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Causal mediation analysis in nested case-control studies using conditional logistic regression
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Tsunami preparedness and resilience: Evacuation logistics and time estimations
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Techno-Economic Impact of Diesel Fuel, Labor, and Interest Rates on Bulk-Format and Round Bale Logistics Expenses for Switchgrass
Highlights System-wide sensitivity of bulk-format and round bale logistics responded to different degrees of expense inputs. Biomass size-reduction expenses for bulk-format were consistently less than round-bale chopping. Stack/reclaim operations with high-density-capacity equipment for bulk-format were the highest expenses. Clean-sheet design of stacker/reclaimer and self-compacting bulk trailer may significantly reduce expenses. Abstract . Deterministic cost analyses were conducted for a harvest, storage, preprocessing, and supply system providing 371,870 dry Mg (dMg) year-1 of milled switchgrass (SG) to a biorefinery from 21,929 ha of production fields within 72 km of the biorefinery. Varied input costs of diesel fuel, labor, and interest rate were input into a highly detailed cost analysis for bulk-format and baseline round bale logistics. These operational input factors, potentially reflecting an evolving economic climate or paradigm shift, were examined to provide insight into the cost to deliver preprocessed biomass feedstock for centralized commercial-scale conversions. Total annual costs per dry unit of SG were determined for all combinations of diesel fuel prices of $0.53 L-1, $0.92 L-1, and $1.32 L-1; total labor costs of $20.00 h-1, $28.85 h-1, and $40.00 h-1 singly and uniformly applied across all labor inputs; and three representative interest rates of 6%, 8%, and 12%. Increases in total cost most depended on increases in diesel fuel cost, followed by labor rate, and finally interest rate. Increases in fuel costs from $0.53 L-1 to $1.32 L-1 yielded a total cost increase of about $11.56 dMg-1 and $13.36 dMg-1 for bulk-format and round bale logistics, respectively, for all combinations of labor and interest rates. The overall increase in labor rate ($20.00 h-1 to $40.85 h-1) resulted in increased total costs of about $10.32 dMg-1 for bulk-format logistics and $9.94 dMg-1 for round bale logistics for all fuel and interest rates. The overall increase in interest rate (6% to 12%) resulted in increased total costs of about $6.72 dMg-1 for bulk-format logistics and $4.21 dMg-1 for round bale logistics for all fuel and labor rates. Increases in total costs for combined increases in fuel cost, labor rate, and interest rate were $28.60 dMg-1 and $27.48 dMg-1, yielding maximum total costs of $87.87 dMg-1 and $86.53 dMg-1 for bulk-format and round bale logistics, respectively. Costs were determined for existing equipment systems, including novel use of waste compaction and ejector semi-trailers. The highest potential for cost reductions may require clean-sheet equipment designs specifically tailored for SG, such as forage harvesters that direct-cut standing SG, mobilized stacker-reclaimer technology to not inhibit stack-area footprint, self-compacting ejector trailer technology, and bale grinding technology incorporating controlled mass feeding and shear failure elements. Keywords: Bales, Bioenergy, Bulk-format, Densification, Field chop, Logistics, Transportation
Logistic Regression in Clinical Studies
• A logistic regression model is used when the outcome of interest is binary. The term “logistic” refers to the underlying “logit” (log odds) function that is used to model the binary outcome. • Odds ratios are produced from a logistic regression model and have a useful interpretation. • Tips, tricks and concepts used to fit logistic regression models are similar to those used in linear regression models. • Modeling building that is knowledge-based rather than automatic is preferred in most applications of logistic regression. • A logistic regression model that is overparameterized (ie, too many variables for too few events) can result in odds ratios that are implausibly large and confidence intervals that are wide and uninterpretable. These types of “overfitted” models should be avoided. • Logistic regression models can be fit using most standard statistical software.
Optimizing Transportation Networks for E-Waste Reverse Logistics: A Multi-Modal Cost Allocation and Pricing Strategy
The exponential growth of electronic waste (e-waste) poses critical challenges for sustainable reverse logistics and transportation network optimization. This study develops a dual-channel transportation framework for e-waste logistics that integrates dynamic freight pricing, cost allocation mechanisms, and game-theoretic coordination. The model captures interactions between centralized hubs and distributed processing networks, accounting for freight rate elasticity, volume allocation, and capacity constraints. Using Stackelberg game theory and cost-sharing strategies, the framework optimizes transportation efficiency and profit distribution across logistics channels. Numerical simulations show that the dual-channel structure increases centralized hub profit by 226.8% compared to baseline single-channel operations, while boosting total transported volume by 1.2% and nearly doubling freight collector profit under cost-sharing. Scenario analyses across regional infrastructures reveal that network density, policy incentives, and logistics costs shape routing efficiency and profit allocation. These findings suggest that coordinated strategies combining dynamic pricing, targeted infrastructure investment, and strategic cost allocation are needed to design efficient, resilient, and regionally adaptable e-waste transportation systems.
Physics-guided logistic classification for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining
This paper describes a physics-guided logistic classification method for tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in machining. Tool life is modeled using a classification method since the exact tool life cannot be measured in a typical production environment where tool wear can only be directly measured when the tool is replaced. Here, in this study, laboratory tool wear experiments are used to simulate tool wear data normally collected during part production. Two states are defined: tool not worn (class 0) and tool worn (class 1). The non-linear reduction in tool life with cutting speed is modeled by applying a logarithmic transformation to the inputs for the logistic classification model. A method for interpretability of the logistic model coefficients is provided by comparison with the empirical Taylor tool life model. The method is validated using tool wear experiments for milling. Results show that the physics-guided logistic classification method can predict tool life using limited datasets. A method for pre-process optimization of machining parameters using a probabilistic machining cost model is presented. The proposed method offers a robust and practical approach to tool life modeling and process parameter optimization in a production environment.
Logistic classification for tool life modeling in machining
This paper describes the application of logistic classification for tool life modeling and prediction in an industrial setting using shop floor data. Tool life is treated as a classification problem since tool wear can only be measured at the time of tool replacement in a production environment. Laboratory tool wear experiments are used to simulate shop floor wear data by two states: not worn (class 0); and worn (class 1). To incorporate non-linearity in logistic classification, a log-transformation of input features is performed. The logistic classification approach, results, and interpretability of the logistic model are presented.
A Provably Accurate Randomized Sampling Algorithm for Logistic Regression
In statistics and machine learning, logistic regression is a widely-used supervised learning technique primarily employed for binary classification tasks. When the number of observations greatly exceeds the number of predictor variables, we present a simple, randomized sampling-based algorithm for logistic regression problem that guarantees high-quality approximations to both the estimated probabilities and the overall discrepancy of the model. Our analysis builds upon two simple structural conditions that boil down to randomized matrix multiplication, a fundamental and well-understood primitive of randomized numerical linear algebra. We analyze the properties of estimated probabilities of logistic regression when leverage scores are used to sample observations, and prove that accurate approximations can be achieved with a sample whose size is much smaller than the total number of observations. To further validate our theoretical findings, we conduct comprehensive empirical evaluations. Overall, our work sheds light on the potential of using randomized sampling approaches to efficiently approximate the estimated probabilities in logistic regression, offering a practical and computationally efficient solution for large-scale datasets.
Nonlinear Logistic Regression Mixture Experiment Modeling for Binary Data Using Dimensionally Reduced Components
This article presents and illustrates an approach using nonlinear logistic regression for modeling binary response data from a mixture experiment when the components can be partitioned into groups used to form dimensionally-reduced pseudocomponents (DRPs). A DRP is a linear combination of the components in a group, where the linear combinations over all groups are normalized so that the DRP proportions sum to unity. Nonlinear logistic regression is required because, after normalization of the linear combinations, the model expressed in terms of the DRPs is nonlinear in the parameters that specify the linear combinations. A method for obtaining nonparametric tolerance limits on the probability of a “success” for the binary response variable using a bootstrap approach is also presented. Having three DRPs enables viewing data and modeling results on a ternary plot even though there may be many more than three mixture components. A real database, involving whether or not nepheline crystals form in simulated nuclear waste glass after cooling, is used to illustrate the nonlinear logistic regression modeling and nonparametric tolerance limit approaches when there are three DRPs.
Probabilistic Power Consumption Modeling for Commercial Buildings Using Logistic Regression Markov Chain
The total energy consumed by buildings takes up to 40% of U.S. energy use, in which a large portion is contributed by commercial buildings. Building performance optimization is desirable but requires accurate building models with uncertainties taken into account. This paper proposes a novel probabilistic modeling method using Logistic Regression Markov Chain (LRMC). The LRMC model enhances the performance of traditional Markov Chain (MC) models by adopting time-variant transition matrices calibrated using logistic regression with exogenous inputs. Compared with existing building models, the proposed model produces accurate multi-step modeling results with full probability distribution. The proposed probabilistic building model is tested using actual commercial building measurements and modeling performance is evaluated with two probabilisitc metrics. The results show that the LRMC model has higher accuracy than traditional MC model and Logistic Regression (LR) model in that it yields lower error scores under both evaluation metrics.
Dynamic logistic regression and variable selection: Forecasting and contextualizing civil unrest
Civil unrest can range from peaceful protest to violent furor, and researchers are working to monitor, forecast, and assess such events to allocate resources better. Twitter has become a real-time data source for forecasting civil unrest because millions of people use the platform as a social outlet. Additionally, daily word counts are used as model features, and predictive terms contextualize the reasons for the protest. To forecast civil unrest and infer the reasons for the protest, we consider the problem of Bayesian variable selection for the dynamic logistic regression model and propose using penalized credible regions to select parameters of the updated state vector. This method avoids the need for shrinkage priors, is scalable to high-dimensional dynamic data, and allows the importance of variables to vary in time as new information becomes available. A substantial improvement in both precision and F1-score using this approach is demonstrated through simulation. Finally, we apply the proposed model fitting and variable selection methodology to the problem of forecasting civil unrest in Latin America. Our dynamic logistic regression approach shows improved accuracy compared to the static approach currently used in event prediction and feature selection.
Improved Advanced Biomass Logistics Utilizing Woody and other Feedstocks in the Northeast and Pacific Northwest (Final Report)
Willow and poplar short rotation woody crops (SRWC) have shown promise with regards to environmental benefits and rural development but wide adoption lags due to underdeveloped markets and supply systems. High costs associated with harvesting, handling and transportation (40-60% of delivered cost) have impeded expansion. A better understanding of these systems will create opportunities to improve efficiency, reduce costs, and realize environmental benefits and impacts. The project’s goal was to lower the delivered cost of hybrid poplar in the Northwest and willow in the Northeast by optimizing harvesting and logistics supply systems while maintaining or improving biomass quality along the supply chain. Over 3,400 Mg of biomass and 300 ha of willow and poplar were monitored over a range of crop and field conditions. Feedstock quality as affected by storage and preprocessing were shown to improve or maintain feedstock quality. Modeled harvesting costs ranged from $38–61 Mg -1 dry; when including delivery and preprocessing feedstock costs ranged between $79-83 Mg -1 dry for willow and $106-116 Mg -1 dry for poplar. Costs for willow minimized when hot water extraction and high-moisture densification preprocessing were used. Models also suggest that social and regional factors could further reduce costs. Results will give guidance to feedstock growers, harvesting and logistic operations, biorefinery project developers, and policy makers developing SRWC to support a growing bioeconomy.
Planning, design and logistics of a decision analysis study: The FBI/Ames study involving forensic firearms examiners
This paper describes design and logistical aspects of a decision analysis study to assess the performance of qualified firearms examiners working in accredited laboratories in the United States in terms of accuracy (error rate), repeatability, and reproducibility of decisions involving comparisons of fired bullets and cartridge cases. The purpose of the study was to validate current practice of the forensic discipline of firearms/toolmarks (F/T) examination. It elicited error rate data by counting the number of false positive and false negative conclusions. Preceded by the experimental design, decisions, and logistics described herein, testing was ultimately administered 173 qualified, practicing F/T examiners in public and private crime laboratories. The first round of testing evaluated accuracy, while two subsequent rounds evaluated repeatability and reproducibility of examiner conclusions. This project expands on previous studies by involving many F/T examiners in challenging comparisons and by executing the study in the recommended double-blind format.
Logistics simulation of a remediation effort for a hypothetical radiological contamination scenario
To mitigate the effects following a large-scale nuclear or radiological material release in an urban environment and to expedite recovery, the Integrated Wash-Aid Treatment Emergency Reuse System (IWATERS) was developed. IWATERS consists of three operations: washing contaminated surfaces with an ionic wash solution, collecting, and treating the contaminated wash solution on-site to remove contaminants, and reusing the treated solution throughout operations to preserve the clean water resource. This study develops a framework to simulate the logistics of IWATERS deployment, thereby gaining an understanding of the timeline for decontamination operations. For this purpose, the Analysis of Mobility Platform and GoldSim were leveraged for a hypothetical contamination scenario covering 65,200 m 2 of an urban center. The framework reveals that remediation progress is limited by several resources, notably the availability of vermiculite, a reactive clay that is required to treat the contaminated wash solution. Further, this study also presents how the simulation approach can be used to characterize alternatives to reduce the influence of limited resources on operational progress. Overall, this work lays the foundation for evaluating different decontamination methods through detailed logistics simulation, i.e., by refining simulation assumptions and expanding the range of scenarios the simulation can depict.
Next-Generation Reverse Logistics Networks of Photovoltaic Recycling: Perspectives and Challenges
With the growing adoption of solar energy as a key component of the global energy transition and its new industrial policy (the Inflation Reduction Act and others), the United States is witnessing a significant increase in solar investments. This surge in installations and domestic and reshored manufacturing of solar photovoltaic (PV) panels brings with it a pressing issue: the proper management of end-of-life (EoL) PV panels. As these panels are decommissioned, either due to reaching the end of their lifespans or due to breakage across the various stages of the forward supply chain, it becomes crucial to establish efficient reverse supply chain logistics systems to address the challenges associated with their disposal, while also unlocking the value of the inherent materials that are of critical value for other forward supply chains. This perspective article examines the challenges regarding EoL PV panels and relevant reverse supply chain and logistics networks, and proposes future research directions based on the gaps observed among academic research, industry, and policy-making challenges. We identify the main bottlenecks and hurdles including, among others, the lack of supportive regulations and absence of structured, optimized recycling infrastructure. To this end, it is proposed that the key to achieving a sustainable reverse supply chain network for solar PV panels lies in relentless end-to-end supply chain cost optimization efforts supported by enabling policies. Moreover, it is proposed that designing systematic decision-making modeling frameworks is vital for examining different possibilities and scenarios for state, region or nation-wide optimization of solar PV reverse supply chain networks. Indicative to this effect, we discuss the development of a Resource-Task-Network (RTN)-based model and demonstrate its application and benefits through a case study. We wrap up with conclusions and future research directions.
Study on Intelligent Compaction-Equipment Logistics Scheduling and Propagation Characteristics of Vibration Wave in Nonlinear Systems with Multistability Based on Field Test
The equipment scheduling and propagation characteristics of vibration wave from vibratory roller ⟶ filling material nonlinear systems with multistability are the core problems of subgrade intelligent construction technology, and the logistics scheduling of the equipment is directly related to the construction efficiency. Aiming at the shortages, one typical subgrade located at the Gu’an station of Beijing-Xiong’an city railway is selected to research and finish the field tests; some findings are shown as follows: first, some valuable suggestions about the logistics scheduling of intelligent equipment are proposed, which can break the barriers between the organizations and improve construction efficiency; second, when the vibration wave propagates from the vibratory roller ⟶ surface of filling material ⟶ different buried depths of filling material, the peak acceleration of vibration wave gradually decreases and is hyperbolic distribution approximately. At the same time, the sensitive of attenuation is shown as follows: Z R 2 >0.9), and the concrete functional relationship among different amplitudes of harmonics can be summarized as y = Ae −BX ; fourth, the vibration energy is mainly concentrated near 10–30 Hz in the vibratory roller, but when the vibration wave propagates from vibratory roller⟶filling material, the vibration energy gradually decreases with the increase in depth, and the marginal spectrum gradually changes from one peak to two peaks, that is, 30–50 Hz and 50–100 Hz; fifth, the vibration energy in the vibrational wheel is distributed averagely in the compaction process, and the effective compaction time is two seconds, which will be helpful for revealing the propagation characteristics of vibration wave, optimizing the compaction quality control models and providing some support for the development of intelligent compaction theory of railway subgrade.
Airport Ground Support Equipment Infrastructure & Logistics Electrification Assessment Tool: 2025 Data Development, Modeling and Analysis for DFW
The aviation industry is increasingly turning to modernize freight facilities by integrating electric Ground Support Equipment (eGSE) to enhance operational efficiency of freight facility moving vehicles and equipment. Airports worldwide are adopting eGSE to streamline cargo movement, reduce fuel and maintenance costs, and improve logistics coordination.1 North America, with its advanced aviation infrastructure, leads this transition, leveraging Internet of things (IoT)-enabled automation and zero emission technologies to boost reliability and reduce human errors.2 Electrification of freight facility moving vehicles and equipment boosts turnaround times, improves equipment reliability, and optimizes logistics coordination, giving operators a competitive advantage. With rising fuel price volatility and the pressure to meet stringent performance benchmarks, airports are focusing on cost-effective, scalable solutions for long-term financial and operational gains. To further accelerate electrification, airports are integrating Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs) into rental car fleets and deploying electric baggage carts, requiring strategic investments in charging infrastructure. 3 The shift, however, presents challenges, such as limited technical expertise, high capital costs, and complex procurement processes. By forging strategic partnerships, leveraging advanced technologies, and optimizing infrastructure investments, airports can create a resilient, future-ready ecosystem that enhances the movement of people and goods through electrification-driven efficiency. Supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO), this electrification effort provides a scalable, cost-effective solution to improve airport freight operations. Through targeted investments and innovation, airports enhance efficiency, reduce costs, and meet performance benchmarks while advancing toward a resilient, electrified future.