Medical results of Apollo 14 - Implications for longer duration space flights
Biomedical effects of Apollo 14 space flight, considering weightlessness adaptation
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Biomedical effects of Apollo 14 space flight, considering weightlessness adaptation
Driven by the need for knowledge related to the low-gravity environment behavior of fluids in liquid fuels management, thermal control systems and fire safety for spacecraft, NASA embarked on a decades long research program to understand, accommodate and utilize the relevant phenomena. Beginning in the 1950s, and continuing through to today, drop towers and aircraft were used to conduct an ever broadening and increasingly sophisticated suite of experiments designed to elucidate the underlying gravity-dependent physics that drive these processes. But the drop towers and aircraft afford only short time periods of continuous low gravity. Some of the earliest rocket test flights and manned space missions hosted longer duration experiments. The relatively longer duration low-g times available on the space shuttle during the 1980s and 1990s enabled many specialized experiments that provided unique data for a wide range of science and engineering disciplines. Indeed, a number of STS-based Spacelab missions were dedicated solely to basic and applied microgravity research in the biological, life and physical sciences. Between 1980 and 2000, NASA implemented a vigorous Microgravity Science Program wherein combustion science and fluid physics were major components. The current era of space stations from the MIR to the International Space Station have opened up a broad range of opportunities and facilities that are now available to support both applied research for technologies that will help to enable the future exploration missions and for a continuation of the non-exploration basic research that began over fifty years ago. The ISS-based facilities of particular value to the fluid physics and combustion/fire safety communities are the Fluids and Combustion Facility Combustion Integrated Rack and the Fluids Integrated Rack.
The 2013 Nutrition Risk Standing Review Panel (from here on referred to as the SRP) was impressed by the degree of progress the nutrition discipline has made with the research plan presented since the 2012 Nutrition Risk SRP WebEx/teleconference. The scientists and staff associated with the nutrition discipline have, in addition, continued their impressive publication track record. Specifically the SRP found that the novel and important progress in the ocular health research area (Gap N7.3) represents an important advance in understanding the etiology and potential countermeasures for this condition and thinks that the work will not only be valuable for vision, but may have implications for cardiovascular health, as well. The SRP also considered the bone countermeasure data presented a potentially valuable tool for investigating bone metabolism under the unique conditions of space travel, specifically the innovation of variable use of stable Ca isotopes for bone synthesis and equal contribution for bone to investigate bone metabolism, as well as, the impact of the advanced resistive exercise device (ARED) on body composition during spaceflight. Finally, the SRP considers the planned Integrated Nutrition task to be an important and necessary strategic part of the research plan. The SRP is concerned that the risks observed in previous research on Low Earth Orbit (LEO) may not capture all the risks of longer duration flight beyond LEO. In particular, the SRP believes that there may be a much greater likelihood of an intensified chronic inflammatory response compared to the very minimal evidence seen to date and that modest effects seen in LEO, such as the reduction in appetite, may not predict an absence in longer duration flight out of LEO. The added complications of longer duration flight, greater bio-behavioral stress, radiation exposure, poorer communication, and inability to respond to unforeseen exigencies may create different risks. Thus, preparation for potential anticipated problems on long duration missions should be considered now while countermeasures can be developed even in the absence of sure knowledge as to their likelihood. Overall, the SRP thinks that all the Gaps presently in the research plan are appropriate and relevant, but there are a few missing Gaps that will help expand the research plan.
During the interval of 1950-mid 1998, some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina have been identified on the basis of sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic ENSO cycle. Statistical aspects of these events are examined. Surprisingly, the durations of El Nino and La Nina appear to be strongly bifurcated into shorter and longer duration classes, as do the recurrence periods of El Nino. Moreover, the duration of an El Nino appears to provide a statistically meaningful indication as to when to expect the next onset of El Nino. Because the last El Nino had its onset in April 1997 and was of longer duration, onset of the next El Nino, probably, will not occur until after February 2000.
Several media were tested for the extent to which they promoted high fertilization efficiencies in ovulated, stripped Xenopus eggs. One medium was selected for maintaining eggs in a 'delayed fertilization' (DelF) condition. DelF eggs displayed several unusual characteristics, including shift of the center of gravity, prominent sperm entrance site, and occasional polyspermy. The frequency of normal pattern formation varied according to the length of time eggs were maintained in the DelF condition. Various developmental abnormalities were observed during gastrulation, neurulation, and organogenesis. Most abnormalities appeared, however, to be related to morphogenesis of the endoderm. Primordial germ cell (PGC) development was examined in DelF eggs which displayed normal external morphological features at the swimming tadpole stage. PGC counts were usually normal in short-duration (eg, 5 hr) DelF eggs, but frequently substantially reduced or completely diminished in longer-duration (eg, 25h) tadpoles. Six spawnings were compared and shown to exhibit considerable variability in fertility, morphogenesis, and PGC development. Yolk platelet shifts and developmental parameters were examined in two additional spawnings. The subcortical cytoplasm in which the germ plasm is normally localized appeared to be disrupted in longer duration DelF eggs. That observation may account for low PGC counts in DelF tadpoles.
NASA’s Artemis campaign seeks to return humans to the moon and establish a sustained presence on the lunar surface. This session will emphasize how habitation capabilities on the moon and in cislunar space can potentially contribute to the sustainability objectives of Artemis. Habitable elements represent opportunities to enable longer duration stays, increase the number of crew members present, enhance science and utilization activities, drive technology development for future Mars exploration, perform analog missions, and fuel economic opportunities for US industry. Panelists include Paul Kessler (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, deputy lead for lunar surface habitation); Andrew Choate (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Mars habitation lead); Krystofer Dudzinski (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, a space architect within the MSFC Advanced Concepts Office); and Larry Toups (retired from NASA Johnson Space Center, currently an adjunct professor at University of Houston in space architecture). The panel is moderated by Tracie Prater (NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, Habitation Systems Development Office). The panel will begin with an overview of the history of habitation concepts and an academic perspective on general considerations in space habitat design (Larry Toups). Paul Kessler and Andrew Choate will introduce NASA’s principle of “architecting from the right” to help define objectives for Artemis missions, needs/characteristics, use cases, and functions (as published in the agency’s Architecture Definition Document) and provide perspective on how this principle informs habitation concept development work. NASA panelists will discuss key engineering challenges identified for developing, deploying, and operating habitable assets on the lunar surface and/or in deep space. These may include dust mitigation, outfitting of inflatable softgoods (for concepts which may use softgoods as a primary structural material), survival in lunar darkness, human health and performance considerations, maintenance/repair/sparing, and autonomy. These identified challenges represent risks for habitation systems development and relate closely to capability gaps identified by the agency. While the work of NASA Marshall Space Flight Center’s habitation development office is primarily focused on habitats which are launched from earth pre-integrated (referred to as Class I in the framework previously developed by NASA space architects Kennedy/Cohen) or launched from earth and deployed at the point of use (Class II), there is also extensive work in NASA, academia, and companies on constructed habitats, which would be built on a planetary surface using indigenous resources (Class III habitats). Panelist Krystopher Dudzinski will discuss potential evolutionary pathways from Class I and Class II habitats to Class III habitats, unique and common architectural challenges within each habitat class, and key gaps in implementing Class III habitats from an architectural perspective. NASA panelists and the moderator will also provide an overview of partnership opportunities and avenues for further engagement to advance habitation systems for the SpaceCom audience. NASA is currently developing notional concepts for a lunar surface habitat and Mars transit habitat, which will be discussed during this panel session and used as examples. These concepts represent options for habitation system design and are a point of departure. They do not represent a final plan or formal recommendation on the part of the agency. Based on the most recent analysis cycle, NASA’s lunar surface habitat (SH) concept nominally supports two crew members for 30 days, with the capacity to support four crew during a surge period where crew will swap between the SH and another surface asset, such as a pressurized rover. This example design has a metallic airlock for ingress/egress and the upper portion is an inflatable material system which serves as the habitation module. The notional interior of the habitat is a three-deck layout/configuration which supports all crew mission functions, including exercise, stowage, extravehicular activity (EVA), sleep, hygiene waste collection, maintenance and repair, and meal preparation. Under analysis assumptions for habitation, the Mars Transit Habitat (TH) concept would support four crew on an up to 1,200 day Mars mission. One option for the concept is to initially dock Transit Habitat at Gateway, where it can be used to increase the duration of crew stays in cislunar space and perform shakedown and analog missions prior to a Mars departure. One challenge in longer duration missions which involve both surface exploration and transit is understanding crew adaptation when transitioning between partial gravity and microgravity environments. TH at Gateway offers an opportunity to study this transition and in doing so reduce risks associated with future Mars exploration. Like lunar SH, the most recent analysis cycle concept of a Mars TH is a hybrid structure design, with a metallic section supporting EVAs, axial/radial docking, and Safe Haven capabilities, and an inflatable softgoods structure for the primary habitation function. Interior layouts to optimize crew usability and livability are currently under trade. The panel will include presentation material, but also seeks to engage the audience in a highly interactive conversation regarding the potential role for habitation in future exploration initiatives. Potential topics for discussion include the influence of the crew experience on habitation systems design and livability/usability considerations, the benefits of space habitation development in terrestrial applications, and challenges and opportunities in “feeding forward” lunar surface habitation systems development to Mars exploration.
The daily rhythm of melatonin influences multiple physiological measures, including sleep tendency, circadian rhythms, and reproductive function in seasonally breeding mammals. The biological signal for photoperiodic changes in seasonally breeding mammals is a change in the duration of melatonin secretion, which in a natural environment reflects the different durations of daylight across the year, with longer nights leading to a longer duration of melatonin secretion. These seasonal changes in the duration of melatonin secretion do not simply reflect the known acute suppression of melatonin secretion by ocular light exposure, but also represent long-term changes in the endogenous nocturnal melatonin episode that persist in constant conditions. As the eyes of totally blind individuals do not transmit ocular light information, we hypothesized that the duration of the melatonin secretory episode in blind subjects would be longer than those in sighted individuals, who are exposed to light for all their waking hours in an urban environment. We assessed the melatonin secretory profile during constant posture, dim light conditions in 17 blind and 157 sighted adults, all of whom were healthy and using no prescription or nonprescription medications. The duration of melatonin secretion was not significantly different between blind and sighted individuals. Healthy blind individuals after years without ocular light exposure do not have a longer duration of melatonin secretion than healthy sighted individuals.
NASA has flown animals to space as part of trailblazing missions and to understand the biological responses to spaceflight. Mice traveled in the Lunar Module with the Apollo 17 astronauts and now mice are frequent research subjects in LEO on the ISS. The ISS rodent missions have focused on unravelling biological mechanisms, better understanding risks to astronaut health, and testing candidate countermeasures. A critical barrier for longer-duration animal missions is the need for humans-in-the-loop to perform animal husbandry and perform routine tasks during a mission. Using autonomous or telerobotic systems to alleviate some of these tasks would enable longer-duration missions to be performed at the Deep Space Gateway. Rodent missions performed using the Gateway as a platform could address a number of critical risks identified by the Human Research Program (HRP), as well as Space Biology Program questions identified by NRC Decadal Survey on Biological and Physical Sciences in Space, (2011). HRP risk areas of potentially greatest relevance that the Gateway rodent missions can address include those related to visual impairment (VIIP) and radiation risks to central nervous system, cardiovascular disease, as well as countermeasure testing. Space Biology focus areas addressed by the Gateway rodent missions include mechanisms and combinatorial effects of microgravity and radiation. The objectives of the work proposed here are to 1) develop capability for semi-autonomous rodent research in cis-lunar orbit, 2) conduct key experiments for testing countermeasures against low gravity and space radiation. The hardware and operations system developed will enable experiments at least one month in duration, which potentially could be extended to one year in duration. To gain novel insights into the health risks to crew of deep space travel (i.e., exposure to space radiation), results obtained from Gateway flight rodents can be compared to ground control groups and separate groups of mice exposed to simulated Galactic Cosmic Radiation (at the NASA Space Radiation Lab). Results can then be compared to identical experiments conducted on the ISS. Together results from Gateway, ground-based, and ISS rodent experiments will provide novel insight into the effects of space radiation.
Spaceflight-induced bone loss is a significant health concern for astronauts which is only partially mitigated by established countermeasures such as resistive exercise, vitamin D supplementation, and nutritional support. These countermeasures have proven adequate for nominal 6-month missions aboard the ISS, but individual crewmembers may experience a degree of net bone loss which varies significantly. Estimates of whole-body bone mineral content (BMC) made using DXA show the mean change in BMC averages only -1 % during a nominal 6-month ISS mission. However, the observed range of interpersonal variation extends from + 1 % to -5 % per mission for crewmembers using ARED as a primary bone loss countermeasure [1]. This highlights two significant outstanding issues: (1) we currently cannot predict which crewmembers will experience greater or lesser extents of net bone loss during space flight; and (2) because of limited information regarding the dynamics of net bone loss during space flight, we cannot currently extrapolate the net bone loss rates observed during 6-month ISS missions to even longer duration missions envisioned for the Moon and Mars. The overall goal of the Bone Health project is to improve our understanding of how net bone mineral balance dynamically evolves during 2-12 months of spaceflight using integrated biochemical and calcium isotopic measurements. This will provide a foundation for estimating the possible range of changes in BMC that might be expected during even longer duration missions. As part of the Integrated 1-Year Mission Project, we aim to address these issues by (1) determining the time course of net whole-body bone mineral balance during 2-month, 6-month, and 12-month missions aboard the ISS, (2) examining the interpersonal variation in net bone loss/gain to determine whether this distribution is skewed with rare individuals experiencing above average rates of net bone loss, and (3) exploring possible predictors for individuals who will experience above or below average rates of net bone loss.
SCWO is a promising technology whose main benefits is that it is capable of completely mineralizing organic compounds in wastewater and separating inorganic salts. This means that SCWO can theoretically function as a single step water treatment system. It performs the functions of both the primary treatment system and the secondary brine drying function to achieve near 100% water recovery. It can also handle solids so no pretreatment of the feed is required. A preliminary trade study indicates that SCWO could be competitive with the ISS state of the art if its power consumption could be reduced. Thermal and mechanical energy recovery system exist that could reduce SCWO energy consumption to a level that is competitive with the state of the art. In addition, increasing the feed wastewaters organic content by including other wastes, such as feces, could produce a reactor that is thermally self-sustaining. There are 5 different types of SCWO reactors. They are; tubular, tank, impingement, transpiring wall reactors (TWR) and super critical water mixing (SCWM) reactors. Of these the best suited for NASA missions are the impingement and SCWM reactors. The impingement reactor is best suited for near term missions because it can treat the low organic content wastewaters such as are expected for initial Lunar and Mars missions and has the ability to remove precipitated inorganic solids. The SCWM reactor is best suited for longer duration CELSS type missions where high organic content wastewater is available and will resolve solids fouling and corrosion issues. In addition, these two reactors have a long NASA heritage and have been developed specifically for space flight application. Tubular reactors suffer from plugging issues which is a safety concern. Tank reactors will increase in size inversely with gravity, which will trade poorly in Lunar and Mars environments where gravity is reduced. TWR reactors require high organic content wastewater feed and the SCWM reactor is an optimized version of the TWR for NASA applications. It is recommended that in FY 2022 NASA continue to fully evaluate the ability of SCWO to produce potable water and remove inorganics as a solid byproduct. This should be done using the impingement reactor for near term missions and SCWM for longer duration missions. NASA should also develop optimized recuperative heat exchangers and pressure recovery devices to reduce power consumption and investigate inclusion of feces and other organic wastes into the wastewater model to increase its organic content and further reduce thermal energy requirements.
The following NASA Technical Memorandum (TM) is intended to provide a snapshot in time of NASA’s current considerations (ground rules and assumptions, functional allocations, logistics) for habitation systems for the lunar surface (non-roving) and Mars transits. As NASA continues to refine the reference designs to meet the needs of an evolving architecture, it is expected that this information will also be updated as a result. Where appropriate, relevant publicly released documents will be referenced to provide further detail. NASA’s human lunar exploration plan under the Artemis program calls for achieving the goal of sending the first woman and first person of color to the surface of the Moon in the mid- 2020s and working toward sustainable exploration by the end of the decade. Working with both commercial and international partners, NASA will establish a permanent human presence on the Moon to uncover new scientific discoveries and lay the foundation for private companies to build a lunar economy. Longer duration missions on the lunar surface and in lunar orbit will also serve as a test bed for technologies to support future Mars exploration campaigns. The agency will use what we learn on the Moon to prepare for humanity's next giant leap – sending astronauts to Mars. NASA intends to establish a sustained lunar presence with the development of the Artemis Base Camp to prove technologies and capabilities that will one day enable humans to live and work on Mars, beginning with core elements including the Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV), the Pressurized Rover (PR), the lunar Surface Habitat (SH), power systems, and in-situ resource utilization (ISRU) systems. For in space operations and eventual transport of humans to Mars, NASA will utilize a Mars Transit Habitat (TH). Following deployment, the TH will complete a series of longer duration missions and shakedown testing while docked at Gateway, leveraging Gateway’s habitation redundancy for safety measures. Proposed Gateway-TH missions will far exceed the longest duration cislunar human missions to date. They will be the first operational readiness tests of our long-duration deep space systems, and of the split crew (two crew on the surface, two crew in space) operations that are vital to the approach for the first human Mars mission. Both the SH and TH are major architectural elements of NASA’s Moon to Mars (M2M) approach, each with very different concepts of operation. The SH is intended for use on the lunar surface as a home for astronauts, surface operations base, science facility, hub for communications, extravehicular activity (EVA) equipment repair site, waste processing facility, and supply hub. It serves as an enabler for a sustained surface presence and preparation for partial gravity operations during Mars missions. The SH will be designed to be self-sufficient for operations on the lunar surface. The SH will independently provide several functions, including its own power generation, energy storage capability, sleep quarters, hygiene areas, work areas, and dining areas. It will be capable of communicating with surface assets, orbital assets, and directly with Earth ground stations. It is planned to operate with two crew in the habitat for ~28- day stays with crew swap-outs in which the PR crew of two trades places with the habitat crew. During the swap-out, the habitat will nominally support four crew for a short period of time. For contingency scenarios, the habitat must also be capable of supporting four crew for up to 7 days. The TH will be designed to be capable of up to ~1,200-day Mars missions with the ability to carry all food and supplies needed to support a crew of four for this duration. An assumed Mars mission profile for the TH is to carry crew and supplies for ~850-day roundtrips between Earth and Mars orbit that allows 30-day stays on the Martian surface. To test the systems for this long journey, the TH will be used to extend the duration of missions at Gateway, enabling the orbiting outpost to be used as a Mars analog. These analog missions will be accomplished by attaching the TH to Gateway and conducting lunar surface operations from the TH. The TH may also need to perform free-flying shakedown missions to test out all systems prior to leaving for Mars. The habitat provides many critical functions including: a contingency airlock, crew quarters, galley, hygiene areas, safe haven capability, and science equipment. It can receive docked items from either axial end or on a radial port.
Pyrotechnic systems, high burn rate propellant and explosive-actuated mechanisms, have been used extensively in aerospace vehicles to perform a variety of work functions, including crew escape, staging, deployment and destruction. Pyrotechnic system principles are described in this report along with their applications on typical military fighter aircraft, Mercury, Gemini, Apollo, and a representative unmanned spacecraft. To consider the possible pyrotechnic applications on the space shuttle the mechanical functions on a large commercial aircraft, similar in scale to the shuttle orbiter, were reviewed. Many potential applications exist for pyrotechnic system on the space shuttle, both in conventional short-duration functions and in longer duration and/or repetitive type gas generators.
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region (5 deg N-5 deg S, 120 deg- 170 deg W) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration and recurrence period associated with these extremes vary randomly, as does the sequencing of the extremes. Hence, the frequency of occurrence of these events during the 1990s, especially, for El Nino should not be construed as being significantly different from that of previous epochs. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks bimodal, consisting of two preferred modes - about 8 and 16 months in length for El Nino and about 9 and 18 months in length for La Nina. Likewise, the distribution of recurrence period, especially, for El Nino looks bimodal, consisting of two preferred modes - about 21 and 50 months in length. Scatter plots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino strongly suggest preferential associations between them, linking shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence period. Because the last known onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, one infers that the onset of the next expected El Nino will not occur until February 2000 or later.
The psychomotor vigilance task (PVT) is sensitive measure of performance impairment arising from sleep loss and circadian misalignment. Some individuals are able to maintain stable, good performance during laboratory-imposed sleep restriction. It is unclear whether such individuals need less sleep or whether they are more resilient to the effects of sleep loss. We aimed to characterize the relationship between sleep duration and perceived sleep need with PVT performance under real-world conditions.
Given the accelerated declines in bone mineral density reported in US astronauts serving on the International Space Station, there is a possibility that a prolonged exposure to spaceflight could put astronauts at increased fracture risk during subsequent planetary explorations or after return to Earth. To date, there have been no fractures in astronauts during spaceflight. Recently-reported data from a flight study suggested that intake of the bisphosphonate alendronate combined with resistive exercise (on the Advanced Resistive Exercise Device – ARED) preserved more astronauts at their preflight skeletal status after a ~6-mos spaceflight than with ARED exercise alone. However, there is low acceptance of alendronate, or the recommended zoledronic acid, to suppress in-flight bone loss largely due to concern for unintended medication side effects and a perceived absence of astronaut fractures that can be directly attributable to spaceflight exposure. Hence, a recent survey of all astronaut fractures was analyzed to assess whether the rate of postflight fractures could be associated with extended spaceflight exposures. The fracture survey was of 262 astronauts across 8433.6 person-years (PY) and grouped according to previous exposure to a “Long Duration (LD)” spaceflight (3 mos or greater, but typically 6-mos). The number of fractures was modeled using count regression adjusting for i) the repeated measures within individuals across the groups, ii) the differing length of surveillance for each individual and iii) age at start of surveillance for each of the groups. Astronaut Group by Spaceflight Exposure #Individuals PY Covered No Exposure to Spaceflight 262 1882.7 No Exposure to LD spaceflight “Non-LD” 232 6121.3 Exposure to LD spaceflight 42 429.6 Analysis revealed an increased rate of hip and spine fractures for surveillance periods compared between LD Exposure and Non-LD Exposure: Hip – Relative Rate: 3.4 (95%CI: 1.0, 12.0); Spine– Relative Rate: 3.4 (95%CI: 1.0, 11.6). For all other skeletal sites, rates of fracture were similar for LD and Non-LD exposures. Data comparisons were conducted between groups of astronauts to preclude the interpretation of greater physical activity in astronauts as a contributing factor to fracture rates. This analysis of fracture data is the first report associating postflight hip and spine fractures in astronauts with exposure to extended duration spaceflights. Further analyses integrating co-morbidities for bone loss are planned.
Given the expressed NASA opinion that there is no perceived increase in astronaut fracture prevalence to warrant using Bis prophylactically, we surveyed the entire astronaut corps for evidence associating fracture incidence with spaceflight duration. Aim was to acquire fracture data to support the use of Bis to prevent spaceflight-induced changes in bone as a mitigation strategy for fracture risk.
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5 deg. N.,-5 deg. S., 120-170 deg. W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-mo long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-mo long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50-mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later.
On the basis of sea surface temperature in the El Nino 3.4 region (5N.-5S., 120-170W.) during the interval of 1950-1997, Kevin Trenberth previously has identified some 16 El Nino and 10 La Nina, these 26 events representing the extremes of the quasi-periodic El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. Runs testing shows that the duration, recurrence period, and sequencing of these extremes vary randomly. Hence, the decade of the 1990's, especially for El Nino, is not significantly different from that of previous decadal epochs, at least, on the basis of the frequency of onsets of ENSO extremes. Additionally, the distribution of duration for both El Nino and La Nina looks strikingly bimodal, each consisting of two preferred modes, about 8- and 16-months long for El Nino and about 9- and 18-months long for La Nina, as does the distribution of the recurrence period for El Nino, consisting of two preferred modes about 21- and 50- mo long. Scatterplots of the recurrence period versus duration for El Nino are found to be statistically important, displaying preferential associations that link shorter (longer) duration with shorter (longer) recurrence periods. Because the last onset of El Nino occurred in April 1997 and the event was of longer than average duration, onset of the next anticipated El Nino is not expected until February 2000 or later.