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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning (ML) Classifier to Assist Metadata Creation

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center is responsible for the timely collection, archival, and curation of science data products. These products are freely available through an online data repository. Metadata creation is paramount for scientific users to find and access over seven petabytes of atmospheric science data. The hierarchical metadata structure allows users to search for information at both broad and narrow levels. This project aims to leverage 30 years’ worth of manually created metadata to enable machine predictions of broad-term classifications from narrow-term descriptions. These classification predictions would assist metadata coordinators with their term selections. This paper discusses the cleaning and preprocessing of the training data, the pipeline developed to determine the best model for this task, and the creation of an API metadata classifier for ARM measurement metadata. Our results show that the Linear Support Vector Classification (LinearSVC) algorithm, along with the Term Frequency – Inverse Document Frequency (TF-IDF) vectorizer, is well-suited for our multi-class classification task. Lengthier input training data led to better results, and artificial balancing was unnecessary for this particular use case. This predictive classifier enhances efficiency in metadata creation, as well as supports greater consistency and accuracy in metadata tagging.

Collier, Hannah [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341284292)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning model inputs, outputs, and scripts associated with “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions”

NOTE: The manuscript associated with this data package is currently in review. The data may be revised based on reviewer feedback. Upon manuscript acceptance, this data package will be updated with the final dataset and additional metadata. This data package is associated with the manuscript “Artificial intelligence-guided iterations between observations and modeling significantly improve environmental predictions” (Malhotra et al., in prep). This effort was designed following ICON (integrated, coordinated, open, and networked) principles to facilitate a model-experiment (ModEx) iteration approach, leveraging crowdsourced sampling across the contiguous United States (CONUS). New machine learning models were created every month to guide sampling locations. Data from the resulting samples were used to test and rebuild the machine learning models for the next round of sampling guidance. Associated sediment and water geochemistry and in situ sensor data can be found at https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1923689, https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1729719, and https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/datasets/doi:10.15485/1603775. This data package is associated with two GitHub repositories found at https://github.com/parallelworks/dynamic-learning-rivers and https://github.com/WHONDRS-Hub/ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. In addition to this readme, this data package also includes two file-level metadata (FLMD) files that describes each file and two data dictionaries (DD) that describe all column/row headers and variable definitions. This data package consists of two main folders (1) dynamic-learning-rivers and (2) ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript which contain snapshots of the associated GitHub repositories. The input data, output data, and machine learning models used to guide sampling locations are within dynamic-learning-rivers. The folder is organized into five top-level directories: (1) “input_data” holds the training data for the ML models; (2) “ml_models” holds machine learning (ML) models trained on the data in “input_data”; (3) “examples” contains files for direct experimentation with the machine learning model, including scripts for setting up “hindcast” run; (4) “scripts” contains data preprocessing and postprocessing scripts and intermediate results specific to this data set that bookend the ML workflow; and (5) “output_data” holds the overall results of the ML model on that branch. Each trained ML model resides on its own branch in the repository; this means that inputs and outputs can be different branch-to-branch. There is also one hidden directory “.github/workflows”. This hidden directory contains information for how to run the ML workflow as an end-to-end automated GitHub Action but it is not needed for reusing the ML models archived here. Please see the top-level README.md in the GitHub repository for more details on the automation. The scripts and data used to create figures in the manuscript are within ICON-ModEx_Open_Manuscript. The folder is organized into four folders which contain the scripts, data, and pdf for each figure. Within the “fig-model-score-evolution” folder, there is a folder called “intermediate_branch_data” which contains some intermediate files pulled from dynamic-learning-rivers and reorganized to easily integrate into the workflows. NOTE: THIS FOLDER INCLUDES THE FILES AT THE POINT OF PAPER SUBMISSION. IT WILL BE UPDATED ONCE THE PAPER IS ACCEPTED WITH ANY REVISIONS AND WILL INCLUDE A DD/FLMD AT THAT POINT. We thank the United States Forest Service, Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife, Washington Department of Natural Resources, Cowiche Canyon Conservatory, Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission (Scientific Research Permit #210901), and the Confederated Tribes and Bands of the Yakama Nation for access to field locations where the samples labeled “SSS” were collected. We also thank the Yakama Nation Tribal Council and Yakama Nation Fisheries for working with us to facilitate sample collection and optimization of data usage according to their values and worldview. WHONDRS consortium members were asked to provide any acknowledgments for the collection of samples labeled “CM” and the following is a list of acknowledgments that were submitted with their corresponding Site IDs: (MART) Research activities were conducted in part on the Wind River Experimental Forest within the Gifford Pinchot National Forest; (MP- 100379) Philadelphia is part of Lenapehoking, the ancestral homelands of the Lenape peoples; (MP-102398) Land surveyed is the ancestral homelands of the Nookhose'iinenno (Arapaho), Tsis tsis'tas (Cheyenne), and Nuuchu (Ute); (MP-100749 and MP- 100747) Georgia Coastal Ecosystem LTER, OCE-1832178; (SP-70 and SP-72) Eastern Shoshone, Shoshone-Bannock; (MP- 102944) Funded by Oregon Watershed Enhancement Board. On the traditional lands of the Confederated Tribes of the Siletz, Confederated Tribes of the Grand Rhonde, and the Clatsop-Nehalem Confederated Tribe; (MP- 100607) Holiday Creek is located on the traditional territory of the Monacan Indian Nation; (SP-45) Lafayette Blue Springs State Park; (MP-102420) NSF DEB-2016749; (MP-100019) New Hampshire Agriculture Experiment Station; (SP-35) Rayonier (land owner; https://www.rayonier.com/); (MP- 101276) US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research, Subsurface Biogeochemical Research, Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 103224) Watershed Dynamics and Evolution SFA at ORNL; (MP- 101584) Traditional lands of the Oceti Sakowin (Dakota, Lakota, Nakoda) and Anishinaabe Peoples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Discovering Strong Gravitational Lenses in the Dark Energy Survey with Interactive Machine Learning and Crowd-sourced Inspection with Space Warps

We conduct a search for strong gravitational lenses in the Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 6 imaging data. We implement a pre-trained Vision Transformer (ViT) for our machine learning (ML) architecture and adopt interactive machine learning to construct a training sample with multiple classes to address common types of false positives. Our ML model reduces ∼236 million DES cutout images to 22,564 targets of interest, including ∼85% of previously reported galaxy–galaxy lens candidates discovered in DES. These targets were visually inspected by citizen scientists, who ruled out ∼90% as false positives. Of the remaining 2618 candidates, 149 were expert-classified as “definite” lenses and 516 as “probable” lenses, for a total of 665 systems, with 147 of these candidates being newly identified. Additionally, we trained a second ViT to find double-source plane lens systems, finding at least one double-source system. Our main ViT excels at identifying galaxy–galaxy lenses, consistently assigning high scores to candidates with high expert assessments. The top 800 ViT-scored images include ∼100 of our “definite” lens candidates. This selection is an order of magnitude higher in purity than previous convolutional neural-network-based lens searches and demonstrates the feasibility of applying our methodology for discovering large samples of lenses in future surveys.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Data for A Hybrid Biophysical-Machine Learning Framework for Diurnal Surface Energy Flux Estimation Using Proximal Sensing

Thermal infrared-based remote sensing of surface energy fluxes has traditionally relied on high spatial resolution satellite data with revisit frequencies on the order of weeks. In this study, we evaluate a biophysics-based analytical surface energy balance model for predicting latent energy (LE) and sensible heat (H) fluxes using proximal sensing observations. The Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC1.2) model has been extensively validated across a wide range of spatial and temporal scales using various satellite-derived thermal infrared data sets. Here we extend this validation by applying STIC at sub-hourly temporal resolution over multiple growing seasons for four distinct agricultural systems. We further develop and evaluate novel STIC variants that incorporate machine learning (ML) techniques to eliminate the need for surface energy balance observations, specifically net radiation and soil heat flux, thereby enhancing model applicability in data-sparse settings. The integration of a ML component to estimate surface available energy is shown to have strong predictive performance for both LE (R2 = 0.81–0.94) and H (R2 = 0.46–0.72) across all agricultural systems examined here, demonstrating the potential of hybrid biophysical-machine learning approaches for surface energy balance modeling with minimal data requirements. This study concludes with a novel application of explainable machine learning (exML) to diagnose sources of model error. This exML framework attributes residual prediction errors to both model input variables and environmental drivers not explicitly included in the simulation experiments. This approach provides a new pathway for improving model design and integrating previously overlooked yet influential variables into future model iterations.

AI/ML↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning reveals genes impacting oxidative stress resistance across yeasts

Reactive oxygen species (ROS) are highly reactive molecules encountered by yeasts during routine metabolism and during interactions with other organisms, including host infection. Here, we characterized the variation in resistance to ROS across the ancient yeast subphylum Saccharomycotina and used machine learning (ML) to identify gene families whose sizes were predictive of ROS resistance.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accelerating Discovery of Solid‐State Thin‐Film Metal Dealloying for 3D Nanoarchitecture Materials Design through Laser Thermal Gradient Treatment

Thin‐film solid‐state metal dealloying (thin‐film SSMD) is a promising method for fabricating nanostructures with controlled morphology and efficiency, offering advantages over conventional bulk materials processing methods for integration into practical applications. Although machine learning (ML) has facilitated the design of dealloying systems, the selection of key thermal treatment parameters for nanostructure formation remains largely unknown and dependent on experimental trial and error. To overcome this challenge, a workflow enabling high‐throughput characterization of thermal treatment parameters is demonstrated using a laser‐based thermal treatment to create temperature gradients on single thin‐film samples of Nb‐Al/Sc and Nb‐Al/Cu. This continuous thermal space enables observation of dealloying transitions and the resulting nanostructures of interest. Through synchrotron X‐ray multimodal and high‐throughput characterization, critical transitions and nanostructures can be rapidly captured and subsequently verified using electron microscopy. The key temperatures driving chemical reactions and morphological evolutions are clearly identified. While the oxidation may influence nanostructure formation during thin‐film treatment, the dealloying process at the dealloying front involves interactions solely between the dealloying elements, highlighting the availability and viability of the selected systems. Further, this approach enables efficient exploration of the dealloying process and validation of ML predictions, thereby accelerating the discovery of thin‐film SSMD systems with targeted nanostructures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

MULTI-LEADER: MULTI-source LEarning-Accelerated Design of high-Efficiency multi-stage compRessor (Final Technical Report)

The objective of MULTI-LEADER is to cut design costs by 80% while generating more energy-efficient designs of multi-stage compressors by developing and implementing novel machine learning (ML) techniques, which enable faster and fewer design iterations, improved solver performance, and concurrent multi-disciplinary design. Current industrial practices for the design of multi-stage compressors involve simulation-based design optimization with successive levels of model fidelity, iteratively evaluated between distinct disciplines, one stage at a time to tackle the high dimensional design variations. This project addresses these key design challenges: (1) concurrent optimization of multiple stages under many non-linear constraints; (2) multitude of evaluation of high-fidelity and expensive solvers and their gradients during optimization convergence in high-dimensional design; (3) multi-disciplinary design to maximize aerodynamic performance while guaranteeing structural integrity and additive manufacturability; (4) utilization of multiple fidelity of solvers with disparate parameterization and modeling assumptions. MULTI-LEADER achieved more than 5x speed up in detailed design of more energy-efficient compressors via these machine learning (ML) innovations: (i) rapid design surrogates by multi-source learning from diverse fidelities across multiple disciplines, (ii) physics-constrained data-augmented modeling for improved empiricism, (iii) generative manifold embedding for high dimensional concurrent design without gradient information; (iv) budget-constrained fidelity-adaptive sampling towards fewer design iterations.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2024

How the Galaxy–Halo Connection Depends on Large-scale Environment

We investigate the connection between galaxies, dark matter halos, and their large-scale environments at z = 0 with Illustris TNG300 hydrodynamic simulation data. We predict stellar masses from subhalo properties to test two types of machine learning (ML) models: explainable boosting machines (EBMs) with simple galaxy environment features and E(3)-invariant graph neural networks (GNNs). The best-performing EBM models leverage spherically averaged overdensity features on 3 Mpc scales. Interpretations via SHapley Additive exPlanations also suggest that in the context of the TNG300 galaxy–halo connection, simple spherical overdensity on ∼3 Mpc scales is more important than cosmic web distance features measured using the DisPerSE algorithm. Meanwhile, a GNN with connectivity defined by a fixed linking length, L, outperforms the EBM models by a significant margin. As we increase the linking length scale, GNNs learn important environmental contributions up to the largest scales we probe (L = 10 Mpc). We conclude that 3 Mpc distance scales are most critical for describing the TNG galaxy–halo connection using the spherical overdensity parameterization, but that information on larger scales, which is not captured by simple environmental parameters or cosmic web features, can further augment these models. Our study highlights the benefits of using interpretable ML algorithms to explain models of astrophysical phenomena, and the power of using GNNs to flexibly learn complex relationships directly from data while imposing constraints from physical symmetries.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Path towards Plasma Facing Components: A Review of State-of-the-art in W-Based Refractory High-Entropy Alloys

Developing advanced materials for plasma-facing components (PFCs) in fusion reactors is a crucial aspect for achieving sustained energy production. Tungsten (W) - based refractory high-entropy alloys (RHEAs) have emerged as promising candidates due to their superior radiation tolerance and high-temperature strength. This review paper will focus on recent advancements in W-based RHEA research, particularly emphasizing the key role of modelling using machine learning (ML) in the stage of discovery by predicting properties for each composition and expediting the identification of optimal RHEA compositions with desired properties. Additionally, the application of additive manufacturing (AM) techniques for fabricating W-based RHEAs is explored, highlighting their advantages for rapid prototyping and multi-compositional sample production in a high throughput manner. The review critically evaluates the current understanding of mechanical properties relevant to PFC applications, including high-temperature strength and ductility. Furthermore, the radiation tolerance of W-based RHEAs under irradiated conditions is discussed. Finally, the validity of current AM-manufactured W-based RHEAs as PFC materials is assessed, and key challenges and opportunities for future research are identified. This review aims to provide a comprehensive overview of W-based RHEAs for fusion applications and their potential to guide the development and validation of advanced refractory high entropy alloys.

Hatler, Caleb [University of Wisconsin-Madison]↗
DOE OSTI2025

gRASPA

GPU Monte Carlo Simulation Code with a taste of RASPA We present enhancements in Monte Carlo simulation speed and functionality within an open-source code, gRASPA, which uses graphical processing units (GPUs) to achieve significant performance improvements compared to serial, CPU implementations of Monte Carlo. The code supports a wide range of Monte Carlo simulations, including canonical ensemble (NVT), grand canonical, NVT Gibbs, Widom test particle insertions, and continuous-fractional component Monte Carlo. Implementation of grand canonical transition matrix Monte Carlo (GC-TMMC) and a novel feature to allow different moves for the different components of metal-organic framework (MOF) structures exemplify the capabilities of gRASPA for precise free energy calculations and enhanced adsorption studies, respectively. The introduction of a High-Throughput Computing (HTC) mode permits many Monte Carlo simulations on a single GPU device for accelerated materials discovery. The code can incorporate machine learning (ML) potentials. The open-source nature of gRASPA promotes reproducibility and openness in science, and users may add features to the code and optimize it for their own purposes. The code is written in CUDA/C++ and SYCL/C++ to support different GPU vendors. The gRASPA code is publicly available at https://github.com/snurr-group/gRASPA.

Li, Zhao [Purdue/Northwestern/Notre Dame Universit↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Automated Weld Quality Monitoring and Control

Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) is a critical process in the automotive industry, valued for its cost-effectiveness, short cycle time, and robustness. However, achieving consistent high-quality joints remains challenging due to the complex interplay of various factors, like materials, processes, and manufacturing uncertainties, etc. Under the collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and General Motors (GM), we have developed a robust and expansible machine learning (ML) framework aimed at enhancing quality control in RSW. By harnessing the power of machine learning, we have developed the ability to ensure every aspect of the welding process, from the initial process design stage to the final weld joint quality. The framework operates by analyzing a variety of data streams, including in-line process signals, process parameters, materials, and postprocessed weld joint data. Through this analysis, the models have been trained to detect deviations from optimal quality standards, leveraging their ability to identify signature data patterns and anomalies within in-line signals and construct complex correlations between these signals and weld quality parameters. Meanwhile, the machine learning framework is designed to adapt to a variety of materials, including high strength steels and aluminum alloys, etc. Its flexible architecture facilitates the incorporation of diverse data sources and features, enabling precise modeling and prediction across a broad range of material properties and weld quality variables. The expansible ML frameworks represent a promising transformation in weld quality monitoring and control, empowering industry to achieve high levels of efficiency, consistency, and reliability in manufacturing.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Machine Learning meets Algebraic Combinatorics: A Suite of Benchmark Datasets to Accelerate AI for Mathematics Research

The use of benchmark datasets has become an important engine of progress in machine learning (ML) over the past 15 years. Recently there has been growing interest in utilizing machine learning to drive advances in research-level mathematics. However, off-the-shelf solutions often fail to deliver the types of insights required by mathematicians. This suggests the need for new ML methods specifically designed with mathematics in mind. The question then is: what benchmarks should the community use to evaluate these? On the one hand, toy problems such as learning the multiplicative structure of small finite groups have become popular in the mechanistic interpretability community whose perspective on explainability aligns well with the needs of mathematicians. While toy datasets are a useful benchmark for initial work, they lack the scale, complexity, and sophistication of many of the principal objects of study in modern mathematics. To address this, we introduce a new collection of benchmark datasets, Algebraic Combinatorics Benchmarks (ACBench), representing either classic or open problems in algebraic combinatorics, a subfield of mathematics that studies discrete structures arising from abstract algebra. After describing the datasets, we discuss the challenges involved in constructing “good” mathematics benchmarks, describe baseline model performance, and discuss some of the insights these datasets can provide that may be of interest even to those who are not interested in mathematics research itself.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Recent Progress on Surface Water Quality Models Utilizing Machine Learning Techniques

Surface waterbodies are heavily exposed to pollutants caused by natural disasters and human activities. Empowering sensor technologies in water quality monitoring, sufficient measurements have become available to develop machine learning (ML) models. Numerous ML models have quickly been adopted to predict water quality indicators in various surface waterbodies. This paper reviews 78 recent articles from 2022 to October 2024, categorizing water quality models utilizing ML into three groups: Point-to-Point (P2P), which estimates the current target value based on other measurements at the same time point; Sequence-to-Point (S2P), which utilizes previous time series data to predict the target value at one time point ahead; and Sequence-to-Sequence (S2S), which uses previous time series data to forecast sequential target values in the future. The ML models used in each group are classified and compared according to water quality indicators, data availability, and model performance. Widely used strategies for improving performance, including feature engineering, hyperparameter tuning, and transfer learning, are recognized and described to enhance model effectiveness. The interpretability limitations of ML applications are discussed. This review provides a perspective on emerging ML for surface water quality models.

machine learning (ML)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning for Automated Weld Quality Monitoring and Control

Resistance Spot Welding (RSW) is a critical process in the automotive industry, valued for its cost-effectiveness, short cycle time, and robustness. However, achieving consistent high-quality joints remains challenging due to the complex interplay of various factors, like materials, processes, and manufacturing uncertainties, etc. Under the collaborative project between Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and General Motors (GM), we have developed a robust and expansible machine learning (ML) framework aimed at enhancing quality control in RSW. By harnessing the power of machine learning, we have developed the ability to ensure every aspect of the welding process, from the initial process design stage to the final weld joint quality. The framework operates by analyzing a variety of data streams, including in-line process signals, process parameters, materials, and postprocessed weld joint data. Through this analysis, the models have been trained to detect deviations from optimal quality standards, leveraging their ability to identify signature data patterns and anomalies within in-line signals and construct complex correlations between these signals and weld quality parameters. Meanwhile, the machine learning framework is designed to adapt to a variety of materials, including high strength steels and aluminum alloys, etc. Its flexible architecture facilitates the incorporation of diverse data sources and features, enabling precise modeling and prediction across a broad range of material properties and weld quality variables. The expansible ML frameworks represent a promising transformation in weld quality monitoring and control, empowering industry to achieve high levels of efficiency, consistency, and reliability in manufacturing.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Jamming Detection for Low-Resolution SC-FDE Systems: A Machine Learning Approach

Jammers interfere with communication between base stations (BSs) and legitimate users, leading to degradation of wireless system performance. Our study focuses on jamming detection for wideband single-carrier frequency domain equalization (SC-FDE) systems with low-resolution analog-to digital converters (ADCs). In such systems, jamming detection is challenging because traditional analytical approaches cannot be directly applied due to the delay dispersion in wideband channels and the non-linearity induced by low-resolution ADCs. We propose a machine learning (ML)-based jamming detection method that directly uses the quantized receive signals. Significantly, our ML-based detector can be integrated into existing standard frameworks, such as unique word (UW)-based SC-FDE systems, as it uses existing pilots without requiring additional pilots for jamming detection. Through numerical simulations, we show that two or more bits provide satisfactory performance compared to unquantized scenarios. Additionally, we demonstrate that using more and well-separated pilot symbols improves performance.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Applications in Modern Power Systems

Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms offer valuable tools for the analysis and interpretation of large datasets. These tools have the capability to uncover insights that may not be readily apparent within these datasets. In recent years, the integration of ML and AI has become increasingly prevalent in various applications within the power system domain. One of the earliest instances of machine learning in power systems can be traced back to demand forecasting, where artificial neural networks were employed for short-term load forecasting. In contemporary power systems, an abundance of high-resolution geospatial and temporal data is generated at various time intervals, ranging from sub-seconds (Phasor Measurement Units or PMUs) to seconds (Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition or SCADA), minutes (Process Information or PI), and extending to days, months, and years. These datasets contain valuable information concerning system reliability and performance. This information holds the potential to offer critical insights into system operations, as well as solutions for predicting and mitigating contingencies to prevent cascading outages. Despite the immense power of machine learning tools, system operators, planners, and utilities often exhibit hesitancy in fully embracing AI-enabled system operations and planning. This cautious approach persists, even as numerous diverse applications of machine learning continue to emerge in the realm of power systems. In this chapter, our focus will delve deep into ML and AI applications tailored for power systems. These applications aim to furnish system operators with enhanced situational awareness and augment their decision-making capabilities, especially during challenging operating conditions. Specific areas of interest encompass root cause analyses of electricity market datasets and the strategic selection of representative samples from vast power system databases for training ML/AI models. Finally, the chapter will conclude with a short discussion on the future of ML/AI in power systems and possible directions that the industry is moving towards.

power system applications, machine learning (ML), ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learned Empirical Numerical Integrator from Simulated Data

Recently, a number of state-of-the-art surrogate machine learning (ML) models have been designed for global weather and climate prediction, which have been trained using reanalysis data products. Reanalysis data products are constructed using numerical model simulations that combine numerical integration of partial differential equations and parameterization schemes. These products are typically only archived and made available using coarsened spatial and temporal resolutions. This study explores the impact of the numerical generation methods used to produce the training datasets and the temporal resolution of those datasets on machine learning surrogate models. Using the nonlinear vector autoregression (NVAR) machine as an explainable ML technique, simple dynamical systems are emulated with ML models trained on data produced by three classical numerical integration schemes. NVAR is validated as a skillful ML method, capable of producing accurate predictions and, more importantly, reconstructing both the underlying dynamics and the numerical integration scheme used to generate the training data. However, the machine fails to generalize predictions on unseen test data generated by different numerical integration schemes, despite the underlying dynamical system being the same. This result provides a word of caution for the growing field of machine learning emulation of weather and climate dynamics. Furthermore, we illustrate using NVAR that training on temporally coarsened data may increase the required complexity of ML models and potentially introduce new numerical challenges. Finally, we discover that empirical integration schemes with arbitrary time-stepping sizes can be constructed directly from the data, which implies a potential for the development of empirical numerical integration schemes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗