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At least 19 records

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Workshop Report

On July 10 and 11, 2024, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and RMI led a workshop in Aurora, Colorado, to explore novel and proactive approaches to electrification and load growth while minimizing risks and costs to customers. Over the next decade, a unique opportunity exists to invest strategically in the electricity system to enable electrification across the transportation, industrial, and building sectors and respond to data and technology-based load growth. However, current utility and regulatory planning practices are insufficient to identify and enable the right investments, and work must be done to reduce the risk and decisional uncertainty faced by utility regulatory commissions and utilities. Ensuring timely electrification investments may require new approaches to address risk, uncertainty, prudence, and cost recovery. Understanding the decision-making process and information needs of utilities and regulators is critical. New policies (or application of policies), financial tools, systems analysis, regulatory mechanisms, and enhanced process transparency may be required. The workshop's goal was to identify proactive regulatory approaches for electrification and load growth that minimize costs and risks to customers. Our intention was that the conversations and the resulting solutions and takeaways would be specific and tactical rather than general and theoretical and that together we would create actionable next steps for key actors in the system, including utilities, regulators, thought leaders, researchers, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). This report is intended to provide workshop attendees with a record and summary of the discussion and proposals raised at the workshop and to provide interested entities who did not attend, such as other regulators, policymakers, utilities, and U.S. DOE offices, with an understanding of what was discussed and with ideas to explore in their organizations.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Unlocking load growth at the grid edge: Practices for managing, recovering, and allocating distribution system investments

Utilities and utility regulators are preparing to make significant investments in the electricity distribution system driven by expected load growth in coming years and decades. Regulators will be tasked with vetting investment proposals and implementing cost recovery and allocation mechanisms. In particular, state regulators are anticipating the need to make proactive distribution system investments, building the capability to serve new load in advance of demand. This report focuses on load growth from homes and businesses that adopt electric vehicles and heat pump heating technologies. Through a review of legislation and regulatory dockets in a subset of states, we provide insights into emerging utility and regulatory practices to recover and allocate costs of electrification-driven distribution system investments necessary to accommodate these technologies. Our review focused on utility electrification programs, line extension policies, and proactive investments. Our report is largely descriptive, offering detailed information about approaches different state commissions and utilities have implemented to inform future decision-making.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Quantifying the Effect of Economic Development Zones on Electrical Load Growth in Kentucky [Slides]

The Kentucky Energy and Environment Cabinet has recently undertaken a comprehensive effort to map and catalog potential economic development sites across the state. The purpose of this technical assistance is to quantify the potential impact of developing designated sites on Kentucky's electricity load growth, providing insights at both state and county level considering the next 10 years. This analysis should explicitly incorporate and address key project uncertainties by developing various load growth scenarios that account for development scale, site specificity, and sector variability. The need for a site-specific analysis comes from the understanding that conventional econometric (top-down) load forecasting models cannot sufficiently isolate or predict the discrete load increases resulting from the development of these unique and targeted economic sites.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Nevada Wildland Fires: Mapping Historical Burned Areas and Identifying Drivers of Fuel Load Growth to Inform Desert Tortoise Habitat Management in Southern Nevada

Wildfire frequency and intensity in the Mojave desert are increasing, driven by invasive grasses that outcompete native vegetation not well-adapted to wildfire. These grasses, primarily cheatgrass (Bromus tectorum) and red brome (Bromus rubens), and the wildfires that occur when the grasses ignite, are a serious threat to the critically endangered Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii). Declining Mojave desert tortoise populations are of great concern to project partners, the Bureau of Land Management Southern Nevada District Office, the US Forest Service’s Rocky Mountain Research Station, and the US Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service’s Arid Lands Ecology Lab, who currently lack the resources for fire recovery studies essential for informed fire and invasive grass management. To address this gap, the team utilized NASA Earth observations including Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Terra MODIS, Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI), to analyze trends in burned areas over the past 20 years through historic burn maps and to examine fuel load growth drivers, with a focus on invasive vegetation. These historical burn maps revealed a pattern of precipitation anomalies that strongly correlate with higher Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. Years with significant precipitation and NDVI spikes led to greater fuel load in the dry season and larger burns. Additionally, El Niño years correlated significantly with precipitation anomalies which may provide our partners with insights into burn trends and enable better allocation of fuel load treatment practices. However, while identifying drivers of fuel load growth proved feasible, a lack of in situ data hindered attempts to analyze pre-fire growth of invasive grasses compared with native grasses. Despite this limitation, the project demonstrated the feasibility of using Earth observations for wildfire and habitat management, ultimately benefiting conservation efforts for the Mojave desert tortoise.

fuel load↗

Proactive Regulatory Approaches to Electrification and Load Growth: Pre-read Document to Support the July 10-11 th Workshop

This document summarizes objectives and context related to a DOE-funded workshop on proactive regulatory approaches to electrification and load growth. It briefly summarizes some of the regulatory barriers to pursuing a proactive approach and some of the risks associated with such an approach. It then summarizes a selection of recent utility proposals and public utility commission actions related to proactive approaches.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Digital Assurance for Grid Reliability in the Era of Large Load Growth

The rapid expansion of large electric loads is reshaping the operational and regulatory landscape of the U.S. electric grid. These facilities are reaching new scales of expansion, now exceeding a gigawatt per site, and their highly sensitive, digitally driven behaviors introduce new reliability risks. Recent grid events, including large load losses following routine transmission disturbances, highlight the consequences of limited ride-through capability, inconsistent protection settings, inadequate modeling, and lack of behind-the-meter visibility. Parallels to earlier integration challenges of new grid technologies suggest that the grid’s existing processes, standards, and interconnection frameworks are no longer adequate for emerging large loads. This brief synthesizes lessons from the evolution of inverter-based resource regulation and applies them to large-load integration. It identifies critical gaps in modeling accuracy, interconnection processes, performance standards, and compliance mechanisms. Technical recommendations emphasize advanced monitoring, improved modeling, coordinated communication protocols, modernized substations, and structured behind-the-meter control schemes. Collectively, these measures provide a roadmap to maintain bulk power system reliability while enabling the continued growth of large, electrified digital infrastructure.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

The role of crack blunting in sustained load crack growth

Sustained load crack growth occurs in metals following critical crack extension above KIc and in aggressive environments while maintaining a constant load below KIc. In this paper, crack arrest measurements are performed on precracked, 0.0254-m thick, side-grooved WOL specimens exposed to 34.5 MN/sq m hydrogen at ambient temperature. The specimens are loaded inside a pressure vessel while in contact with the high pressure hydrogen environment. Crack growth is observed with each loading increment. The crack blunting observed in the fracture mechanics tests on 321 stainless steel is found to be similar to that produced in the 321 stainless steel tensile specimens. Rounding and branching of the crack decreases the effective stress intensity at the crack tip. It is possible, for materials in which cracks tend to blunt or branch in hydrogen, that although cracks will arrest at a relatively high stress intensity in decreasing stress intensity test, a crack may begin to grow at a lower stress intensity when loaded in hydrogen, and the crack may continue to grow when the stress intensity is continually increasing.

Walter, R. J.↗

An investigation of fracture toughness, fatigue-crack growth, sustained-load flaw growth, and impact properties of three pressure vessel steels

The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels is shown to not decrease significantly with decreasing temperature from room temperature to about 244 K (-20 F.). The elastic fracture toughness of the three steels increased with increasing specimen width and thickness. The fatigue-crack-growth data for all three steels fall into relatively narrow scatter bands on plots of rate against stress-intensity range. An equation is shown to predict the upper bounds of the scatter bands reasonably well. Charpy impact energies decreased with decreasing temperature in the nominal temperature range from room temperature to 244 K (-20 F). The nil-ductility temperatures of the steels are discussed.

Hudson, C. M.↗

Data Privacy for the Grid: Toward a Data Privacy Standard for Inverter-Based and Distributed Energy Resources

The traditional approach to planning the distribution grid has focused on reliability in the context of gradual and reasonably predictable load growth. Forecasts of load growth, combined with asset management practices, were used by system planners to identify upgrades to the system to maintain or improve reliability. The decisions, typically based within load flow analysis tools, included considerations about contingency scenarios and corporate forecasts (i.e., top-down predictions at a summary level of what would happen in a particular area that could impact load growth and behavior). As a result, today, this traditional approach no longer fits all purposes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Aircraft fatigue and crack growth considering loads by structural component

The indisputable 1968 C-130 fatigue/crack growth data is reviewed to obtain additional useful information on fatigue and crack growth. The proven Load Environment Model concept derived empirically from F-105D multichannel recorder data is refined to a simpler method by going from 8 to 5 variables in the spectra without a decrease in accuracy. This approach provides the true fatigue/crack growth and load environment by structural component for both fatigue and strength design. Methods are presented for defining fatigue scatter and damage at crack initiation. These design tools and criteria may be used for both metal and composite aircraft structure.

Yost, J. D.↗

Space station electrical power distribution analysis using a load flow approach

The space station's electrical power system will evolve and grow in a manner much similar to the present terrestrial electrical power system utilities. The initial baseline reference configuration will contain more than 50 nodes or busses, inverters, transformers, overcurrent protection devices, distribution lines, solar arrays, and/or solar dynamic power generating sources. The system is designed to manage and distribute 75 KW of power single phase or three phase at 20 KHz, and grow to a level of 300 KW steady state, and must be capable of operating at a peak of 450 KW for 5 to 10 min. In order to plan far into the future and keep pace with load growth, a load flow power system analysis approach must be developed and utilized. This method is a well known energy assessment and management tool that is widely used throughout the Electrical Power Utility Industry. The results of a comprehensive evaluation and assessment of an Electrical Distribution System Analysis Program (EDSA) is discussed. Its potential use as an analysis and design tool for the 20 KHz space station electrical power system is addressed.

Emanuel, Ervin M.↗

Sustained load crack growth design data for Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy tanks containing hydrazine

Sustained load crack growth data for Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy in hydrazine per MIL-P-26536 and refined hydrazine are presented. Fracture mechanics data on crack growth thresholds for heat-treated forgings, aged and unaged welds, and aged and unaged heat-affected zones are reported. Fracture mechanics design curves of crack growth threshold stress intensity versus temperature are generated from 40 to 71 C.

Lewis, J. C.↗

Sustained load crack growth design data for Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy tanks containing hydrazine

Results are presented for an experimental study intended to provide sustained load crack growth (SLCG) data for Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy tanks containing MIL-P-26536 hydrazine and refined hydrazine. Fracture mechanics data on crack growth threshold for heat-treated forgings, aged and unaged welds, and aged and unaged heat-affected zones (HAZ) are presented. All tests were made on uniaxially loaded fracture mechanics specimens involving part-through cracks, and an electrical discharge machined notch was used to start the crack. Fracture mechanics design curves of crack growth threshold stress intensity versus temperature are obtained for the temperature range 40-71 C. Major conclusions are that extreme susceptibility to SLCG in hydrazine is a universal property of unaged weld metal in Ti-6Al-4V titanium alloy of normal interstitial content, and that aging both weld metal and HAZ at 510 C for 4 hr after welding completely removes all susceptibility to SLCG induced by hydrazine, with less susceptibility to SLCG in refined hydrazine.

Lewis, J. C.↗