Statistical Significance of Mission Parameters on the Deflection Efficiency of Kinetic Impacts: Applications for the Next-generation Kinetic Impactor
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Mallory E. DeCoster↗
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Design of Spacecraft Missions to Test Kinetic Impact for Asteroid Deflection
Earth has previously been struck with devastating force by near-Earth asteroids (NEAs) and will be struck again. Telescopic search programs aim to provide advance warning of such an impact, but no techniques or systems have yet been tested for deflecting an incoming NEA. To begin addressing this problem, we have analyzed the more than 8000 currently known NEAs to identify those that offer opportunities for safe and meaningful near-term tests of the proposed kinetic impact asteroid deflection technique. In this paper we present our methodology and results, including complete mission designs for the best kinetic impactor test mission opportunities.
Barbee, Brent W.↗
Design of Spacecraft Missions to Test Kinetic Impact for Asteroid Deflection
There are currently over 8,000 known near-Earth asteroids (NEAs), and more are being discovered on a continual basis. More than 1,200 of these are classified as Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) because their Minimum Orbit Intersection Distance (MOID) with Earth's orbit is <= 0.05 AU and their estimated diameters are >= 150 m. To date, 178 Earth impact structures have been discovered, indicating that our planet has previously been struck with devastating force by NEAs and will be struck again. Such collisions are aperiodic events and can occur at any time. A variety of techniques have been proposed to defend our planet from NEA impacts by deflecting the incoming asteroid. However, none of these techniques have been tested. Unless rigorous testing is conducted to produce reliable asteroid deflection systems, we will be forced to deploy completely untested -- and therefore unreliable -- deflection missions when a sizable asteroid on a collision course with Earth is discovered. Such missions will have a high probability of failure. We propose to address this problem with a campaign of deflection technology test missions deployed to harmless NEAs. The objective of these missions is to safely evaluate and refine the mission concepts and asteroid deflection system designs. Our current research focuses on the kinetic impactor, one of the simplest proposed asteroid deflection techniques in which a spacecraft is sent to collide with an asteroid at high relative velocity. By deploying test missions in the near future, we can characterize the performance of this deflection technique and resolve any problems inherent to its execution before needing to rely upon it during a true emergency. In this paper we present the methodology and results of our survey, including lists of NEAs for which safe and effective kinetic impactor test missions may be conducted within the next decade. Full mission designs are also presented for the NEAs which offer the best mission opportunities.
Hernandez, Sonia↗
Momentum Enhancement during Kinetic Impacts in the Low-intermediate-strength Regime: Benchmarking and Validation of Impact Shock Physics Codes
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Robert Luther↗
Predicting Asteroid Material Properties from a DART-like Kinetic Impact
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Kathryn M. Kumamoto↗
The nature of cometary materials
Because cometary surfaces are likely to be far colder and of a different composition than planetary surfaces, there are some new considerations that must be examined in regards to placing instrumented packages or sample return devices on their surfaces. The qualitative analysis of the problem of attaching hardware to a comet and not being ejected back into space can be divided into two parts. The first problem is to pierce the mantle and obtain access to the icy core. Drilling through the mantle requires that the drilling forces be reacted. Reacting such forces probably requires attachment to the icy core below. Therefore, some kinetic impact piercing device is likely to be required as the first act of attachment. The second problem for a piercing device to overcome is the force produced by the impact kinetic energy that tries to eject the piercing device back into space. The mantle and icy core can absorb some of the impact kinetic energy in the form of fracture formation and friction energy. The energy that is not absorbed in these two ways is stored by the core as elastic deformation of the mantle and icy core. It is concluded that because the cometary materials are almost certainly brittle and the icy core is likely to be self lubricating, the elastic rebound and gas pressure expulsion forces must be counteracted by forces greater than those that may be provided by a piercing device or its capture devices (barbs).
Stephens, James↗
The Nature of Comet Materials and Attachment to Them
Because cometary surfaces are likely to be far colder and of a different composition and surface topography than other planetary surfaces with which we have experience, there are some new considerations that must be examined in regards to placing and attaching instrumented packages or sample return devices in or on their surfaces. The qualitative analysis of the problem of embedding hardware in a comet icy core is limited to only one of several means for the purposes of this discussion. This means can be characterized as a kinetic impact piercing device. Such kinetic impact piercing device may be used to attach the feet of an instrumented package on the surface or it may be the means for implanting the package in the icy core below the mantle. The functional requirement is to implant a device in the icy core and by mechanical means, prevent the device from being ejected back into space.
Stephens, James↗
Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) Mission
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) mission was humanity’s first attempt to move a celestial body, demonstrating the capability to perform a kinetic impact on a planetary defense–relevant sized asteroid. DART was part of the international collaboration known as the Asteroid Impact & Deflection Assessment (AIDA), involving NASA, the European Space Agency (ESA), the Agenzia Spaziale Italiana (ASI), and scientists around the world. DART was a key step to demonstrating preparedness to respond to planetary defense scenarios, and it provides a crucial data point for likely outcomes. Near-Earth objects (NEOs) greater than 140 m in size are of particular interest to planetary defense because they have the potential to cause significant damage if they were to impact Earth, and also because they are difficult to detect, with less than 50% of the predicted population discovered as of 2022 (National Academies Press, 2022). With an appropriately sized spacecraft and enough warning (typically many years to decades), a kinetic impact can slightly alter the orbit of an asteroid in a way that, over time, prevents the asteroid from colliding with Earth in the future. DART’s target was Dimorphos, the smaller (~150-m-diameter) member of the binary asteroid system (65803) Didymos, which is a near-Earth, potentially hazardous, and well-characterized asteroid system. By simply observing changes to the system after impact and comparing them with a pre-impact reference, it was possible to use ground-based telescopes to observe the deflection in the orbit of Dimorphos after impact. Developed and operated by the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory (APL), the mission entered formulation in 2015 after multiple years of concept development. The project was administered according to NPR 7120.5, with technical oversight and funding through the Planetary Missions Program Office (PMPO) at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and overall support as a directed mission from NASA’s Planetary Defense Coordination Office (PDCO). The DART spacecraft hosted a singular payload, the Didymos Reconnaissance and Asteroid Camera for Optical navigation (DRACO), and a deployable CubeSat contributed by ASI named the Light Italian CubeSat for Imaging of Asteroids (LICIACube). On 11 September 2022, DART deployed LICIACube, which subsequently followed the DART spacecraft at a safe distance and observed the immediate aftermath of the DART impact. DART was designed to autonomously detect, navigate to, and impact Dimorphos. This autonomous design was chosen to maximize the probability of impact, since commanding from the ground could result in course corrections arriving too late. On the day of impact, 26 September 2022, the spacecraft’s autonomous systems successfully detected and locked on to Dimorphos, impacting its surface within 2 m of the center of the illuminated figure (Jensenius et al., 2023). No human intervention was required for a successful impact, demonstrating that humanity possesses the technology to perform a kinetic impact. Within 2 weeks of impact, it was clear that the orbit of Dimorphos had been significantly altered. On 11 October 2022, NASA Administrator Bill Nelson announced that the new orbital period of Dimorphos was shortened by approximately 32 ± 2 min, from 11 h and 55 min before impact to 11 h and 23 min after impact. With additional observations over the following months, the accuracy of this measurement improved to a –33.24 min ± 1.4 s orbital period change (Naidu et al., 2023; Scheirich et al., 2023), and Beta (β), the momentum transfer enhancement parameter, was reported to be 3.6 (Cheng et al., 2023). Subsequent studies examined the details of DART’s impact site, modeled the impact event, investigated the ejecta produced, and analyzed the dynamics of the Didymos system. These combined results clearly demonstrate that the project met all Level 1 mission requirements.
asteroid↗
After DART: Using the first full-scale test of a kinetic impactor to inform a future planetary defense mission
NASA’s Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is the first full-scale test of an asteroid deflection technology. Results from the hypervelocity kinetic impact and Earth-based observations, coupled with LICIACube and the later Hera mission, will result in measurement of the momentum transfer efficiency accurate to ~10% and characterization of the Didymos binary system. But DART is a single experiment; how could these results be used in a future planetary defense necessity involving a different asteroid? We examine what aspects of Dimorphos’s response to kinetic impact will be constrained by DART results; how these constraints will help refine knowledge of the physical properties of asteroidal materials and predictive power of impact simulations; what information about a potential Earth impactor could be acquired before a deflection effort; and how design of a deflection mission should be informed by this understanding. We generalize the momentum enhancement factor β, showing that a particular direction-specific β will be directly determined by the DART results, and that a related direction-specific β is a figure of merit for a kinetic impact mission. The DART β determination constrains the ejecta momentum vector, which, with hydrodynamic simulations, constrains the physical properties of Dimorphos’s near-surface. In a hypothetical planetary defense exigency, extrapolating these constraints to a newly discovered asteroid will require Earth-based observations and benefit from in-situ reconnaissance. We show representative predictions for momentum transfer based on different levels of reconnaissance and discuss strategic targeting to optimize the deflection and reduce the risk of a counterproductive deflection in the wrong direction.
Asteroids↗
The Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment Mission and its Potential Contributions to Human Exploration of Asteroids
The joint ESA and NASA Asteroid Impact and Deflection Assessment (AIDA) mission will directly address aspects of NASA's Asteroid Initiative and will contribute to future human exploration. The NASA Asteroid Initiative is comprised of two major components: the Grand Challenge and the Asteroid Mission. The first component, the Grand Challenge, focuses on protecting Earth's population from asteroid impacts by detecting potentially hazardous objects with enough warning time to either prevent them from impacting the planet, or to implement civil defense procedures. The Asteroid Mission, involves sending astronauts to study and sample a near-Earth asteroid (NEA) prior to conducting exploration missions of the Martian system, which includes Phobos and Deimos. AIDA's primary objective is to demonstrate a kinetic impact deflection and characterize the binary NEA Didymos. The science and technical data obtained from AIDA will aid in the planning of future human exploration missions to NEAs and other small bodies. The dual robotic missions of AIDA, ESA's Asteroid Impact Monitor (AIM) and NASA's Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART), will provide a great deal of technical and engineering data on spacecraft operations for future human space exploration while conducting in-depth scientific examinations of the binary target Didymos both prior to and after the kinetic impact demonstration. The knowledge gained from this mission will help identify asteroidal physical properties in order to maximize operational efficiency and reduce mission risk for future small body missions. The AIDA data will help fill crucial strategic knowledge gaps concerning asteroid physical characteristics that are relevant for human exploration considerations at similar small body destinations.
Abell, Paul A.↗
The impact of kinetic and global effects on ideal ballooning 2nd stable pedestals of conventional and low aspect-ratio tokamaks
The EPED model (Snyder et al 2011 Nucl. Fusion 51 103016) has had success in describing the pedestal structure of Type-I ELM and QH-mode plasmas in tokamaks, by combining kinetic ballooning mode (KBM) and peeling–ballooning (PB) constraints. Within EPED, the KBM constraint is often approximated by a technique using calculated ideal ballooning mode (IBM) thresholds, fit to a functional form designed to capture non-local effects. It has been noted that quantitative differences between local ideal MHD and gyro-kinetic (GK) ballooning stability can be larger at low aspect ratio. KBM critical pedestals are consistent with observations in initial studies on conventional and spherical tokamaks. In this work, the application of a reduced model for the calculation of the kinetic ballooning stability boundary is presented based on a novel and newly developed gyro-fluid system (GFS) code (Staebler et al 2023 Phys. Plasmas 30 102501). GFS is observed to capture KBMs in DIII-D as well as the NSTX pedestals, opening a route to integrating this model into EPED. Finally, high but finite $n$ global ballooning modes are observed to limit the access to the local 2nd stability and thus provide a transport mechanism that constrains the pedestal evolution with $β_{p,\textrm{ped}}$. The high $n$ global ballooning stability is approximated by its ideal MHD analog using ELITE. It is shown that nearly-local high $n$ modes with $k_yρ_s$ ~ $0.25 - 0.5$ can provide a proxy for the critical $β_{p,\textrm{ped}}$ when a 2nd stable access exists on DIII-D plasmas. The use of GFS and ELITE scaling in EPED provides improved agreement to EPED1 in an initial comparison with DIII-D pedestal data.
Anastopoulos Tzanis, Michail Savvas [Oak Ridge Nat↗
Cratering experiments in sands and a trial for general scaling law
The results of the vertical impacts of aluminum projectiles into quartz sand are reported. The impacts are at velocities of 35 to 830 m/sec with a single-stage powder gun. The morphology of craters formed in loose sands is generally conical, whereas that of craters formed in self-compacted sands varies with increasing impact velocity from a flat-floor type to a double-ring type. The present data, together with previous experimental data and the 'late-stage equivalence' of Dienes and Walsh, are seen as indicating that the crater diameter is expressed by a function of the 'late-stage effective energy' but not of the impact kinetic energy. The diameter of a crater formed in a noncohesive sand is found to be proportional to one-fourth the power of the late-state effective energy. For general impact cratering in a target with a finite strength, a relation is given between the velocity and the diameter, suggesting that there are four regimes in the crater diameter versus kinetic energy relation.
Mizutani, H.↗
The Impact and Recovery of Asteroid 2018 LA
The June 2, 2018 impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroid's position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireball's main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. Twenty-three meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as an HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of ~156 cm diameter with high bulk density ~2.85 g cm^(−3), a relatively low albedo pV ~ 0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of ~0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth-impacting orbit via the ν6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit toward Earth occurred 22.8 ± 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U-Pb age of 4563 ± 11 Ma and a consistent 207Pb/206Pb age of 4563 ± 6 Ma. A much younger Pb-Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 ± 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vesta's Veneneia impact basin.
Peter Jenniskens↗
The Impact and Recovery of Asteroid 2018 LA
The June 2, 2018 impact of asteroid 2018 LA over Botswana is only the second asteroid detected in space prior to impacting over land. Here, we report on the successful recovery of meteorites. Additional astrometric data refine the approach orbit and define the spin period and shape of the asteroid. Video observations of the fireball constrain the asteroid’s position in its orbit and were used to triangulate the location of the fireball’s main flare over the Central Kalahari Game Reserve. Twenty-three meteorites were recovered. A consortium study of eight of these classifies Motopi Pan as an HED polymict breccia derived from howardite, cumulate and basaltic eucrite, and diogenite lithologies. Before impact, 2018 LA was a solid rock of ~156 cm diameter with high bulk density ~2.85 g cm(exp -3), a relatively low albedo p(sub v) ~0.25, no significant opposition effect on the asteroid brightness, and an impact kinetic energy of ~0.2 kt. The orbit of 2018 LA is consistent with an origin at Vesta (or its Vestoids) and delivery into an Earth-impacting orbit via the m6 resonance. The impact that ejected 2018 LA in an orbit toward Earth occurred 22.8 ± 3.8 Ma ago. Zircons record a concordant U-Pb age of 4563 ± 11 Ma and a consistent 207Pb/206Pb age of 4563 ± 6 Ma. A much younger Pb-Pb phosphate resetting age of 4234 ± 41 Ma was found. From this impact chronology, we discuss what is the possible source crater of Motopi Pan and the age of Vesta’s Veneneia impact basin.
Peter Jenniskens↗
Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon 17 March 2013
NASA's routine monitoring of lunar impact flashes has recorded nearly 300 impacts since 2006. On 17 March 2013 the brightest event to date was observed in two 0.35m telescopes at the Marshall Space Flight Center. With a peak red magnitude brighter than 4.3 and an impact flash visible for over 1 second, the impact kinetic energy was equivalent to nearly 5 tons of TNT. A possible association with a meteor shower observed in the Earth's atmosphere will be described. Corresponding crater dimensions and observability of the impact crater by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be discussed.
Suggs, Robert M.↗
Large Meteoroid Impact on the Moon 17 March 2013
NASA's routine monitoring of lunar impact flashes has recorded nearly 300 impacts since 2006. On 17 March 2013 the brightest event to date was observed in two 0.35m telescopes at the Marshall Space Flight Center. With a peak red magnitude brighter than 4.3 and an impact flash visible for over 1 second, the impact kinetic energy was equivalent to nearly 5 tons of TNT. A possible association with a meteor shower observed in the Earth's atmosphere will be described. Corresponding crater dimensions and observability of the impact crater by Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter will also be discussed.
Suggs, Robert M.↗
On the orbital dependence of the asteroidal collision process
Collision of asteroids with the main-belt asteroid population is considered with the effect of the impact kinetic energy taken into account. It is found that objects in eccentric orbits have a larger probability of destructive collision as compared to objects in orbits with mean values of eccentricity (equal to 0.15) and inclination (equal to 10 deg); also orbits with small semimajor axes (about 2.3 AU) are found to have peak values of the probability of destructive collision.
Ip, W.-H.↗
Ionized cluster beam deposition
Ionized Cluster Beam (ICB) deposition, a new technique originated by Takagi of Kyoto University in Japan, offers a number of unique capabilities for thin film metallization as well as for deposition of active semiconductor materials. ICB allows average energy per deposited atom to be controlled and involves impact kinetics which result in high diffusion energies of atoms on the growth surface. To a greater degree than in other techniques, ICB involves quantitative process parameters which can be utilized to strongly control the characteristics of films being deposited. In the ICB deposition process, material to be deposited is vaporized into a vacuum chamber from a confinement crucible at high temperature. Crucible nozzle configuration and operating temperature are such that emerging vapor undergoes supercondensation following adiabatic expansion through the nozzle.
Kirkpatrick, A. R.↗