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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Implications of Automated Merging Control in a Mixed and Heterogeneous Traffic Environment

Previous efforts to explore the implications of partial market penetration of connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) show a consensus on the benefits of higher market penetration rates (MPR) of vehicles enabled with connectivity and/or automation. There is, however, a level of uncertainty regarding the effects of lower market penetration rates and the consideration of heterogeneous vehicle fleets. Using VISSIM to perform microscopic traffic simulation and, vehicle simulation models, we assess the impacts of different CAVs market penetration rates on fuel consumption considering a heterogeneous traffic environment. The results show that the fuel efficiency benefits of optimal coordination control are maximized in moderate congested scenarios when the CAVs MPR exceeds 40%.

Rios Torres, Jackeline↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transition Metal Blocking Microporous Polymer Separators for Energy-Dense and Long-Lived Li-ion Batteries

A revolution in electric-powered mobility is imminent, catalyzed by breakthroughs in Li-ion battery technology that have dramatically lowered the $/kWh price tag of electrochemical energy storage. Increases in production have also enabled greater penetration in key markets. World-wide registration of new plug-in hybrid electric and battery-only electric vehicles (PHEV and BEV) increased by 70% from 2014 to 2015, and sales of PHEVs and BEVs are predicted to be 35% of all vehicle sales by 2040, reaching 41 million units per year—a 90-fold increase from 2015.1,2 In stride with industry giants such as Tesla, EV manufacturers rely on Li-ion cell Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) for relentless improvements in Li-ion battery technology necessary to drive this bullish market penetration outlook. Advancing energy and power density is critical to alleviating EV-customer range anxiety. Furthermore, strategies to extend battery-pack life beyond 1000 cycles—particularly when operating under aggressive duty cycles—requires fresh perspectives and innovation in cell components.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

High-Penetration Microgrids Providing Grid Stability Using Frequency Watt Control

The U.S. grid is rapidly transitioning towards utilizing inverter-based renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and batteries, reducing the carbon emission footprint. Inverter-based microgrid control architectures remain a critical focus to address power system stability issues in future high penetration markets lacking spinning generation assets. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is researching an active layered inverter based frequency-Watt control scheme that provides distribution level stability in high-penetration markets where grid inertia is lacking. Hardware in the loop case study was implemented using INL’s Microgrid Testbed to combat scalable frequency deviations ranging from 60 Hz down to 50 Hz initialized by a hydropower model implementing step loads using a 540-kW grid emulator. Our research findings demonstrate the importance of distribution level, inverter-based active frequency-Watt controls utilizing a battery energy storage system (BESS) to provide adequate frequency support at the point of common coupling without major power infrastructure upgrades.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

High Penetration Microgrids Providing Grid Stability Using Frequency-Watt Control Presentation

The U.S. grid is rapidly transitioning towards utilizing inverter-based renewable energy resources such as solar, wind, and batteries, reducing the carbon emission footprint.Inverter-based microgrid control architectures remain a critical focus to address power system stability issues in future high penetration markets lacking spinning generation assets. Idaho National Laboratory (INL) is researching an active layered inverter based frequency-Watt control scheme that provides distribution level stability in high-penetration markets where grid inertia is lacking. Hardware in the loop case study was implemented using INL’s Microgrid Testbed to combat scalable frequency deviations ranging from 60 Hz down to 50 Hz initialized by a hydropower model implementing step loads using a 540-kW grid emulator. Our research findings demonstrate the importance of distribution level, inverter-based active frequency-Watt controls utilizing a battery energy storage system (BESS) to provide adequate frequency support at the point of common coupling without major power infrastructure upgrades.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Catalyzing the Mass Adoption of High Efficiency Technologies in the Multifamily Housing Market

ICAST’s objective was to catalyze the adoption of very-high-efficiency (VHE) heat pump HVAC (mini-splits) and water heaters (HPWH) in multifamily (MF), especially affordable housing (MFAH). Nationally, the market penetration of ENERGY STAR-certified ASHPs is estimated at 43%, and for HPWHs it’s 3% (ENERGY STAR, 2022). Note that mini-splits are a much more practical choice for MF units than ducted systems and their adoption is only a portion of the number provided above, but isolating the market penetration data for mini-split systems is difficult. Both the heat pump-based HVAC and water heater systems can be approx. three times more efficient than their conventional counterparts for space and water heating. While awareness and adoption of VHE heat pumps has been growing nationally, and electric heat pump systems have outsold gas furnaces for two years in a row, the MF segment continues to lag behind single-family. MF constitutes almost a third of the housing in the U.S., so scaling up VHE adoption in this segment can assist in achieving critical climate change goals, while preserving housing affordability for the low-to-moderate income (LMI) population (historically, 85% of residents of MF are LMI).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Integration of Pumped Heat Energy Storage with Fossil-Fired Power Plant (Final Report)

The project team of Southwest Research Institute ® (SwRI ® ), Malta Inc. (Malta), and Luminant Generation Company LLC (Luminant) completed a feasibility study for the integration of a 100-MW, 10-hour (1000-MWh) Malta Pumped Heat Energy Storage (MPHES) system with multiple full-sized fossil-fired electricity generation units (EGU) in Luminant portfolio. MPHES is a long-duration, molten-salt-energy storage technology that uses turbomachinery and heat exchangers to transfer energy to a thermal storage media when charging, and removes the heat in a similar fashion when discharging. With high round trip efficiency (60-65%) and long lifespan (30+ years), MPHES provides economic benefits to the fossil-asset owners that can be scaled to integrate with assets across their portfolio. This technology uses hardware components, workforce personnel, and skillsets similar to those used by fossil EGUs, allowing for synergy when co-locating the two technologies. Luminant has approximately 39,000 megawatts of generation across 12 states, operating in six of the seven competitive markets in the U.S. and powered by a diverse portfolio of natural gas, nuclear, coal, and solar facilities. The DeCordova plant in Granbury, Texas, a simple cycle natural gas peaker power plant, was used as the fossil-fired asset in this project. The local market in Granbury, Texas has many influences, including several nearby power plants, a Luminant-owned nuclear plant (Comanche Peak), and substantial wind energy, which causes both negative pricing at night and high market volatility. Reducing false starts of the DeCordova plant and better responding to market volatility would be an economic advantage. Luminant is currently integrating battery storage plant on site to begin addressing these challenges. Integrating long-duration storage, like MPHES, would expand this capability beyond one hour of storage and have the potential to greatly reduce the total number of gas turbine starts. The MPHES charging requirement could help offset the overnight operating costs of Comanche Peak, which cannot load follow, and the nearby Luminant-owned Wise County combined cycle plant that cycles too often. Following the assessment of Luminant’s ERCOT-based portfolio for integration compatibility with Malta’s PHES system and the project tasks of conceptual study, technoeconomic analysis, technology gap assessment, and commercialization plan, the project team effort has resulted in several key outcomes: (1) Identification of market trends in a high-wind penetration market outside a major metropolitan area; (2) Creation of a dispatching model for the MPHES system and the pairing of Li-ion battery with a gas turbine in a real time market; (3) Revenue and cost estimations for operating MPHES alongside a gas peaker plant with real dispatching considerations and comparison with variations in the Malta implementation, including doubling the storage capacity and using two discharge drivetrains; (4) Potential carbon emission reductions possible by replacing gas turbine operation with Malta PHES operation; and (5) Summary of literature-based future market predictions for Texas.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Light-Duty Vehicle Transportation Policy and Implication on Greenhouse Gas Emissions

The transportation sector accounts for 16% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and is under formidable pressure to decarbonize. With a growing number of countries making commitments to achieve carbon neutrality or “net-zero” emissions within the next few decades, it is imperative for transportation researchers and policymakers to understand the viable pathways towards achieving carbon neutrality for light-duty transport. This chapter discusses the transportation policies and GHG emissions of the three largest markets in the world—the U.S., China, and the European Union. The life cycle GHG emissions of various vehicle technologies are evaluated while highlighting the regional and temporal differences. We then use market penetration and fleet models, developed specifically for each market, to comprehensively assess the light-duty transport energy demand and GHG emissions under various scenarios. The modeling results show that battery electric vehicles (BEVs) will increase in market share, but internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV) will continue to dominate the passenger vehicle stock in the next 20 years under most scenarios. Improving ICEV efficiency can play a critical role in meeting GHG regulations in the near- and medium-term. BEVs, whose GHG emissions are highly dependent on the source of electricity generation, will play an essential role in the long-term as the electric grid becomes cleaner. In summary, transportation policies should be technology agnostic and consider emissions based on the whole life cycle. Moreover, a holistic approach to reducing transportation GHG emissions is key to achieving global environmental goals.

Ou, Shawn↗
DOE OSTI2024

Non-Rare Earth Magnesium Bumper Beams

Magna will team with the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) to develop Shear Assisted Processing and Extrusion (ShAPE™) of rectangular and multi-zoned extrusion profiles using non-RE Mg. It is envisioned that the ShAPE™ process, developed during this project for non-circular profiles, will serve as the foundation for fabrication of full-scale bumper beams of the future where near net-shapes are extruded directly from castings in a single step, without the need for costly rare earth additives. In this project, the ShAPE™ process will be developed for a rectangular profile measuring 1” x 2” with a 0.06” wall thickness. Successful extrusion of rectangular cross sections is a critical step along the path toward profiles with multiple zones. With the process established for a rectangular profile, the project will then make advancements toward multi-zoned cross sections. A magnesium alloy bumper beam offers a 35% weight savings compared to aluminum alloys and 60% compared to high strength steels. The bumper beam was chosen as the first component to target because the geometry can have a fairly simple 0.6-0.12 inch wall/web thickness, generally compatible with PNNL’s knowledge base and equipment capability surrounding ShAPE™. The bumper component offers commercial value by providing mass reduction in the front of the vehicle along with ride and handling benefit. PNNL has demonstrated the ability to ShAPE™ process non-RE Mg tubing with high strength, ductility and energy absorption. It has been shown that ShAPE™ extruded ZK60 and Mg2Si tubing with 0.30 inch diameter and 0.03 inch wall thickness have similar energy absorption to AA6061-T6. This is due to significant grain refinement, breakdown and dispersion of second phases, and the ability to eliminate anisotropy in compressive/tensile strength by aligning texture 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Scalability of the ShAPE™ process has been demonstrated in ZK60 by fabricating 2.0 inch diameter tubing with 0.06 and 0.12 inch wall thicknesses having concentricity as tight as 1.3%. These tubes exhibit an ultimate tensile strength of 260-300 MPa and room temperature ductility of >20% parallel, perpendicular and 45 degrees to the extrusion axis. Aluminum bumpers represent approximately 54% of the NA light vehicle market. If the research effort is successful, providing a 30% mass reduction at equal cost relative to aluminum bumpers, it is anticipated that 25% market penetration would be realized over the next 5 year and 50% market share by 2030. 100% of the aluminum automotive bumpers are sourced from the tier network, providing resourcing opportunity based on equal performance, reduced mass and cost equivalent lower than aluminum bumpers. Due to the relatively low vehicle content, magnesium components are currently shredded and 100% recycled with aluminum content in the US, presenting a positive life cycle impact.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Quantifying policy gaps for achieving the net-zero GHG emissions target in the U.S. light-duty vehicle market through electrification

The U.S. light-duty vehicle (LDV) industry, a major greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting sector, is embracing decarbonization. Considering only electrification pathways, this study uses publicly-available tools – MA3T and VISION on vehicle market penetration, fleet accounting and life-cycle analysis to quantify the policy gaps for LDVs to achieve the net-zero GHG emissions target in nine vehicle penetration cases under two electricity mix scenarios, including the U.S. administration's decarbonization strategy – 100% clean electricity by 2035. The MA3T model is a multinomial discrete choice model for market share projection by vehicle technology, and the VISION is a vehicle stocks and GHG emissions projection model by using vehicle and travel characteristics. This study projects the impacts of technology and policy enforcement on shaping the dynamics and decarbonization of the LDV market. Additionally, achieving the expected improvement of battery technology and charging infrastructure is critical but can only reduce the 2050 GHG emissions to 48–54% of the 2020 level under the electricity renewable mix scenario. It is almost impossible to achieve a 100% battery electric vehicle stock by 2050 and the 2050 net-zero target in the LDV industry unless ban of internal combustion engine technology is implemented starting in 2035 and under the 2035 100% clean electricity scenario. These extreme conditions also sacrifice most from the consumer welfare perspective. A greater policy forcing intensity accelerates plug-in electric vehicle penetration, while with declining marginal effect and reduced consumer welfare. Among the investigated policy scenarios, the policy forcing intensity equivalent to a fuel tax of $1–2 per gasoline gallon reduces the most GHG emissions while keeping a positive consumer welfare.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Advanced Airfoil Cooling Schemes to Increase Efficiency in Gas Turbines for Combined Heat and Power Applications

This report describes a three-year interdisciplinary effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy/Advanced Manufacturing Office (EERE/AMO) to promote market penetration of combined heat and power (CHP) technologies. Prior studies have shown the technical potential for CHP in the United States is much larger than the current deployment of CHP systems. A large portion of the technical potential CHP market aligns with small (<20 MWe) gas turbines. CHP systems are an attractive alternative to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. For example, CHP systems can reduce GHG emissions by 30–40% relative to a conventional boiler and power configuration. These GHG emission reductions are “avoided emissions” which means no CO 2 separation or sequestration is required. This report describes an effort to use additive manufacturing (AM) technologies and advanced airfoil cooling designs to increase the turbine inlet temperature by 100 °C for small gas turbines typically used in CHP systems. At the beginning of this effort, baseline performance data for small gas turbines was not available, and the potential benefits of cooling system improvements were not quantified in the available literature.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reversible Solid Oxide Fuel Cell Systems for Energy Storage and Hydrogen Production

FuelCell Energy (FCE) studied the performance, design, and economics of a reversible solid-oxide fuel cell/electrolyzer integrated with a natural gas-based electricity generation plant and used as an energy storage system. Increased market penetration of renewable energy is challenging for operators of fossilbased plants which are not suited for quick turndown and ramp-up. Process simulations studies show that with utilization of waste heat from the power plant, a high roundtrip efficiency (RTE) around 70% is possible, providing excellent market potential for this energy storage technology, potentially providing improved economics and lifetime for such power plant. The market potential and economics as a function of production volume are analyzed in detail. FCE is continuing the development and commercialization of its solid oxide technology.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2023

Decarbonization of Liquid Heating Fuels

Annually, residential and commercial buildings use about 5 billion gallons (18.9 billion liters) of distillate fuel for space and water heating. There is considerable interest in decarbonizing these markets through a combination of heat pumps and a future, carbon-free grid. An alternate approach that offers rapid and cost effective decarbonization involves substitution of low-carbon biofuels for fossil fuels within this market. Heating fuel marketers in North America and Europe are aggressively moving to achieve market penetration of biofuels. Processes for this include fuel specification standards, development of manufacturer-approved burners and all system components, development of standards for equipment listing, installation code changes, and generation of performance data. There has been considerable progress in these areas and each of these are reviewed in this paper. Currently, the most important biofuel for this market is biodiesel with a U.S. production capacity of 2.4 billion gallons (9.1 billion liters) and approximately a 75% reduction in GHG emissions. The biodiesel industry has stated a vision for dramatic increases in biodiesel production over the next decades. Fuel and equipment standards are in place to enable use of biodiesel blends to 20% and this blend is now widely used. Standard changes to extend this to as high as 100% biodiesel are nearing completion. Several states have implemented requirements for minimum levels of biodiesel in heating oil with these levels increasing over time.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Pilot Scale Testing of the Hydrophobic-Hydrophilic Separation Process to Produce Value-Added Products from Waste Coal

The primary objective of this project was to demonstrate the technical and economic feasibility of using the hydrophobic-hydrophilic separation (HHS) process to produce high-purity, value-added clean coal that could serve as feedstock for specialty carbon products from waste coal. An existing one-skid (i.e., the entire unit fits on a single tractor-trailer) HHS pilot-scale facility was used to process bituminous and anthracite waste coals to produce: 1) a clean coal containing less than 5% ash (super-clean) and 2) another containing less than 1.5% ash (ultra-clean), all of which contain single-digit moistures. Sufficient quantities of these products were to be generated to permit detailed evaluations by potential customers producing or developing new, high-value market applications. In addition, the project included the evaluation of several process improvements to reduce the capital and operating costs for a commercial HHS plant. A final objective was to complete an economic analysis, market-penetration analysis, and technology-gap analysis of the HHS technology and its products.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluating the Impacts of Autonomous Electric Vehicles Adoption on Vehicle Miles Traveled and CO2 Emissions

Autonomous electric vehicles (AEVs) can potentially revolutionize the transportation landscape, offering a safer, contact-free, easily accessible, and more eco-friendly mode of travel. Prior to the market uptake of AEVs, it is critical to understand the consumer segments that are most likely to adopt these vehicles. Beyond market adoption, it is also important to quantify the impact of AEVs on broader transportation systems and the environment, such as impacts on the annual vehicle miles traveled (VMT) and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In this pilot study, using survey data, a statistical model correlating AEV adoption intention and socioeconomic and built environment attributes was estimated, and a sensitivity analysis was conducted to understand the importance of factors impacting AEV adoption. We found that the market segments range from early adopters who are wealthy, technologically savvy, and relatively young to non-adopters who are more cautious to new technologies. This is followed by a synthetic population microsimulation of market penetration for the San Francisco Bay Area. With five household vehicle replacement scenarios, we assessed the annual VMT and tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions change associated with vehicle replacement. It is found that adopting AEVs can potentially reduce more than 5 megatons of CO2 yearly, which is approximately 30% of the total CO2 emitted by internal combustion engine (ICE) cars in the region.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030

Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sustainable hydrogen manufacturing via renewable-integrated intensified process for refueling stations

The widescale consumer adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) is currently hindered by the high cost of small-scale hydrogen generation and the lack of extensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Natural gas-based hydrogen is cheaper when produced in large volumes but is also associated with high CO 2 emissions. To counter these challenges, we propose a hybrid approach where both natural gas and renewables are integrated in a synergistic manner using a dynamic process intensification technology that can be deployed on-site for meeting local demands of refueling stations. The technology is based on sorption enhanced steam methane reforming (SE-SMR) that utilizes a combination of reaction with in-situ CO 2 adsorption for enhancing process modularity, productivity and efficiency thereby outperforming conventional SMR at small scale. We develop a mixed integer linear programming (MILP)-based optimization framework for simultaneous design and scheduling of the SE-SMR process. The simultaneous optimization provides a synergistic combination whereby the renewables allow sustainable hydrogen manufacturing and the dynamic SE-SMR allows optimal use of the intermittency of the renewables. The U.S. nationwide analysis indicates that for futuristic renewable prices and a hydrogen production capacity of 2 ton/day, hydrogen can be produced at 50% less cost compared to the current cost of small-scale hydrogen generation. Finally, the city-wise analysis with varying hydrogen demand shows that even with just 5% HFCEV market penetration level, hydrogen production cost less than $3/kg can be obtained at small scales across the United States with even cheaper hydrogen for large cities.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing the physical design and layout of a resilient wind, solar, and storage hybrid power plant

We report as wind and solar technologies improve and their costs decrease, the share of power produced by these sources will increase. As the market penetration increases, these power sources will need to provide grid services, such as dispatchability, in addition to providing energy. One way to reduce variability, provide higher quality power to the grid, and address local grid stability issues is through colocating wind and solar power plants. In addition to operating reliably during normal operating conditions, in scenarios with high penetrations of renewable generation, it is important that these hybrid plants can withstand production disruptions and continue to supply power despite prolonged resource reduction, extreme weather events, or other disruptions. In this paper, we present a methodology to optimize a wind-solar-battery hybrid power plant down to the component level that is resilient against production disruptions and that can continually produce some minimum required power. We introduce the models and assumptions we used to simulate a hybrid power plant as well as the design variable parameterization and specific methods we used to optimize the plant. We demonstrate the performance of our method by comparing a plant optimized for different objectives, generation outage durations, minimum power requirements, and power purchase agreements. Although the plant design is sensitive to model parameters and various other assumptions, our results demonstrate some of the optimal designs that occur in different scenarios and what one should expect when designing a hybrid wind-solar-storage power plant.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating advanced nuclear fission technologies for future decarbonized power grids

Advanced nuclear fission, which encompasses various innovative nuclear reactor designs, could contribute to the decarbonization of the United States electricity sector. However, little is known about how cost-competitive these reactors would be compared to other technologies, or about which aspects of their designs offer the most value to a decarbonized power grid. We employ an electricity system optimization model and a case study of a decarbonized U.S. Eastern Interconnection circa 2050 to generate initial indicators of future economic value for advanced reactors and the sensitivity of future value to various design parameters, the availability of competing technologies, and the underlying policy environment. These results can inform long-term cost targets and guide near-term innovation priorities, investments, and reactor design decisions. We find that advanced reactors should cost $\$5.7$–$\$7.3$/W to gain an initial market share (assuming 30 year asset life and 3.5 %–6.5 % real weighted average cost of capital), while those that include thermal storage in their designs can cost up to $\$6.0$/W–$\$7.7$/W (not including cost of storage). Since the marginal value of advanced fission reactors declines as market penetration increases, break-even costs fall ~32 % at 100 GW of cumulative capacity and ~51 % at 300 GW. Additionally, policies that provide investment tax credits for nuclear energy create the most favorable environment for advanced nuclear fission. In conclusion, these findings can inform near-term resource allocation decisions by stakeholders, innovators and investors working in the energy technology sector.

Capacity expansion↗