SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “imbalance risk”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 19 records

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2022

Flexibility Auctions: A Framework for Managing Imbalance Risk

As the electricity generated by variable resources grows, system operators and variable resources have to manage challenging imbalances between forward and real-time markets. The Flexibility Auction is a novel approach for managing imbalances as it will allow resources with imbalance risk to hedge their production by buying flexibility options. The flexibility options are offered by grid-connected resources that can provide physical flexibility. This presentation will focus on the design of the Flexibility Auction, its properties, and how it can complement system-level services such as CAISO's proposed imbalance reserves. The presentation will include simple examples to illustrate the impact of the Flexibility Auction on the market participants and the system's imbalance risk.

auction↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flexibility Options: A Proposed ISO Product for Managing Energy Imbalance Risk

As the electricity generated by variable resources grows, system operators and variable resources have to manage challenging imbalances between forward and real-time markets. The Flexibility Auction is a novel approach for managing imbalances as it will allow resources with imbalance risk to hedge their production by buying flexibility options. The flexibility options are offered by grid-connected resources that can provide physical flexibility. This presentation provides an overview of the participants in the auction, the definition of flexibility options, and settlements.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

DOE OSTI2025

Flexibility Options: A Proposed Product for Managing Imbalance Risk

The presence of variable renewable energy resources with uncertain outputs in day-ahead electricity markets results in additional balancing needs in real-time. Addressing those needs cost-effectively and reliably within a competitive market with unbundled products is challenging as both the demand for and the availability of flexibility depends on day-ahead energy schedules. Existing approaches for reserve procurement usually rely either on oversimplified demand curves that do not consider how system conditions that particular day affect the value of flexibility, or on bilateral trading of hedging instruments that are not co-optimized with day-ahead schedules. This article proposes a new product, ‘Flexibility Options', to address these two limitations. The demand for this product is endogenously determined in the day-ahead market and it is met cost-effectively by considering real-time supply curves for product providers, which are co-optimized with the energy supply. As we illustrate with numerical examples and mathematical analysis, the product addresses the hedging needs of participants with imbalances cost-effectively, provides a less intermittent revenue stream for participants with flexible outputs, promotes value-driven pricing of flexibility, and ensures that the system operator is revenue-neutral. This article provides a comprehensive design that can be further tested and applied in large-scale systems.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond [Slides]

In wholesale electricity markets today, flexibility from a limited number of distributed energy resources (DERs) is offered daily, and the value of flexibility is not yet recognized for economic hedging of delivery risk. Under a three-year project funded by the ARPA-E PERFORM program, a collaborative team is working towards developing an integrated risk management framework that will leverage flexibility from distributed and bulk resources to cost-effectively and reliably manage delivery risk of intermittent resources. Two concepts are at the core of the proposed integrated risk management framework: (A) flexibility options, which are a novel type of options and enable wholesale electricity market participants to hedge uncertainty by buying flexibility. (B) DER flexibility scores, which provide a way for utilities or aggregators to classify assets in groups with different likelihood of delivering contracted flexibility. This report presentation will focus on the proposed ISO-product "flexibility options," which is complementary to ramp and other products being introduced by ISOs/RTOs to manage net load uncertainties. Participating resources with imbalance risk can buy flexibility options to hedge their production, whereas grid-connected resources that can provide physical flexibility can offer flexibility options. We will present basics of the formulation for a day-ahead ISO market that matches buyers and sellers of this hedge in coordination with existing capabilities to schedule energy and ancillary services, and outline how their settlements mitigate the impact of imbalance risk.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Managing Uncertainty and Flexibility in Day-Ahead Electricity Markets

Net load imbalances from day ahead forecasts can lead to significant grid operations costs and are expected to increase as variable renewable energy adoption grows. We propose a new wholesale market product to manage the risk of net load imbalances called Flexibility Options. This product relies on probabilistic forecasts to estimate flexibility demand and would be co-optimized in the day-ahead market. We also propose stochastic methods that enable DER and flexible load aggregators to participate in flexibility markets while considering the uncertainty in weather and occupant behavior.

day-ahead market↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the role of Battery Energy Storage Systems in the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment problem under renewable penetration

The integration of variable Renewable Energy Sources (vRES) to alleviate greenhouse gas emissions has introduced significant challenges for power systems operations. These challenges include high levels of uncertainty due to the intermittence associated with vRES and therefore impose the need to devise a reliable and cost-effective day-ahead unit commitment and power and reserves scheduling for real-time operations. Also, this increasing penetration of vRES requires higher ramping capabilities from units originally designed for other purposes (e.g., base-load generation), which might be exacerbated during contingency states. Hence, in this work, we propose a methodology to address the day-ahead Contingency-Constrained Unit Commitment (CCUC) problem that leverages the participation of Battery Energy Storage Systems (BESSs) to address load-following and post-contingency management, therefore alleviating the ramping burden on conventional thermal generators. To do so, we formulate a three-level optimization problem that represents the decision-making process of obtaining the least-cost commitment, generation and reserves scheduling, while restricting the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) of the system imbalance at real-time operations to user-defined tolerance levels. In addition, we devise a computationally efficient solution approach for the proposed problem based on the Column-and Constraint Generation (CCG) algorithmic framework. Two numerical experiments are conducted to empirically illustrate the benefits of the proposed methodology. Key results indicate a reduction in real-time ramping needs and a better usage of the system resources, with a reduction in the overall system commitment levels and reserve scheduling costs when compared to a benchmark case in which storage is not available.

Moreira, Alexandre↗

DOE OSTI2026

Rare Earth Production in the United States: A Concise Review of Resource Development and Commercial Processes

This review article presents a concise review of estimated resources, processing methods and challenges involved in domestic rare earth mining projects in the United States (US). It also highlights the current status of major mining projects, anticipated rare earth production in the near future, and commercial projects utilizing non-traditional feedstocks for rare earth production and recycling. Based on the current industry outlook, opportunities for R&D have also been highlighted. Perspective on domestic rare earth production capability is essential because global rare earth production is currently dominated by China. Given potential export controls by China, this imbalance has created supply chain risk. The US and other countries have limited rare earth production capacity and relatively little expertise in rare earth processing. However, in the last decade, efforts have been made by several nations, including the US, to reduce their reliance on China for rare earth and other critical minerals. The US is currently investing in projects to develop domestic rare earth separation and refining capacity. These projects are discussed here. When backed by R&D and government support, these projects have potential to make significant progress towards establishment of domestic rare earth separation capabilities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigating the Impact of Temporal and Directional Traffic Distribution on Crash Frequencies

Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) are mathematical models that establish relationships between the frequency of various crash types and site-specific characteristics, serving as essential tools for traffic safety analysis and roadway design. Traditional SPFs, however, often overlook the temporal fluctuations in traffic flow (such as peak-hour surges) and directional imbalances between opposing traffic streams. These traffic patterns can exacerbate congestion, disrupt driver behavior, and create unexpected conflict points, potentially leading to increased crash frequencies and more severe accidents. In light of this gap, this study aims to explore the potential of incorporating K-factors (representing peak-hour traffic proportions) and D-factors (reflecting the imbalance of directional traffic) into the development of SPFs to assess whether these factors can effectively represent the impact of temporal and spatial traffic distribution on roadway safety. Using crash data from Pennsylvania urban-suburban collector roadways, it is found that the D-factor plays a significant role in predicting the frequency of total crashes, fatal + injury crashes, and angle crashes, with positive coefficient signs indicating that higher directional imbalances correspond to increased crash risks. Similarly, the K-factor emerges as a critical predictor for fatal + injury crashes and rear-end crashes, with negative coefficients suggesting that a more pronounced traffic peak is associated with a reduction in expected crash frequencies. These results highlight the importance of accounting for uneven traffic distribution in both time and direction when developing SPFs, offering deeper insights into crash patterns and supporting more effective safety interventions and roadway designs.

Xu, Guanhao [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000214326357)↗

DOE OSTI2023

An Integrated Framework for Effective Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

Net load imbalances due to imperfect day-ahead forecasts can cause variability in real-time electricity prices and higher system operations costs. We propose a novel market product called Flexibility Options that allow participants to hedge uncertainty by buying flexibility from flexible resources. Simulations show that flexibility options can reduce total system operating costs by up to 15% and can reduce variability in market participant revenues. To better quantify the flexibility that DER aggregators can provide, we develop DER flexibility scores that account for asset flexibility and uncertainty from occupant behavior and weather. Preliminary results show that realistic sets of DERs have significant variability in flexibility and uncertainty metrics.

delivery risk↗

DOE OSTI2025

An Integrated Paradigm for the Management of Delivery Risk in Electricity Markets: From Batteries to Insurance and Beyond

If power systems transition to integrate higher amounts of variable renewable energy sources, storage technologies, and distributed energy resources (DERs), new risk management frameworks are necessary to ensure cost-effective and reliable power system operations. Projects funded by the Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy (ARPA-E) Performance-based Energy Resource Feedback, Optimization, and Risk Management (PERFORM) program aim to contribute new risk management frameworks by developing methods to quantify and manage risk at grid asset and system levels. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) led a PERFORM project in collaboration with the Johns Hopkins University, the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI), kWh Analytics, Packetized Energy, and Imperial Consultants (ICON). The project addressed two challenges related to risk management in electricity markets: managing net load imbalances and flexibility from DERs. This final technical report presents a list of project accomplishments, activities, and outputs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRS2020

In-Flight Detection of Vibration Anomalies in Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

Owing to the frequency of occurrence and high risk associated with bearings, identification and characterization of bearing faults in motors via nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods have been studied extensively, amongst which vibration analysis has been found to be a promising technique for early diagnosis of anomalies. However, a majority of the existing techniques rely on vibration sensors attached onto or in close proximity to the motor in order to collect signals with a relatively high SNR. Due to weight and space restrictions, these techniques cannot be used in unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), especially during flight operations since accelerometers cannot be attached onto motors in small UAVs. Small UAVs are often subjected to vibrational disturbances caused by multiple factors such as weather turbulence, propeller imbalance or bearing faults. Such anomalies may not only pose risks to UAV's internal circuitry, components or payload, they may also generate undesirable noise level particularly for UAVs expected to fly in low-altitudes or urban canyon. This paper presents a detailed discussion of challenges in in-flight detection of bearing failure in UAVs using existing approaches and offers potential solutions to detect overall vibration anomalies in small UAV operations based on IMU data.

Portia Banerjee↗

NASA NTRS1984

Determination of hot-spot susceptibility of multistring photovoltaic modules in a central-station application

Part of the effort of the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL) Flat-Plate Solar Array Project (FSA) includes a program to improve module and array reliability. A collaborative activity with industry dealing with the problem of hot-spot heating due to the shadowing of photovoltaic cells in modules and arrays containing several paralleled cell strings is described. The use of multiparallel strings in large central-station arrays introduces the likelihood of unequal current sharing and increased heating levels. Test results that relate power dissipated, current imbalance, cross-strapping frequency, and shadow configuration to hot-spot heating levels are presented. Recommendations for circuit design configurations appropriate to central-station applications that reduce the risk of hot-spot problems are offered. Guidelines are provided for developing hot-spot tests for arrays when current imbalance is a threat.

Gonzalez, C. C.↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-Throughput Microbial Community Analyses to Establish a Natural Fungal and Bacterial Consortium from Sewage Sludge Enriched with Three Pharmaceutical Compounds

Emerging and unregulated contaminants end up in soils via stabilized/composted sewage sludges, paired with possible risks associated with the development of microbial resistance to antimicrobial agents or an imbalance in the microbial communities. An enrichment experiment was performed, fortifying the sewage sludge with carbamazepine, ketoprofen and diclofenac as model compounds, with the aim to obtain strains with the capability to transform these pollutants. Culturable microorganisms were obtained at the end of the experiment. Among fungi, Cladosporium cladosporioides, Alternaria alternata and Penicillium raistrickii showed remarkable degradation rates. Population shifts in bacterial and fungal communities were also studied during the selective pressure using Illumina MiSeq. These analyses showed a predominance of Ascomycota (Dothideomycetes and Aspergillaceae) and Actinobacteria and Proteobacteria, suggesting the possibility of selecting native microorganisms to carry out bioremediation processes using tailored techniques.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2014

Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 in Bed Rest and Spaceflight

Many nutritional factors influence bone, from the basics of calcium and vitamin D, to factors which influence bone through acid/base balance, including protein, sodium, and more. Fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF23) is a recently identified factor, secreted from osteocytes, which is involved in classic (albeit complex) feedback loops controlling phosphorus homeostasis through both vitamin D and parathyroid hormone (PTH) (1, 2). As osteocytes are gravity sensing cells, it is important to determine if there are changes in FGF23 during spaceflight. In extreme cases, such as chronic kidney disease, FGF23 levels are highly elevated. FGF23 imbalances, secondary to dietary influences, may contribute to skeletal demineralization and kidney stone risk during spaceflight. Presented with an imbalanced dietary phosphorus to calcium ratio, increased secretion of FGF23 will inhibit renal phosphorus reabsorption, resulting in increased excretion and reduced circulating phosphorus. Increased intake and excretion of phosphorus is associated with increased kidney stone risk in both the terrestrial and microgravity environments. Highly processed foods and carbonated beverages are associated with higher phosphorus content. Ideally, the dietary calcium to phosphorus ratio should be at minimum 1:1. Nutritional requirements for spaceflight suggest that this ratio not be less than 0.67 (3), while the International Space Station (ISS) menu provides 1020 mg Ca and 1856 mg P, for a ratio of 0.55 (3). Subjects in NASA's bed rest studies, by design, have consumed intake ratios much closer to 1.0 (4). FGF23 also has an inhibitory influence on PTH secretion and 1(alpha)-hydroxylase, both of which are required for activating vitamin D with the conversion of 25-hydroxyvitamin D to 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D. Decreased 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D will result in decreased intestinal phosphorus absorption, and increased urinary phosphorus excretion (via decreased renal reabsorption). Should a decrease in 1,25- dihydroxyvitamin D be necessary to reduce intestinal phosphorus absorption, calcium absorption will also proportionally be reduced, potentially leading to skeletal demineralization. Demineralization of bone can increase kidney stone risk, a medical issue that could prove detrimental to mission success. Given the interrelationships described above, we sought to determine circulating FGF23 concentrations in spaceflight and ground analog studies to better understand the potential effects of dietary phosphorus on bone and calcium metabolism. We analyzed serum from ISS astronauts participating in studies of bone biochemistry, including the Nutrition SMO and Pro K experiments, and we also evaluated FGF23 during extended-duration bed rest. Serum intact FGF23 levels were determined using an ELISA kit from Kainos laboratories in Japan. While initial evaluation of the data showed no changes over time during flight or bed rest, evaluation continues of FGF23 data in light of dietary factors, PTH, vitamin D status, and other biochemical and endocrine factors.

Bokhari, R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Fibroblast Growth Factor 23 in Long-Duration Spaceflight

Bokhari, R.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Observer-Based Magnetic Bearing Controller Developed for Aerospace Flywheels

A prototype of a versatile, observer-based magnetic bearing controller for aerospace flywheels was successfully developed and demonstrated on a magnetic bearing test rig (see the photograph) and an actual flywheel module. The objective of this development included a fast, yet low risk, control development process, and a robust, high-performance controller for a large variety of flywheels. This required a good system model, an efficient development procedure, and a model-based controller that addressed the key problems associated with flywheel and bearing imbalance, sensor error, and vibration. The model used in this control development and tuning procedure included the flexible rotor dynamics and motor-induced vibrations. Such a model was essential for low-risk scheduling of speed-dependent control parameters and for reliable evaluation of novel control strategies. The successfully tested control prototype utilized an extended Kalman filter to estimate the true rotor principal-axis motion from the raw sensor position feedback. For control refinement, the extended Kalman filter also estimated and eliminated the combined effects of mass-imbalance and sensor runouts from the input data. A key advantage of the design based on the extended Kalman filter is its ability to accurately estimate both the rotor's principal-axis position and gyroscopic rates with the least amount of phase lag. This is important for control parameter scheduling to dampen the gyroscopic motions. Because of large uncertainties in the magnetic bearing and imbalance characteristics, this state-estimation scheme alone is insufficient for containing the rotor motion within the desired 1-mil excursion radius. A nonlinear gain adjustment based on an estimation of the principal-axis orbit size was needed to provide a coarse (nonoptimal), but robust, control of the orbit growth. Control current minimization was achieved with a (steepest gradient) search of synchronous errors in the principal-axis position input data. Actual flywheel tests of this observer-based controller (developed entirely in-house) at the NASA Glenn Research Center showed that the model correctly predicted the rotor orbit growth as a function of rotational speed, and it demonstrated the capability of gain adjustments to arrest this growth. Data from these tests on an actual flywheel module spun to 26,000 rpm proved that the controller was able to contain the shaft motion to within much less than 0.5 mils of radial excursion with axis currents less than 300 mA in root-mean-square estimate. The test speed range was limited because of thermal expansion concerns for this particular flywheel unit, not because of any deficiency in the controller. Simulations for this unit indicated that the controller should be robust up to its top operating speed of 60,000 rpm. Aside from these important achievements, and most significantly, it took less than 1 week to adapt this controller from the simple test rig to the actual flywheel and to demonstrate full five-axis levitation and control. This demonstration showed that both the controller and the model-based development and tuning framework are easily adaptable to a wide range of rotors and bearing configurations and, hence, are capable of reducing design risks and costs for many future flywheel technology developments.

Le, Dzu K.↗

DOE OSTI2021

Commercial PV Inverter IEEE 1547.1 Ride-Through Assessments Using an Automated PHIL Test Platform

As more countries seek solutions to their de-carbonization targets using renewable energy (RE) technologies, interconnection standards and national grid codes for distributed energy resources (DER) are being updated to support higher penetrations of RE and improve grid stability. Common grid-code revisions mandate DER devices, such as solar inverters and energy storage systems, ride-through (RT) voltage and frequency disturbances. This is necessary because as the percentage of generation from DER increases, there is a greater risk power system faults will cause many or all DER to trip, triggering a substantial load-generation imbalance and possible cascading blackout. This paper demonstrates for the first time a methodology to verify commercial DER devices are compliant to new voltage, frequency, and rate of change of frequency (ROCOF) RT requirements established in IEEE Std. 1547-2018. The methodology incorporates a software automation tool, called the SunSpec System Validation Platform (SVP), in combination with a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) system to execute the IEEE Std. 1547.1-2020 RT test protocols. In this paper, the approach is validated with two commercial photovoltaic inverters, the test results are analyzed for compliance, and improvements to the test procedure are suggested.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2012

Review of Human Cognitive Performance in Spaceflight

Human space exploration is inherently hazardous, particularly for lon g duration (LD) missions (22 days or longer). Maintenance of cognitive functioning is essential, but flight environments pose numerous pote ntial risks to the brain and cognitive performance (eg, radiation, to xins, chronic stress, sleep deprivation, hypercarbia, fluid shifts, h ormone imbalances, and injury). There have been persistent anecdotal reports of cognitive deficits during missions, but an up?-to-date rev iew of the evidence for such changes has remained unavailable. Method s: We identified and reviewed English language publications found via electronic searches in PubMed, PsycInfo, Inspec, the NASA Technical Report Server, and the Defense Technical Information Center, plus rec ursive searches of publication bibliographies. Search terms included the word cognition, cognitive, or performance along with spaceflight, flight, mission, or closely related terms. Results: Inter?-study variability precluded meta?-analysis. Some 32 published studies involving cognitive assessment during spaceflight were identified, involving a total of 110 participants (mean: 3.4 participants per study). The lo ngest?-duration study spanned 438 days, with six additional studies i nvolving flight durations of 90 days, and 11 more studies involved fl ight durations exceeding 21 days. The available evidence failed to st rongly support or refute the existence of cognitive deficits in LD sp aceflight, in part due to inadequate power or control conditions. Evi dence of increased variability in cognitive performance during spacef light, both within and between individuals, was common. Discussion: T hese results represent a negative finding based on small numbers of s ubjects for any given cognitive function. The increased variability within and (particularly) between individuals highlights the potential danger of generalizing from case studies. A mismatch therefore remain s between anecdotal reports describing generalized cognitive slowing, attention and memory problems during missions and the experimental e vidence supporting such deficits. Since a major justification for man ned spaceflight rests with the cognitive flexibility of humans, addit ional studies and further analysis of existing operational data appea rs warranted.

Strangman, Gary↗