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Bottom-up and Top-Down Uncertainty Quantification for Measurements

Several recent papers address improved uncertainty quantification (UQ) for measurements used in nuclear safeguards. This paper reviews progress and presents new results for bottom-up (first principles) and top-down (empirical) UQ for safeguards, where the main quantitative measure of uncertainty is the total measurement error standard deviation (SD), which includes both random and systematic error components. The five main UQ topics addressed here include: (1) impact of making data-driven choices in SD estimation; (2) use of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for both bottom-up and top-down UQ; (3) computational calibration; (4) revisions to the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM), and (5) critique of a recently-suggested “Unified Theory of Measurement Errors and Uncertainties.”

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

ZPPR-15 Criticality Measurements

A reference critical configuration was established for each phase of the ZPPR-15 experimental program. The reference critical configuration for each phase corresponds to a configuration in which the measured excess reactivity was adjusted to a standard set of reporting conditions with an average reactor temperature of 293 K, a zero interface gap and all operational control rods parked 30 inches from the axial centerline of the core. The ZPPR staff published the measured excess reactivity and the statistical uncertainty in the measurement. In reality, the published uncertainty for each reference critical configuration is only a small component of the total uncertainty for that configuration. Additional uncertainties related measurement technique, configuration geometry and material compositions exist. The geometry and material composition uncertainties are the dominant uncertainties for ZPPR-15. A full uncertainty analysis was performed for each ZPPR-15 reference critical configuration. The significant uncertainties related to measurement technique, configuration geometry and material compositions were quantified, and a total uncertainty was derived for each reference critical configuration. The ZPPR-15 experimental records were used to create detailed as-built Monte Carlo models for the reference critical configurations established in ZPPR-15A loading 15, ZPPR-15B loading 88, ZPPR-15C loading 166 and ZPPR-15D loading 185. The as-built models neglect the small, non-uniform gap between matrix halves at full closure, any structures outside the matrix tubes and minor components, e.g., impurities, in some materials. The biases associated with the neglected items were quantified. The experimental value of keff and its associated uncertainty for each reference critical configuration were adjusted to account for biases introduced by items that are neglected in the as-built model for that configuration.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Active Learning with Irrelevant Examples

An improved active learning method has been devised for training data classifiers. One example of a data classifier is the algorithm used by the United States Postal Service since the 1960s to recognize scans of handwritten digits for processing zip codes. Active learning algorithms enable rapid training with minimal investment of time on the part of human experts to provide training examples consisting of correctly classified (labeled) input data. They function by identifying which examples would be most profitable for a human expert to label. The goal is to maximize classifier accuracy while minimizing the number of examples the expert must label. Although there are several well-established methods for active learning, they may not operate well when irrelevant examples are present in the data set. That is, they may select an item for labeling that the expert simply cannot assign to any of the valid classes. In the context of classifying handwritten digits, the irrelevant items may include stray marks, smudges, and mis-scans. Querying the expert about these items results in wasted time or erroneous labels, if the expert is forced to assign the item to one of the valid classes. In contrast, the new algorithm provides a specific mechanism for avoiding querying the irrelevant items. This algorithm has two components: an active learner (which could be a conventional active learning algorithm) and a relevance classifier. The combination of these components yields a method, denoted Relevance Bias, that enables the active learner to avoid querying irrelevant data so as to increase its learning rate and efficiency when irrelevant items are present. The algorithm collects irrelevant data in a set of rejected examples, then trains the relevance classifier to distinguish between labeled (relevant) training examples and the rejected ones. The active learner combines its ranking of the items with the probability that they are relevant to yield a final decision about which item to present to the expert for labeling. Experiments on several data sets have demonstrated that the Relevance Bias approach significantly decreases the number of irrelevant items queried and also accelerates learning speed.

Wagstaff, Kiri↗

Maximum likelihood estimation for life distributions with competing failure modes

Systems which are placed on test at time zero, function for a period and die at some random time were studied. Failure may be due to one of several causes or modes. The parameters of the life distribution may depend upon the levels of various stress variables the item is subject to. Maximum likelihood estimation methods are discussed. Specific methods are reported for the smallest extreme-value distributions of life. Monte-Carlo results indicate the methods to be promising. Under appropriate conditions, the location parameters are nearly unbiased, the scale parameter is slight biased, and the asymptotic covariances are rapidly approached.

Sidik, S. M.↗

Flight motor set 360L006 (STS-34). Volume 1: System overview

Flight motor set 360L006 was launched at approximately 11:54 a.m. Central Daylight Time (CDT) on 18 October 1989 as part of NASA space shuttle mission STS-34. As with all previous redesigned solid rocket motor launches, overall motor performance was excellent. All ballistic contract end item (CEI) specification parameters were verified with the exceptions of ignition interval and rise rates. Ignition interval and rise rates could not be verified due to the elimination of developmental flight instrumentation from fourth flight and subsequent, but the low sample rate data that were available showed nominal propulsion performance. All ballistic and mass property parameters closely matched the predicted values and were well within the required CEI specification levels that could be assessed, with the exception of the RH-motor vacuum-delivered specific impulse. It exceeds the upper-limit CEI specification due to a bias imposed on the raw data by the OPT/Taber gage measurement differences. Evaluation of the ground environment instrumentation measurements again verified thermal model analysis data and showed agreement with predicted environmental effects. No launch commit criteria thermal violations occurred. Postflight inspection again verified superior performance of the insulation, phenolics, metal parts, and seals. Postflight evaluation indicated both nozzles performed as expected during flight, although splashdown loads tore the left-hand, 45-deg actuator bracket from the nozzle. All combustion gas was contained by insulation in the field and nozzle-to-case joints. Recommendations were made concerning improved thermal modeling and measurements. The rationale for these recommendations, the disposition of all anomalies, and complete result details are contained.

Garecht, Diane M.↗