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Extreme Lake-Effect Snow from a GPM Microwave Imager Perspective: Observational Analysis and Precipitation Retrieval Evaluation

This study focuses on the ability of the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) passive microwave sensors to detect and provide quantitative precipitation estimates (QPE) for extreme lake-effect snowfall events over the United States lower Great Lakes region. GPM Microwave Imager (GMI) high frequency channels can clearly detect intense shallow convective snowfall events. However, GMI Goddard PROfiling (GPROF) QPE retrievals produce inconsistent results when compared against the Multi-Radar/Multi-Sensor (MRMS) ground-based radar reference dataset. While GPROF retrievals adequately capture intense snowfall rates and spatial patterns of one event, GPROF systematically underestimates intense snowfall rates in another event. Furthermore, GPROF produces abundant light snowfall rates that do not conform with MRMS observations. Ad-hoc precipitation rate thresholds are suggested to partially mitigate GPROF’s overproduction of light snowfall rates. The sensitivity and retrieval efficiency of GPROF to key parameters (2-meter temperature, total precipitable water, and background surface type) used to constrain the GPROF a-priori retrieval database are investigated. Results demonstrate that typical lake-effect snow environmental and surface conditions, especially coastal surfaces, are underpopulated in the database and adversely affect GPROF retrievals. For the two presented case studies, using snow cover a-priori database in the locations of originally deemed as coastline improves retrieval. This study suggests that it is particularly important to have more accurate GPROF surface classifications and better representativeness of the a-priori databases to improve intense lake-effect snow detection and retrieval performance.

Lisa Milani↗

Contribution of Lake-Effect Snow to the Catskill Mountains Snowpack

Meltwater from snow that falls in the Catskill Mountains in southern New York contributes to reservoirs that supply drinking water to approximately nine million people in New York City. Using the NOAA National Ice Centers Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System (IMS) 4km snow maps, we have identified at least 32 lake-effect (LE) storms emanating from Lake Erie andor Lake Ontario that deposited snow in the CatskillDelaware Watershed in the Catskill Mountains of southern New York State between 2004 and 2017. This represents a large underestimate of the contribution of LE snow to the Catskills snowpack because many of the LE snowstorms are not visible in the IMS snow maps when they travel over snow-covered terrain. Most of the LE snowstorms that we identified originate from Lake Ontario but quite a few originate from both Erie and Ontario, and a few from Lake Erie alone. Using satellite, meteorological and reanalysis data we identify conditions that contributed to LE snowfall in the Catskills. Clear skies following some of the storms permitted measurement of the extent of snow cover in the watershed using multiple satellite sensors. IMS maps tend to overestimate the extent of snow compared to MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Landsat-derived snow-cover extent maps. Using this combination of satellite and meteorological data, we can begin to quantify the important contribution of LE snow to the Catskills Mountain snowpack. Changes that are predicted in LE snowfall from the Great Lakes could impact the distribution of rain vs snow in the Catskills which may affect future reservoir operations in the NYC Water Supply System.

Lake Ontario↗

Forecasting Lake-Effect Snow in the Great Lakes Using NASA Satllite Data

This slide presentation reviews the forecast of the lake effect snow in the Great Lakes region using models and infrared estimates of Great Lake Surface Temperatures (GLSTs) from the MModerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument on Terra and Aqua satellites, and other satellite data. This study analyzes Lake Erie and Lake Ontario which produce storm total snowfall ranged from 8-18 inches off of Lake Ontario and 10-12 inches off of Lake Erie for the areas downwind.

Cipullo, Michelle↗

ERTS-1 views the Great Lakes

The meteorological content of ERTS images, particularly mesoscale effects of the Great Lakes and air pollution dispersion is summarized. Summertime lake breeze frontal clouds and various winter lake-effect convection patterns and snow squalls are revealed in great detail. A clear-cut spiral vortex over southern Lake Michigan is related to a record early snow storm in the Chicago area. Marked cloud changes induced by orographic and frictional effects on Lake Michigan's lee shore snow squalls are seen. The most important finding, however, is a clear-cut example of alterations in cumulus convection by anthropogenic condensation and/or ice nuclei from northern Indiana steel mills during a snow squall situation. Jet aircraft condensation trails are also found with surprising frequency.

Lyons, W. A.↗

Numerical Analysis Using WRF-SBM for the Cloud Microphysical Structures in the C3VP Field Campaign: Impacts of Supercooled Droplets and Resultant Riming on Snow Microphysics

Two distinct snowfall events are observed over the region near the Great Lakes during 19-23 January 2007 under the intensive measurement campaign of the Canadian CloudSat/CALIPSO validation project (C3VP). These events are numerically investigated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a spectral bin microphysics (WRF-SBM) scheme that allows a smooth calculation of riming process by predicting the rimed mass fraction on snow aggregates. The fundamental structures of the observed two snowfall systems are distinctly characterized by a localized intense lake-effect snowstorm in one case and a widely distributed moderate snowfall by the synoptic-scale system in another case. Furthermore, the observed microphysical structures are distinguished by differences in bulk density of solid-phase particles, which are probably linked to the presence or absence of supercooled droplets. The WRF-SBM coupled with Goddard Satellite Data Simulator Unit (G-SDSU) has successfully simulated these distinctive structures in the three-dimensional weather prediction run with a horizontal resolution of 1 km. In particular, riming on snow aggregates by supercooled droplets is considered to be of importance in reproducing the specialized microphysical structures in the case studies. Additional sensitivity tests for the lake-effect snowstorm case are conducted utilizing different planetary boundary layer (PBL) models or the same SBM but without the riming process. The PBL process has a large impact on determining the cloud microphysical structure of the lake-effect snowstorm as well as the surface precipitation pattern, whereas the riming process has little influence on the surface precipitation because of the small height of the system.

lake-effect↗

Retrieval of Snow Water Equivalent by the Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP) over Northern Great Lakes

Performance of the Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP) for estimating the snow water equivalent (SWE) is evaluated through a comparative study with the collocated National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service snow stake field measurements. The PIP together with a vertically pointing radar, a weighing bucket gauge, and a laser-optical disdrometer was deployed at the NWS Marquette, Michigan office building for a long-term field study supported by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s Global Precipitation Measurement mission Ground Validation program. The site was also equipped with a weather station. During the 2017-18 winter, PIP functioned nearly uninterrupted at frigid temperatures accumulating 2345.8 mm of geometric snow depth over a total of 499 hours. This long record consists of 30 events, and the PIP-retrieved and snow stake field measured SWE differed less than 15% in every event. For the windy events, the wind corrected stake field record agreed better with the PIP-retrieved SWE. Two of the major events with the longest duration and the highest accumulation are examined in detail. The particle mass with a given diameter was much lower during a shallow, colder, uniform lake-effect event than in the deep, less cold, and variable synoptic event. This study demonstrated that PIP is a robust instrument for operational use, and is reliable for deriving the bulk properties of falling snow.

Ali Tokay↗

Precipitating Snow Retrievals from Combined Airborne Cloud Radar and Millimeter-Wave Radiometer Observations

An algorithm for retrieving snow over oceans from combined cloud radar and millimeter-wave radiometer observations is developed. The algorithm involves the use of physical models to simulate cloud radar and millimeter-wave radiometer observations from basic atmospheric variables such as hydrometeor content, temperature, and relative humidity profiles and is based on an optimal estimation technique to retrieve these variables from actual observations. A high-resolution simulation of a lake-effect snowstorm by a cloud-resolving model is used to test the algorithm. That is, synthetic observations are generated from the output of the cloud numerical model, and the retrieval algorithm is applied to the synthetic data. The algorithm performance is assessed by comparing the retrievals with the reference variables used in synthesizing the observations. The synthetic observation experiment indicates good performance of the retrieval algorithm. The algorithm is also applied to real observations from the Wakasa Bay field experiment that took place over the Sea of Japan in January and February 2003. The application of the retrieval algorithm to data from the field experiment yields snow estimates that are consistent with both the cloud radar and radiometer observations.

Grecu, Mircea↗

Snowfall in the Northern Great Lakes: Lessons Learned from a Multisensor Observatory

A multisensor snowfall observational suite has been deployed at the Marquette, Michigan, National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office (KMQT) since 2014. Micro Rain Radar (MRR; profiling radar), Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP; snow particle imager), and ancillary ground-based meteorological observations illustrate the unique capabilities of these combined instruments to document radar and concomitant microphysical properties associated with northern Great Lakes snowfall regimes. Lake-effect, lake-orographic, and transition event case studies are presented that illustrate the variety of snowfall events that occur at KMQT. Case studies and multiyear analyses reveal the ubiquity of snowfall produced by shallow events. These shallow snowfall features and their distinctive microphysical fingerprints are often difficult to discern with conventional remote sensing instruments, thus highlighting the scientific and potential operational value of MRR and PIP observations. The importance of near-surface lake-orographic snowfall enhancement processes in extreme snowfall events and regime-dependent snow particle microphysical variability controlled by regime and environmental factors are also highlighted.

Lake effects↗