Do atmospheric rivers trigger tabular iceberg calving?
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Rendfrey, Tristan (ORCID:0000000259423097)↗
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Impact of Iceberg Calving on the Retreat of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica Over the Next Century With Different Calving Laws and Ocean Thermal Forcing
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Hongju Yu↗
Sea-level response to ice sheet evolution: An ocean perspective
The ocean's influence upon and response to Antarctic ice sheet changes is considered in relation to sea level rise over recent and future decades. Assuming present day ice fronts are in approximate equilibrium, a preliminary budget for the ice sheet is estimated from accumulation vs. iceberg calving and the basal melting that occurs beneath floating ice shelves. Iceberg calving is derived from the volume of large bergs identified and tracked by the Navy/NOAA Joint Ice Center and from shipboard observations. Basal melting exceeds 600 cu km/yr and is concentrated near the ice fronts and ice shelf grounding lines. An apparent negative mass balance for the Antarctic ice sheet may result from an anomalous calving rate during the past decade, but there are large uncertainties associated with all components of the ice budget. The results from general circulation models are noted in the context of projected precipitation increases and ocean temperature changes on and near the continent. An ocean research program that could help refine budget estimates is consistent with goals of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Initiative.
Jacobs, Stanley S.↗
The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat
Abstract. Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, has retreated and accelerated through the 21st century, raising concerns that it could be a significant contributor to future sea-level rise. We use a data-constrained ensemble of three-dimensional higher-order ice sheet model simulations to estimate the likely range of sea-level rise from the continued retreat of Humboldt Glacier. We first solve for basal traction using observed ice thickness, bed topography, and ice surface velocity from the year 2007 in a PDE-constrained (partial differential equation) optimization. Next, we impose calving rates to match mean observed retreat rates from winter 2007–2008 to winter 2017–2018 in a transient calibration of the exponent in the power-law basal friction relationship. We find that power-law exponents in the range of 1/7–1/5 – rather than the commonly used 1/3–1 – are necessary to reproduce the observed speedup over this period. We then tune an iceberg calving parameterization based on the von Mises stress yield criterion in another transient-calibration step to approximate both observed ice velocities and terminus position in 2017–2018. Finally, we use the range of basal friction relationship exponents and calving parameter values to generate the ensemble of model simulations from 2007–2100 under three climate forcing scenarios from CMIP5 (two RCP8.5 forcings, Representative Concentration Pathway) and CMIP6 (one SSP5-8.5 forcing, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway). Our simulations predict 5.2–8.7 mm of sea-level rise from Humboldt Glacier, significantly higher than a previous estimate (∼ 3.5 mm) and equivalent to a substantial fraction of the 40–140 mm predicted by ISMIP6 from the whole Greenland Ice Sheet. Our larger future sea-level rise prediction results from the transient calibration of our basal friction law to match the observed speedup, which requires a semi-plastic bed rheology. In many simulations, our model predicts the growth of a sizable ice shelf in the middle of the 21st century. Thus, atmospheric warming could lead to more retreat than predicted here if increased surface melt promotes hydrofracture of the ice shelf. Our data-constrained simulations of Humboldt Glacier underscore the sensitivity of model predictions of Greenland outlet glacier response to warming to choices of basal shear stress and iceberg calving parameterizations. Further, transient calibration of these parameterizations, which has not typically been performed, is necessary to reproduce observed behavior. Current estimates of future sea-level rise from the Greenland Ice Sheet could, therefore, contain significant biases.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Recent acceleration of Thwaites Glacier
The first velocity measurements for Thwaites Glacier were made by R. J. Allen in 1977. He compared features of Thwaites Glacier and Iceberg Tongue on aerial photography from 1947 and 1967 with 1972 Landsat images, and measured average annual displacements of 3.7 and 2.3 km/a. Using his photogrammetric experience and taking into consideration the lack of definable features and the poor control in the area, he estimated an average velocity of 2.0 to 2.9 km/a to be more accurate. In 1985, Lindstrom and Tyler also made velocity estimates for Thwaites Glacier. Using Landsat imagery from 1972 and 1983, their estimates of the velocities of 33 points ranged from 2.99 to 4.02 km/a, with an average of 3.6 km/a. The accuracy of their estimates is uncertain, however, because in the absence of fixed control points, they assumed that the velocities of icebergs in the fast ice were uniform. Using additional Landsat imagery in 1984 and 1990, accurate coregistration with the 1972 image was achieved based on fixed rock points. For the period 1972 to 1984, 25 points on the glacier surface ranged in average velocity from 2.47 to 2.76 km/a, with an overall average velocity of 2.62 +/- 0.02 km/a. For the period 1984 to 1990, 101 points ranged in velocity from 2.54 to 3.15 km/a, with an overall average of 2.84 km/a. During both time periods, the velocity pattern showed the same spatial relationship for three longitudinal paths. The 8-percent acceleration in a decade is significant. This recent acceleration may be associated with changes observed in this region since 1986. Fast ice melted and several icebergs calved from the base of the Iceberg Tongue and the terminus of Thwaites Glacier. However, as early as 1972, the Iceberg Tongue had very little contact with the glacier.
Ferrigno, J. G.↗
Beyond the Stokes approximation: shallow visco-elastic ice-sheet models
Abstract The hypothesis that ice-sheet evolution is only controlled by the long-term non-Newtonian viscous behavior of ice has been challenged by observations indicating that effects like brittle failure, stick-slip sliding, tides and wave action may affect ice-sheet evolution on sub-daily timescales. Over these timescales, the quasi-static-creep approximation is no longer appropriate and elastic effects become important. Simulating elastic effects in ice-sheet models over relevant timescales, however, remains challenging. Here, we show that by including a visco-elastic rheology and reintroducing the oft neglected acceleration term back into the ice-sheet stress balance, we can create a visco-elastic system where the velocity is locally determined and information propagates at the elastic wave speed. Crucially, the elastic wave speed can be treated like an adjustable parameter and set to any value to reproduce a range of phenomena, provided the wave speed is large compared to the viscous velocity. We illustrate the system using three examples. The first two examples demonstrate that the system converges to the steady-state viscous and elastic limits. The third example examines ice-shelf rifting and iceberg calving. This final example hints at the utility of the visco-elastic formulation in treating both long-term evolution and short-term environmental effects.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Simulating ice-shelf extent using damage mechanics
Abstract Inaccurate representations of iceberg calving from ice shelves are a large source of uncertainty in mass-loss projections from the Antarctic ice sheet. Here, we address this limitation by implementing and testing a continuum damage-mechanics model in a continental scale ice-sheet model. The damage-mechanics formulation, based on a linear stability analysis and subsequent long-wavelength approximation of crevasses that evolve in a viscous medium, links damage evolution to climate forcing and the large-scale stresses within an ice shelf. We incorporate this model into the BISICLES ice-sheet model and test it by applying it to idealized (1) ice tongues, for which we present analytical solutions and (2) buttressed ice-shelf geometries. Our simulations show that the model reproduces the large disparity in lengths of ice shelves with geometries and melt rates broadly similar to those of four Antarctic ice shelves: Erebus Glacier Tongue (length ~ 13 km), the unembayed portion of Drygalski Ice Tongue (~ 65 km), the Amery Ice Shelf (~ 350 km) and the Ross Ice Shelf (~ 500 km). These results demonstrate that our simple continuum model holds promise for constraining realistic ice-shelf extents in large-scale ice-sheet models in a computationally tractable manner.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
The DOE E3SM v1.2 Cryosphere Configuration: Description and Simulated Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melting
Abstract The processes responsible for freshwater flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), ice‐shelf basal melting and iceberg calving, are generally poorly represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we document the cryosphere configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1.2. This includes simulating Antarctic ice‐shelf basal melting, which has been implemented through simulating the ocean circulation within static Antarctic ice‐shelf cavities, allowing for the ability to calculate ice‐shelf basal melt rates from the associated heat and freshwater fluxes. In addition, we added the capability to prescribe forcing from iceberg melt, allowing for realistic representation of the other dominant mass loss process from the AIS. In standard resolution simulations (using a noneddying ocean) under preindustrial climate forcing, we find high sensitivity of modeled ocean/ice shelf interactions to the ocean state, which can result in a transition to a high basal melt regime under the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), presenting a significant challenge to representing the ocean/ice shelf system in a coupled ESM. We show that inclusion of a spatially dependent parameterization of eddy‐induced transport reduces biases in water mass properties on the Antarctic continental shelf. With these improvements, E3SM produces realistic ice‐shelf basal melt rates across the continent that are generally within the range inferred from observations. The accurate representation of ice‐shelf basal melting within a coupled ESM is an important step toward reducing uncertainties in projections of the Antarctic response to climate change and Antarctica's contribution to global sea‐level rise.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Episodes of Early Pleistocene West Antarctic Ice Sheet Retreat Recorded by Iceberg Alley Sediments
Abstract Ice loss in the Southern Hemisphere has been greatest over the past 30 years in West Antarctica. The high sensitivity of this region to climate change has motivated geologists to examine marine sedimentary records for evidence of past episodes of West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) instability. Sediments accumulating in the Scotia Sea are useful to examine for this purpose because they receive iceberg‐rafted debris (IBRD) sourced from the Pacific‐ and Atlantic‐facing sectors of West Antarctica. Here we report on the sedimentology and provenance of the oldest of three cm‐scale coarse‐grained layers recovered from this sea at International Ocean Discovery Program Site U1538. These layers are preserved in opal‐rich sediments deposited ∼1.2 Ma during a relatively warm regional climate. Our microCT‐based analysis of the layer's in‐situ fabric confirms its ice‐rafted origin. We further infer that it is the product of an intense but short‐lived episode of IBRD deposition. Based on the petrography of its sand fraction and the Phanerozoic 40 Ar/ 39 Ar ages of hornblende and mica it contains, we conclude that the IBRD it contains was likely sourced from the Weddell Sea and/or Amundsen Sea embayment(s) of West Antarctica. We attribute the high concentrations of IBRD in these layers to “dirty” icebergs calved from the WAIS following its retreat inland from its modern grounding line. These layers also sit at the top of a ∼366‐m thick Pliocene and early Pleistocene sequence that is much more dropstone‐rich than its overlying sediments. We speculate this fact may reflect that WAIS mass‐balance was highly dynamic during the ∼41‐kyr (inter)glacial world.
Bailey, Ian↗
Ice-sheet dynamics by satellite laser altimetry
Glaciological applications of a satellite laser altimeter system with a range precision of approximately 10 cm and a footprint diameter of 70 m are discussed. Available data on ice-sheet dynamics are reviewed, and the measurement errors associated with the laser altimeter are examined. It is shown that information collected with the system could make it possible to detect changes in average elevation (i.e., in average ice thickness) of less than 15 cm for areas of hundreds of sq km to a few thousand sq km. Other possible applications of the system are briefly considered, including the mapping of the positions of ice-sheet margins, the mapping of the junction between a grounded ice sheet and a floating ice shelf, and the estimation of iceberg calving rates.
Zwally, H. J.↗
Motion of Major Ice Shelf Fronts in Antarctica from Slant Range Analysis of Radar Altimeter Data, 1978 - 1998
Slant range analysis of radar altimeter data from the Seasat, Geosat, ERS-1 and ERS-2 databases are used to determine barrier location at particular times, and estimate barrier motion (km/yr) for major Antarctic ice shelves. The barrier locations, which are the seaward edges or fronts of floating ice shelves, advance with time as the ice flows from the grounded ice sheets and retreat whenever icebergs calve from the fronts. The analysis covers various multiyear intervals from 1978 to 1998, supplemented by barrier location maps produced elsewhere for 1977 and 1986. Barrier motion is estimated as the ratio between mean annual ice shelf area change for a particular interval, and the length of the discharge periphery. This value is positive if the barrier location progresses seaward, or negative if the barrier location regresses (break-back). Either positive or negative values are lower limit estimates because the method does not detect relatively small area changes due to calving or surge events. The findings are discussed in the context of the three ice shelves that lie in large embayments (the Filchner-Ronne, Amery, and Ross), and marginal ice shelves characterized by relatively short distances between main segments of grounding line and barrier (those in the Queen Maud Land sector between 10.1 deg. W and 32.5 deg. E, and the West and Shackleton ice shelves). All the ice shelves included in the study account for approximately three-fourths of the total ice shelf area of Antarctica, and discharge approximately two-thirds of the total grounded ice area.
Zwally, H. J.↗
Ice-shelf Dynamics Near the Front of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Revealed by SAR Interferometry
Fifteen synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images of the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, obtained by the European Space Agency (ESA)'s Earth Remote Sensing satellites (ERS) 1 & 2 are used to study ice-shelf dynamics near two ends of the iceberg-calving front.
Ice-shelf Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf FRIS SAR Interf↗
Ice-shelf Dynamics Near the Front of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Revealed by SAR Interferometry: Model/Interferogram Comparison
We compare Earth Remote Sensing (ERS) satellite synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) interferograms with artificial interferograms constructed using output of a finite-element ice-shelf flow model to study the dynamics of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) near Hemmen Ice Rise (HIR) where the iceberg-calving front itersects Berkener Island (BI).
Ice-shelf Filchner-Ronne Antarctica SAR Interferom↗
Comparison of Ice-shelf Creep Flow Simulations with Ice-front Motion of Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica, Detected by SAR Interferometry
Comparison between numerical model ice-shelf flow simulations and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) interferograms is used to study the dynamics at the Hemmen Ice Rise (HIR) and Lassiter Coast (LC) corners of the iceberg-calving front of the Filchner-Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS).
ice-shelf ice-front Filchner-Ronne ice shelf Antac↗
Rapidly Connecting You to the World: Improving NASA’s Worldview to Enhance Discovery and Access to Near Real-Time Imagery
The world around us is constantly in motion. Storms swirl, fires rage, volcanoes erupt and icebergs calve. NASA’s fleet of Earth Observing System (EOS) satellites are there to capture this. Within hours of satellite overpass, NASA’s Worldview (https://worldview.earthdata.nasa.gov) delivers this global, near-real time imagery through an interactive web map application. Provided through NASA’s Land Atmosphere Near real-time Capability for EOS (LANCE) (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/lance) via NASA’s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS) (https://earthdata.nasa.gov/gibs), the near real-time satellite imagery provides a launching point to discover where the latest wildfires, severe storms, volcanic eruptions, and calving ice shelves are happening. This poster will explore the newest near real-time satellite imagery and soon-to-be available imagery in Worldview, including imagery from geostationary satellites - GOES-East/West and Himawari-8. The poster will cover recent and future improvements to Worldview aimed to enhance the discovery and interaction with near real-time imagery and show how it is used by people from researchers, to meteorologists to the science-minded public around the world.
Wong, Min Minnie↗
Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance
Mass balance equation for glaciers; areal distribution and ice volumes; estimates of actual mass balance; loss by calving of icebergs; hydrological budget for Greenland; and temporal variations of Greenland mass balance are examined.
Reeh, N.↗
Potential Climatic Effects on the Greenland Ice Sheet
The Greenland Ice Sheet covers an area of 1,720,000 sq. km and contains approximately 2,600,000 cu km of ice. Most of the ice sheet receives an excess of snow accumulation over the amount of ice lost to wind, meltwater run-off or other ablative processes. The majority of mass loss occurs at the margin of the ice sheet as either surface melt, which flows into the sea or calving of icebergs from the tongues of outlet glaciers. Many estimates of these processes were published. An average of five published estimates is summarized. If these estimates are correct, then the Greenland Ice Sheet is in approximate equilibrium and contributes 490 cu km/a of fresh water to the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans. Climate effects, ice sheet flow, and application of remote sensing to tracking of the ice sheet are discussed.
Bindschadler, R. A.↗
Process involved in the propagation of rifts across the Ronne Ice Shelf, near the region of Hemmen Ice Rise
We use radar interferometric images collected by ERS-1 and Radarsat-1 to observe the rupture tip of rifts along Hemmen Ice Rise on the Ronne Ice Shelf, Antarctica. Interferograms generated in 1992 and 1997 allow us to observe the deformation of ice accumulated over respectively 9 and24 days. The results are an important step towards developing a better model of ice-shelf calving mechanism.
Hemmen Ice Rise Ronne Ice Shelf Antarctica calving↗