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At least 19 records

Market trends

A very large segment of the over water, long haul passenger market, 31% of the passengers who provide 42% of the passenger revenue, offers a significant market for an advanced supersonic transport. This is for both the first class and full-fare economy passenger markets. The supersonic transport may be more competitive here in spite of lower costs of subsonic transports, as passenger preference is a more powerful variable than DOC. This latter fact was amply demonstrated in the late fifties when the jets completely replaced the reciprocating engine transports on most world routes, in spite of slightly higher fares.

Fitzsimmons, R. D.↗

Subsonic Single Aft Engine Narrowbody (SUSAN) Freighter Concept and Market Analysis

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with mounted wing battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition, however, additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft are needed. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Jacob M. Wishart↗

Hybrid Electric Turboprop Commercial Freighter (HETCOF) Market Study

The dedicated air cargo and freight market has the potential to be a critical early pathway for emerging technologies in low to zero emission propulsion. This study analyzes the cargo aviation market to understand current market trends and future market viability of a mid-sized all-electric or hybrid-electric concept aircraft. While cargo aviation’s overall emissions footprint is small relative to commercial passenger aviation, it remains an important and challenging transportation sector to decarbonize. Past research has focused on small, less than 19-seat electrified aircraft propulsion concepts that could serve both passenger and air cargo markets. This study extends the electrified market space into larger aircraft classes, considering if a purpose-built large hybrid electric turboprop freighter can compete in the market currently served primarily by conversion narrowbody freighters. Specifically, this paper focuses on the mid-sized cargo market with payload ranges of 40,000-50,000lbs, and an all-electric range potential up to 750 miles. The concept aircraft is based on a 4-engine turboprop configuration, with wing mounted battery packs and an aft cargo door to allow for standardized palletization. The market analysis indicates broad market coverage with 73% of the existing mid-sized cargo network within the range of 750 miles. A breakeven analysis of operating and capital costs shows potential for market competition; however, this would require additional energy and acquisition cost savings from the concept aircraft. Evidence from the breakeven analysis also points to higher rates of aircraft utilization being a critical path to lowering costs and increasing cost effectiveness.

Hybrid Electric↗

Database tomography for commercial application

Database tomography is a method for extracting themes and their relationships from text. The algorithms, employed begin with word frequency and word proximity analysis and build upon these results. When the word 'database' is used, think of medical or police records, patents, journals, or papers, etc. (any text information that can be computer stored). Database tomography features a full text, user interactive technique enabling the user to identify areas of interest, establish relationships, and map trends for a deeper understanding of an area of interest. Database tomography concepts and applications have been reported in journals and presented at conferences. One important feature of the database tomography algorithm is that it can be used on a database of any size, and will facilitate the users ability to understand the volume of content therein. While employing the process to identify research opportunities it became obvious that this promising technology has potential applications for business, science, engineering, law, and academe. Examples include evaluating marketing trends, strategies, relationships and associations. Also, the database tomography process would be a powerful component in the area of competitive intelligence, national security intelligence and patent analysis. User interests and involvement cannot be overemphasized.

Kostoff, Ronald N.↗

Two hundred years of flight in America: A bicentennial survey

The first recorded balloon ascension in America took place on June 19, 1784, when an unmanned balloon was raised in a public demonstration at Bladensburg, Maryland. On June 24, 1784, a thirteen-year-old boy ascended in the same balloon. The history of actual flight during the nineteenth century was entirely concerned with balloons except for several gliders and models leading to the coming of the airship and the aircraft. The history of practical flight in America begins in the twentieth century. The described developments related to aerostatics are concerned with balloons, rigid airships, and blimps. In a review of the evolution of aeronautics, attention is given to general aviation and its search for a market, trends in military aeronautics, and commercial aviation. It is pointed out that American air transport had its birth on New Year's Day, 1914, at Tampa Bay, Florida. The evolution of astronautics during the period from 1957 to 1976 is also examined, taking into account scientific satellites, the Apollo project, the exploration of the planets with the aid of unmanned spacecraft, strategic reconnaissance satellites, missile alarm satellites, instrumental satellites for detecting nuclear and thermonuclear explosions, weather satellites, communications satellites, and earth resource survey and geodetic satellites.

Emme, E. M.↗

Lost in Cloud

Cloud computing can reduce cost significantly because businesses can share computing resources. In recent years Small and Medium Businesses (SMB) have used Cloud effectively for cost saving and for sharing IT expenses. With the success of SMBs, many perceive that the larger enterprises ought to move into Cloud environment as well. Government agency s stove-piped environments are being considered as candidates for potential use of Cloud either as an enterprise entity or pockets of small communities. Cloud Computing is the delivery of computing as a service rather than as a product, whereby shared resources, software, and information are provided to computers and other devices as a utility over a network. Underneath the offered services, there exists a modern infrastructure cost of which is often spread across its services or its investors. As NASA is considered as an Enterprise class organization, like other enterprises, a shift has been occurring in perceiving its IT services as candidates for Cloud services. This paper discusses market trends in cloud computing from an enterprise angle and then addresses the topic of Cloud Computing for NASA in two possible forms. First, in the form of a public Cloud to support it as an enterprise, as well as to share it with the commercial and public at large. Second, as a private Cloud wherein the infrastructure is operated solely for NASA, whether managed internally or by a third-party and hosted internally or externally. The paper addresses the strengths and weaknesses of both paradigms of public and private Clouds, in both internally and externally operated settings. The content of the paper is from a NASA perspective but is applicable to any large enterprise with thousands of employees and contractors.

Maluf, David A.↗

On the Use of SMAP Soil Moisture for Forecasting NDVI Over CONUS Cropland Regions

Vegetation health forecasting (NDVI as a proxy) informs decision-makers about the end of season crop yield productivity but is not well-documented. This study tests improvements in vegetation health forecasting by developing a data-driven Dynamic Agricultural Productivity Indicator ( DAPI ), which simultaneously incorporates satellite-based root zone soil moisture (RZSM) and satellite-based NDVI data. RZSM is estimated via data assimilation of satellite based SMAP SM dataset. We employ the proposed DAPI forecast across four cropland types in CONUS, including corn, cotton, soybeans, and wheat. Results demonstrate superior performance of the DAPI forecasts compared to climatology-based NDVI forecasts, with the largest improvements in water-limited regions. DAPI shows particularly good performance during hydrologic disturbances such as floods and droughts. To this end, the DAPI approach is useful in estimating future vegetation health for identifying potential food-insecure areas, predicting crop price changes, and projecting expected commodities market trends.

Manh Le↗

New Local, National and Regional Cereal Price Indices for Improved Identification of Food Insecurity

Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Toward Mass Customization in the Age of Information: The Case for Open Engineering Systems

In the Industrial Era, manufacturers used "dedicated" engineering systems to mass produce their products. In today's increasingly competitive markets, the trend is toward mass customization, something that becomes increasingly feasible when modern information technologies are used to create open engineering systems. Our focus is on how designers can provide enhanced product flexibility and variety (if not fully customized products) through the development of open engineering systems. After presenting several industrial examples, we anchor our new systems philosophy with two real engineering applications. We believe that manufacturers who adopt open systems will achieve competitive advantage in the Information Age.

Simpson, Timothy W.↗

Aero-Mechanical Design Methodology for Subsonic Civil Transport High-Lift Systems

In today's highly competitive and economically driven commercial aviation market, the trend is to make aircraft systems simpler and to shorten their design cycle which reduces recurring, non-recurring and operating costs. One such system is the high-lift system. A methodology has been developed which merges aerodynamic data with kinematic analysis of the trailing-edge flap mechanism with minimum mechanism definition required. This methodology provides quick and accurate aerodynamic performance prediction for a given flap deployment mechanism early on in the high-lift system preliminary design stage. Sample analysis results for four different deployment mechanisms are presented as well as descriptions of the aerodynamic and mechanism data required for evaluation. Extensions to interactive design capabilities are also discussed.

vanDam, C. P.↗

The Opportunities and Threats of Turning Airports into Hubs

This paper examines the opportunities and threats which arise when turning origin/destination airports into hubs. The analysis focuses on market development trends, competitive structures, especially in the light of airline network strategies and the growing rivalry between airports, and finally the potential financial impacts for the airport, including both investment efforts and the financial results from hub operations. We argue that in most cases a decision against converting a traditional origin/destination airport into a major transfer point is preferable to the transformation into a hub.

Kraus, Andreas↗

Seat Capacity Selection for an Advanced Short-Haul Aircraft Design

A study was performed to determine the target seat capacity for a proposed advanced short-haul aircraft concept projected to enter the fleet by 2030. This analysis projected the potential demand in the U.S. for a short-haul aircraft using a transportation theory approach, rather than selecting a target seat capacity based on recent industry trends or current market demand. A transportation systems model was used to create a point-to-point network of short-haul trips and then predict the number of annual origin-destination trips on this network. Aircraft of varying seat capacities were used to meet the demand on this network, assuming a single aircraft type for the entire short-haul fleet. For each aircraft size, the ticket revenue and operational costs were used to calculate a total market profitability metric for all feasible flights. The different aircraft sizes were compared, based on this market profitability metric and also the total number of annual round trips and markets served. Sensitivity studies were also performed to determine the effect of changing the aircraft cruise speed and maximum trip length. Using this analysis, the advanced short-haul aircraft design team was able to select a target seat capacity for their design.

Marien, Ty V.↗

Foreign civil aviation competition: 1976 summary and implications

A summary assessment is made of foreign civil aviation as it relates to the posture of the United States civil aviation industry. Major findings include: (1) Main competitors - European Economic Community (EEC) and Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). (2) Largest commercial market - Transport aircraft. (3) Current market status and projections - U.S. currently dominates the civil aviation market but foreign markets show greater growth trends. (4) Competitive comparisons - Status comparisons are made in technology (aerodynamics, structures and materials, propulsion, avionics, systems, design coordination, and manufacturing); production runs; marketing; and postsales support. The U.S. generally leads except in aerodynamics and propulsion. (5) Multinational ventures - Joint U.S. industry/foreign government development of advanced technology engines is well developed; airframe industry discussions are now underway. (6) Implications - Although the U.S., is currently preeminent in most areas, this may be only a temporary condition. Past U.S. success in aviation has provided many benefits to the nation. These benefits may be lost.

Alford, W. J., Jr.↗

Trends in Commuter Air Carrier Operations

The market for commuter air service is analyzed. Methods for reducing the costs of short haul air transportation are discussed. The problems facing the operators of short haul air transport services are identified. Proposed changes in commuter air carrier regulation are submitted.

Swan, W.↗

The development and utilization of solar photovoltaic cells: An assessment of the potential for a new energy technology

The Government set the goal of accelerating the adaptation of photovoltaics by reducing system costs to a competitive level and overcoming the technical, institutional, legal, environmental, and social barriers impeding the diffusion of photovoltaic technology. The technology of silicon solar arrays was examined and the status of development efforts are reviewed. The political, legal, economic, social, and environmental issues are discussed, and several methods for selecting development projects are described. A number of market forecasting techniques, including time trend, judgemental, and econometric methods, were reviewed, and the results of these models are presented.

Cyr, K. J.↗

Consequences of Slot Transactions on Airport Congestion and Environmental Protection

Recent trends in the liberalization of market access by many commercial airlines have opened the skies to virtually unlimited flights between many countries. However, this liberalization is stultified by the lack of airport capacity to accommodate the many flights that are generated by demand for capacity. Accordingly, the allocation of slots for open skies airlines remain dependent on the expansion and effective management of airport capacity. This article examines the ramifications of slot allocation on traffic peaking at airports and environmental concerns, which may emerge with this activity.

Abeyratne, Ruwantissa I.R.↗