the model uncertainty on the given operational objectives is critical for designing optimal experiments that can most effectively reduce the uncertainty that affect the objectives pertinent to the application at hand. In this paper, we propose the concept of mean multi-objective cost of uncertainty (multi-objective MOCU) that can be used for objective-based quantification of uncertainty for complex uncertain systems considering multiple operational objectives. We provide several illustrative examples that demonstrate the concept and strengths of the proposed multi-objective MOCU. Furthermore, we present a real-world example based on the mammalian cell cycle network to demonstrate how the multi-objective MOCU can be used for quantifying the operational impact of model uncertainty when there are multiple, possibly competing, objectives.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Selection of representative general circulation models under climatic uncertainty for Western North America

Abstract Climate change research uses an ensemble of general circulation model runs (GCMs-runs) to predict future climate under uncertainties. To reduce computational costs, this study selects representative GCM-runs (RGCM-runs) for Western North America (WNA) based on their performance in replicating historical climate conditions from 1981 to 2005 and projecting future changes from 1981–2010 to 2071–2100. This evaluation is conducted under two representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5. By using an envelope-based selection technique and a multi-objective distance-based approach, we identify four RGCM-runs per RCP representing diverse climatic conditions, including wet-warm, wet-cold, dry-warm, and dry-cold. Compared to the full-set, these selected runs show a decreased mean absolute error (MAE) between the reference and RGCM-runs concerning the monthly average mean air temperature (T̄) and precipitation (P̄). For RCP4.5, T̄ MAE is 0.45 (vs. 0.58 in the full-set) and P̄ MAE is 0.31 (vs. 0.42). For RCP8.5, T̄ MAE is 0.51 (vs. 0.75) and P̄ MAE is 0.25 (vs. 0.36). The lower MAE values in the RGCM-run set indicate closer alignment between predicted and reference values, making the RGCM-run suitable for climate impact assessments in the region.

Water Resources↗

DOE OSTI2022

J-PLUS: Support vector regression to measure stellar parameters

Stellar parameters are among the most important characteristics in studies of stars which, in traditional methods, are based on atmosphere models. However, time, cost, and brightness limits restrain the efficiency of spectral observations. The Javalambre Photometric Local Universe Survey (J-PLUS) is an observational campaign that aims to obtain photometry in 12 bands. Owing to its characteristics, J-PLUS data have become a valuable resource for studies of stars. Machine learning provides powerful tools for efficiently analyzing large data sets, such as the one from J-PLUS, and enables us to expand the research domain to stellar parameters. The main goal of this study is to construct a support vector regression (SVR) algorithm to estimate stellar parameters of the stars in the first data release of the J-PLUS observational campaign. The training data for the parameter's regressions are featured with 12-waveband photometry from J-PLUS and are crossidentified with spectrum-based catalogs. These catalogs are from the Large Sky Area Multi-Object Fiber Spectroscopic Telescope, the Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment, and the Sloan Extension for Galactic Understanding and Exploration. We then label them with the stellar effective temperature, the surface gravity, and the metallicity. Ten percent of the sample is held out to apply a blind test. We develop a new method, a multi-model approach, in order to fully take into account, the uncertainties of both the magnitudes and the stellar parameters. The method utilizes more than 200 models to apply the uncertainty analysis. We present a catalog of 2 493 424 stars with the root mean square error of 160 K in the effective temperature regression, 0.35 in the surface gravity regression, and 0.25 in the metallicity regression. We also discuss the advantages of this multi-model approach and compare it to other machine-learning methods.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗