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At least 19 records

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗

Design Data Collection with Skylab Microwave Radiometer-Scatterometer S-193, Volume 1

The author has identified the following significant results. Observations with S-193 have provided radar design information for systems to be flown on spacecraft, but only at 13.9 GHz and for land areas over the United States and Brazil plus a few other areas of the world for which this kind of analysis was not made. Observations only extended out to about 50 deg angle of incidence. The value of a sensor with such a gross resolution for most overland resource and status monitoring systems seems marginal, with the possible exception of monitoring soil moisture and major vegetation variations. The complementary nature of the scatterometer and radiometer systems was demonstrated by the correlation analysis. Although radiometers must have spatial resolutions dictated by antenna size, radars can use synthetic aperture techniques to achieve much finer resolutions. Multiplicity of modes in the S-193 sensors complicated both the system development and its employment. An attempt was made in the design of the S-193 to arrange optimum integration times for each angle and type of measurement. This unnecessarily complicated the design of the instrument, since the gains in precision achieved in this way were marginal. Either a software-controllable integration time or a set of only two or three integration times would have been better.

Moore, R. K.↗

Soil Moisture Active Passive Mission L4_SM Data Product Assessment (Version 2 Validated Release)

During the post-launch SMAP calibration and validation (Cal/Val) phase there are two objectives for each science data product team: 1) calibrate, verify, and improve the performance of the science algorithm, and 2) validate the accuracy of the science data product as specified in the science requirements and according to the Cal/Val schedule. This report provides an assessment of the SMAP Level 4 Surface and Root Zone Soil Moisture Passive (L4_SM) product specifically for the product's public Version 2 validated release scheduled for 29 April 2016. The assessment of the Version 2 L4_SM data product includes comparisons of SMAP L4_SM soil moisture estimates with in situ soil moisture observations from core validation sites and sparse networks. The assessment further includes a global evaluation of the internal diagnostics from the ensemble-based data assimilation system that is used to generate the L4_SM product. This evaluation focuses on the statistics of the observation-minus-forecast (O-F) residuals and the analysis increments. Together, the core validation site comparisons and the statistics of the assimilation diagnostics are considered primary validation methodologies for the L4_SM product. Comparisons against in situ measurements from regional-scale sparse networks are considered a secondary validation methodology because such in situ measurements are subject to up-scaling errors from the point-scale to the grid cell scale of the data product. Based on the limited set of core validation sites, the wide geographic range of the sparse network sites, and the global assessment of the assimilation diagnostics, the assessment presented here meets the criteria established by the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites for Stage 2 validation and supports the validated release of the data. An analysis of the time average surface and root zone soil moisture shows that the global pattern of arid and humid regions are captured by the L4_SM estimates. Results from the core validation site comparisons indicate that "Version 2" of the L4_SM data product meets the self-imposed L4_SM accuracy requirement, which is formulated in terms of the ubRMSE: the RMSE (Root Mean Square Error) after removal of the long-term mean difference. The overall ubRMSE of the 3-hourly L4_SM surface soil moisture at the 9 km scale is 0.035 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The corresponding ubRMSE for L4_SM root zone soil moisture is 0.024 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. Both of these metrics are comfortably below the 0.04 cubic meters per cubic meter requirement. The L4_SM estimates are an improvement over estimates from a model-only SMAP Nature Run version 4 (NRv4), which demonstrates the beneficial impact of the SMAP brightness temperature data. L4_SM surface soil moisture estimates are consistently more skillful than NRv4 estimates, although not by a statistically significant margin. The lack of statistical significance is not surprising given the limited data record available to date. Root zone soil moisture estimates from L4_SM and NRv4 have similar skill. Results from comparisons of the L4_SM product to in situ measurements from nearly 400 sparse network sites corroborate the core validation site results. The instantaneous soil moisture and soil temperature analysis increments are within a reasonable range and result in spatially smooth soil moisture analyses. The O-F residuals exhibit only small biases on the order of 1-3 degrees Kelvin between the (re-scaled) SMAP brightness temperature observations and the L4_SM model forecast, which indicates that the assimilation system is largely unbiased. The spatially averaged time series standard deviation of the O-F residuals is 5.9 degrees Kelvin, which reduces to 4.0 degrees Kelvin for the observation-minus-analysis (O-A) residuals, reflecting the impact of the SMAP observations on the L4_SM system. Averaged globally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals is close to unity, which would suggest that the magnitude of the modeled errors approximately reflects that of the actual errors. The assessment report also notes several limitations of the "Version 2" L4_SM data product and science algorithm calibration that will be addressed in future releases. Regionally, the time series standard deviation of the normalized O-F residuals deviates considerably from unity, which indicates that the L4_SM assimilation algorithm either over- or under-estimates the actual errors that are present in the system. Planned improvements include revised land model parameters, revised error parameters for the land model and the assimilated SMAP observations, and revised surface meteorological forcing data for the operational period and underlying climatological data. Moreover, a refined analysis of the impact of SMAP observations will be facilitated by the construction of additional variants of the model-only reference data. Nevertheless, the “Version 2” validated release of the L4_SM product is sufficiently mature and of adequate quality for distribution to and use by the larger science and application communities.

SMAP L4_SM↗

Determining soil moisture from geosynchronous satellite infrared data - A feasibility study

Numerical modelling results are reported from a pilot study investigating the feasibility of developing a technique for daily soil moisture measurement throughout the world, based on GOES infrared data. A detailed one-dimensional boundary layer-surface-soil model was used in order to determine which physical parameters observable from GOES are most sensitive to soil moisture, and which are most effected by seasonal changes, atmospheric effects and vegetation cover. The results of the sensitivity test show that the mid-morning differential of surface temperature with respect to absorbed solar radiation is optimally sensitive to soil moisture. A case study comparing model results with GOES infrared data confirms the sensitivity of this parameter to soil moisture and also confirms the applicability of the model to predicting area-averaged surface temperature changes. Model measurements of soil moisture are expected to be most accurate for dry or marginal agricultural areas where drought is common. Sources of error, including the advection of clouds, are examined and methods of minimizing error are discussed.

Wetzel, P. J.↗

Geologic setting of Apollo 16

Prior to the Apollo 16 mission, the materials of the Cayley Plains and the Descartes Mountains were thought to be mostly of volcanic origin. Rock and soil samples from these regions strongly suggest, however, that they may be products of multiring basin forming impacts, although minor local volcanism is not precluded. The smooth planar surfaces may have been formed initially by Imbrium ejecta which flowed into topographic lows at the distal margins of the lineated Fra Mauro ejecta. It is emphasized, however, that the rocks and soils returned from the Apollo 16 site cannot necessarily be considered representative of the lunar crust in the Descartes region from which they were collected.

Hodges, C. A.↗

Simulation of the Microwave Emission of Multi-layered Snowpacks Using the Dense Media Radiative Transfer Theory: the DMRT-ML Model

DMRT-ML is a physically based numerical model designed to compute the thermal microwave emission of a given snowpack. Its main application is the simulation of brightness temperatures at frequencies in the range 1-200 GHz similar to those acquired routinely by spacebased microwave radiometers. The model is based on the Dense Media Radiative Transfer (DMRT) theory for the computation of the snow scattering and extinction coefficients and on the Discrete Ordinate Method (DISORT) to numerically solve the radiative transfer equation. The snowpack is modeled as a stack of multiple horizontal snow layers and an optional underlying interface representing the soil or the bottom ice. The model handles both dry and wet snow conditions. Such a general design allows the model to account for a wide range of snow conditions. Hitherto, the model has been used to simulate the thermal emission of the deep firn on ice sheets, shallow snowpacks overlying soil in Arctic and Alpine regions, and overlying ice on the large icesheet margins and glaciers. DMRT-ML has thus been validated in three very different conditions: Antarctica, Barnes Ice Cap (Canada) and Canadian tundra. It has been recently used in conjunction with inverse methods to retrieve snow grain size from remote sensing data. The model is written in Fortran90 and available to the snow remote sensing community as an open-source software. A convenient user interface is provided in Python.

snowpacks↗

Dynamic Modeling of the SMAP Rotating Flexible Antenna

Dynamic model development in ADAMS for the SMAP project is explained: The main objective of the dynamic models are for pointing error assessment, and the control/stability margin requirement verifications

freeze/thaw state↗

An investigation of volcanic depressions. Part 4: Origin of Hole-in-the-ground, a maar in Central Oregon

Hole-in-the-Ground, a volcanic explosion crater, located in central Oregon is described. The morphology of the soil and rocks and the topography of the crater indicate the sequential happenings during the eruption. Geophysical measurements also indicate a domical intrusion below the crater floor, extending upward as a ring dike around the margins of the crater. The volume of ejecta was determined for four major eruptions. Varied analyses were made of the pyroclastic debris, rocks, cinders, and soil.

Lorenz, V.↗

Measurements of water vapor in Mars' antarctic

A complete Mars year of measurements of atmospheric water vapor in the south arctic have been obtained from the Viking Orbiters. Analysis of the observations indicates that, except for the south remnant cap, the southern hemisphere of Mars is devoid of any substantial reservoirs of water in contact with the atmosphere, and that, in the summer time, the top layer of soil is desiccated. Small amounts of water ice are incorporated into the annual CO2 cap; this water is released at the cap margin when it retreats in the spring. The first global dust storm resulted in heating of the south arctic atmosphere and a transport of water in from the equatorial region. The second global dust storm had a negligible effect on atmospheric water vapor; the dust contained little water.

Davies, D. W.↗

Quantitative analysis of planetary reflectance spectra with principal components analysis

A technique is presented for quantitative analysis of planetary reflectance spectra as mixtures of particles on microscopic and macroscopic scales using principal components analysis. This technique allows for determination of the endmembers being mixed, their abundance, and the scale of mixing, as well as other physical parameters. Eighteen lunar telescopic reflectance spectra of the Copernicus crater region, from 600 nm to 1800 nm in wavelength, are modeled in terms of five likely endmembers: mare basalt, mature mare soil, anorthosite, mature highland soil, and clinopyroxene. These endmembers were chosen from a similar analysis of 92 lunar soil and rock samples. The models fit the data to within 2 percent rms. It is found that the goodness of fit is marginally better for intimate mixing over macroscopic mixing.

Johnson, P. E.↗

Estimating Snow Water Storage in North America Using CLM4, DART, and Snow Radiance Data Assimilation

This paper addresses continental-scale snow estimates in North America using a recently developed snow radiance assimilation (RA) system. A series of RA experiments with the ensemble adjustment Kalman filter are conducted by assimilating the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth Observing System (AMSR-E) brightness temperature T(sub B) at 18.7- and 36.5-GHz vertical polarization channels. The overall RA performance in estimating snow depth for North America is improved by simultaneously updating the Community Land Model, version 4 (CLM4), snow/soil states and radiative transfer model (RTM) parameters involved in predicting T(sub B) based on their correlations with the prior T(sub B) (i.e., rule-based RA), although degradations are also observed. The RA system exhibits a more mixed performance for snow cover fraction estimates. Compared to the open-loop run (0.171m RMSE), the overall snow depth estimates are improved by 1.6% (0.168m RMSE) in the rule-based RA whereas the default RA (without a rule) results in a degradation of 3.6% (0.177mRMSE). Significant improvement of the snow depth estimates in the rule-based RA as observed for tundra snow class (11.5%, p < 0.05) and bare soil land-cover type (13.5%, p < 0.05). However, the overall improvement is not significant (p = 0.135) because snow estimates are degraded or marginally improved for other snow classes and land covers, especially the taiga snow class and forest land cover (7.1% and 7.3% degradations, respectively). The current RA system needs to be further refined to enhance snow estimates for various snow types and forested regions.

snow depth↗

HCMM: Soil moisture in relation to geologic structure and lithology, northern California

The author has identified the following significant results. Empirical observations on the ground and examination of aerial color IR photographs indicate that in grassland terrain, the vegetation overlying sandstone tends to become less vigorous sooner in the late spring season than does the area overlain by an adjacent shale unit. The reverse relationship obtains in the fall. These relationships are thought to be a reflection of the relative porosity of each of the units and hence of their ability to retain or lose soil moisture. A comparison of the optically enlarged day and nite IR imagery of the Late Mesozoic interbedded sandstone and shale units along the western margin of the Sacramento Valley, California, taken at seasonally critical times of the year (late spring/early summer and late fall/early winter) reveals subtle seasonal variations of graytone which tend to support the empirical observations after consideration of Sun angle and azimuth, and the internal consistency of the data on each set of satellite imagery.

Rich, E. I.↗

Monitoring sediment transfer processes on the desert margin

LANDSAT Thematic Mapper and Multispectral Scanner data have been used to construct change detection images for three playas in south-central Tunisia. Change detection images have been used to analyze changes in surface reflectance and absorption between wet and dry season (intra-annual change) and between different years (inter-annual change). Change detection imagery has been used to examine geomorphological changes on the playas. Changes in geomorphological phenomena are interpreted from changes in soil and foliar moisture levels, differences in reflectances between different salt and sediments and the spatial expression of geomorphological features. Intra-annual change phenomena that can be detected from multidate imagery are changes in surface moisture, texture and chemical composition, vegetation cover and the extent of aeolian activity. Inter-annual change phenomena are divisible into those restricted to marginal playa facies (sedimentation from sheetwash and alluvial fans, erosion from surface runoff and cliff retreat) and these are found in central playa facies which are related to the internal redistribution of water, salt and sediment.

Millington, Andrew C.↗

Emissivity of Frozen Regions Retrieved from Aquarius Measurements

The land emissivity model used in the Aquarius data processing has been updated for the latest data release (V5.0). In order to improve the estimates of the brightness temperatures of frozen regions, the new model uses values of surface emissivity that have been estimated from the Aquarius measurements averaged over the entire duration of the mission. The retrieved emissivities depend on the geographic location, but they depend only marginally on time, temperature and snow cover.

Aquarius↗

Climate Induced Birch Mortality in Trans-Baikal Lake Region, Siberia

The Trans-Baikal (or Zabailkal'e) region includes the forest-steppe ecotones south and east of Lake Baikal in Russia and has experienced drought for several years. The decline and mortality of birch (Betula pendula) stands within the forest-steppe ecotone Trans-Baikal region was studied based on a temporal series of satellite data, ground measurements, and tree ring analysis. During the first decade of the 21st century birch stands decline and mortality were observed on )about 5% of the total area of stands within our 1250 km(exp 2 study area. Birch forest decline and mortality occurs mainly at the margins of stands, within the forest-steppe ecotone on slopes with direct insolation. During the first decade of the 21st century summer (June-August) precipitation was about 25% below normal. Soil water content measurements were lowest within dead stands and highest within healthy stands and intermediate within damaged stands. Drought impact on stands was amplified by an increase in summer air temperatures (+0.9 C) in comparison with the previous decade. Tree ring data of ''surviving'' and ''dead'' tree groups showed a positive correlation with summer/annual precipitation and negative correlation with summer air temperatures. Temperature and precipitation extreme anomalies tend to occur in the region with a period of about 27 years. The observed anomaly was the most severe since the beginning of meteorological observations in the year 1900. Data for the other sites showed a positive climate impact on the growth and expansion of Siberian forests. That is, the same species (B. pendula) showed considerable increase (1.4 times both in height and stem volume) during 20th-21st centuries as temperature increased but precipitation remained at adequate levels.

Forest die-off↗

K/Ar dating of lunar soils. IV - Orange glass from 74220 and agglutinates from 14259 and 14163

Total fusion Ar-40 - A-39 analyses of orange glass from lunar soil 74220 combined with the sums of earlier stepwise heating data by other workers have yielded a precise K/Ar isochron with a slope corresponding to an age of 3.66 + or - 0.03 G.y. for the orange glass. The result is in marginal agreement with Huneke's (1978) age of 3.60 + or - 0.04 G.y. for 74220 glass. The Ar systematics in the agglutinates from 14259 and 14163 are dominated by volume correlated argon. Step-wise heating analyses yield data which define experimentally reproducible linear arrays in Ar-40/Ar-36 vs. K-40/Ar-36 diagrams. The slopes of these arrays correspond formally to very old ages, but it is not clear, however, that such ages have any physical significance.

Alexander, E. C., Jr.↗

Challenges and opportunities for enhancing food security and greenhouse gas mitigation in smallholder farming in sub-Saharan Africa. A review

Smallholder farmers struggle to achieve food security in many countries of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). It is urgently required to find appropriate practices for enhancing crop production while avoiding large increases in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in SSA. This review aims to identify common smallholder farming practices for enhancing crop production, to assess how these affect GHG emissions and to identify strategies that not only enhance crop production but also mitigate GHG emissions in SSA. To increase crop production and ensure food security, smallholder farmers usually expand agricultural land, develop water harvesting and irrigation techniques and increase cropping intensity and fertilizer use. These practices may result in changing carbon stocks and GHG emissions, potentially creating trade-offs between food security and GHG mitigation. Agricultural land expansion at the expense of forests is the most dominant source of GHG emissions in SSA. While water harvesting and irrigation can increase soil organic carbon, they can trigger GHG emissions. Increasing cropping intensity can enhance the decomposition of soil organic matter, thus releasing carbon dioxide. Increasing nitrogen fertilizer use can enhance soil organic carbon, but also leads to increasing nitrous oxide emissions. An integrated land, water and nutrient management strategy is necessary to enhance crop production and mitigate GHG emissions. Among the most relevant strategies found, agroforestry practices in degraded and marginal lands could replace expanding agricultural croplands. In addition, water management, via adequate rainwater harvesting and irrigation techniques, together with appropriate nutrient management should be considered. Therefore, a land-water-nutrient nexus (LWNN) approach will enable an integrated and sustainable solution to increasing crop production and mitigating GHG emissions. Various technical, economic and policy barriers hinder implementing the LWNN approach on the ground, but these may be overcome through developing appropriate technologies, disseminating them through farmer to farmer approaches and developing specific policies to address smallholder land tenure issues and motivate long-term investment.

Sub-Sahara Africa↗

Mapping Recent Coastal Shoreline Changes in Southwestern Alaska Using Landsat 8 Satellite Imagery

Coastal communities in Alaska are frequently subjected to storm surges that erode shorelines and riverbanks, which increases flood risks around critical village infrastructure. Coastal erosion in western Alaska may be occurring currently at rates as high as 15 m per year, but the region has not been mapped in enough detail to accurately assess recent shoreline and inland riverbank erosion rates. To update the mapping of changes in all of SWAlaska’s coastal margins, Landsat 8 satellite imagery was analyzed to detect trends in the normalized difference water index collected from 2013 to 2023. The normalized difference water index values range from -1 to 1, with negative values indicating majority land that includes soil and live vegetation cover and positive values indicating majority water coverage. Results showed marked coastal shoreline erosion at Chagvan Bay, Hagemeister Island, and Nanvak Bay over the past decade. Additional locations of recent bank erosion were detected on the Kuskokwim River, from its upriver mouth past the city of Bethel. Riverbank erosion was also detected in northern Nushagak Bay, and extensive surface-wetting trends around wetlands and riverbanks were detected near the village of Togiak. Moreover, many villages on the west coast of Alaska and in the Kuskokwim River Delta have recently documented climate change case studies highlighting bank erosion, indicating that a variety of related ecological disturbances are ongoing across the region.

Imagery↗