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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2026

Towards an improved understanding of the Antarctic coastal zone and its contribution to future global sea level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the coming centuries. The Antarctic Ice Sheet remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Insufficient knowledge of bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, but is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography datasets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation dataset of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and enhancing predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗
NASA NTRS2026

Petermann Glacier on the Brink: Progress, Challenges and Insights

Petermann Glacier, the largest marine-terminating glacier in northern Greenland based on catchment area and ice discharge, plays a key role in regulating ice discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet into the Arctic Ocean. With an upstream catchment connected to the ice sheet interior via a deep subglacial canyon, its future stability has major implications for sea level rise. In this review, we synthesize recent advances in understanding Petermann’s dynamics across three critical interfaces: the ice–ocean, ice–atmosphere, and ice–bed boundaries. At the surface, observations show that reanalysis products underestimate air temperatures and melt, while regional climate models diverge significantly in their estimates of surface mass balance, underscoring the need for improved in situ data and models. At the ocean boundary, enhanced basal melting driven by both subglacial runoff and Atlantic water intrusions is identified as the dominant driver of recent mass loss of Petermann Glacier, with continued warming posing a serious threat to the stability of the floating tongue. At the bed, new geophysical synthesis reveals complex geology, likely spatial variability in geothermal heat flux, and the influence of the megacanyon on seasonal hydrology and velocity fluctuations. Petermann’s mass balance has been negative in recent decades without corresponding flow acceleration. However, the glacier has undergone significant calving events, and the current rifting that began in September 2025 highlights its vulnerability. This upcoming calving event underscores the timeliness of this review, as it will put Petermann Glacier’s terminus at its most retreated position since records began in 1923. The anticipated retreat of the ice tongue also reduces buttressing and brings the terminus closer to the grounding zone, and modeling studies suggest that calving within 12 km of the grounding zone could potentially trigger dynamic retreat, accelerating ice discharge, and a doubling of flow speeds. We conclude that improved observations, sustained monitoring of oceanographic and atmospheric properties, and high-resolution modeling are critical to constraining projections of Petermann Glacier’s future and its role in the stability of the Greenland Ice Sheet.

Dominik Fahrner↗
NASA NTRS2026

Towards an Improved Understanding of the Antarctic Coastal Zone and Its Contribution to Future Global Sea Level

Understanding the coastal zone of the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), where it interacts with the Southern Ocean and warmer air masses, is crucial for predicting Antarctica's influence on the global climate and sea level. This region has multiple tipping mechanisms that could trigger large, rapid, and potentially irreversible changes in the AIS, the Southern Ocean and their global connections in the coming centuries. The AIS remains the largest source of uncertainty in future sea-level projections. Bed topography beneath the ice shelves and the coastal ice sheet is not yet well documented, and is a major source of this uncertainty. This review assesses current knowledge of the coastal zone and highlights methods to investigate it, including aerogeophysical surveys, ground- and ship-based measurements, satellite observations, and computer modeling. An ensemble analysis of published bed topography data sets identifies significant data gaps and their regional distribution, framed in the context of current ice-sheet behavior and potential instability. We propose scientific priorities and guidelines for future aerogeophysical surveys, advocating for a comprehensive, coordinated international effort to build a next-generation data set of Antarctic bed properties. Such an initiative would significantly advance understanding of the role of coastal processes in ice-sheet dynamics, reducing uncertainties in sea-level rise projections and improving predictions of future ocean and climate changes.

Kenichi Matsuoka↗
DOE OSTI2025

A rigorous framework for an improved Messinger/Myers model of ice accretion under conditions of variable property and unsteady aircraft icing

We analyse the Messinger/Myers model by critically evaluating simplifying assumptions through a rigorous formulation of the rime ice accretion process. We explore the effects of both constant and variable ice density and thermal conductivity, along with the effects of sublimation from the ice surface. The effects of key factors such as droplet impact rate, ambient temperature relative to the freezing temperature and the temperature difference between the ambient air and the airfoil surface are examined. Under these varying conditions, the present rigorous formulation is used to assess the significance of unsteady effects, variable ice properties and sublimation. We observe that the Myers model performs remarkably well in certain icing situations and analyse the reasons for this strong performance. We also show that partially relaxing the model’s assumptions can lead to poorer performance. The Myers model can lead to overprediction of ice surface temperature and correspondingly underprediction of transition time under conditions of relatively weak sublimation and surface cooling. A modified Myers model is presented, which can be used to recover near-perfect results under widely varying icing conditions of relevance. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Heat and mass transfer in frost and ice’.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗
NASA NTRS1991

Preparation of the Ice Certification of the Dornier 328 Regional Airliner By Numerical Simulation and By Ground Test

The Dornier 328, a new regional airliner, is to be qualified to FAR25/JAR25 requirements for operation into known icing conditions. All lifting surfaces are pneumatically deiced. Impingement limits were determined using a validated computational fluid dynamic (CFD) code. Wind tunnel tests with a model of the whole aircraft and the isolated empennage equipped with artificial ice shapes showed a degradation of handling characteristics due to ice accretion. Extensive two and three dimensional CFD calculations evaluated ice accretion at the deflection elevator horn. Icing tunnel tests were performed with a model of the horizontal tail with icing similitude fulfilled. The Dornier Do328 powerplant air induction system has successfully completed a program of icing tests in support of aircraft certification for operation into known icing conditions. Potential flight icing conditions were extensively analyzed using a CFD potential flow code and 3-D particle tracking routine to identify critical flight icing conditions. The tunnel test program verified the analytically predicted critical ice accretion surfaces of the air induction system, the adequacy of the ice protection provisions and demonstrated compliance with the applicable (JAR25) regulatory material.

D Welte↗
NASA NTRS2020

An Overview of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Simulated Cloud Ice, Radiation Fields, Surface Wind Stress, Sea Surface Temperatures and Precipitation over Tropical and Subtropical Oceans

The potential links between ice water path (IWP), radiation, circulation, sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans resulting from the falling ice radiative effects (FIREs) are examined from present day model outputs of CMIP5 and CMIP6. The latter is divided into two subsets with (SON6) and without FIREs (NOS6) as more models with FIREs are included in CMIP6 than in CMIP5. Improvement in floating cloud ice (~20 g m-2) is noticeable over convective regions in CMIP6 relative to CMIP5. The inclusion of FIREs in SON6 subset may contribute to reduce biases of overestimated outgoing longwave radiation and downward surface shortwave and overestimated reflected shortwave at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) by magnitudes of 4?8 W m-2 over convective regions against CERES, compared to NOS6 subset. The reduced biases in radiative fluxes in convective regions stabilize the atmosphere and lead to circulation, SST, cloud and precipitation changes over the trade-wind regions, as seen from improved radiative fluxes (4?15 W m-2), surface wind stress biases, SST (0.2?0.8 K) and precipitation (1 mm day-1) biases. The significant improvement from NOS6 to SON6 leads to improved multi-model means for CMIP6 relative to CMIP5 for radiation fields over the trade wind regions but the degradation over convective zones is attributed to NOS6 subset. The results suggest that other sources of uncertainty and deficiencies in climate models may play significant roles for reducing discrepancies although FIREs, via radiation-circulation coupling, may be one of the factors that help to reduce regional biases.

Jui-Lin F Li↗
NASA NTRS2026

Ice in Convective Storm Environments: Assessing Impacts of Microphysics on Simulated Reflectivities

Satellite radar retrievals of clouds and precipitation rely on assumptions about the microphysical properties of hydrometeors such as particle size distributions (PSDs) and massdimensional relationships, which have been shown to vary in distinct environments. A deeper understanding of linkages between mass-dimensional relationships, ice crystal shape, and radar reflectivities across cloud and precipitation regimes is necessary for developing new retrievals for upcoming satellite radar missions, including the INvestigation of Convective UpdraftS (INCUS), as well as future missions that will feature space-borne radars observing clouds, convection, and precipitation. This study investigates ice microphysical characteristics through aircraft in-situ and remote sensing observations from two convective events during the Mid-latitude Continental Convective Clouds Experiment (MC3E) in the Southern Great Plains, and tests implications for ice particle habit in forward modeled radar observations. During MC3E, the Ka/Ku- band High Altitude Imaging Wind and Rain Airborne Profiler (HIWRAP) was onboard the NASA ER-2 aircraft, while in-situ measurements were taken onboard the University of North Dakota Citation. In-situ PSDs and particle shape information from optical array probe data are used to forward model radar reflectivities from particle scattering databases and are compared against HIWRAP reflectivities. Various particle combinations can be used to find agreement with HIWRAP observations, and the forward modeled reflectivities were sensitive to particle type. Varying the riming on the aggregate and graupel particles resulted in larger than 10 dB differences in reflectivities. The in-situ and radar observations imply the occurrence of aggregation, size sorting and lofting particles.

Julia A. Shates↗
NASA NTRS2026

Changes in Arctic and Antarctic Sea-Ice Properties and Processes

Although sea ice covers ~9% of the world’s oceans, its presence, and absence, vastly alter the energetic balance of Earth’s climate. Because of geographic differences, Arctic and Antarctic sea ice have different dominant properties and processes, which produce different responses to natural variability and anthropogenic change. In this Review, we survey changes in sea-ice properties and processes of the Arctic and Antarctic environments. In the Arctic, the melt season has lengthened by ~7.4 days decade −1 (1979-2024). There has been a corresponding decrease in winter sea-ice thickness (1.6 m mean total over 1980-2023), summer surface albedo (0.03 decade −1 over 1979-2020), and spring snow depth (2.5 cm decade −1 over 1954-2024). In comparison, corresponding changes in the Antarctic are small overall due to contrasting regional and temporal trends. From a dynamic perspective, sea-ice motion in both hemispheres has increased, with 0.63 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Arctic (1978-2024) and 0.69 cm s −1 decade −1 in the Antarctic (1982-2024), whereas trends in polynya occurrence differ by region. Future research should prioritize sea-ice observations that can inform how the climate system responds to natural variability and anthropogenic change, be standardized to increase uptake by the broader scientific community, and target process-oriented interactions to support model development.

Melinda A Webster↗
DOE OSTI2023

Self‐Propelling Macroscale Sheets Powered by Enzyme Pumps

Nanoscale enzymes anchored to surfaces act as chemical pumps by converting chemical energy released from enzymatic reactions into spontaneous fluid flow that propels entrained nano‐ and microparticles. Enzymatic pumps are biocompatible, highly selective, and display unique substrate specificity. Utilizing these pumps to trigger self‐propelled motion on the macroscale has, however, constituted a significant challenge and thus prevented their adaptation in macroscopic fluidic devices and soft robotics. Using experiments and simulations, we herein show that enzymatic pumps can drive centimeter‐scale polymer sheets along directed linear paths and rotational trajectories. In these studies, the sheets are confined to the air/water interface. With the addition of appropriate substrate, the asymmetric enzymatic coating on the sheets induces chemically driven, buoyancy flows that controllably propel the sheet's motion on the air/water interface. The directionality and speed of the motion can be tailored by changing the pattern of the enzymatic coating, type of enzyme, and nature and concentration of the substrate. This work highlights the utility of biocompatible enzymes for generating motion in macroscale fluidic devices and robotics and indicates their potential utility for in vivo applications.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2004

Lunar and Planetary Science XXXV: Icy Worlds: Moving and Grooving

Reports from the conference session entitled Icy Worlds: Moving and Grooving, include:Mass Anomalies on Ganymede; Europan Chaos and Lenticulae: A Synthesis of Size, Spacing, and Areal Density Analyses; Thermal and Topographic Tests of Europa Chaos Formation Models; Flexure of Europa s Lithosphere Due to Ridge-Loading; Ridges on Europa: Origin by Incremental Ice-Wedging ; Convergent Boundaries on Europa: a Numerical Approach to Euler Pole Analysis and Its' Implications for Plate Reconstruction; Numerical Simulations of Subsolidus Convection in the Ice Shell of Europa: Implications for the Thermal Evolution and Present State; Effects of Plasticity on Convection in an Ice Shell: Implications for Europa; Non-Newtonian Convection and Compositional Buoyancy: Advances in Modeling Convection and Dome Formation on Europa; Convective Instability in Ice I: Application to Callisto and Ganymede; Crater Size Distributions on Callisto: A Galileo SSI Summary; Neutron Diffraction Studies of Planetary Ices; and H2O2 Synthesis Induced by Irradiation of H2O with Energetic H+ and Ar+ Ions at Various Temperatures.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2018

Tracing Phase Transformation and Lattice Evolution in a TRIP Sheet Steel under High-Temperature Annealing by Real-Time In Situ Neutron Diffraction

Real-time in situ neutron diffraction was used to characterize the crystal structure evolution in a transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) sheet steel during annealing up to 1000 °C and then cooling to 60 °C. Based on the results of full-pattern Rietveld refinement, critical temperature regions were determined in which the transformations of retained austenite to ferrite and ferrite to high-temperature austenite during heating and the transformation of austenite to ferrite during cooling occurred, respectively. The phase-specific lattice variation with temperature was further analyzed to comprehensively understand the role of carbon diffusion in accordance with phase transformation, which also shed light on the determination of internal stress in retained austenite. These results prove the technique of real-time in situ neutron diffraction as a powerful tool for heat treatment design of novel metallic materials.

Yu, Dunji [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189467851)↗
NASA NTRS2025

ISS Radiator Face Sheet Anomaly Investigation and Return to Function

Maintaining sufficient heat rejection on the International Space Station (ISS) is critical to the function of the Low-Earth Orbit station. The External Active Thermal Control System (EATCS) rejects the excess heat generated by the US On-Orbit Segment (USOS) modules. The system uses single-phase liquid ammonia to collect the heat and reject it to six radiators (three on the Starboard side, three on the Port side). Each radiator is made up of eight panels. In September 2008, imagery of the Starboard radiators was conducted and showed one of the panels’ face sheets had peeled up from the internal honeycomb core structure. Out of an abundance of caution, the radiator was isolated from the rest of the EATCS and the ammonia was vented to space. Since the radiator was vented, periodic imagery of all radiator panels was taken to monitor any changes in the face sheet and inspect for other radiator anomalies. In January 2025, after years of trending and inspections, the radiator was reintegrated into the system to increase heat rejection capabilities. This paper will document the multi-year investigation that took place to determine root cause and mitigations implemented to reduce risk to the system. A summary of the data since the investigation will show rationale for reintegrating the radiator even with the damaged panel. The goal of the paper is to document the investigation for historical purposes and provide future programs with findings discovered during the investigation.

Aaron Rodriguez↗
NASA NTRS2026

ISS Radiator Face Sheet Anomaly Investigation and Return to Function

Maintaining sufficient heat rejection on the International Space Station (ISS) is critical to the function of the Low-Earth Orbit station. The External Active Thermal Control System (EATCS) rejects the excess heat generated by the US On-Orbit Segment (USOS) modules. The system uses single-phase liquid ammonia to collect the heat and reject it to six radiators (three on the Starboard side, three on the Port side). Each radiator is made up of eight panels. In September 2008, imagery of the Starboard radiators was conducted and showed one of the panels’ face sheets had peeled up from the internal honeycomb core structure. Out of an abundance of caution, the radiator was isolated from the rest of the EATCS and the ammonia was vented to space. Since the radiator was vented, periodic imagery of all radiator panels was taken to monitor any changes in the face sheet and inspect for other radiator anomalies. In January 2025, after years of trending and inspections, the radiator was reintegrated into the system to increase heat rejection capabilities. This paper will document the multi-year investigation that took place to determine root cause and mitigations implemented to reduce risk to the system. A summary of the data since the investigation will show rationale for reintegrating the radiator even with the damaged panel. The goal of the paper is to document the investigation for historical purposes and provide future programs with findings discovered during the investigation.

Aaron Rodriguez↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improved Protein Semi-Synthesis Enables Biophysical Studies of Thioamide Destabilization of β-Sheet Interactions

Abstract Thioamides are natural post-translational modifications of the peptide backbone and can be introduced synthetically to probe protein folding or functionalize peptides for translational applications. In this work, we demonstrate that thioamide-containing peptides with C-terminal thioesters can be efficiently generated using Knorr pyrazole activation and used in subsequent native chemical ligation reactions to generate thioamide-containing proteins. We compare this method to acyl azide activation and find that both routes provide similar yields. We also investigate ultrasound-mediated desulfurization of the ligation site cysteine for potential advantages over chemical radical initiators. Scaling up our syntheses allows us to study thioamide perturbations to the β-sheet region of the B1 domain of protein G (GB1) as well as β-strand interactions in amyloid fibrils of the Parkinson’s disease protein α-synuclein. In both contexts, we observe dramatic destabilization of the β-sheet networks, manifested in decreased GB1 thermal stability and altered folding and slowed aggregation of α-synuclein. These findings illustrate the impact that a single atom substitution can have on cooperative hydrogen-bonding networks and prompt future study of both systems.

Yanagawa, Evan S. K. [University of Pennsylvania ,↗