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Integrated circuit packaging and their testing is well advanced because of the maturity of the IC industry, their wide applications, and availability of industrial infrastructure.
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The objective of this challenge is to develop a data-based probabilistic model of uncertainty to predict the behavior of subsystems (payloads) by themselves and while coupled to a primary (target) system. Although this type of analysis is routinely performed and representative of issues faced in real-world system design and integration, there are still several key technical challenges that must be addressed when analyzing uncertain interconnected systems. For example, one key technical challenge is related to the fact that there is limited data on target configurations. Moreover, it is typical to have multiple data sets from experiments conducted at the subsystem level, but often samples sizes are not sufficient to compute high confidence statistics. In this challenge problem additional constraints are placed as ground rules for the participants. One such rule is that mathematical models of the subsystem are limited to linear approximations of the nonlinear physics of the problem at hand. Also, participants are constrained to use these models and the multiple data sets to make predictions about the target system response under completely different input conditions. Our approach involved initially the screening of several different methods. Three of the ones considered are presented herein. The first one is based on the transformation of the modal data to an orthogonal space where the mean and covariance of the data are matched by the model. The other two approaches worked solutions in physical space where the uncertain parameter set is made of masses, stiffnesses and damping coefficients; one matches confidence intervals of low order moments of the statistics via optimization while the second one uses a Kernel density estimation approach. The paper will touch on all the approaches, lessons learned, validation 1 metrics and their comparison, data quantity restriction, and assumptions/limitations of each approach. Keywords: Probabilistic modeling, model validation, uncertainty quantification, kernel density
NASA needs solar arrays that are thin, flexible, and highly efficient; package compactly for launch; and deploy into large, structurally stable high-power generators. Inverted metamorphic multijunction (IMM) solar cells can enable these arrays, but integration of this thin crystalline cell technology presents certain challenges. The Thin Hybrid Interconnected Solar Array (THINS) technology allows robust and reliable integration of IMM cells into a flexible blanket comprising standardized modules engineered for easy production. The modules support the IMM cell by using multifunctional materials for structural stability, shielding, coefficient of thermal expansion (CTE) stress relief, and integrated thermal and electrical functions. The design approach includes total encapsulation, which benefits high voltage as well as electrostatic performance.
Framing the strategic challenge posed by the interconnected, multitiered supply chains of mission projects managed by the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. Discussing conditions and risks which can disrupt or threaten the availability, production and delivery of products and services for complex space systems. Utilizing a holistic analytical framework, business intelligence techniques, an integrated information system platform and analytics to produce insight into suppliers / supply chains and associated risks. Advancing supply chain risk management capabilities to support the successful performance of space missions.
This paper will discuss some of the challenges in connecting mobile satellite users and mobile terrestrial users in a cost efficient manner and with a grade of service comparable to that of satellite to fixed user calls. Issues arising from the translation between the mobility management protocols resident at the satellite Earth station and those resident at cellular switches - either GSM (Group Special Mobile) or IS-41 (used by U.S. digital cellular systems) type - will be discussed. The impact of GSM call routing procedures on the call setup of a satellite to roaming GSM user will be described. Challenges facing provision of seamless call handoff between satellite and cellular systems will be given. A summary of the issues explored in the paper are listed and future work outlined.
Engineering design is a challenging activity for any product. Since launch vehicles are highly complex and interconnected and have extreme energy densities, their design represents a challenge of the highest order. The purpose of this document is to delineate and clarify the design process associated with the launch vehicle for space flight transportation. The goal is to define and characterize a baseline for the space transportation design process. This baseline can be used as a basis for improving effectiveness and efficiency of the design process. The baseline characterization is achieved via compartmentalization and technical integration of subsystems, design functions, and discipline functions. First, a global design process overview is provided in order to show responsibility, interactions, and connectivity of overall aspects of the design process. Then design essentials are delineated in order to emphasize necessary features of the design process that are sometimes overlooked. Finally the design process characterization is presented. This is accomplished by considering project technical framework, technical integration, process description (technical integration model, subsystem tree, design/discipline planes, decision gates, and tasks), and the design sequence. Also included in the document are a snapshot relating to process improvements, illustrations of the process, a survey of recommendations from experienced practitioners in aerospace, lessons learned, references, and a bibliography.
Progressive development of microsatellite technologies has resulted in increased demand for lightweight electrical power subsystems including solar arrays. The use of thin film photovoltaics has been recognized as a key solution to meet the power needs. The lightweight cells can generate sufficient power and still meet critical mass requirements. Commercially available solar cells produced on lightweight substrates are being studied as an option to fulfill the power needs. The commercially available solar cells are relatively inexpensive and have a high payoff potential. Commercially available thin film solar cells are primarily being produced for terrestrial applications. The need to convert the solar cell from a terrestrial to a space compatible application is the primary challenge. Solar cell contacts, grids and interconnects need to be designed to be atomic oxygen resistant and withstand rapid thermal cycling environments. A mechanically robust solar cell interconnect is also required in order to withstand handling during fabrication and survive during launch. The need to produce the solar cell interconnects has been identified as a primary goal of the Powersphere program and is the topic of this paper. Details of the trade study leading to the final design involving the solar cell wrap around contact, flex blanket, welding process, and frame will be presented at the conference.
A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM)operations at scale with electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles(EVs) over time. Under the best-case assumption that electricity can be transmitted and distributed as needed within each interconnection (i.e., electrical grid), it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the continental United States will decrease by 20% from about 595 thousand in the year 2021 to about 475 thousand in the year 2050due to the projected increase in ground EVs.
A wide range of challenges must be overcome to conduct Urban Air Mobility (UAM)operations at scale with electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft as envisioned. This paper documents an analysis of one potential infrastructure challenge for UAM: available electrical grid power capacity. The success of UAM depends on the availability of electricity, which will be increasingly impacted by the proliferation of ground electric vehicles(EVs) over time. Under the best-case assumption that electricity can be transmitted and distributed as needed within each interconnection (i.e., electrical grid), it is estimated that the maximum number of UAM aircraft that can charge simultaneously in the continental United States will decrease by 20% from about 595 thousand in the year 2021 to about 475 thousand in the year 2050due to the projected increase in ground EVs.
The network-complexity of LANs and of LANs that are interconnected by bridges and routers poses a challenging reliability-modeling problem. The present effort toward these problems' solution attempts to simplify them by reducing their number of states through truncation and state merging, as suggested by Shooman and Laemmel (1990). Through the use of state merging, it becomes possible to reduce the Bateman-Cortes 161 state model to a two state model with a closed-form solution. In the case of coupled networks, a technique which allows for problem-decomposition must be used.
MEMS quality and reliability challenges are discussed and needs for study in these areas are identified.
Advances in microelectronic parts performance are driving towards finer feature sizes, three-dimensional geometries and ever-increasing number of transistor equivalents that are resulting in increased die sizes and interconnection (I/O) counts. The resultant packaging necessary to provide assemble-ability, environmental protection, testability and interconnection to the circuit board for the active die creates major challenges, particularly for space applications, Traditionally, NASA has used hermetically packaged microcircuits whenever available but the new demands make hermetic packaging less and less practical at the same time as more and more expensive, Some part types of great interest to NASA designers are currently only available in non-hermetic packaging. It is a far more complex quality and reliability assurance challenge to gain confidence in the long-term survivability and effectiveness of nonhermetic packages than for hermetic ones. Although they may provide more rugged environmental protection than the familiar Plastic Encapsulated Microcircuits (PEMs), the non-hermetic Ceramic Column Grid Array (CCGA) packages that are the focus of this presentation present a unique combination of challenges to assessing their suitability for spaceflight use. The presentation will discuss the bases for these challenges, some examples of the techniques proposed to mitigate them and a proposed approach to a US MIL specification Class for non-hermetic microcircuits suitable for space application, Class Y, to be incorporated into M. IL-PRF-38535. It has recently emerged that some major packaging suppliers are offering hermetic area array packages that may offer alternatives to the nonhermetic CCGA styles but have also got their own inspectability and testability issues which will be briefly discussed in the presentation,
Many of the most challenging reliability problems of our present decade involve complex distributed systems such as interconnected telephone switching computers, air traffic control centers, aircraft and space vehicles, and local area and wide area computer networks. In addition to the challenge of complexity, modern fault-tolerant computer systems require very high levels of reliability, e.g., avionic computers with MTTF goals of one billion hours. Most analysts find that it is too difficult to model such complex systems without computer aided design programs. In response to this need, NASA has developed a suite of computer aided reliability modeling programs beginning with CARE 3 and including a group of new programs such as: HARP, HARP-PC, Reliability Analysts Workbench (Combination of model solvers SURE, STEM, PAWS, and common front-end model ASSIST), and the Fault Tree Compiler. The HARP program is studied and how well the user can model systems using this program is investigated. One of the important objectives will be to study how user friendly this program is, e.g., how easy it is to model the system, provide the input information, and interpret the results. The experiences of the author and his graduate students who used HARP in two graduate courses are described. Some brief comparisons were made with the ARIES program which the students also used. Theoretical studies of the modeling techniques used in HARP are also included. Of course no answer can be any more accurate than the fidelity of the model, thus an Appendix is included which discusses modeling accuracy. A broad viewpoint is taken and all problems which occurred in the use of HARP are discussed. Such problems include: computer system problems, installation manual problems, user manual problems, program inconsistencies, program limitations, confusing notation, long run times, accuracy problems, etc.
The scope and scale of our interconnected society requires that we view the world through a complex system lens, where numerous parts interact, and emergent behaviors are the norm. Understanding complex systems is critical for decision-making and policy development in domains such as ecological systems, financial markets, supply chains, and global transportation systems, where decision-makers need reliable information to predict the impact of decisions that may play out over decades. Traditional approaches to the research that produces this information are often insufficient, where hypotheses are tested in an isolated environment, and where the results may not carry over to the integrated system. There are a multitude of advancements in system engineering, artificial intelligence, and test and evaluation that are emerging to meet the challenge. Approaches such as agile development, model-based system engineering, design of experiments, large language models, and formal ontologies are providing ways to manage complexity and increase our collective ability to make the changes that we want to see in the world. In this talk I will provide a few examples related to the architecture of the National Airspace System (NAS), where we have investigated the use of large language models, basic formal ontology, and applied category theory to help researchers and system engineers be more effective in this complex design space. Bio: Dr. Ian Levitt’s current research focus is on the complex evolution of the National Airspace System. Prior to joining NASA in 2020, he was with the FAA leading international standards and national laboratory development for the agency. Dr. Levitt earned his PhD in mathematics from Rutgers University in 2009. His mission is to promote a healthy and continuous transformation of society through open information and cooperation.
Assuring safety in the NAS with the inclusion of new entrants, such as Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), will require overcoming unique safety challenges that result from combining innovative technologies with novel airspace concepts for moving people and cargo using autonomous vehicles. The focus of the In-time Aviation Safety Management System (IASMS) is to overcome AAM’s safety assurance challenges. The IASMS Concept of Operations (ConOps) describes an interconnected set of services, functions, and capabilities (SFCs) designed to manage operational risks, identify unknown risks, and inform system designs. This paper describes an approach for defining SFCs based on technology trends in research, assessment of known and unknown risks in voluntary safety reports, and causal and contributing factors in aviation accidents and incidents. This approach would identify potential SFCs that further expand the Monitor, Assess, and Mitigate (M-A-M) functionality that represents the enabling framework of the IASMS. Safety implications that will result from integration of AAM in the transformation of the National Airspace System (NAS) were addressed in National Academies committees reports on AAM and IASMS. Development of a ConOps for IASMS was a top recommendation and can be represented as a reframing of safety assurance that builds on real-time alerting such as the Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System, and adds the more encompassing in-time temporal parameter in recognition of the different timelines for collecting and assessing safety data for risk mitigations. For example, mining for safety trends from data sources such as the Aviation Safety Information Analysis and Sharing system occurs over a longer time period. Research on AAM operations poses that SFCs can be designed to monitor the safety margin appropriate for AAM including with regards to the distance between current flight parameters and nominal ideal conditions. These in-time comparisons will become more complex as the density of operations increases at least in certain areas and can include planned and actual 4D trajectory, and in-time comparisons having implications on conflict modeling and prediction including expected and actual departure time, fix/waypoint crossing times, and arrival time. These comparisons would be integrated as part of SFCs that redefine and inform new safety margin. An increased safety margin improves management of operational risks while reducing the potential for anomalies. An increased safety margin also has implications for operator confidence in the certainty of its operations and trust in automation. Technology trends in research could be used to refine existing SFCs and define needs for additional SFCs that provide safety improvements to the design and operation of vehicles, airspace design, and operator performance requirements. NASA is developing innovative approaches to safeguard against major accidents and incidents that have occurred in the NAS and those anticipated with the inclusion of envisioned AAM operations. The innovations use operational performance data to monitor, detect, and predict flight variations exceeding safe nominal patterns, such as would be caused by navigational error, severe weather complications, or hijacking of UAS controls. These innovative approaches have high potential to prevent accidents and incidents in the new AAM era. It is anticipated that elements of the innovations will evolve into SFCs for the IASMS. Voluntary safety reports can be monitored to identify anomalies related to design or operational performance risks. Reports could be periodically monitored and assessed for specific topics. Reports might serve as weak signals or precursors indicative of emergent risk such as when combined with other safety information. The architecture could include SFCs that are based on voluntary safety reports recognizing the periodic temporal nature of data analysis. As previously mentioned, aviation accidents with their causal and contributing precursors can inform the need for SFCs in the IASMS. Accidents and incidents at San Francisco International Airport such as Asiana 214 and Air Canada 759 illustrate how combinations of different factors lead to increased risk. These types of precursors and different factors have implications on the types of SFCs that could be needed to monitor and manage different sources and types of design and operational risk. Continuing to assure the safety of AAM as designs and operations gain in complexity can be accompanied by defining SFCs that also increase in complexity. These SFCs can leverage information from findings and recommendations synthesized across on-going research, voluntary safety reports, and accident and incident reports. These SFCs can serve to refine accuracy of algorithms and resolve limitations with current practices. The IASMS architecture represents the framework for the SFCs and their critical role in safety assurance.
During solar cycle 22, a very intense geomagnetic storm on 13 March 1989 contributed to the collapse of the Hydro-Quebec power system in Canada. This event clearly demonstrated that geomagnetic storms have the potential to lead to blackouts. This paper addresses whether geomagnetic activity challenged power system reliability during solar cycle 23. Operations by PJM Interconnection, LLC (hereafter PJM), a regional transmission organization in North America, are examined over the period 1 April 2002 through 30 April 2004. During this time PJM coordinated the movement of wholesale electricity in all or parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of Columbia in the United States. We examine the relationship between a proxy of geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) and a metric of challenged reliability. In this study, GICs are proxied using magnetometer data from a geomagnetic observatory located just outside the PJM control area. The metric of challenged reliability is the incidence of out-of-economic-merit order dispatching due to adverse reactive power conditions. The statistical methods employed make it possible to disentangle the effects of GICs on power system operations from purely terrestrial factors. The results of the analysis indicate that geomagnetic activity can significantly increase the likelihood that the system operator will dispatch generating units based on system stability considerations rather than economic merit.
In this paper we present a systematic study of how intra-spacecraft wireless communication can be adopted to various subsystems of the spacecraft including C&DH (Command & Data Handling), Telecom, Power, Propulsion, and Payloads, and the interconnects between them. We discuss the advantages of intra-spacecraft wireless communication and the disadvantages and challenges and a proposal to address them.