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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1992

Determination of mean rainfall from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) using a mixed lognormal distribution

Global estimates of monthly, seasonal, and annual oceanic rainfall are computed for a period of one year using data from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I). Instantaneous rainfall estimates are derived from brightness temperature values obtained from the satellite data using the Hughes D-matrix algorithm. The instantaneous rainfall estimates are stored in 1 deg square bins over the global oceans for each month. A mixed probability distribution combining a lognormal distribution describing the positive rainfall values and a spike at zero describing the observations indicating no rainfall is used to compute mean values. The resulting data for the period of interest are fitted to a lognormal distribution by using a maximum-likelihood. Mean values are computed for the mixed distribution and qualitative comparisons with published historical results as well as quantitative comparisons with corresponding in situ raingage data are performed.

Berg, Wesley↗
NASA NTRS1995

The lognormal distribution as a model for bio-optical variability in the sea

The lognormal distribution is presented as a useful model for bio-optical variability at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. A parametric statistical framework is presented for using the lognormal model to assess the effects of heterogeneity and scale on closure. Variability at small scales affects but is unresolved by large-scale measurements. An assumed lognormal distribution allows one to integrate over small-scale variability to predict large-scale measurements. Examples are presented to demonstrate how knowledge of the variance can be incorporated into models to relate measurements made at different scales.

Campbell, Janet W.↗
DOE OSTI2025

A statistical representation of bond coating oxidation under environmental barrier coatings

Environmental barrier coatings (EBCs) protect SiC-based ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in turbine hot sections from high-temperature volatilization in combustion gases. The formation of a SiO 2 thermally grown oxide (TGO) is expected under the EBC after long-term operation. The oxidation resistance of the EBC is understood as a life-limiting factor for the CMC, and this work predicts long-term oxidation behavior under EBCs through a simple statistical approach. Specimens were exposed to 1350°C isothermal conditions for 100-h thermal cycles in flowing steam for up to 1000 h. The EBC morphology, SiO 2 thickness, and SiO 2 cracking behavior were assessed. Using thousands of SiO 2 thickness measurements across many millimeters of the interface, a realistic representation of the entire TGO was captured via a lognormal distribution. The lognormal fit parameters were extrapolated out to 25 000 h to assess the degree of SiO 2 growth, the spread of SiO 2 thicknesses related to the rough oxidizing interface, and percentages of the intermediate bond coating consumed. In conclusion, local interfacial defects from the coating deposition process are identified as local failure points for EBC—CMC systems.

SiO 2↗
NASA NTRS1990

Estimation of mean rain rate - Application to satellite observations

A method for the estimation of the mean area average rain rate from dependent data is developed and applied to the GARP Atlantic Tropical Experiment data. The method consists of fitting a mixed distribution, containing an atom at zero, by minimum chi-square in combination with certain time-space sampling designs. In modeling the continuous component of the mixed distribution, it is shown that the lognormal distribution provides a very close fit for the nonzero area average rainrates. A comparison with the gamma distribution shows that the lognormal distribution is a better choice as expressed by the minimum chi-square criterion. Some of the time-space sampling designs correspond to satellite sampling. The results indicate that a satellite visiting an area of about 350 x 350 sq km in the tropics approximately every 10 hours over a period can provide a rather close estimate for the mean area average rain rate.

Kedem, Benjamin↗
NASA NTRS1972

Statistical summary and trend evaluation of air quality data for Cleveland, Ohio in 1967 to 1971: Total suspended particulate, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide

Air quality data for Cleveland, Ohio, for the period of 1967 to 1971 were collated and subjected to statistical analysis. The total suspended particulate component is lognormally distributed; while sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide are reasonably approximated by lognormal distributions. Only sulfur dioxide, in some residential neighborhoods, meets Ohio air quality standards. Air quality has definitely improved in the industrial valley, while in the rest of the city, only sulfur dioxide has shown consistent improvement. A pollution index is introduced which displays directly the degree to which the environmental air conforms to mandated standards.

Neustadter, H. E.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Statistical summary of air quality data for metropolitian Cleveland, Ohio, 1967 - 1972: Total suspended particulates, nitrogen dioxide, and sulfur dioxide

Air-quality data for metropolitan Cleveland, Ohio, from 1967 through 1972 were collated and statistically analyzed. Total suspended particulates (TSP) departed from lognormal distribution in 1972. Nitrogen dioxide and sulfur dioxide, departed significantly from lognormal distributions in 1972. In Cleveland the Ohio standards were not met. However, the data indicate a general improvement in air quality. Unusually high precipitation (43% above the average in 1972) may be responsible in lowering these values from the 1971 levels. The mean values of TSP, NO2, and SO2 are 104, 191, and 83 microgram/cu m respectively.

King, R. B.↗
NASA NTRS1976

Voltage stress effects on microcircuit accelerated life test failure rates

The applicability of Arrhenius and Eyring reaction rate models for describing microcircuit aging characteristics as a function of junction temperature and applied voltage was evaluated. The results of a matrix of accelerated life tests with a single metal oxide semiconductor microcircuit operated at six different combinations of temperature and voltage were used to evaluate the models. A total of 450 devices from two different lots were tested at ambient temperatures between 200 C and 250 C and applied voltages between 5 Vdc and 15 Vdc. A statistical analysis of the surface related failure data resulted in bimodal failure distributions comprising two lognormal distributions; a 'freak' distribution observed early in time, and a 'main' distribution observed later in time. The Arrhenius model was shown to provide a good description of device aging as a function of temperature at a fixed voltage. The Eyring model also appeared to provide a reasonable description of main distribution device aging as a function of temperature and voltage. Circuit diagrams are shown.

Johnson, G. M.↗
NASA NTRS1994

Distributions of the interplanetary magnetic field revisited

The adequacy of the power spectrum to characterize the variations of a parameter depends on whether or not the parameter has a Gaussian distribution. We here perform very simple tests of Gaussianity on the distribution. We here perform very simple tests of Gaussianity on the distributions of the magnitudes of the interplanetary magnetic field, and on the distributions of the components; that is, we find the first four cumulants of the distributions (mean, variance, skewness, and kurtosis) and their solar cycle variations. We find, consistent with other recent analyses, that the traditional distributions of the 1-hour averaged magnitude are not distributed normally or lognomally as has often been assumed and the 1-hour averaged z component is found to have a nonzero kurtosis. Thus the power spectrum is insufficient to completely characterize these variations and polyspectra are needed. We have isolated variations in the 1/f frequency region of the spectrum and show that the distributions of the magnitudes have nonzero skewness and kurtosis, the magnitudes are not distributed lognormally, and the distributions of the components have nonzero kurtosis. Thus higher-order spectra are again needed for a full characterization.

Feynman, Joan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical Uncertainty of Inhalation Dose Coefficients in Consequence Management: Propagated Dose Uncertainty in ICRP 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model

Reference inhalation dose models rely on deterministic biokinetics and reference computational phantoms, limiting their applicability to the variability present in population-specific exposures encountered in emergency response scenarios. Here, this study introduces REDCAL, a Python-based computational framework developed to propagate uncertainty in inhalation dose coefficients using the International Commission on Radiological Protection (ICRP) Publication 66 Human Respiratory Tract Model. REDCAL integrates ICRP deposition and clearance models, systemic biokinetics, and governing physics principles, and leverages Sandia National Laboratories’ Dakota toolkit for uncertainty quantification via Latin Hypercube Sampling. REDCAL was validated against DCAL, with biokinetic retention results differing by less than 1% and effective dose coefficients by less than 2% across all tested radionuclides. Stochastic sampling introduced variability in dose coefficients, with geometric standard deviations (GSD) in committed effective dose coefficients (CEDC) ranging from 1.0 to 1.5, based on lognormal distribution fits. Analysis demonstrated that variations in the activity median aerodynamic diameter (AMAD) notably influenced the computed CEDC values. Smaller particles (<1 µm) increased doses by 20–30% due to deeper lung deposition and prolonged retention for alpha emitting radionuclides, such as 241 Am and 239 Pu. Radionuclides with fast clearance, such as 133 I, demonstrated a dose reduction exceeding 50%, as AMAD increased beyond 5 µm due to upper airway deposition and rapid mucociliary clearance. The greatest GSD among the radionuclides reported in this study was for 241 Am. In most cases, the largest GSDs in the CEDC were associated with larger particle sizes, an expected outcome, as ICRP Publication 66 defines GSD in particle size as a function of AMAD, resulting in an extended tail of the lognormal distribution. The findings support improved inhalation dose assessments and enhance consequence management strategies for the U.S. Federal Radiological Monitoring and Assessment Center by quantifying uncertainty in dose coefficients and strengthening decision-making for emergency response scenarios.

Biokinetic Modeling↗
NASA NTRS1987

Roadside tree attenuation measurements at UHF for land mobile satellite systems

Tree attenuation results at 870 MHz are described for experiments conducted in October 1985 and March 1986 in Central Maryland. These experiments employed a helicopter as a source platform and a van with receiver and data acquisition instrumentation. Tree attenuation results were obtained for the cases in which the van was stationary and in motion. The experiments were performed for the purpose of providing the designers of planned land mobile satellite systems with important elements in the determination of link parameter requirements; namely, the expected fading statistics due to roadside trees for both mobile and stationary vehicles. Single tree attenuation results gave worst case median fades as high as 15 dB although roadside tree values were noted to produce fades in excess of 20 dB for small percentages of time. The cumulative fade distributions and their relative contributions as a function of path elevation angle, right side versus left side driving, and different road types are derived from the field measurements. Upon comparing the attenuations from bare deciduous trees (March 1986) with those due to trees in full foliage (October 1985), the increase in dB attenuations were, in general, less than 25 percent for the dynamic cases, and less than 40 percent for the worst case static configuration. This result demonstrates that the dominant fading is caused by the wooded tree branches as opposed to the leaves on these branches. The tail end of the observed fade distributions was observed to follow lognormal distributions with respect to dB attenuation.

Goldhirsh, Julius↗
NASA NTRS1997

Rapid Temporal Changes of Midtropospheric Winds

The statistical distribution of the magnitude of the vector wind change over 0.25-, 1-, 2-. and 4-h periods based on data from October 1995 through March 1996 over central Florida is presented. The wind changes at altitudes from 6 to 17 km were measured using the Kennedy Space Center 50-MHz Doppler radar wind profiler. Quality controlled profiles were produced every 5 min for 112 gates, each representing 150 m in altitude. Gates 28 through 100 were selected for analysis because of their significance to ascending space launch vehicles. The distribution was found to be lognormal. The parameters of the lognormal distribution depend systematically on the time interval. This dependence is consistent with the behavior of structure functions in the f(exp 5/3) spectral regime. There is a small difference between the 1995 data and the 1996 data, which may represent a weak seasonal effect.

Merceret, Francis J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Analysis of Physical Properties of Dust Suspended in the Mars Atmosphere

Methods for iteratively determining the infrared optical constants for dust suspended in the Mars atmosphere are described. High quality spectra for wavenumbers from 200 to 2000 1/cm were obtained over a wide range of view angles by the Mariner 9 spacecraft, when it observed a global Martian dust storm in 1971-2. In this research, theoretical spectra of the emergent intensity from Martian dust clouds are generated using a 2-stream source-function radiative transfer code. The code computes the radiation field in a plane-parallel, vertically homogeneous, multiply scattering atmosphere. Calculated intensity spectra are compared with the actual spacecraft data to iteratively retrieve the optical properties and opacity of the dust, as well as the surface temperature of Mars at the time and location of each measurement. Many different particle size distributions a-re investigated to determine the best fit to the data. The particles are assumed spherical and the temperature profile was obtained from the CO2 band shape. Given a reasonable initial guess for the indices of refraction, the searches converge in a well-behaved fashion, producing a fit with error of less than 1.2 K (rms) to the observed brightness spectra. The particle size distribution corresponding to the best fit was a lognormal distribution with a mean particle radius, r(sub m) 0.66 pm, and variance, omega(sup 2) = 0.412 (r(sub eff) = 1.85 microns, v(sub eff) =.51), in close agreement with the size distribution found to be the best fit in the visible wavelengths in recent studies. The optical properties and the associated single scattering properties are shown to be a significant improvement over those used in existing models by demonstrating the effects of the new properties both on heating rates of the Mars atmosphere and in example spectral retrieval of surface characteristics from emission spectra.

Snook, Kelly↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Lightning Incidence to Elements of a Complex Structure: A Monte Carlo Approach

There are complex structures for which the installation and positioning of the lightning protection system (LPS) cannot be done using the lightning protection standard guidelines. As a result, there are some "unprotected" or "exposed" areas. In an effort to quantify the lightning threat to these areas, a Monte Carlo statistical tool has been developed. This statistical tool uses two random number generators: a uniform distribution to generate origins of downward propagating leaders and a lognormal distribution to generate returns stroke peak currents. Downward leaders propagate vertically downward and their striking distances are defined by the polarity and peak current. Following the electrogeometrical concept, we assume that the leader attaches to the closest object within its striking distance. The statistical analysis is run for 10,000 years with an assumed ground flash density and peak current distributions, and the output of the program is the probability of direct attachment to objects of interest with its corresponding peak current distribution.

Mata, Carlos T.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Evaluation of Lightning Incidence to Elements of a Complex Structure: A Monte Carlo Approach

There are complex structures for which the installation and positioning of the lightning protection system (LPS) cannot be done using the lightning protection standard guidelines. As a result, there are some "unprotected" or "exposed" areas. In an effort to quantify the lightning threat to these areas, a Monte Carlo statistical tool has been developed. This statistical tool uses two random number generators: a uniform distribution to generate the origin of downward propagating leaders and a lognormal distribution to generate the corresponding returns stroke peak currents. Downward leaders propagate vertically downward and their striking distances are defined by the polarity and peak current. Following the electrogeometrical concept, we assume that the leader attaches to the closest object within its striking distance. The statistical analysis is run for N number of years with an assumed ground flash density and the output of the program is the probability of direct attachment to objects of interest with its corresponding peak current distribution.

Mata, Carlos T.↗
NASA NTRS1969

Probabilistic-graphical and phenomenological analysis of combined bending-torsion fatigue reliability data

Fatigue data generated by three combined bending-torsion fatigue reliability research machines at The University of Arizona are probabilistic-graphically and phenomenologically analyzed. Distributions that are applicable to fatique life and static strength data are discussed. Phenomenological justifications for the use of these distributions are presented. It is found that the normal distribution represents the cycles-to-failure data at the highest stress levels best. The lognormal distribution appears to fit the cycles-to-failure data at the lower stress levels best and quite well at all stress levels including the highest. A regression analysis and least-squares goodness-of-fit test was performed for normal and lognormal plots. In most cases, the correlation coefficient gave a better fit to the data using the normal distribution, but the difference between the two was so slight that positive discrimination could not be made.

Kececioglu, D.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Statistical Treatment of Earth Observing System Pyroshock Separation Test Data

The Earth Observing System (EOS) AM-1 spacecraft for NASA's Mission to Planet Earth is scheduled to be launched on an Atlas IIAS vehicle in June of 1998. One concern is that the instruments on the EOS spacecraft are sensitive to the shock-induced vibration produced when the spacecraft separates from the launch vehicle. By employing unique statistical analysis to the available ground test shock data, the NASA Lewis Research Center found that shock-induced vibrations would not be as great as the previously specified levels of Lockheed Martin. The EOS pyroshock separation testing, which was completed in 1997, produced a large quantity of accelerometer data to characterize the shock response levels at the launch vehicle/spacecraft interface. Thirteen pyroshock separation firings of the EOS and payload adapter configuration yielded 78 total measurements at the interface. The multiple firings were necessary to qualify the newly developed Lockheed Martin six-hardpoint separation system. Because of the unusually large amount of data acquired, Lewis developed a statistical methodology to predict the maximum expected shock levels at the interface between the EOS spacecraft and the launch vehicle. Then, this methodology, which is based on six shear plate accelerometer measurements per test firing at the spacecraft/launch vehicle interface, was used to determine the shock endurance specification for EOS. Each pyroshock separation test of the EOS spacecraft simulator produced its own set of interface accelerometer data. Probability distributions, histograms, the median, and higher order moments (skew and kurtosis) were analyzed. The data were found to be lognormally distributed, which is consistent with NASA pyroshock standards. Each set of lognormally transformed test data produced was analyzed to determine if the data should be combined statistically. Statistical testing of the data's standard deviations and means (F and t testing, respectively) determined if data sets were significantly different at a 95-percent confidence level. If two data sets were found to be significantly different, these families of data were not combined for statistical purposes. This methodology produced three separate statistical data families of shear plate data. For each population, a P99.1/50 (probability/confidence) per-separation-nut firing level was calculated. By using the binomial distribution, Lewis researchers determined that this pernut firing level was equivalent to a P95/50 per-flight confidence level. The overall envelope of the per-flight P95/50 levels led to Lewis' recommended EOS interface shock endurance specification. A similar methodology was used to develop Lewis' recommended EOS mission assurance levels. The available test data for the EOS mission are significantly larger than for a normal mission, thus increasing the confidence level in the calculated expected shock environment. Lewis significantly affected the EOS mission by properly employing statistical analysis to the data. This analysis prevented a costly requalification of the spacecraft's instruments, which otherwise would have been exposed to significantly higher test levels.

McNelis, Anne M.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Soot Aerosol In The Atmosphere: Pole-to-Pole Distribution And Contributions by Aircraft

Interest in the distribution of black carbon (soot) aerosol (BCA) in the atmosphere is warranted for the following reasons: (1) BCA has the highest absorption cross section of any compound known, thus it can absorb solar radiation to cause atmospheric warming; (2) BCA is a strong adsorber of gases, thus it can catalyze heterogeneous chemical reactions to modify the chemical composition of the atmosphere; (3) If aircraft emission is the major source of atmospheric BCA, it can serve as an atmospheric tracer of aircraft exhaust. We collect BCA particles greater than or equal to 0.02 micrometer diameter by wires mounted on both the DC-8 and ER-2 aircraft. After return to the laboratory, the wires are examined with a field emission scanning electron microscope to identify BCA particles by their characteristic morphology. Typically, BCA exists in the atmosphere as small particles of complex morphology. The particle sizes at the source are measured in tens of Angstrom units; after a short residence time in the atmosphere, individual particles coalesce to loosely packed agglomerates of typical dimensions 0.01 to 0.1 micrometer. We approximate the size of each BCA aggregate by that of a sphere of equivalent volume. This is done by computing the volume of a sphere whose diameter is the mean between averaged minimum and maximum dimensions of the BCA particle. While this procedure probably underestimates the actual surface area, it permits us to compare BCA size distributions among themselves and with other types of aerosols. When statistically justified, we fit lognormal distributions to the data points to determine number concentrations, geometric mean radii, standard deviations, BCA surface areas and volumes. Results to date permit the following conclusions: (1) BCA concentration in the northern stratosphere averages 0.6 ng per cubic meters. This amount is one part in 10(exp 4) after a volcanic eruption (e.g., Pinatubo) increasing to about one percent during volcanic quiescence. In the northern troposphere, BCA concentration averages 3.2 ng per cubic meters, or 0.3 percent of the background aerosol. (2) Applying an BCA emission index EI(BCA)=5 x 10(exp -5), measured in the exhaust wake of a Concorde supersonic jet aircraft, to realistic estimates of fuel burnt by the current and projected fleets permits us to conclude that: (i) Most BCA in the northern stratosphere results from aircraft emissions; (ii) Most BCA in the northern troposphere results from other sources than aircraft; (iii) A projected supersonic fleet will increase the northern stratospheric BCA concentration by one order of magnitude, unless the emission index is substantially reduced. (3) A strong gradient between the northern and southern hemispheres indicates that mixing across the equator is greatly inhibited in relation to atmospheric residence times of BCA. (4) The single scatter albedo of BCA/"background" aerosol mixtures suggests a cooling effect for most of the globe; an exemption is the Arctic because of the high surface albedo of the snow/ice covered earth's surface.

Pueschel, R. F.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagenesis is key to unlocking outcrop fracture data suitable for quantitative extrapolation to geothermal targets

Exceptionally large, well-exposed sandstone outcrops in New York provide insights into folds, deformation bands, and fractures that could influence permeability, heat exchange, and stimulation outcomes of geothermal reservoir targets. Cambrian Potsdam Sandstone with <5% porosity contains decimeter-scale open, angular-limbed monoclines <0.5 km apart with associated low-porosity mm-wide cataclastic deformation bands. Crossing and abutting relationships among sub-vertical opening-mode fractures show four chronological Sets A–D, striking NNW, NE, NW, and ENE, respectively. Fracture lengths and heights range from millimeters to tens of meters. Sets A and C macro-fractures, and possibly B and D, contain quartz deposits. All sets have abundant associated quartz cemented microfractures that also record set orientations and crosscutting relations. Quartz cement deposits—evidence of diagenesis—are the key to identifying attributes of outcrop fractures suitable for extrapolation to geothermal targets in sandstones because they show which fractures formed in the subsurface. Set A fluid inclusion homogenization temperatures (120°C–129°C) are compatible with fracture at >3 km depth. Fractures are stiff and those ≥0.05 mm (Set C) and ≥0.1 mm (Set A) are open and potentially conducive to flow. Sets A and D are abundant in outcrops with close fracture spacing—0.18 m and 0.68 m, respectively—and define a rectangular connectivity network dominated by crossing and abutting X and Y nodes. Set A aperture distributions follow a power law with slope –0.8 up to 0.15 mm; other sets have lognormal distributions. Set A and D microfractures are weakly clustered, while macro-fractures commonly have 1D anticlustered (regular or periodic) arrangements at shorter length scales (<0.2 m). Sub-horizontal fractures are barren and may have formed near the surface. Fracture heights, lengths, and spatial arrangements show good trace connectivity but low open connectivity. For geothermal applications, outcrop results predict low initial well-test permeabilities owing to quartz disconnecting open fractures, but stimulation of closely spaced microfractures and partly open macro-fractures could yield high surface area for heat exchange. Quantitative extrapolation of key fracture attributes like abundance, orientation, spatial arrangement, length, and open fracture connectivity is possible from outcrops to fractured reservoirs if differing thermal histories and diagenesis are accounted for.

02 PETROLEUM↗