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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Active Learning for Scanning Probe Microscopy: From Gaussian Processes to Hypothesis Learning

Recent progress in machine learning methods and the emerging availability of programmable interfaces for scanning probe microscopes (SPMs) have propelled automated and autonomous microscopies to the forefront of attention of the scientific community. However, enabling automated microscopy requires the development of task-specific machine learning methods, understanding the interplay between physics discovery and machine learning, and fully defined discovery workflows. This, in turn, requires balancing the physical intuition and prior knowledge of the domain scientist with rewards that define experimental goals and machine learning algorithms that can translate these to specific experimental protocols. Here, we discuss the basic principles of Bayesian active learning and illustrate its applications for SPM. We progress from the Gaussian process as a simple data-driven method and Bayesian inference for physical models as an extension of physics-based functional fits to more complex deep kernel learning methods, structured Gaussian processes, and hypothesis learning. These frameworks allow for the use of prior data, the discovery of specific functionalities as encoded in spectral data, and exploration of physical laws manifesting during the experiment. Here, the discussed framework can be universally applied to all techniques combining imaging and spectroscopy, SPM methods, nanoindentation, electron microscopy and spectroscopy, and chemical imaging methods and can be particularly impactful for destructive or irreversible measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis Learning in Automated Experiment: Application to Combinatorial Materials Libraries

Machine learning is rapidly becoming an integral part of experimental physical discovery via automated and high-throughput synthesis, and active experiments in scattering and electron/probe microscopy. This, in turn, necessitates the development of active learning methods capable of exploring relevant parameter spaces with the smallest number of steps. In this work, an active learning approach based on conavigation of the hypothesis and experimental spaces is introduced. This is realized by combining the structured Gaussian processes containing probabilistic models of the possible system's behaviors (hypotheses) with reinforcement learning policy refinement (discovery). This approach closely resembles classical human-driven physical discovery, when several alternative hypotheses realized via models with adjustable parameters are tested during an experiment. This approach is demonstrated for exploring concentration-induced phase transitions in combinatorial libraries of Sm-doped BiFeO 3 using piezoresponse force microscopy, but it is straightforward to extend it to higher-dimensional parameter spaces and more complex physical problems once the experimental workflow and hypothesis generation are available.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Discovery of structure–property relations for molecules via hypothesis-driven active learning over the chemical space

The discovery of the molecular candidates for application in drug targets, biomolecular systems, catalysts, photovoltaics, organic electronics, and batteries necessitates the development of machine learning algorithms capable of rapid exploration of chemical spaces targeting the desired functionalities. Here, we introduce a novel approach for active learning over the chemical spaces based on hypothesis learning. We construct the hypotheses on the possible relationships between structures and functionalities of interest based on a small subset of data followed by introducing them as (probabilistic) mean functions for the Gaussian process. This approach combines the elements from the symbolic regression methods, such as SISSO and active learning, into a single framework. The primary focus of constructing this framework is to approximate physical laws in an active learning regime toward a more robust predictive performance, as traditional evaluation on hold-out sets in machine learning does not account for out-of-distribution effects which may lead to a complete failure on unseen chemical space. Here, we demonstrate it for the QM9 dataset, but it can be applied more broadly to datasets from both domains of molecular and solid-state materials sciences.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS1996

Induction as Knowledge Integration

Two key issues for induction algorithms are the accuracy of the learned hypothesis and the computational resources consumed in inducing that hypothesis. One of the most promising ways to improve performance along both dimensions is to make use of additional knowledge. Multi-strategy learning algorithms tackle this problem by employing several strategies for handling different kinds of knowledge in different ways. However, integrating knowledge into an induction algorithm can be difficult when the new knowledge differs significantly from the knowledge the algorithm already uses. In many cases the algorithm must be rewritten. This paper presents Knowledge Integration framework for Induction (KII), a KII, that provides a uniform mechanism for integrating knowledge into induction. In theory, arbitrary knowledge can be integrated with this mechanism, but in practice the knowledge representation language determines both the knowledge that can be integrated, and the costs of integration and induction. By instantiating KII with various set representations, algorithms can be generated at different trade-off points along these dimensions. One instantiation of KII, called RS-KII, is presented that can implement hybrid induction algorithms, depending on which knowledge it utilizes. RS-KII is demonstrated to implement AQ-11, as well as a hybrid algorithm that utilizes a domain theory and noisy examples. Other algorithms are also possible.

Smith, Benjamin D.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Adaptive Cybersecurity for Distributed Energy Resources (AdCyDER): Online Reinforcement Learning with Stackelberg-Optimized Defenses — Pipeline Architecture, Evaluation Methodology, and Findings from a Synthetic-Data Evaluation

This report documents the design and evaluation of an integrated online-learning pipeline developed within the AdCyDER project for Distributed Energy Resource (DER) cybersecurity. The pipeline couples a Reinforcement Learning (RL) attack classifier — which produces an attack-type probability distribution — with a Stackelberg game-theoretic (GT) defense selector that consumes those distributions alongside SME-encoded priors over (defense, attack) effectiveness pairings and perdefense costs to choose grid-health-preserving defenses. The objective is not attack classification per se but production of distributions that drive effective defense selection through the Stackelberg layer, learned from delayed grid-health feedback rather than labeled attack data. AdCyDER as a whole is broader than the work presented here; this report covers the specific RL/GT loop integration and its evaluation. We present the integrated pipeline (SCADA telemetry with Fronius inverter physics, Suricata IDS, time-windowed aggregation, per-facility LSTM classifier, Stackelberg optimizer, OpenC2 actuators), an experimental campaign of 28 eight-hour iterations across three baseline modes, and a pipeline-ordered diagnostic protocol. The protocol identifies two distinct failure modes within the loop: paired supervised ceilings on the same features establish that the deployed online RL classifier (macro F1 ≈ 0.07) sits at least 4.7× below a same-architecture supervised LSTM (≈ 0.34) and 10–11× below a linear feature-signal ceiling (≈ 0.70–0.79 depending on per-facility isolation), localizing the dominant failure to the training procedure; and the reward signal driving online updates carries weak directional coupling with classifier correctness in the methodology-expected direction (multi-lens convergent: top-decile P(true) records produce more frequent state changes and slightly larger improvements, top-vs-bot Cohen’s 𝑑 ≈ −0.19), but at effect magnitudes too small to drive gradient-based learning at the campaign sample size. The original learning hypothesis is not supported by the data. The primary contributions are the diagnostic methodology — proposed as a transferable falsification protocol for online RL/GT defense pipelines learning from delayed environmental reward — and the open, reproducible experimental infrastructure. We outline reward reformulation as the highest-priority aspirational next step given the underpowered-but-aligned Q6 reading, with hardware-in-the-loop evaluation as the broadest scope-expansion option.

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
DOE OSTI2024

Insights into Prismatic Loop Formation in Irradiated Fe–Cr Alloys from Hypothesis-Driven Active Learning and Causal Analysis

Neutron and electron irradiation experimental studies conducted on body-centered cubic Fe and Fe–Cr alloys have established two prismatic dislocation loop populations, which have Burgers vectors of either a/2$\langle$111$\rangle$ or a$\langle$100$\rangle$. Here, the loop formation depends on factors such as dose (D), dose rate (D rt ), temperature (T), chromium content (Cr%), and other alloying elements. Hence, it is important to understand how irradiation-induced dislocation loops evolve conditional upon the loop characteristics, such as loop density (DD), average loop size d̅, and irradiation parameters (D, D rt , T, and irradiation type), which is still an active area of research. To understand these complex structure–property relationships, machine learning (ML) is employed in a three-step approach. This includes imputing missing data with a k-nearest neighbor, generating functionalized features, and assessing feature importance with random forest classification and regression. Physics-based features are incorporated in a hypothesis-driven active learning scheme to overcome data unavailability challenges. Insights obtained from ML models (i) to categorize dislocation loop types, show the highest correlation with d̅; (ii) Log(DD), obtained through mathematical formulations involving D, Cr%, d̅, and T (e.g., Log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/d̅ and log(DD) ~ D + exp(-Cr%) + 1/T). Hypothesis-driven active learning is able to predict Log(DD) in which the experimental date is not known. Causal models verify cause–effect relationships for dislocation loop classification and irradiation factors in FeCr alloys.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Structural mode coupling in perovskite oxides using hypothesis-driven active learning

Abstract Finding the ground-state structure with minimum energy is paramount to designing any material. In ABO 3 -type perovskite oxides with Pnma symmetry, the lowest energy phase is driven by an inherent trilinear coupling between the two primary order parameters such as rotation and tilt with antiferroelectric displacement of the A-site cations as established via hybrid improper ferroelectric mechanism. Conventionally, finding the relevant mode coupling driving phase transition requires performing first-principles calculations which is computationally time-consuming as well as expensive. It involves following an intuitive iterative hit and trial method of (a) adding two or multiple mode vectors, followed by (b) evaluating which combination would lead to the ground-state energy. In this study, we show how a hypothesis-driven active learning framework can identify suitable mode couplings within the Landau free energy expansion with minimal information on amplitudes of modes for a series of double perovskite oxides with A-site layered, columnar and rocksalt ordering. This scheme is expected to be applicable universally for understanding atomistic mechanisms derived from various structural mode couplings behind functionalities, for e.g. polarization, magnetization and metal–insulator transitions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRS1999

Efficient Heuristic Hypothesis Ranking

This paper considers the problem of learning the ranking of a set of stochastic alternatives based upon incomplete information (i.e., a limited number of samples).

machine↗
DOE OSTI2022

Hypothesis-Agnostic Network-Based Analysis of Real-World Data Suggests Ondansetron is Associated with Lower COVID-19 Any Cause Mortality

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic generated a massive amount of clinical data, which potentially hold yet undiscovered answers related to COVID-19 morbidity, mortality, long-term effects, and therapeutic solutions.Objectives: The objectives of this study were (1) to identify novel predictors of COVID-19 any cause mortality by employing artificial intelligence analytics on real-world data through a hypothesis-agnostic approach and (2) to determine if these effects are maintained after adjusting for potential confounders and to what degree they are moderated by other variables.Methods: A Bayesian statistics-based artificial intelligence data analytics tool (bAIcis®) within the Interrogative Biology® platform was used for Bayesian network learning and hypothesis generation to analyze 16,277 PCR+ patients from a database of 279,281 inpatients and outpatients tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection by antigen, antibody, or PCR methods during the first pandemic year in Central Florida. This approach generated Bayesian networks that enabled unbiased identification of significant predictors of any cause mortality for specific COVID-19 patient populations. These findings were further analyzed by logistic regression, regression by least absolute shrinkage and selection operator, and bootstrapping.Results: We found that in the COVID-19 PCR+ patient cohort, early use of the antiemetic agent ondansetron was associated with decreased any cause mortality 30 days post-PCR+ testing in mechanically ventilated patients.Conclusions: The results demonstrate how a real-world COVID-19-focused data analysis using artificial intelligence can generate unexpected yet valid insights that could possibly support clinical decision making and minimize the future loss of lives and resources.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1982

Technology assessment of advanced automation for space missions

Six general classes of technology requirements derived during the mission definition phase of the study were identified as having maximum importance and urgency, including autonomous world model based information systems, learning and hypothesis formation, natural language and other man-machine communication, space manufacturing, teleoperators and robot systems, and computer science and technology.

Source record↗
DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning in Infectious Disease for Risk Factor Identification and Hypothesis Generation: Proof of Concept Using Invasive Candidiasis

Machine learning (ML) models can handle large data sets without assuming underlying relationships and can be useful for evaluating disease characteristics, yet they are more commonly used for predicting individual disease risk than for identifying factors at the population level. We offer a proof of concept applying random forest (RF) algorithms to Candida-positive hospital encounters in an electronic health record database of patients in the United States. Candida-positive encounters were extracted from the Cerner HealthFacts database; invasive infections were laboratory-positive sterile site Candida infections. Features included demographics, admission source, care setting, physician specialty, diagnostic and procedure codes, and medications received before the first positive Candida culture. We used RF to assess risk factors for 3 outcomes: any invasive candidiasis (IC) vs non-IC, within-species IC vs non-IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs noninvasive C. glabrata), and between-species IC (eg, invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC). Fourteen of 169 (8%) variables were consistently identified as important features in the ML models. When evaluating within-species IC, for example, invasive C. glabrata vs non-invasive C. glabrata, we identified known features like central venous catheters, intensive care unit stay, and gastrointestinal operations. In contrast, important variables for invasive C. glabrata vs all other IC included renal disease and medications like diabetes therapeutics, cholesterol medications, and antiarrhythmics. Known and novel risk factors for IC were identified using ML, demonstrating the hypothesis-generating utility of this approach for infectious disease conditions about which less is known, specifically at the species level or for rarer diseases.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Unveiling mesoscopic structures in distorted lamellar phases through deep learning-based small angle neutron scattering analysis

Hypothesis: The formation of distorted lamellar phases, distinguished by their arrangement of crumpled, stacked layers, is frequently accompanied by the disruption of long-range order, leading to the formation of interconnected network structures commonly observed in the sponge phase. Nevertheless, traditional scattering functions grounded in deterministic modeling fall short of fully representing these intricate structural characteristics. Our hypothesis posits that a deep learning method, in conjunction with the generalized leveled wave approach used for describing structural features of distorted lamellar phases, can quantitatively unveil the inherent spatial correlations within these phases. Experiments and Simulations: This report outlines a novel strategy that integrates convolutional neural networks and variational autoencoders, supported by stochastically generated density fluctuations, into a regression analysis framework for extracting structural features of distorted lamellar phases from small angle neutron scattering data. To evaluate the efficacy of our proposed approach, we conducted computational accuracy assessments and applied it to the analysis of experimentally measured small angle neutron scattering spectra of AOT surfactant solutions, a frequently studied lamellar system. Findings: The findings unambiguously demonstrate that deep learning provides a dependable and quantitative approach for investigating the morphology of wide variations of distorted lamellar phases. It is adaptable for deciphering structures from the lamellar to sponge phase including intermediate structures exhibiting fused topological features. In conclusion, this research highlights the effectiveness of deep learning methods in tackling complex issues in the field of soft matter structural analysis and beyond.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2023

Effects of Substance Use and Antisocial Personality on Neuroimaging-Based Machine Learning Prediction of Schizophrenia

Abstract Background and hypothesis Neuroimaging-based machine learning (ML) algorithms have the potential to aid the clinical diagnosis of schizophrenia. However, literature on the effect of prevalent comorbidities such as substance use disorder (SUD) and antisocial personality (ASPD) on these models’ performance has remained unexplored. We investigated whether the presence of SUD or ASPD affects the performance of neuroimaging-based ML models trained to discern patients with schizophrenia (SCH) from controls. Study design We trained an ML model on structural MRI data from public datasets to distinguish between SCH and controls (SCH = 347, controls = 341). We then investigated the model’s performance in two independent samples of individuals undergoing forensic psychiatric examination: sample 1 was used for sensitivity analysis to discern ASPD (N = 52) from SCH (N = 66), and sample 2 was used for specificity analysis to discern ASPD (N = 26) from controls (N = 25). Both samples included individuals with SUD. Study results In sample 1, 94.4% of SCH with comorbid ASPD and SUD were classified as SCH, followed by patients with SCH + SUD (78.8% classified as SCH) and patients with SCH (60.0% classified as SCH). The model failed to discern SCH without comorbidities from ASPD + SUD (AUC = 0.562, 95%CI = 0.400–0.723). In sample 2, the model’s specificity to predict controls was 84.0%. In both samples, about half of the ASPD + SUD were misclassified as SCH. Data-driven functional characterization revealed associations between the classification as SCH and cognition-related brain regions. Conclusion Altogether, ASPD and SUD appear to have effects on ML prediction performance, which potentially results from converging cognition-related brain abnormalities between SCH, ASPD, and SUD.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗