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At least 19 records

Comparison of equilibrium climate sensitivity estimates from slab ocean, 150-year, and longer simulations

We compare equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimates from pairs of long (= 800-year) control and abruptly quadrupled CO2 simulations with shorter (150, 300 year) coupled atmosphere-ocean simulations and Slab Ocean Models (SOM). Consistent with previous work, ECS estimates from shorter coupled simulations based on annual averages for years 1-150 underestimate those from SOM (-8% ± 13%) and long (-14% ± 8%) simulations. Analysis of only years 21-150 improved agreement with SOM (-2% ± 14%) and long (-8% ± 10%) estimates. Use of pentadal averages for years 51-150 results in improved agreement with long simulations (-4% ± 11%). While ECS estimates from current generation US models based on SOM and coupled annual averages of years 1-150 range from 2.6°C to 5.3°C, estimates based longer simulations of the same models range from 3.2°C to 7.0°C. Such variations between methods argues for caution in comparison and interpretation of ECS estimates across models.

Dunne, John P.↗

Patterns of longer-term climate change effects on CO 2 efflux from biocrusted soils differ from those observed in the short term

Biological soil crusts (biocrusts) are predicted to be sensitive to the increased temperature and altered precipitation associated with climate change. We assessed the effects of these factors on soil carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) balance in biocrusted soils using a sequence of manipulations over a 9-year period. We warmed biocrusted soils by 2 and, later, by 4 °C to better capture updated forecasts of future temperature at a site on the Colorado Plateau, USA. We also watered soils to alter monsoon-season precipitation amount and frequency and had plots that received both warming and altered precipitation treatments. Within treatment plots, we used 20 automated flux chambers to monitor net soil exchange (NSE) of CO 2 hourly, first in 2006–2007 and then again in 2013–2014, for a total of 39 months. Net CO 2 efflux from biocrusted soils in the warming treatment increased a year after the experiment began (2006–2007). However, after 9 years and even greater warming (4 °C), results were more mixed, with a reversal of the increase in 2013 (i.e., controls showed higher net CO 2 efflux than treatment plots) and with similarly high rates in all treatments during 2014, a wet year. Over the longer term, we saw evidence of reduced photosynthetic capacity of the biocrusts in response to both the temperature and altered precipitation treatments. Patterns in biocrusted soil CO 2 exchange under experimentally altered climate suggest that (1) warming stimulation of CO 2 efflux was diminished later in the experiment, even in the face of greater warming; and (2) treatment effects on CO 2 flux patterns were likely driven by changes in biocrust species composition and by changes in root respiration due to vascular plant responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonality and longer-term development generate temporal dynamics in the Populus microbiome

ABSTRACT Temporal variation in community composition is central to our understanding of the assembly and functioning of microbial communities, yet the controls over temporal dynamics for microbiomes of long-lived plants, such as trees, remain unclear. Temporal variation in tree microbiomes could arise primarily from seasonal (i.e., intra-annual) fluctuations in community composition or from longer-term changes across years as host plants age. To test these alternatives, we experimentally isolated temporal variation in plant microbiome composition using a common garden and clonally propagated plants, and we used amplicon sequencing to characterize bacterial/archaeal and fungal communities in the leaf endosphere, root endosphere, and rhizosphere of two Populus spp. over four seasons across two consecutive years. Microbial community composition differed among seasons and years (which accounted for up to 21% of the variation in microbial community composition) and was correlated with seasonal dissimilarity in climatic conditions. However, microbial community dissimilarity was also positively correlated with time, reflecting longer-term compositional shifts as host trees aged. Together, our findings demonstrate that temporal patterns in tree microbiomes arise from both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term changes, which interact to generate unique seasonal patterns each year. In addition to shedding light on two important controls over the assembly of plant microbiomes, our results also suggest future studies of tree microbiomes should account for background temporal dynamics when testing the drivers of spatial patterns in microbial community composition and temporal responses of plant microbiomes to environmental change. IMPORTANCE Microbiomes are integral to the health of host plants, but we have a limited understanding of the factors that control how the composition of plant microbiomes changes over time. Especially little is known about the microbiome of long-lived trees, relative to annual and non-woody plants. We tested how tree microbiomes changed between seasons and years in poplar (genus Populus ), which are widespread and ecologically important tree species that also serve as important biofuel feedstocks. We found the composition of bacterial, archaeal, and fungal communities differed among seasons, but these seasonal differences depended on year. This dependence was driven by longer-term changes in microbial composition as host trees developed across consecutive years. Our findings suggest that temporal variation in tree microbiomes is driven by both seasonal fluctuations and longer-term (i.e., multiyear) development.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Epidermal Growth Factor Receptor Mutation Is Associated With Longer Local Control After Definitive Chemoradiotherapy in Patients With Stage III Nonsquamous Non–Small-Cell Lung Cancer

Purpose: To determine the frequency and clinical significance of epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations in patients with potentially curable stage III non–small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) who are eligible for definitive chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Patients and Methods: Between January 2001 and December 2010, we analyzed the EGFR mutational status in consecutive NSCLC patients who were treated by CRT. The response rate, relapse-free survival, 2-year relapse-free rate, initial relapse sites, and overall survival of the patients were investigated. Results: A total of 528 patients received CRT at our hospital during the study period. Of these, 274 were diagnosed as having nonsquamous NSCLC. Sufficient specimens for mutational analyses could be obtained from 198 of these patients. The proportion of patients with EGFR activating mutations was 17%. In addition to the well-known characteristics of patients carrying EGFR mutations (female, adenocarcinoma, and never/light smoker), the proportion of cases with smaller primary lesions (T1/2) was found to be higher in patients with EGFR mutations than in those with wild-type EGFR. Patients with EGFR mutations showed similar response rate, relapse-free survival, and 2-year relapse-free rates as compared to patients with wild-type EGFR. Local relapses as the site of initial relapse occurred significantly less frequently in patients with EGFR mutation (4% vs 21%; P=.045). Patients with EGFR mutations showed longer local control (adjusted hazard ratio 0.49; P=.043). After disease progression, a majority of the patients with EGFR mutations received EGFR tyrosine kinase inhibitors (62%), and these patients showed longer postprogression survival than those with wild-type EGFR. Conclusions: Our study is the first to show radiosensitive biology of EGFR-mutated tumors in definitive CRT with curative intent. This finding could serve as a credible baseline estimate of EGFR-mutated population in stage III nonsquamous NSCLC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Compost Amendment to a Grazed California Annual Grassland Increases Gross Primary Productivity Due To a Longer Growing Season

Abstract Compost amendment to rangelands is a proposed nature‐based climate solution to increase plant productivity and soil carbon sequestration. However, it has not been evaluated using quasicontinuous ecosystem‐scale measurements. Here, we present the first study to utilize eddy covariance and footprint partitioning to monitor carbon exchange in a grassland with and without compost amendment, monitoring for 1 year before and 1 year after treatment. Compost amendment to an annual California grassland was found to enhance net ecosystem removal of carbon. Our study confirmed that compost‐amended grasslands, similar to nonamended grasslands, are net carbon sources to the atmosphere; however, the amendment appears to be slowing down the rate at which these ecosystems lose carbon by 0.71 Mg C ha −1 per growing season. Digital repeated imagery of the canopy revealed that compost‐amended grasslands experienced an earlier green‐up, resulting in an overall longer growing season by >60 days. Notably, we did not detect significantly higher amounts of soil carbon in compost‐amended soils. High variability in soil carbon demands greater sampling replication in future studies. A longer growing season and higher productivity are hypothesized to be a result of greater availability of macronutrients and micronutrients in the top layer of soil (specifically nitrogen, phosphorus, and zinc).

Fenster, Tommy L. D.↗

Superconducting state of Sr 2 RuO 4 in the presence of longer-range Coulomb interactions

The symmetry of the superconducting condensate in Sr 2 RuO 4 remains controversial after recent experiments overturned the dominant chiral p-wave paradigm.We perform a theoretical study of pairing by spin- and chargefluctuations in Sr 2 RuO 4 , including the effects of spin-orbit coupling, and both local and longer-range Coulomb repulsion. The latter has important consequences for Sr 2 RuO 4 due to the near-degeneracy of symmetry-distinct pairing states in this material. Here we find leading nodal s', d xy , and helical (p) solutions, while both the g- and d x 2 –y 2 -wave channels remain noncompetitive. This suggests nodal time-reversal symmetry broken s' + id xy or s' + ip phases, promoted by longer-range Coulomb repulsion, as the most favorable candidates for Sr 2 RuO 4 . We analyze the properties of these states and show that the s' + id xy solution agrees with the bulk of available experimental data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Risk of longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions in the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill Coast Guard cohort study – five years of follow-up

Abstract Introduction Long-term endocrine and metabolic health risks associated with oil spill cleanup exposures are largely unknown, despite the endocrine-disrupting potential of crude oil and oil dispersant constituents. We aimed to investigate risks of longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions among U.S. Coast Guard (USCG) responders to the Deepwater Horizon (DWH) oil spill. Methods Our study population included all active duty DWH Oil Spill Coast Guard Cohort members ( N = 45,224). Self-reported spill exposures were ascertained from post-deployment surveys. Incident endocrine and metabolic outcomes were defined using International Classification of Diseases (9th Revision) diagnostic codes from military health encounter records up to 5.5 years post-DWH. Using Cox proportional hazards regression, we estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for various incident endocrine and metabolic diagnoses (2010–2015, and separately during 2010–2012 and 2013–2015). Results The mean baseline age was 30 years (~ 77% white, ~ 86% male). Compared to non-responders ( n = 39,260), spill responders ( n = 5,964) had elevated risks for simple and unspecified goiter (aHR = 2.09, 95% CI: 1.29–3.38) and disorders of lipid metabolism (aHR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.00–1.18), including its subcategory other and unspecified hyperlipidemia (aHR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.01–1.21). The dysmetabolic syndrome X risk was elevated only during 2010–2012 (aHR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.22–3.51). Responders reporting ever ( n = 1,068) vs. never ( n = 2,424) crude oil inhalation exposure had elevated risks for disorders of lipid metabolism (aHR = 1.24, 95% CI: 1.00–1.53), including its subcategory pure hypercholesterolemia (aHR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.08–2.72), the overweight, obesity and other hyperalimentation subcategory of unspecified obesity (aHR = 1.52, 95% CI: 1.09–2.13), and abnormal weight gain (aHR = 2.60, 95% CI: 1.04–6.55). Risk estimates for endocrine/metabolic conditions were generally stronger among responders reporting exposure to both crude oil and dispersants (vs. neither) than among responders reporting only oil exposure (vs. neither). Conclusion In this large cohort of active duty USCG responders to the DWH disaster, oil spill cleanup exposures were associated with elevated risks for longer-term endocrine and metabolic conditions.

Denic-Roberts, Hristina↗

Longer TOMM40 poly-T variants associated with higher FDDNP-PET medial temporal tau and amyloid binding

The translocase of outer mitochondrial membrane 40 (TOMM40), which lies in linkage disequilibrium with the apolipoprotein E (APOE) gene, has been implicated in Alzheimer’s disease (AD). TOMM40 influences AD pathology through mitochondrial neurotoxicity, and the medial temporal lobe (MTL) is the most likely brain region for identifying early manifestations of AD-related morphology changes. While early reports indicated that the longer length poly-T allele of TOMM40 increases risk for AD, these findings have not been consistently replicated in further studies. We examined the effect of TOMM40 and APOE on regional brain positron emission tomography (PET) 2-(1-{6-[(2 [F18]fluoroethyl) (methyl) amino]-2-naphthyl}ethylidene)malononitrile (FDDNP) binding values in MTL.A total of 73 non-demented older adults (42 females; mean age: 62.9(10.9) completed genotyping for both APOE and TOMM40 and received FDDNP-PET scans. For TOMM40, the lengths of the poly-T sequence were classified as short (14–20 repeats; S), long (21–29 repeats, L) or very long (>29 repeats, VL). Using general linear models, we examined medial temporal lobe FDDNP binding and cognitive functioning between TOMM40 and APOE-4 groups, with age, sex, and education as covariates. Data from 30 individuals with APOE-4 and L TOMM40 poly-T length, 11 non E4 TOMM40 S/S, 14 non E4 TOMM40 S/VL and 13 non E4 TOMM40 VL/VL were analyzed. Medial temporal FDDNP binding differed significantly between TOMM40/APOE groups (F(3,62) = 3.3,p = .03). Participants with TOMM40 S/S exhibited significantly lower binding compared to TOMM40 S/VL and APOE-4 carriers. We did not find a significant relationship between TOMM40 poly-T lengths/APOE risk groups and cognitive functioning. This is the first report to demonstrate a significant association between longer TOMM40 poly-T lengths and higher medial temporal plaque and tangle burden in non-demented older adults. Identifying biomarkers that are risk factors for AD will enhance our ability to identify subjects likely to benefit from novel AD treatments.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Perforation of the IVC: Rule Rather Than Exception After Longer Indwelling Times for the Guenther Tulip and Celect Retrievable Filters

Purpose: This study was designed to assess the incidence, magnitude, and impact upon retrievability of vena caval perforation by Guenther Tulip and Celect conical inferior vena cava (IVC) filters on computed tomographic (CT) imaging. Methods: Guenther Tulip and Celect IVC filters placed between July 2007 and May 2009 were identified from medical records. Of 272 IVC filters placed, 50 (23 Guenther Tulip, 46%; 27 Celect, 54%) were retrospectively assessed on follow-up abdominal CT scans performed for reasons unrelated to the filter. Computed tomography scans were examined for evidence of filter perforation through the vena caval wall, tilt, or pericaval tissue injury. Procedure records were reviewed to determine whether IVC filter retrieval was attempted and successful. Results: Perforation of at least one filter component through the IVC was observed in 43 of 50 (86%) filters on CT scans obtained between 1 and 880 days after filter placement. All filters imaged after 71 days showed some degree of vena caval perforation, often as a progressive process. Filter tilt was seen in 20 of 50 (40%) filters, and all tilted filters also demonstrated vena caval perforation. Transjugular removal was attempted in 12 of 50 (24%) filters and was successful in 11 of 12 (92%). Conclusions: Longer indwelling times usually result in vena caval perforation by retrievable Guenther Tulip and Celect IVC filters. Although infrequently reported in the literature, clinical sequelae from IVC filter components breaching the vena cava can be significant. We advocate filter retrieval as early as clinically indicated and increased attention to the appearance of IVC filters on all follow-up imaging studies.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Declining Reservoir Reliability and Increasing Reservoir Vulnerability: Long-Term Observations Reveal Longer and More Severe Periods of Low Reservoir Storage for Major United States Reservoirs

Hydrological drought is a pervasive and reoccurring challenge in managing water resources. Reservoirs are critical for lessening the impacts of drought on water available for many uses. We use a novel and generalized approach to identify periods of unusually low reservoir storage—via comparisons to operational rule curves and historical patterns—to investigate how droughts affect storage in 250 reservoirs across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). We find that the maximum amount of water stored in reservoirs is decreasing, and that periods of unusually low storage are becoming longer, more severe, and more variable in (a) western and central CONUS reservoirs, and (b) reservoirs with primarily over-year storage. Results suggest that reservoir storage has become less reliable and more vulnerable to larger deviations from desired storage patterns. These changes have coincided with ongoing shifts to the hydroclimate of CONUS, and with sedimentation further reducing available reservoir storage.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Herein, we present an integrated framework to explore near-term (to 2030) transition risks and longer-term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2 °C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Short-range order and longer-range disorder revealed in germanium–tin alloy thin films by extended x-ray absorption fine structure analysis

Short-range order (SRO) in semiconductor alloys, a relatively under-studied structural phenomenon in which local atomic arrangements differ from those of a random solid solution, is investigated in molecular beam epitaxy (MBE)-grown GeSn thin films. A novel preparation technique is used to pattern these films into microscale ribbons that are released from the substrate for extended x-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) analysis. The results indicate a strong SRO in which the first shell around Sn atoms is greatly denuded of Sn atoms relative to the nominal atomic composition of the alloy. This effect is more pronounced than that observed recently in GeSn nanowires grown by chemical vapor deposition. Additionally, the presence of a longer-range disorder detected by EXAFS analysis in the shells of atoms more distant from the absorbers is indicative of the defects and inhomogeneous strain present in the MBE-grown films. The evident existence of the SRO in GeSn alloys deposited by different growth methods and in different strain states suggests that SRO is a general phenomenon in the thin films of this metastable solid solution.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

Longer-lived mediators from charged mesons and photons at neutrino experiments

Since many of the dark-sector particles interact with Standard Model (SM) particles in multiple ways, they can appear in experimental facilities where SM particles appear in abundance. In this study, we explore a particular class of longer-lived mediators that are dominantly produced from photons and charged mesons that arise in proton-beam fixed-target-type neutrino experiments. This class of mediators encompasses light scalars that appear in theories like extended Higgs sectors, muon(electro)philic scalars, etc. We evaluate the sensitivities of these mediators at beam-based neutrino experiments such as the finished ArgoNeuT, ongoing MicroBooNE, SBND, ICARUS, and the upcoming DUNE experiment. We find that muonphilic scalars are more enhanced while produced from three-body decay of charged mesons. The above-mentioned experiments can probe unexplored regions of parameter space that can explain the current discrepancy in the anomalous magnetic moment of muons. We further find that Compton-like scattering of photons is the largest source of electrophilic scalars. By utilizing this, the DUNE Near Detector can explore new regions in the sensitivity space of electrophilic scalars. We also show that Bethe-Heitler scattering processes can be used to probe flavor-specific lepton final states even for the mediator masses below twice the lepton mass. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Brain necrosis after fractionated radiation therapy: Is the halftime for repair longer than we thought?

Purpose: To derive a radiobiological model that enables the estimation of brain necrosis and spinal cord myelopathy rates for a variety of fractionation schemes, and to compare repair effects between brain and spinal cord. Methods: Sigmoidal dose response relationships for brain radiation necrosis and spinal cord myelopathy are derived from clinical data using nonlinear regression. Three different repair models are considered and the repair halftimes are included as regression parameters. Results: For radiation necrosis, a repair halftime of 38.1 (range 6.9-76) h is found with monoexponential repair, while for spinal cord myelopathy, a repair halftime of 4.1 (range 0-8) h is found. The best-fit alpha beta ratio is 0.96 (range 0.24-1.73)Conclusions: A radiobiological model that includes repair corrections can describe the clinical data for a variety of fraction sizes, fractionation schedules, and total doses. Modeling suggests a relatively long repair halftime for brain necrosis. This study suggests that the repair halftime for late radiation effects in the brain may be longer than is currently thought. If confirmed in future studies, this may lead to a re-evaluation of radiation fractionation schedules for some CNS diseases, particularly for those diseases where fractionated stereotactic radiation therapy is used.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

When the Rain Stops: Drought on Subseasonal and Longer Timescales

The Aspen Global Change Institute hosted a technical science workshop, “When the Rain Stops: Drought on Subseasonal and Longer Timescales,” on September 9-14, 2018 in Aspen, CO. Gerald Meehl (NCAR), Roger Pulwarty (NOAA), and Angeline Pendergrass (NCAR) served as co-chairs for the workshop. The meeting included the participation of 25 scientists for a total of 125 participant days. The workshop resulted in agreement on definitions for both operational and research/prediction uses. Workshop participants are in the process of testing these definitions within their work on drought modeling, and impacts assessment, with the intention that these definitions can then be evaluated for CMIP6 (and incorporated into ESMValTool), as well as for the IPCC AR6 from observations, models, and impacts. Findings from the workshop and follow on experiments are in the process of being summarized and submitted for publication in a high profile peer-reviewed journal.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Window into Longer Lasting Batteries

There’s a new tool in the push to engineer rechargeable batteries that last longer and charge more quickly. An X-ray microscopy technique recently developed at Berkeley Lab has given scientists the ability to image nanoscale changes inside lithium-ion battery particles as they charge and discharge. The real-time images provide a new way to learn how batteries work, and how to improve them. The method was developed at Berkeley Lab’s Advanced Light Source, a DOE Office of Science User Facility, by a team of researchers from the Department of Energy’s SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory, Berkeley Lab, Stanford University, and other institutions.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Halos on Mars Could Mean a Longer Life-Friendly Past

Lighter-toned bedrock that surrounds fractures and comprises high concentrations of silica—called “halos”—has been found in Gale crater on Mars, indicating that the planet had liquid water much longer than previously believed.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗