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Clean Energy Revolving Loan Funds: International Experience [Slides]

Tunisia’s Energy Transition Fund (FTE), created in 2013, was established to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy projects in the public and private sectors. To overcome financing challenges related to the energy transition, Tunisia’s National Agency for Energy Conservation (ANME) seeks both to strengthen available financial resources and to develop innovative financing structures. Revolving Loan Funds (RLFs) are one such innovative financing structure, used by countries around the world to foster the development of distributed clean energy projects. This report aims to inform policy makers and various stakeholders on the opportunity to design an RLF by drawing on successful experiences from other countries. Specifically, this report provides analytical support for discussions with ANME and its partners to develop an RLF in the context of Tunisia. It outlines the 12 essential steps for establishing a RLF and includes detailed case studies demonstrating successful RLF implementation across various contexts.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY

Power now, pay later: the evolution of U.S. residential solar financing

Most U.S. residential rooftop solar customers finance their solar purchases through loans or by buying power from third-party owned systems. Prior research demonstrates how third-party ownership (TPO) models such as leases emerged in the early 2010s and accelerated solar adoption by low- and moderate-income households while driving market concentration in the installation industry. Since 2015, loans have emerged as a prevalent financing alternative, but the potential effects of loans on the customer base and industry remain understudied. Here, we fill that research gap by developing a methodology to identify loan-financed and third-party owned systems in a household-level solar adopter data set. The data suggest that loans accounted for increasing solar market shares from 2017 until reaching as high as 70% in 2022, but that the market has since shifted back to TPO. The data show that TPO adopters in our sample earned about 16%–18% less and loan recipients earned 3%–7% less, at the median, than customers who self-financed systems. These results reaffirm prior research showing that TPO has accelerated low- and moderate-income adoption and that loans have likewise expanded the customer base to a lesser extent. The results suggest that loan-financed systems entail around a 16%–26% price premium that is only partly explained by loan fees. Finally, the data suggest that the emergence of loans has likely reduced market concentration in the rooftop solar industry.

financing

ReVise: A Human-AI Interface for Incremental Algorithmic Recourse

The recent adoption of artificial intelligence in socio-technical systems raises concerns about the black-box nature of the resulting decisions in fields such as hiring, finance, admissions, etc. If data subjects—such as job applicants, loan applicants, and students—receive an unfavorable outcome, they may be interested in algorithmic recourse, which involves updating certain features to yield a more favorable result when re-evaluated by algorithmic decision-making. Unfortunately, when individuals do not fully understand the incremental steps needed to change their circumstances, they risk following misguided paths that can lead to significant, long-term adverse consequences. Existing recourse approaches focus exclusively on the final recourse goal but neglect the possible incremental steps to reach the goal with real-life constraints, user preferences, and model artifacts. To address this gap, we formulate a visual analytic workflow for incremental recourse planning in collaboration with AI/ML experts and contribute an interactive visualization interface that helps data subjects efficiently navigate the recourse alternatives and make an informed decision. We also present one of the many usage scenarios, developed during exploratory feedback sessions with twelve graduate students using a real-world dataset, which demonstrates that our approach can be instrumental for data subjects in choosing a suitable recourse path.

algorithmic recourse

Community Solar for All: Key Findings for State Energy Offices and State LIHEAP Agencies from the Inclusive Shared Solar Initiative

Despite the significant potential for community solar to reduce energy burdens and costs, it has largely remained out of reach for low-income households. While the U.S. community solar market has grown considerably over the last decade, as of December 2022 low to moderate-income (LMI) community solar represented just 2% of the overall market. Effective community solar policies and program decisions can help address this dynamic. State laws, policies, and program rules are critical to the development of community solar programs and projects that are affordable for and cater to the needs of LMI utility customers, who often face disproportionately high energy costs relative to their incomes. This report explores how two sets of state agencies in particular — State and Territory Energy Offices and State Low Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP) Agencies —can help to streamline and prioritize the delivery of affordable and accessible shared solar. State Energy Offices are often involved in community solar policy and program design from inception, whether by supporting the enactment of enabling legislation or informing the development of program rules and regulations. State Energy Offices may also be charged with administering or overseeing the implementation of statewide community solar programs and, through the U.S. State Energy Program and other sources of funding, can provide resources and loans that enhance community, developer, and utility confidence and capacity to build, host, and derive value from projects. Relatedly, as implementers of federal LIHEAP block grants, State LIHEAP Agencies have a deep understanding of the needs of lower-income households and can help inform the design and delivery of community solar programs.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Expanding Collaborative Capacity to Address Climate Resiliency in the Great Lakes Region

U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Science, Award DE-SC0023215, Expanding Collaborative Capacity to Address Climate Resiliency in the Great Lakes Region, supported capacity and partnership building between researchers at Central Michigan University (CMU) and scientists at DOE laboratories. The work involved identifying potential collaborations both internal to CMU and between CMU researchers and DOE staff, developing collaborative research proposals, and partnering on pilot-scale research projects focused on enhancing resilience of Great Lakes communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure to global change and environmental stressors. DOE funds supported travel, time to develop collaborations, investigate new research pathways, and draft grant proposals, and a loan of DOE equipment to collect pilot data in support of future work. The project achieved its goal of strengthening research collaborations between interdisciplinary researchers at CMU and establishing new collaborations and partnerships between CMU and DOE scientists. These collaborations resulted in 5 pre-applications and 4 full applications for funding to DOE BER Funding Opportunities, a successfully funded DOE BER award (DE-SC0025260), a new pilot project that leveraged DOE resources (AquaBOT) to improve understanding of water quality conditions in Michigan rivers, and two presentations of preliminary results at national scientific conferences. This project’s outcomes will benefit the Great Lakes Region via new lines of collaborative research focused on improving the resilience of Michigan communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure.

58 GEOSCIENCES

Feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors in Africa

This report assesses the feasibility and strategic implications of deploying nuclear power reactors, including large-scale plants, advanced small modular reactors (SMRs), and microreactors, in African countries. Case studies focus on South Africa, Egypt, Kenya, Ghana, and Nigeria, examining nuclear energy’s role in Africa’s rapidly evolving energy landscape, marked by fast-growing demand, significant electricity access gaps, increasing renewable penetration, and strong policy commitments to industrialization and energy security. Several U.S. reactor technologies and designs are considered based on their development status and readiness for deployment. The analysis finds that nuclear power can provide reliable, clean baseload and flexible generation, as well as high-temperature process heat for desalination, hydrogen production, and industrial applications. However, suitability is highly country-specific, depending on grid size and stability, transmission capacity, cooling water availability, regulatory readiness, and fuel supply chains. Near-term deployment opportunities are strongest for light-water reactors (such as NuScale, BWRX-300, AP300, and SMR-300) that use low-enriched uranium and build on proven technology. More advanced concepts, including gas-cooled, sodium-cooled, molten-salt cooled reactors, and microreactors, will likely be relevant for African deployment in the 2030s or later, contingent on demonstration projects, high-assay low-enriched uranium (HALEU) fuel availability, and mature international licensing frameworks. Economic analysis shows that SMRs are capital-intensive, with projected overnight costs for 300 MWe units in 2025 ranging from approximately 1.4 to 2.6 billion USD per module. The levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) is highly sensitive to the weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Given typically higher financing costs and utility balance-sheet weaknesses in many African countries, bankable project structures will require sovereign guarantees, robust offtake arrangements, and layered financing from export credit agencies, development finance institutions, and vendor nations. Comparisons with recent large nuclear projects in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Egypt underscore the central role of state-backed loans, long tenors, and concessional terms. Country case studies illustrate a spectrum of readiness and opportunity. South Africa operates two 920 MWe pressurized light water reactors (totaling 1,840 MWe) at Koeberg and has the most mature regulatory and industrial base, positioning it as a prime candidate for both large reactors and SMRs to replace coal, support desalination, and anchor industrial hubs. Egypt is constructing four VVER-1200 units at El Dabaa with strong state leadership and could later complement this fleet with SMRs for coastal and industrial applications. Kenya and Ghana are advancing through IAEA Milestones with growing institutional capacity and clear interest in SMRs that match their smaller grids and industrialization plans. Nigeria has the largest demand potential but faces acute constraints in grid reliability, project bankability, and regulatory capacity; targeted deployments of large reactors and SMRs near coastal or industrial sites could have high impact if accompanied by major grid upgrades and institutional reforms. The report identifies cross-cutting challenges such as financing, political continuity, public acceptance, nonproliferation and security, waste and back-end management, regulatory capacity, grid adequacy, and long deployment timelines for first-of-a-kind designs, and ANL/NSE-26/3 ii proposes broad directions for resolution. These include stronger multifaceted financing for nuclear, long-term national energy strategies that transcend electoral cycles, proactive stakeholder engagement, strengthened regional and national regulators, and systematic workforce development through centers of excellence and expanded training. The United States should develop partnerships with African countries and offer end-to-end nuclear package similar to those used effectively by competitors: coordinated project development, state-backed financing, long-term fuel services, and durable in-country support through regional offices and sustained workforce/regulatory training. With timely planning, sustained political commitment, and appropriate financing and institutional support, nuclear energy, both large reactors and advanced SMRs, can become a meaningful, though not dominant, pillar of Africa’s future power mix, enhancing energy security, enabling industrial growth, and supporting climate goals.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS

Battery Material Synthesis and Scalability using a 50L Taylor Vortex Reactor (Final CRADA Report)

Under this agreement, Laminar will loan Argonne a 50L Taylor Vortex Reactor (TVR) and provide mechanical troubleshooting guidance and consulting to ensure the successful setup of the pilot-scale synthesis process. The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) will allocate funding for the labor and materials required for the study. To evaluate the physical and electrochemical properties of the materials produced by the 50L TVR, Argonne will perform comprehensive characterizations, including XRD, SEM, PSA, ICP, tap density, and coin half-cell testing. Throughout the collaboration, Argonne will provide feedback and recommendations for mechanical improvements to the reactor system. Furthermore, Argonne will credit Laminar as a collaborator in any presentations or publications resulting from data generated by the system. Laminar will retain no rights to experimental results or intellectual property generated through the experiments conducted with the 50L TVR at Argonne.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Evaluating the potential of short-term instrument deployment to improve distributed wind resource assessment

Distributed wind projects, which are connected at the distribution level of an electricity system or in off-grid applications to serve specific or local energy needs, often rely solely on wind resource models to establish wind speed and energy generation expectations. Historically, anemometer loan programs have provided an affordable avenue for more accurate onsite wind resource assessment, and the lowering cost of lidar systems has shown similar advantages for more recent assessments. While a full 12 months of onsite wind measurement is the standard for correcting model-based long-term wind speed estimates for utility-scale wind farms, the time and capital investment involved in gathering onsite measurements must be reconciled with the energy needs and funding opportunities that drive expedient deployment of distributed wind projects. Much literature exists to quantify the performance of correcting long-term wind speed estimates with 1 or more years of observational data, but few studies explore the impacts of correcting with months-long observational periods. This study aims to answer the question of how short you can go in terms of the observational time period needed to make impactful improvements to model-based long-term wind speed estimates. Three algorithms, multivariable linear regression, adaptive regression splines, and regression trees, are evaluated for their skill at correcting long-term wind resource estimates from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis version 5 (ERA5) using months-long periods of observational data from 66 locations across the US. On average, correction with even 1 month of observations provides significant improvement over the baseline ERA5 wind speed estimates and produces median bias magnitudes and relative errors within 0.22 m s −1 and 4 percentage points of the median bias magnitudes and relative errors achieved using the standard 12 months of data for correction. However, in cases when the shortest observational periods (1 to 2 months) used for correction are not well correlated with the overlapping ERA5 reference, the resultant long-term wind speed errors are worse than those produced using ERA5 without correction. Summer months, which are characterized by weaker relative wind speeds and standard deviations for most of the evaluation sites, tend to produce the worst results for long-term correction using months-long observations. The three tested algorithms perform similarly for long-term wind speed bias; however, regression trees perform notably worse than multivariable linear regression and adaptive regression splines in terms of correlation when using 6 months or less of observational data for correction. Translating the analysis to wind energy, median relative errors in the capacity factor are on average within 10 % using 1 month of training. If the observation period used for correction is not well correlated with the reference data, however, misrepresentation of the observed capacity factor can be substantial. The risk associated with poor correlation between the observed and reference datasets decreases with increasing training period length. In the worst-correlation scenarios, the median capacity factor relative errors from using 1, 3, and 6 months are within 47 %, 26 %, and 16 %, respectively.

17 WIND ENERGY

Toyota Highlander FCHV (CRADA CRD-12-00469 Final Report)

This project relates to the loan of four Toyota Mirai FCEV-adv vehicles to NLR to provide a load (vehicles to fill with hydrogen) to our fueling station research facility to study hydrogen fueling infrastructure performance using 700 bar precooled hydrogen at ESIF’s Hydrogen Infrastructure Testing and Research Facility (HITRF) facility.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Addendum: Carbon-negative production of acetone and isopropanol by gas fermentation at industrial pilot scale

In response to a reader’s questions, here we provide additional information about the life cycle analysis (LCA) performed in this paper. The goal of the LCA was to understand the potential environmental benefits of our reported synthetic biology pathways for producing acetone and isopropanol by comparing greenhouse gas emissions to those from conventional, virgin fossil production routes. Below we expand on the rationale and sources underlying the methodological choices we made in the LCA, including our use of a cradle-to-gate system boundary, an avoided emissions credit and the descriptor “carbon-negative.” Finally, we also discuss differences in carbon accounting between an LCA framework and a carbon dioxide removal (CDR) framework.

metabolic engineering

Meteor over New York City: Brines in a primitive CM asteroid

The CI (Ivuna-type) carbonaceous material returned from asteroids Ryugu and Bennu contain mobilized sodium from the evaporation or freezing of liquid water into brines, shedding light on the internal structure of ice-rich CI-type worlds and the formation of prebiotic organic compounds. The formation of brines has not been demonstrated in CM (Mighei-type) carbonaceous chondrites, which also supplied organic matter to the early Earth. Here, we announce the fall of a primitive meteorite from a daytime fireball over the New York metropolitan area in July 2024. It is a CM2 breccia that contains unique CM1 clasts rich in water and sodium. The meteorite contains abundant amino acids and other products of organic chemistry in brines that reveal subsurface processes on CM-type asteroid parent bodies.

Geosciences