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Results for “levelized cost of energy (LCOE)”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY

Process-level cost analysis of hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace structural components

Hybrid manufacturing is a promising route for producing complex aerospace components, yet systematic cost benchmarking across multiple additive-subtractive pathways remains limited. This study presents a comprehensive process-based cost analysis of seven hybrid manufacturing routes, including laser powder bed fusion (L-PBF), powder- and wire-directed energy deposition (DED), wire arc additive manufacturing (WAAM), additive friction stir deposition (AFSD), metal binder jetting (MBJ), and agility forging, followed by scanning and finish machining. Parametric cost models incorporating direct material, labor, and energy costs were developed. L-PBF results are discussed in detail for a pickle fork component and directly compared with commercial pricing. Across all hybrid routes, labor emerged as the dominant cost driver, contributing more than 70% of total manufacturing cost in some cases. AFSD exhibited the lowest cost for aluminum components, with MBJ being its 316 L stainless steel counterpart, after accounting for geometric scaling. Benchmarking against industrial quotes suggests that hybrid manufacturing can achieve cost levels comparable to those of commercial services, although labor-intensive processes exhibit greater deviation. The analysis highlights automation of material handling, setup, and supervision as key opportunities for improving economic competitiveness. Overall, the proposed framework provides a quantitative basis for evaluating and optimizing hybrid manufacturing pathways for aerospace applications.

Baruah, Sweta [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000174256207)

Pressure Switch Is a Low Cost Battery Indicator

Conventional pressure switch, fabricated by printed-circuit manufacturing techniques, can indicate when charge on battery departs from preset level. Membrane on switch is exposed to internal pressure of battery, which varies according to stored charge. When pressure varies from preset level, switch can turn on a light-emitting diode or similar indicator to warn user that battery is low.

Abita, J. L.

Self-Leveling Inks for Printing Ultra-uniform Perovskite Solar Modules by Flexography

The report describes the development of scalable manufacturing methods for high-performance, stable perovskite solar modules using flexographic printing. The project developed self-leveling perovskite inks that exploit Marangoni flows to reduce coating defects and improve large-area film uniformity. Bayesian optimization was integrated with high-throughput photoluminescence mapping and photovoltaic measurements to efficiently optimize ink formulations and printing conditions. The resulting printed perovskite solar cells achieved champion power conversion efficiencies above 21.6%, with median efficiencies exceeding 20% across large device batches. At the module scale, printed devices achieved active-area efficiencies up to approximately 17.3% on 25 cm² substrates. The project also demonstrated improved performance and stability using additively patterned interconnections compared with laser-scribed controls. Overall, the work establishes a data-driven, roll-compatible pathway toward high-throughput, low-capital-cost manufacturing of uniform and stable perovskite photovoltaics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Research and Development on Advanced Electrochemical Energy Storage Devices Enabling a Spectrum of Electrified Vehicles

The USABC Advanced Battery development plan had the following three focus areas: 1. Existing technology validation, implementation, and cost reduction 2. Identification of the next viable technology with emphasis on the potential to meet USABC cost and energy density goals. 3. Support high-risk, high-reward battery technology R&D The primary aim of this project was focused on the barriers that most impede wider public adoption of electrification in vehicles-cost, energy density, low-temp performance, calendar life, and improvements in abuse tolerance. The specific objectives are as follows: Cost Reduction: drive to significantly reduce battery cost to be in-line with the $\$$100/kWh or less (by the end of calendar year 2020) DOE cost goals. Additionally, goals of $\$$75/KWh were set for 2023 aligned with fast charge and some offset of energy density. Energy Density Increase: focus on improving the cell-level specific energy and energy densities to >350 watt hours per kilogram (Wh/kg) and >750Wh/L. Low Temperature Performance Increase: strive toward developments that improve the discharge power and eliminate or dramatically reduce the life limiting lithium plating associated with regenerative braking at low temperatures, during the program. Calendar Life Increase: drive to achieve a 15-year calendar life. Abuse Tolerance Improvement: strive to develop improvements in Li-ion abuse tolerance and/or development of electrochemical energy storage technologies with inherently better response to abuse circumstances. Emerging Areas: initiate new programs that address emerging technologies that arise during the contract period.

25 ENERGY STORAGE

Smart Charging of Fleet and Personal Electric Vehicles through Joint Vehicle-to-Grid Optimization

As electric vehicle (EV) adoption accelerates, vehicle-to-grid (V2G) strategies offer advantages over unmanaged charging (V0G) by enhancing grid stability, reducing fleet operation costs, and supporting integration of variable generation resources. This research develops a day-ahead optimization framework linked with agent-based simulations to evaluate coordinated V2G participation by fleet and personal EVs under 5 energy-pricing settings in Austin, Texas. Three scenarios (V0G, fleet-only V2G, and joint-V2G) are examined, considering real-time price and grid profiles, health-damage costs, and operational constraints for both fleet and personal EVs. Results show how V2G scenarios shift fleet EV charging to mid-day while enabling strategic battery-discharge during evening peaks, mitigating grid stress and lowering EV energy costs. V2G delivers close to 80% energy-cost savings for a 2000-EV fleet in Austin on grid-stressed days, with 55% lower charging pollutant outputs. Joint-V2G amplifies system-level benefits by complementing fleet discharge, but smart-charging equipment costs can offset those benefits.

Electric vehicle

SimH 2 : an integrated techno-economic modeling framework for hydrogen pipeline infrastructure and network optimization

Large-scale hydrogen (H 2 ) pipeline transport design and network optimization have seldom been reported due to the lack of a cost model accounting for the relationship between transport cost and hydrogen mass flow rate. Here, this work introduced a system-level cost model for hydrogen pipeline transport at supercritical state and integrated it with an existing CO 2 pipeline network tool, SimCCS, for hydrogen-specific pipeline design and optimization. The Intermountain West (I-West) region of the U.S., historically dependent on fossil fuel-based economies, is chosen to demonstrate the capabilities of our H 2 pipeline cost model and transport network optimization platform called SimH 2 . Two scenarios are examined: one where the pipeline is not allowed to pass through disadvantaged communities and the other where it is permitted. The results highlight that incorporating disadvantaged-community constraints lead to longer pipeline routes and increased transport costs, reflecting the trade-offs involved in equitable infrastructure development. It is demonstrated that the newly developed SimH 2 tool not only enables the efficient design of H 2 transportation pipelines but also optimizes the network by accounting for local terrain and the presence of disadvantaged areas.

08 HYDROGEN

Next-Generation Energy Technologies for Connected and Automated On-Road Vehicles (NEXTCAR) - Predictive Data-Driven Vehicle Dynamics and Powertrain Control: from ECU to the Cloud (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

This project developed and demonstrated a predictive, data-driven vehicle control system designed to improve energy efficiency and driving performance. The team created intelligent self-driving car technology that optimizes fuel and electricity use by proactively planning vehicle actions. By combining Level 4 autonomous driving capabilities with vehicle-to-everything (V2X) connectivity, the system enables vehicles to adjust speed and change lanes in response to traffic signals, surrounding vehicles, and road conditions, reducing unnecessary stops and delays. In testing, the system improved vehicle fuel economy by more than 30% and reduced travel time by approximately 10%, compared to a conventional adaptive cruise control baseline. These results demonstrate the technical effectiveness of using predictive, V2X-enabled strategies, such as traffic light timing and surrounding traffic awareness, to inform real-time vehicle powertrain control and driving behavior. Additionally, a supporting cloud platform was developed to provide dispatch and route recommendations as well as to log vehicle data, demonstrating the economic feasibility of this approach at the fleet level. By optimizing dispatching and routing operations, this technology enables electric fleet operators to use their vehicles more efficiently and reduce reliance on diesel backups, lowering both operating costs and energy consumption. Overall, this project’s technology advances the future of clean, energy-efficient transportation, enabling vehicles and fleets to reduce energy waste, cut costs, and lower emissions through intelligent automation and connectivity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS

Security Constrained Economic Optimization of Photovoltaic and Other Distributed Assets

The rapid growth of distributed energy resources (DERs), especially photovoltaic (PV) systems, has introduced new complexities in maintaining grid reliability, stability, and cost-effective operation. This project addresses these challenges by developing and demonstrating a scalable GridOS Distributed Energy Resource Management System (DERMS) that enables secure, real-time optimization and control of DERs at the distribution feeder level.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Heliostat sizing methodology for concentrating solar thermal industrial process heat projects

This study presents a method to obtain a heliostat size that minimizes the levelized cost of heat (LCOH) of a heliostat-based concentrating solar thermal system for applications of solar heating for industrial processes at operating temperatures from 565 to 1550°C. The method extends prior work by embedding a routine for system design that obtains near-optimal subsystem sizes, increasing the fidelity of drive cost functions, and adding an optical performance model to supplement the previously developed cost models, which we update to reflect current pricing trends. An illustrative business case is developed for Daggett, California, targeting specified annual thermal energy outputs of 50 to 400 GWh th . Optical performance is modeled using verified estimates from the literature. A surrogate heliostat cost model, derived from commercial heliostat designs and scaled for production volume, installation, and operations and maintenance costs, is used to develop cost functions. Results show that heliostat size strongly affects the LCOH, producing a characteristic U-shaped trend with a robust near-optimal window of 7-20 m 2 ; the heliostat size producing the lowest project cost in our study grows slightly as the project size increases, and is reduced as the operating temperature increases. The findings in this study are consistent with the general trend of smaller heliostats being deployed at existing projects for high-temperature industrial process heat and reflect the significant reduction in power electronics and other per-heliostat costs. The methodology we propose is general and can be tailored to revised cost curves as the technology continues to evolve.

14 SOLAR ENERGY

Spacecraft Disposal Rosetta Stone: Parametric Tool for Orbital Lifetime, Disposal, and Cost Assessment

This Technical Memorandum documents a simplified, parametric method for evaluating spacecraft orbital lifetime, disposal compliance, and disposal-related cost impacts during early mission formulation and preliminary design. The method captures the dominant drivers of orbital decay—effective ballistic coefficient, operating altitude, and solar-cycle variability—using conservative bounding assumptions. Solar maximum conditions are used to bound achievable mission lifetime, while solar minimum conditions are used to bound disposal timelines and compliance with orbital debris requirements. A single tabulated dataset provides orbital lifetime under both solar-cycle extremes together with representative disposal ΔV required to ensure compliant disposal, enabling rapid assessment of disposal feasibility, cost sensitivity, and system-level impacts prior to committing to higher-fidelity analyses.

Orbital debris mitigation

Techno-Economic Evaluation of Electrified Vehicle Options in Drayage Fleets

The electrification of drayage fleets offers potential economic and operational benefits, but the financial viability of electrified vehicles remains sensitive to battery cost, energy price, and fleet usage patterns. While total cost of ownership (TCO) is a useful benchmark, fleet operators and investors are equally concerned with investment performance metrics such as payback period (PB) and Internal Rate of Return (IRR), which better reflect financial risks and investment return timelines. This study develops a unified techno-economic framework that jointly evaluates TCO, PB, and IRR to determine when electrified trucks become cost-effective alternatives to diesel trucks. Building on a previously developed cost modeling tool and using real-world telematics data from a Class 8 drayage fleet at the Port of Savannah, the analysis incorporates projected battery cost trajectories, electricity and diesel price trends, vehicle efficiency improvements, and multiple battery capacities. Parameter ranges reflect widely cited projections and observed drayage-duty-cycle variability. A surrogate-modeling method approximates economic performance across thousands of battery cost–electricity price combinations, enabling high-resolution identification of conditions that achieve TCO parity, acceptable PB thresholds, and target IRR levels. Additionally, the study estimates the evolving share of the fleet that can feasibly electrify over time under multiple economic metrics. This integrated framework offers a novel, data-driven approach to inform risk-aware decision-making for fleet electrification and supports investment planning under evolving cost and operational conditions.

Sun, Ruixiao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000341768676)

Thermal Reservoir Networks for Modularly Expandable Thermal Microgrids

The Department of Defense (DoD) faces the substantial challenge of cost-effectively retrofitting one to two installations per month, each comprising approximately 1,000 buildings, to improve resilience, reduce energy consumption, and enhance energy supply security. Achieving these objectives requires optimal system selection and effective risk mitigation during system integration. To address this need, we introduce Platform-Based Design (PBD), a structured, hierarchical methodology adapted from other industrial sectors to the domain of energy system retrofits. We demonstrate the effectiveness of PBD through a techno-economic feasibility study comparing geothermal-coupled thermal energy networks (TENs) with conventional energy systems for heating, cooling, and powering 17 buildings at Joint Base Andrews (JBA) in Maryland. Our analysis illustrates that the PBD approach enables rigorous, data-driven, sequential decision making, resulting in a family of Pareto-optimal systems, among which the TEN emerged as the most promising solution. The selected TEN design integrates geothermal borefields, heat recovery heat pumps, photovoltaic (PV) arrays, and battery storage. Compared to the baseline system – gas heating combined with air-source chillers – the proposed TEN reduces annual imported energy by 74% and peak electricity demand by 45%, achieves a levelized cost of energy of $\$0.210$/kWh, and substantially enhances resilience. Life-cycle costs increase by approximately 6%, and initial investment costs are about 2.5 times higher than the baseline. However, if central plant infrastructure, district loops, and utility-scale PV and battery systems are privately funded and operated, the initial investment would fall below the baseline system cost. Critical to achieving these significant performance improvements were detailed nonlinear dynamic simulations coupling geothermal heat transfer, energy system operation, and realistic feedback control logic. These simulations identified essential design modifications and control strategy refinements that substantially reduced energy use, peak demand, and compressor shortcycling, thereby improving durability and reliability—issues that would have been significantly more expensive to resolve during operation. Additionally, the verification step highlighted sensitivities to key design parameters that could reduce initial investment by approximately $\$2$ million and reduce annual life-cycle costs more than $\$300,000$. We recommend adopting the PBD methodology for future feasibility studies and TEN pilot projects to gain valuable operational experience. Furthermore, we recommend that DoD invest in transferring and scaling the PBD methodology to other installations. This entails developing standardized computational frameworks and component libraries as well as training industry in conducting PBD. Such investments would enable rapid, robust, reliable, and cost-effective retrofits, supporting DoD’s ambitious energy system modernization goals.

Wetter, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Labora

A quality-agnostic combinatoric cost estimation model for large-format directed energy deposition metal additive manufacturing

Directed energy deposition (DED) additive manufacturing (AM) processes are amenable to synergistic combination into multi-process AM systems due to similar requirements for automation and energy sources. This work analyzes the economic performance of such DED AM systems from a quality-agnostic combinatoric standpoint with a model that calculates lowest-cost system combinations based on part geometry and process performance metrics. Common DED AM systems research focuses on a single process and does not consider the process, system, and application in the context of all possible system combinations (e.g., the combined set of process selection(s), motion system(s), and process hardware), leading to limited applicability of the resulting DED AM systems to cost-sensitive components such as those found in energy generation applications. The model developed herein incorporates the capital, material, and energy costs associated with DED AM system combinations into a predictive tool for estimating part and system cost, the output of which is intended to guide deployment of finite research and development resources towards DED AM system combinations with the lowest costs and greatest likelihood of economic impact. The DED AM systems identified by this framework may enable domestic production of the large conventionally cast and forged components necessary for energy generation.

Shanafield, Alexandra [ORNL]