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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Getting brighter: Impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts in high-solar, high-storage electricity systems

This paper analyzes the impacts of improved day-ahead solar forecasts on costs and dispatch in the solar-rich Southeast U.S. It uses an optimized high-solar, high-storage resource portfolio in which solar generation capacity accounts for 45 % of total installed capacity (34 %–36 % of generation) and energy storage capacity (43 GW) is equivalent to 33 % of peak demand. In a base scenario, improved day-ahead solar forecasts reduce production costs by $\$87$ million per year ($\$0.13$ per MWh load, $2023$$). This level of savings is within the range or lower than earlier studies of solar forecast improvements at lower levels of solar generation (<25 % of total generation). In this study, solar expansion was accompanied by two important sources of flexibility for managing solar forecast error: energy storage and day-ahead solar curtailment. Furthermore, the analysis finds that regional coordination complements day-ahead solar forecast improvements while natural gas commitment flexibility is a substitute for forecast improvements, as the improved solar forecast leads to sub-optimal commitment of thermal units. Day-ahead solar forecast improvements reduce reserves required to manage forecast error by 30 %. Fewer reserves to manage large, infrequent solar forecast errors could be an important benefit of improved solar forecasts.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗
DOE OSTI2025

Engineering PHL7 for Improved Poly(Ethylene Terephthalate) Depolymerization via Rational Design and Directed Evolution

Enzymatic depolymerization of poly(ethylene terephthalate) (PET) has emerged as a promising approach for polyester recycling, and, to date, many natural and engineered PET hydrolase enzymes have been reported. For industrial use, PET hydrolases must achieve high depolymerization extent and exhibit excellent thermostability. Here, we engineered a natural PET hydrolase, Polyester Hydrolase Leipzig #7 (PHL7), through rational design and directed evolution using a high-throughput screening platform. Four new enzymes were engineered with enhanced properties compared with the parent enzyme, wild-type PHL7 (PHL7-WT), and other benchmark PET hydrolases, under the tested conditions. In bioreactors, the exemplary engineered enzyme, PHL7-Jemez, exhibited improved ability to depolymerize amorphous PET film compared with PHL7-WT at 2.9% and 20% substrate loadings, with 37% and 270% higher hydrolysis, respectively, after 48 h. This study develops several state-of-the-art PET hydrolases and demonstrates a directed evolution platform to engineer high-performance enzymes, which can accelerate enzyme discovery toward improved biocatalytic recycling.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improving Aerosol Radiative Forcing and Climate in E3SM: Impacts of New Cloud Microphysics and Improved Wet Removal Treatments

Abstract Numerous Earth system models exhibit excessive aerosol effective forcing at the top of the atmosphere (TOA), including the Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). Here, in the context of the E3SM version 3 effort, the predicted particle property (P3) stratiform cloud microphysics scheme and an enhanced deep convection parameterization suite (ZM_plus) are implemented into E3SM. The ZM_plus includes a convective cloud microphysics scheme, a multi‐scale coherent structure parameterization for mesoscale convective systems, and a revised cloud base mass flux formulation considering impacts of the large‐scale environment. The P3 scheme improved cloud and radiation particularly over the Northern Hemisphere and the frequency of heavy precipitation over the tropics, and the ZM_plus improved clouds in the tropics. P3 decreases aerosol effective forcing by 0.15 W m −2 , while the ZM_plus increases it by 0.27 W m −2 , resulting from excessive direct (0.31 W m −2 ) and indirect forcing (−1.79 W m −2 ). The excessive aerosol forcings are due to aerosol overestimation associated with insufficient aerosol wet removal. By improving the physical treatments in the aerosol wet removal, we effectively mitigate anthropogenic aerosol overestimation and thus attenuate direct (0.09 W m −2 ) and indirect aerosol forcing (−1.52 W m −2 ). Adjustment to primary organic matter hygroscopicity reduces direct and indirect forcing to more reasonable values: −0.13 W m −2 and −1.31 W m −2 , respectively. On climatology, improved aerosol treatments mitigate overestimation of aerosol optical depth.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape: Modeling Archive

This modeling archive is in support of the Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments in the Arctic (NGEE Arctic) publication "Integrating Characteristic Arctic Vegetation in a Land Surface Model Improves Representation of Carbon Dynamics Across a Tundra Landscape", by Murphy et al. (2025). This archive contains model input files and outputs from landscape-scale simulations conducted using ELM, the land model component of the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), at the Council NGEE Arctic field site (Council Road mile marker 71) on Alaska’s Seward Peninsula. Input data and model output from two sets of ELM simulations are provided. The first set of simulations were conducted with the two default ELM Arctic plant functional types (PFTs; broadleaf deciduous boreal shrub and a C3 grass) and the second set of simulations were conducted with a set of nine Arctic-specific PFTs including nonvascular mosses and lichens, graminoids, forbs, evergreen dwarf shrubs, three height classes of deciduous shrubs (dwarf, low, and low to tall), and deciduous alder shrubs (Sulman et al., 2021). Parameter names and major parameter changes in the Arctic-specific PFT configuration are described in Sulman et al. (2021) and archived in the Sulman et al. (2021) dataset (see below). Simulations were spatially explicit, covering an approximately 6.4X3.3 km domain at the Council site with a spatial resolution of 100 m for a total of 2,112 simulated grid cells under each ELM PFT configuration. The modeling archive contains meteorological forcing (seven *.nc files and one *.txt file), a domain definition file (one *.nc files), land surface configuration files (two *.nc files), parameter files (two *.nc files), annual ELM output files spanning 1980-2014 (68 *.nc files), and a User’s Guide (*pdf file). Additional information on the provided files is in the “Modeling Archive Contents” section of the User’s Guide. Model outputs are aggregated to the column scale (i.e. PFT-specific outputs are not provided here).

Murphy, Bailey [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000203995221)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving the Economic Viability of Biological Utilization of Coal Power Plant CO 2 by Improved Algae Productivity and Integration with Wastewater Treatment

The overall goal of this project was to improve the cost-effectiveness of systems using algae to capture and beneficially utilize CO 2 from the flue gas of coal-fired power plants. Algal biomass cultivation is an attractive alternative for carbon capture and utilization because it can uptake more CO 2 per land area than any other photosynthetic crop. Also, the resulting biomass can be used to make valuable large-market commodity products, such as biofuels and animal feed. However, the use of algal carbon capture has been limited by several factors including: (1) high costs for growing algae (>$\$1,300$/ton), (2) large land requirements for algae cultivation, and (3) environmental concerns about the large amount of water and nutrient inputs needed for growing algae. This project has taken direct aim at resolving these key limitations and demonstrated several viable approaches to improve the economic and environmental feasibility of algal carbon capture. In particular, this project demonstrated a significant increase in average annual algal productivity from baseline values of 8 g/m 2 -day to above 20 g/m 2 -day. This supports a much lower projected cost of algae production (<$\$500$/ton) and reduces land requirements by more than 50%. Additionally, this project confirmed the ability to grow multiple algae species with wastewater nutrients, which facilitates the potential for substantial new revenue streams for algae cultivation based on tipping fees for nutrient laden wastewater. This study highlighted that there is more potential value in wastewater nutrient treatment credits than in the primary commodity products made from algae. The use of wastewater inputs also mitigates the concerns associated with the large amount of water needed for growing algae. The algal biomass grown for this project using wastewater and simulated flue gas inputs were characterized for potential use as an animal feed ingredient. The algae had a protein content in the range of 35-40%, which is between some common commodity animal feed products— distiller’s grains (~25-30% protein) and soybean meal (45-50% protein). In-vitro digestion tests using cattle rumen fluids, showed that this algae biomass was best suited for use as “bypass protein”, which is digested in the animal intestine. Based on the protein content and amino acid profile of the algae grown in this study, it was estimated to have market value in the range of $\$190$-$\$280$/ton. There is potential for higher value feed products if the algae content of omega-3 fatty acids or antioxidants is accounted for. This project also did small scale demonstration of forward osmosis algae dewatering and nanofiltration of hydrothermal liquefaction aqueous products, which were shown to improve the cost and energy balance for producing algal products. When all the improvements demonstrated in this study were included in techno-economic analysis, it showed there was a viable pathway to profitable algal CO 2 utilization with a payback period in the range of six to ten years.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recommendations to Improve Nuclear Licensing: Update to INL/RPT-23-72206, Recommendations to Improve the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Licensing and Approval Process

In 2023, various stakeholders had asked for BEA’s thoughts and recommendations to improve the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC) licensing review and approval process. This included an April 14, 2023 request from the House Committee on Energy and Commerce on “information and recommendations to improve the licensing review and approval process, . . . as well as the siting, licensing, construction, and oversight of advanced nuclear reactor technologies.” In response to these requests, BEA prepared and published INL/RPT-23-72206, Recommendations to Improve the Nuclear Regulatory Commission Reactor Licensing and Approval Process (2023 Report). The 2023 Report included 13 recommendations related to streamlining NRC hearings, expediting NRC safety and environmental reviews, otherwise improving NRC licensing, and providing financial benefits to new reactor projects. Many of these earlier recommendations were addressed through various legislative actions or changes made by the NRC. Section 2 of this report addresses the current status of those earlier recommendations. BEA recently received a new request from the House Committee on Energy and Commerce seeking any suggestions for additional areas to examine or potential reforms “that may assist in modernizing the licensing and regulatory process that affects civil nuclear deployment.” Additionally, the new Secretary of Energy has identified initial DOE actions to support unleashing the golden era of American energy dominance, including “Unleash Commercial Nuclear Power in the United States” and “Streamline Permitting and Identify Undue Burdens on American Energy.” Given these developments, BEA has prepared a new set of updated recommendations in this report. The recommendations include updated versions of recommendations from the 2023 Report which have not been fully adopted, as well as entirely new recommendations. This set of recommendations has a slightly broader focus with some recommendations focused on DOE authorizations and some recommendations related to nuclear licensing beyond new reactors. Each recommendation below also identifies whether the recommendation would require legislative action or could be addressed directly by the respective agency.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increasing the Electrolyte Salinity to Improve the Performance of Anion Exchange Membrane Water Electrolyzers

Direct operation of anion exchange membrane water electrolyzers (AEMWEs) with near-neutral pH feeds avoids the use of highly alkaline and corrosive solutions. However, using neutral pH solutions currently faces fundamental operational challenges that diminish performance and reduce long-term stability due to poor solution conductivity and low hydroxide ion concentration. Here, we showed that amending near-neutral pH solutions with low concentrations of alkali metal salts in a dry-cathode configuration substantially improved performance and stability. Adding NaClO 4 (10 mM) to the anolyte reduced the operating voltage by 0.19 to 2.58 V at 500 mA/cm 2 compared to non-saline solutions (2.77 V). However, further increases in the feed salt concentration (100 mM NaClO 4 ) reduced performance (2.64 V) due to a greater co-ion diffusion through the anion exchange membrane. Electrolyzer performance was further improved by utilizing salts with high conductivity such as KNO 3 . Using a saline anolyte reduced ohmic resistance, resulting in smaller applied voltage and energy consumption for hydrogen generation, while the combined effect of the membrane charge and the electric field direction in the dry-cathode feed configuration minimized ion crossover. Thus, increasing the salinity of near-neutral pH solutions represents a cost-effective strategy to improve the performance of AEMWE compared to ultrapure electrolytes, minimizing risks and costs associated with recirculating highly alkaline solutions.

anion exchange membrane water electrolyzer↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved Primary Reference Cell Calibrations for Higher Accuracy Photovoltaic Cell and Module Performance Measurements

The adoption of photovoltaic (PV) modules for clean electricity relies on accurate measurements of their performance, which are essential for estimating their energy production potential. Herein, the calibration chain of PV cells and modules, with particular emphasis on primary reference cell calibrations, is discussed. Also, herein, the direct sunlight method the group has developed for these calibrations is presented and critical improvements and upgrades that lead to calibration uncertainty as low as 0.45% are discussed. The ultimate motivation behind this work is to provide low‐uncertainty performance measurements of PV modules, and lowering the calibration uncertainty of primary reference cells is a key first step toward achieving this goal. As the use of solar electricity continues to grow, the demand for primary reference cell calibrations inevitably increases beyond what the small handful of primary calibration laboratories can provide today. Therefore, this work can serve as a useful guide for implementing primary PV reference cell calibrations using the outdoor method, as well as outlining the critical elements required to make these calibrations highly accurate.

Osterwald, Carl R.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning for Improving Surface-Layer-Flux Estimates

Abstract Flows in the atmospheric boundary layer are turbulent, characterized by a large Reynolds number, the existence of a roughness sublayer and the absence of a well-defined viscous layer. Exchanges with the surface are therefore dominated by turbulent fluxes. In numerical models for atmospheric flows, turbulent fluxes must be specified at the surface; however, surface fluxes are not known a priori and therefore must be parametrized. Atmospheric flow models, including global circulation, limited area models, and large-eddy simulation, employ Monin–Obukhov similarity theory (MOST) to parametrize surface fluxes. The MOST approach is a semi-empirical formulation that accounts for atmospheric stability effects through universal stability functions. The stability functions are determined based on limited observations using simple regression as a function of the non-dimensional stability parameter representing a ratio of distance from the surface and the Obukhov length scale (Obukhov in Trudy Inst Theor Geofiz AN SSSR 1:95–115, 1946), $$z/L$$ z / L . However, simple regression cannot capture the relationship between governing parameters and surface-layer structure under the wide range of conditions to which MOST is commonly applied. We therefore develop, train, and test two machine-learning models, an artificial neural network (ANN) and random forest (RF), to estimate surface fluxes of momentum, sensible heat, and moisture based on surface and near-surface observations. To train and test these machine-learning algorithms, we use several years of observations from the Cabauw mast in the Netherlands and from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Field Research Division tower in Idaho. The RF and ANN models outperform MOST. Even when we train the RF and ANN on one set of data and apply them to the second set, they provide more accurate estimates of all of the fluxes compared to MOST. Estimates of sensible heat and moisture fluxes are significantly improved, and model interpretability techniques highlight the logical physical relationships we expect in surface-layer processes.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2024

Increased accuracy and signal-to-noise ratio through recent improvements in infra-red video bolometer fabrication and calibration

The infra-red video bolometer (IRVB) is a diagnostic equipped with an infra-red camera that measures the total radiated power in thousands of lines of sight within a large field of view. Recently validated in MAST-U [Fderici et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 94, 033502 (2023)], it offers a high spatial resolution map of the radiated power in the divertor region, where large gradients are expected. The IRVB’s sensing element comprises a thin layer of high Z absorbing material, typically platinum, usually coated with carbon to reduce reflections [Peterson et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 79, 10E301 (2008)].Here, the possibility of using a relatively inert material such as titanium, is explored that can be produced in layers up to 1 μm compared to 2.5 μm for Pt and then coat it with Pt of the desired thickness (0.3 μm per side here) and carbon. This leads to a higher temperature signal (about 3 times) and better spatial resolution (about 4 times), resulting in higher accuracy in the measured power [Peterson et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 79, 10E301 (2008)]. This assembly is also expected to improve foil uniformity, as the Pt layer is obtained via deposition rather than mechanical processes [Mukai et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 87, 2014 (2016)].Given its multi-material composition, measuring the thermal properties of the foil assembly is vital. Various methods using a calibrated laser as a heat source have been developed, analyzing the temperature profile shape [Sano et al., Plasma and Fusion Res. 7, 2405039 (2012)] and [Mukai et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 89, 10E114 (2018)] or fitting the calculated laser power for different intensities and frequencies [Fderici et al., Rev. Sci. Instrum. 94, 033502 (2023)]. Here, a simpler approach is presented, which relies on analyzing the separate components of the foil heat equation for a single laser exposure in a given area. This can then be iterated over the entire foil to capture local deviations.

Magnetic Fusion Energy↗
DOE OSTI2022

Improving Traditional Registrational Trial End Points: Development and Application of a Desirability of Outcome Ranking End Point for Complicated Urinary Tract Infection Clinical Trials

Abstract Background Traditional end points used in registrational randomized, controlled trials (RCTs) often do not allow for complete interpretation of the full range of potential clinical outcomes. Desirability of outcome ranking (DOOR) is an approach to the design and analysis of clinical trials that incorporates benefits and risks of novel treatment strategies and provides a global assessment of patient experience. Methods Through a multidisciplinary committee of experts in infectious diseases, clinical trial design, drug regulation, and patient experience, we developed a DOOR end point for infectious disease syndromes and demonstrated how this could be applied to 3 registrational drug trials (ZEUS, APEKS-cUTI, and DORI-05) for complicated urinary tract infections (cUTIs). ZEUS compared fosfomycin to piperacillin/tazobactam, APEKS-cUTI compared cefiderocol to imipenem, and DORI-05 compared doripenem to levofloxacin. Using DOOR, we estimated the probability of a more desirable outcome with each investigational antibacterial drug. Results In each RCT, the DOOR distribution was similar and the probability that a patient in the investigational arm would have a more desirable outcome than a patient in the control arm had a 95% confidence interval containing 50%, indicating no significant difference between treatment arms. DOOR facilitated improved understanding of potential trade-offs between clinical efficacy and safety. Partial credit and subgroup analyses also highlight unique attributes of DOOR. Conclusions DOOR can effectively be used in registrational cUTI trials. The DOOR end point presented here can be adapted for other infectious disease syndromes and prospectively incorporated into future clinical trials.

Immunology↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improved quasiparticle self-consistent electronic band structure and excitons in β – LiGaO 2

The band structure of β–LiGaO 2 is calculated using the quasiparticle self-consistent QSGWˆ method where the screened Coulomb interaction Wˆ is evaluated including electron-hole interaction ladder diagrams and G is the one-electron Green's function. Improved convergence compared to previous calculations leads to a significantly larger band gap of about 7.0 eV. However, exciton binding energies are found to be large and lead to an exciton gap of about 6.0 eV if also a zero-point-motion correction of about –0.4 eV is included. Furthermore, these results are in excellent agreement with recent experimental results on the onset of absorption. Besides the excitons observed thus far, the calculations indicate the existence of a Rydberg-like series of exciton excited states, which is however modified from the classical Wannier exciton model by the anisotropies of the material and the more complex mixing of Bloch states in the excitons resulting from the Bethe-Salpeter equation. The exciton fine structure and the exciton wave functions are visualized and analyzed in various ways.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Improving Resiliency for Electric Vehicle Charging

Electric vehicles are seeing growing adoption. However, challenges with range anxiety persists. While charging infrastructure is anticipated to expand, EV charger systems have not been as robust to challenges. This paper discusses potential outage conditions associated with EV charging and presents new technology in development to improve EV charging resilience.

Electric vehicle charging, electric vehicle chargi↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating 5G Technology for Improved Process Monitoring and Network Slicing in ICS

Industrial Control Systems (ICS) are crucial for monitoring physical processes that support essential cyber-enabled services like power generation. The use of proprietary communication and lack of effective intrusion detection mechanisms pose constraints for efficient operation. Therefore, there is a need to modernize these systems with decentralized technologies like Edge Computing and 5G. However, integrating 5G and Edge Computing into large-scale ICS networks presents implementation and performance challenges. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an integrated ICS architecture that combines 5G and Edge Computing technologies with traditional ICS protocols. The objective is to minimize implementation and operational difficulties while improving the monitoring of physical processes and enabling robust intrusion detection. The proposed architecture outlines the necessary components, services, and communication protocols required for the integration of 5G and Edge Computing.

Aguayo, Jared M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving Process Level Understanding of Boundary Layer Winds over the Northeast U.S. Shelf: The Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3)

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), a U.S. Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored investigation, sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the marine atmospheric boundary layer. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and submesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high-use coastal zone, using a 3D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large autonomous barge platform. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed that are being evaluated within regional coupled and uncoupled modeling systems, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's foundational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model.

Kirincich, Anthony↗
DOE OSTI2024

Improved Diagnosis of Precipitation Type with LightGBM Machine Learning

Abstract Existing precipitation-type algorithms have difficulty discerning the occurrence of freezing rain and ice pellets. These inherent biases are not only problematic in operational forecasting but also complicate the development of model-based precipitation-type climatologies. To address these issues, this paper introduces a novel light gradient-boosting machine (LightGBM)-based machine learning precipitation-type algorithm that utilizes reanalysis and surface observations. By comparing it with the Bourgouin precipitation-type algorithm as a baseline, we demonstrate that our algorithm improves the critical success index (CSI) for all examined precipitation types. Moreover, when compared with the precipitation-type diagnosis in reanalysis, our algorithm exhibits increased F1 scores for snow, freezing rain, and ice pellets. Subsequently, we utilize the algorithm to compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. The resulting climatology pattern aligns well with observations; however, a significant mean bias is observed. We interpret this bias to be influenced by both the algorithm itself and assumptions regarding precipitation processes, which include biases associated with freezing drizzle, precipitation occurrence, and regional synoptic weather patterns. To mitigate the overall bias, we propose increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 , as it better reflects the precision of precipitation observations. This adjustment yields a substantial reduction in the overall bias. Finally, given the strong performance of LightGBM in predicting mixed precipitation episodes, we anticipate that the algorithm can be effectively utilized in operational settings and for diagnosing precipitation types in climate model outputs. Significance Statement Freezing rain can have significant impacts on transportation and infrastructure, making accurate prediction of precipitation types crucial. In this study, we use a machine learning method known as LightGBM to predict precipitation types. We show that the new algorithm performs better than the existing methods for all precipitation types examined. Additionally, we compute a freezing-rain climatology over the eastern United States. Although the resulting climatology pattern corresponds well to observations, the algorithm overpredicts freezing-rain occurrence. We argue that this bias can be substantially reduced by increasing the precipitation cutoff from 0.04 to 0.25 mm h −1 . Overall, this work highlights the potential of the LightGBM algorithm for both weather forecasting and diagnosing precipitation types in climate models.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗