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At least 19 records

NASA Products to Enhance Energy Utility Load Forecasting

Existing energy load forecasting tools rely upon historical load and forecasted weather to predict load within energy company service areas. The shortcomings of load forecasts are often the result of weather forecasts that are not at a fine enough spatial or temporal resolution to capture local-scale weather events. This project aims to improve the performance of load forecasting tools through the integration of high-resolution, weather-related NASA Earth Science Data, such as temperature, relative humidity, and wind speed. Three companies are participating in operational testing one natural gas company, and two electric providers. Operational results comparing load forecasts with and without NASA weather forecasts have been generated since March 2010. We have worked with end users at the three companies to refine selection of weather forecast information and optimize load forecast model performance. The project will conclude in 2012 with transitioning documented improvements from the inclusion of NASA forecasts for sustained use by energy utilities nationwide in a variety of load forecasting tools. In addition, Battelle has consulted with energy companies nationwide to document their information needs for long-term planning, in light of climate change and regulatory impacts.

Lough, G.

PC4CAST: A tool for DSN load forecasting and capacity planning

Effectively planning the use and evolution of the Deep Space Network (DSN) is a complex problem involving many parameters. The tool that models many of these complexities, yet requires simple structured inputs and provides concise easy-to-understand metrics to aid in the planning process is discussed. The tool, PC4CAST, is used for both load forecasting (predicting how well planned that DSN resources meet expected demand) and as a decision support tool in the capacity-planning process (determining the relative benefits of capacity expansion options). It is now in use in the TDA Planning Office, has been used in numerous studies, and is also being used by the JPL Multimission Operations System Office (MOSO) as an integral part of Resource Allocation Team activities. Experience using the tool has helped to identify additional requirements that will further improve the planning process, which can be met by future PC4CAST versions.

Loyola, S. J.

Advanced Intelligent System Application to Load Forecasting and Control for Hybrid Electric Bus

The primary motivation for this research emanates from providing a decision support system to the electric bus operators in the municipal and urban localities which will guide the operators to maintain an optimal compromise among the noise level, pollution level, fuel usage etc. This study is backed up by our previous studies on study of battery characteristics, permanent magnet DC motor studies and electric traction motor size studies completed in the first year. The operator of the Hybrid Electric Car must determine optimal power management schedule to meet a given load demand for different weather and road conditions. The decision support system for the bus operator comprises three sub-tasks viz. forecast of the electrical load for the route to be traversed divided into specified time periods (few minutes); deriving an optimal 'plan' or 'preschedule' based on the load forecast for the entire time-horizon (i.e., for all time periods) ahead of time; and finally employing corrective control action to monitor and modify the optimal plan in real-time. A fully connected artificial neural network (ANN) model is developed for forecasting the kW requirement for hybrid electric bus based on inputs like climatic conditions, passenger load, road inclination, etc. The ANN model is trained using back-propagation algorithm employing improved optimization techniques like projected Lagrangian technique. The pre-scheduler is based on a Goal-Programming (GP) optimization model with noise, pollution and fuel usage as the three objectives. GP has the capability of analyzing the trade-off among the conflicting objectives and arriving at the optimal activity levels, e.g., throttle settings. The corrective control action or the third sub-task is formulated as an optimal control model with inputs from the real-time data base as well as the GP model to minimize the error (or deviation) from the optimal plan. These three activities linked with the ANN forecaster proving the output to the GP model which in turn produces the pre-schedule of the optimal control model. Some preliminary results based on a hypothetical test case will be presented for the load forecasting module. The computer codes for the three modules will be made available fe adoption by bus operating agencies. Sample results will be provided using these models. The software will be a useful tool for supporting the control systems for the Electric Bus project of NASA.

Momoh, James

Aerosol Lidar and MODIS Satellite Comparisons for Future Aerosol Loading Forecast

Knowledge of the concentration and distribution of atmospheric aerosols using both airborne lidar and satellite instruments is a field of active research. An aircraft based aerosol lidar has been used to study the distribution of atmospheric aerosols in the California Central Valley and eastern US coast. Concurrently, satellite aerosol retrievals, from the MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) instrument aboard the Terra and Aqua satellites, were take over the Central Valley. The MODIS Level 2 aerosol data product provides retrieved ambient aerosol optical properties (e.g., optical depth (AOD) and size distribution) globally over ocean and land at a spatial resolution of 10 km. The Central Valley topography was overlaid with MODIS AOD (5x5 sq km resolution) and the aerosol scattering vertical profiles from a lidar flight. Backward air parcel trajectories for the lidar data show that air from the Pacific and northern part of the Central Valley converge confining the aerosols to the lower valley region and below the mixed layer. Below an altitude of 1 km, the lidar aerosol and MODIS AOD exhibit good agreement. Both data sets indicate a high presence of aerosols near Bakersfield and the Tehachapi Mountains. These and other results to be presented indicate that the majority of the aerosols are below the mixed layer such that the MODIS AOD should correspond well with surface measurements. Lidar measurements will help interpret satellite AOD retrievals so that one day they can be used on a routine basis for prediction of boundary layer aerosol pollution events.

DeYoung, Russell

Forecasting of loading on the Deep Space Network for proposed future NASA mission sets

The paper describes a computer program, DSNLOAD, which provides the Deep Space Network (DSN) loading information given a proposed future NASA mission set. The DSNLOAD model includes required pre- and post-calibration periods, and station 'overhead' such as maintenance or 'down' time. The analysis is presented which transforms station view period data for the mission set into loading matrices used to assess loading requirement. Assessment of future loading on the DSN for a set of NASA missions by estimating the tracking situation and presenting the DSN loading data, and a flowchart for selecting a possible future mission, determining a heliocentric orbit for the mission, generating view period schedules, and converting these schedules into basic loading data for each mission for each station are given. The tracking schedule model which considers the tracking schedule to be represented by passes of maximum required length and centered within the view period of available tracking time for each mission is described, and, finally, an example of typical loading study is provided.

Webb, W. A.

Collaborative Resource Allocation

Collaborative Resource Allocation Networking Environment (CRANE) Version 0.5 is a prototype created to prove the newest concept of using a distributed environment to schedule Deep Space Network (DSN) antenna times in a collaborative fashion. This program is for all space-flight and terrestrial science project users and DSN schedulers to perform scheduling activities and conflict resolution, both synchronously and asynchronously. Project schedulers can, for the first time, participate directly in scheduling their tracking times into the official DSN schedule, and negotiate directly with other projects in an integrated scheduling system. A master schedule covers long-range, mid-range, near-real-time, and real-time scheduling time frames all in one, rather than the current method of separate functions that are supported by different processes and tools. CRANE also provides private workspaces (both dynamic and static), data sharing, scenario management, user control, rapid messaging (based on Java Message Service), data/time synchronization, workflow management, notification (including emails), conflict checking, and a linkage to a schedule generation engine. The data structure with corresponding database design combines object trees with multiple associated mortal instances and relational database to provide unprecedented traceability and simplify the existing DSN XML schedule representation. These technologies are used to provide traceability, schedule negotiation, conflict resolution, and load forecasting from real-time operations to long-range loading analysis up to 20 years in the future. CRANE includes a database, a stored procedure layer, an agent-based middle tier, a Web service wrapper, a Windows Integrated Analysis Environment (IAE), a Java application, and a Web page interface.

Wang, Yeou-Fang

The long-term forecast of station view periods

Using dynamical systems theory, a definite integral is obtained that gives the average view period of a ground station for spacecraft in circular orbits. Minor restrictions exist on the class of circular orbits to which this method can be applied. This method avoids the propagation of the orbit, which requires a lot of resources, and simplifies the algorithm used to compute the mean station view period. The integral is used for long-term station load forecast studies. It also provides a quantitative measure of the effectiveness of a ground station as a function of its latitude.

Lo, M. W.

The scheduling of tracking times for interplanetary spacecraft on the Deep Space Network

The Deep Space Network (DSN) is a network of tracking stations, located throughout the globe, used to track spacecraft for NASA's interplanetary missions. This paper describes a computer program, DSNTRAK, which provides an optimum daily tracking schedule for the DSN given the view periods at each station for a mission set of n spacecraft, where n is between 2 and 6. The objective function is specified in terms of relative total daily tracking time requirements between the n spacecraft. Linear programming is used to maximize the total daily tracking time and determine an optimal daily tracking schedule consistent with DSN station capabilities. DSNTRAK is used as part of a procedure to provide DSN load forecasting information for proposed future NASA mission sets.

Webb, W. A.

Appropriateness in using LANDSAT in development energy related data bases

The use of automated classification systems in the field of resource management and resource inventory is discussed. Applications of LANDSAT classification are outlined and include: energy load forecasting based upon land use inventories and change analysis, impact analysis of activities related to energy extraction, capability/suitability mapping in support of generation and substation location and transmission line routing, and assessment of solar energy potential in a highly urbanized setting where land values are high. It is found that the use of LANDSAT data is adequate for general inventories where few data categories are required, where resolution of data to around 150 acres minimum is required, and where no other complete imagery set can be obtained.

Harnden, E.

Interactive Management and Updating of Spatial Data Bases

The decision making process, whether for power plant siting, load forecasting or energy resource planning, invariably involves a blend of analytical methods and judgement. Management decisions can be improved by the implementation of techniques which permit an increased comprehension of results from analytical models. Even where analytical procedures are not required, decisions can be aided by improving the methods used to examine spatially and temporally variant data. How the use of computer aided planning (CAP) programs and the selection of a predominant data structure, can improve the decision making process is discussed.

French, P.

National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Earth Science Research for Energy Management: Overview of Energy Issues and an Assessment of the Potential for Application of NASA Earth Science Research - Part 1

Effective management of energy resources is critical for the U.S. economy, the environment, and, more broadly, for sustainable development and alleviating poverty worldwide. The scope of energy management is broad, ranging from energy production and end use to emissions monitoring and mitigation and long-term planning. Given the extensive NASA Earth science research on energy and related weather and climate-related parameters, and rapidly advancing energy technologies and applications, there is great potential for increased application of NASA Earth science research to selected energy management issues and decision support tools. The NASA Energy Management Program Element is already involved in a number of projects applying NASA Earth science research to energy management issues, with a focus on solar and wind renewable energy and developing interests in energy modeling, short-term load forecasting, energy efficient building design, and biomass production.

Atmospheric models

An Overview of ANN Application in the Power Industry

The paper presents a survey on the development and experience with artificial neural net (ANN) applications for electric power systems, with emphasis on operational systems. The organization and constraints of electric utilities are reviewed, motivations for investigating ANN are identified, and a current assessment is given from the experience of 2400 projects using ANN for load forecasting, alarm processing, fault detection, component fault diagnosis, static and dynamic security analysis, system planning, and operation planning.

artificial neural networks ANN electric power syst

An Example of Unsupervised Networks Kohonen's Self-Organizing Feature Map

Kohonen's self-organizing feature map belongs to a class of unsupervised artificial neural network commonly referred to as topographic maps. It serves two purposes, the quantization and dimensionality reduction of date. A short description of its history and its biological context is given. We show that the inherent classification properties of the feature map make it a suitable candidate for solving the classification task in power system areas like load forecasting, fault diagnosis and security assessment.

Kohonen Feature Map

DSN Resource Scheduling

TIGRAS is client-side software, which provides tracking-station equipment planning, allocation, and scheduling services to the DSMS (Deep Space Mission System). TIGRAS provides functions for schedulers to coordinate the DSN (Deep Space Network) antenna usage time and to resolve the resource usage conflicts among tracking passes, antenna calibrations, maintenance, and system testing activities. TIGRAS provides a fully integrated multi-pane graphical user interface for all scheduling operations. This is a great improvement over the legacy VAX VMS command line user interface. TIGRAS has the capability to handle all DSN resource scheduling aspects from long-range to real time. TIGRAS assists NASA mission operations for DSN tracking of station equipment resource request processes from long-range load forecasts (ten years or longer), to midrange, short-range, and real-time (less than one week) emergency tracking plan changes. TIGRAS can be operated by NASA mission operations worldwide to make schedule requests for the DSN station equipment.

Wang, Yeou-Fang

Software for Allocating Resources in the Deep Space Network

TIGRAS 2.0 is a computer program designed to satisfy a need for improved means for analyzing the tracking demands of interplanetary space-flight missions upon the set of ground antenna resources of the Deep Space Network (DSN) and for allocating those resources. Written in Microsoft Visual C++, TIGRAS 2.0 provides a single rich graphical analysis environment for use by diverse DSN personnel, by connecting to various data sources (relational databases or files) based on the stages of the analyses being performed. Notable among the algorithms implemented by TIGRAS 2.0 are a DSN antenna-load-forecasting algorithm and a conflict-aware DSN schedule-generating algorithm. Computers running TIGRAS 2.0 can also be connected using SOAP/XML to a Web services server that provides analysis services via the World Wide Web. TIGRAS 2.0 supports multiple windows and multiple panes in each window for users to view and use information, all in the same environment, to eliminate repeated switching among various application programs and Web pages. TIGRAS 2.0 enables the use of multiple windows for various requirements, trajectory-based time intervals during which spacecraft are viewable, ground resources, forecasts, and schedules. Each window includes a time navigation pane, a selection pane, a graphical display pane, a list pane, and a statistics pane.

Wang, Yeou-Fang

Application of Hybrid Optimization-Expert System for Optimal Power Management on Board Space Power Station

The space power system has two sources of energy: photo-voltaic blankets and batteries. The optimal power management problem on-board has two broad operations: off-line power scheduling to determine the load allocation schedule of the next several hours based on the forecast of load and solar power availability. The nature of this study puts less emphasis on speed requirement for computation and more importance on the optimality of the solution. The second category problem, on-line power rescheduling, is needed in the event of occurrence of a contingency to optimally reschedule the loads to minimize the 'unused' or 'wasted' energy while keeping the priority on certain type of load and minimum disturbance of the original optimal schedule determined in the first-stage off-line study. The computational performance of the on-line 'rescheduler' is an important criterion and plays a critical role in the selection of the appropriate tool. The Howard University Center for Energy Systems and Control has developed a hybrid optimization-expert systems based power management program. The pre-scheduler has been developed using a non-linear multi-objective optimization technique called the Outer Approximation method and implemented using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS). The optimization model has the capability of dealing with multiple conflicting objectives viz. maximizing energy utilization, minimizing the variation of load over a day, etc. and incorporates several complex interaction between the loads in a space system. The rescheduling is performed using an expert system developed in PROLOG which utilizes a rule-base for reallocation of the loads in an emergency condition viz. shortage of power due to solar array failure, increase of base load, addition of new activity, repetition of old activity etc. Both the modules handle decision making on battery charging and discharging and allocation of loads over a time-horizon of a day divided into intervals of 10 minutes. The models have been extensively tested using a case study for the Space Station Freedom and the results for the case study will be presented. Several future enhancements of the pre-scheduler and the 'rescheduler' have been outlined which include graphic analyzer for the on-line module, incorporating probabilistic considerations, including spatial location of the loads and the connectivity using a direct current (DC) load flow model.

Momoh, James

The Processing of Airspace Concept Evaluations Using FASTE-CNS as a Pre- or Post-Simulation CNS Analysis Tool

As NASA speculates on and explores the future of aviation, the technological and physical aspects of our environment increasing become hurdles that must be overcome for success. Research into methods for overcoming some of these selected hurdles have been purposed by several NASA research partners as concepts. The task of establishing a common evaluation environment was placed on NASA's Virtual Airspace Simulation Technologies (VAST) project (sub-project of VAMS), and they responded with the development of the Airspace Concept Evaluation System (ACES). As one examines the ACES environment from a communication, navigation or surveillance (CNS) perspective, the simulation parameters are built with assumed perfection in the transactions associated with CNS. To truly evaluate these concepts in a realistic sense, the contributions/effects of CNS must be part of the ACES. NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) has supported the Virtual Airspace Modeling and Simulation (VAMS) project through the continued development of CNS models and analysis capabilities which supports the ACES environment. NASA GRC initiated the development a communications traffic loading analysis tool, called the Future Aeronautical Sub-network Traffic Emulator for Communications, Navigation and Surveillance (FASTE-CNS), as part of this support. This tool allows for forecasting of communications load with the understanding that, there is no single, common source for loading models used to evaluate the existing and planned communications channels; and that, consensus and accuracy in the traffic load models is a very important input to the decisions being made on the acceptability of communication techniques used to fulfill the aeronautical requirements. Leveraging off the existing capabilities of the FASTE-CNS tool, GRC has called for FASTE-CNS to have the functionality to pre- and post-process the simulation runs of ACES to report on instances when traffic density, frequency congestion or aircraft spacing/distance violations have occurred. The integration of these functions require that the CNS models used to characterize these avionic system be of higher fidelity and better consistency then is present in FASTE-CNS system. This presentation will explore the capabilities of FASTE-CNS with renewed emphasis on the enhancements being added to perform these processing functions; the fidelity and reliability of CNS models necessary to make the enhancements work; and the benchmarking of FASTE-CNS results to improve confidence for the results of the new processing capabilities.

Mainger, Steve

The JPL Resource Allocation Planning and Scheduling Office (RAPSO) process

The Jet Propulsion Laboratory's Resource Allocation Planning and Scheduling Office is chartered to divide the limited amount of tracking hours of the Deep Space Network amongst the various missions in as equitable allotment as can be achieved. To best deal with this division of assets and time, an interactive process has evolved that promotes discussion with agreement by consensus between all of the customers that use the Deep Space Network (DSN). Aided by a suite of tools, the task of division of asset time is then performed in three stages of granularity. Using this approach, DSN loads are either forecasted or scheduled throughout a moving 10-year window.

RAPSO Resource Allocation Planning and Scheduling