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Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations: Executive summary

An analysis was performed of the operations of hydropower systems, with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can effectively increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined in detail to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results were used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept was outlined.

Sohn, R. L.

Multi-Model Assessment of Global Hydropower and Cooling Water Discharge Potential Under Climate Change

Worldwide, 98% of total electricity is currently produced by thermoelectric power and hydropower. Climate change is expected to directly impact electricity supply, in terms of both water availability for hydropower generation and cooling water usage for thermoelectric power. Improved understanding of how climate change may impact the availability and temperature of water resources is therefore of major importance. Here we use a multi-model ensemble to show the potential impacts of climate change on global hydropower and cooling water discharge potential. For the first time, combined projections of streamflow and water temperature were produced with three global hydrological models (GHMs) to account for uncertainties in the structure and parametrization of these GHMs in both water availability and water temperature. The GHMs were forced with bias-corrected output of five general circulation models (GCMs) for both the lowest and highest representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). The ensemble projections of streamflow and water temperature were then used to quantify impacts on gross hydropower potential and cooling water discharge capacity of rivers worldwide. We show that global gross hydropower potential is expected to increase between +2.4% (GCM-GHM ensemble mean for RCP 2.6) and +6.3% (RCP 8.5) for the 2080s compared to 1971-2000. The strongest increases in hydropower potential are expected for Central Africa, India, central Asia and the northern high-latitudes, with 18-33% of the world population living in these areas by the 2080s. Global mean cooling water discharge capacity is projected to decrease by 4.5-15% (2080s). The largest reductions are found for the United States, Europe, eastern Asia, and southern parts of South America, Africa and Australia, where strong water temperature increases are projected combined with reductions in mean annual streamflow. These regions are expected to affect 11-14% (for RCP2.6 and the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP)1, SSP2, SSP4) and 41-51% (RCP8.5-SSP3, SSP5) of the world population by the 2080s.

global hydrological models

Analysis of information systems for hydropower operations

The operations of hydropower systems were analyzed with emphasis on water resource management, to determine how aerospace derived information system technologies can increase energy output. Better utilization of water resources was sought through improved reservoir inflow forecasting based on use of hydrometeorologic information systems with new or improved sensors, satellite data relay systems, and use of advanced scheduling techniques for water release. Specific mechanisms for increased energy output were determined, principally the use of more timely and accurate short term (0-7 days) inflow information to reduce spillage caused by unanticipated dynamic high inflow events. The hydrometeorologic models used in predicting inflows were examined to determine the sensitivity of inflow prediction accuracy to the many variables employed in the models, and the results used to establish information system requirements. Sensor and data handling system capabilities were reviewed and compared to the requirements, and an improved information system concept outlined.

Sohn, R. L.

Reviewing Benefits and Costs of Hydropower Development Evidence From the Lower Mekong River Basin

In this paper, we examine the benefits and costs of hydropower development in the Mekong River Basin. We compare four major reports—the Mekong River Commission's (MRC's) Basin Development Plan Programme, Phase 2 (BDP2), the Strategic Environmental Assessment of Hydropower on the Mekong Mainstream (SEA), the Study on the Impacts of Mainstream Hydropower on the Mekong River (MDS), and the MRC's recent council study (CS)—in order to provide the basis for a comparative analysis of the major impact evaluation literature on mainstream dam construction in the Mekong River Basin for the period of 2010–2018. The primary objective of the review is to identify points of agreement, disagreement, inconsistency, and knowledge gaps. Both Mekong River Commission reports (BDP2 and CS) suggest extensive economic benefits for proposed hydropower development, whereas the SEA and MDS indicate that the net impact would be negative. The projected impacts of hydropower development on fisheries, sediment flows, and ecosystems vary widely both in economic and biophysical terms. However, all four reports point to decreased food security and loss of local livelihoods for millions of people as major concerns related to dam development. While considerable resources have been devoted to producing these important studies, the lack of standardization across reports, especially assumptions and methodologies for economic impacts, frustrates efforts at meaningful comparison of their findings and precludes the prospect of clear analytical outcomes or policy impacts.

Cumulative impact assessment

A parametric study of the value of hydrological information for irrigation and hydropower management of the Feather River

A case study analysis is presented of the relationships between improvements in the accuracy, frequency, and timeliness of information used in making hydrological forecasts and economic benefits in the areas of hydropower and irrigation. The area chosen for the case study is the Oroville Dam and Reservoir. Emphasis is placed on the use of timely and accurate mapping of the aerial extent of snow in the basin by earth resources survey systems such as LANDSAT. The subject of benefits resulting from improved runoff forecasts is treated in a generalized way without specifying the source of the improvements.

Wetzler, E.

Tonlé Sap Food Security and Agriculture II: Evaluating Changes in Ecosystem Vitality and Freshwater Healthin the Tonlé Sap Basin using Remotely Sensed Data

The Tonlé Sap Lake and river basin in central Cambodia provide critical ecosystem services to the region, including fisheries, agricultural irrigation, hydropower, and biodiverse habitats. Deforestation, increased pumping for farming, and effects of climate change such as droughts and forest fires threaten the health of the lake and food security in the region. This project built upon the previous term through a partnership with Conservation International (CI), the Cambodian Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology, and the Tonlé Sap Authority to assess ecosystem vitality and implement CI’s Freshwater Health Index (FHI) tool, in an effort to prioritize resource expenditure and highlight areas of concern. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic and related travel restrictions, partners had not been able to readily collect in situ data for the past year, which make up the majority of FHI inputs. To help fill this data gap, we developed a methodology for using Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite data to calculate groundwater storage depletion, and a Python Application Programming Interface for processing and formatting remotely-sensed data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We then used SWAT to model nutrient flows and of phosphorous, nitrogen and suspended sediments amounts in the basin from October 2000 to December 2020. These outputs served as inputs for the FHI and provided policy makers with robust monitoring information to aid decision-making in the area and safeguard the lake’s vital fisheries and biodiversity.

Justine Spore

Assessment Planning and Evaluation of Renewable Energy Resources: an Interactive Computer Assisted Procedure

Adaptation and derivation were used to develop a procedure for assessing the availability of renewable energy resources on the landscape while simultaneously accounting for the economic, legal, social, and environmental issues required. Done in a step-by-step fashion, the procedure can be used interactively at the computer terminals. Its application in determining the hydroelectricity, biomass, and windpower in a 40,000 acre study area of Western Massachusetts shows that: (1) three existing dam sites are physically capable of being retrofitted for hydropower; (2) each of three general areas has a mean annual windspeed exceeding 14 mph and is conductive to windpower; and (3) 20% of the total land area consists of prime agricultural biomass while 30% of the area is prime forest biomass land.

Aston, T. W.

Snow cover, snowmelt and runoff in the Himalayan River basins

Not withstanding the seasonal vagaries of both rainfall amount and snowcover extent, the Himalayan rivers retain their basic perennial character. However, it is the component of snowmelt yield that accounts for some 60 to 70 percent of the total annual flow volumes from Hamilayan watersheds. On this large hydropotential predominantly depends the temporal performance of hydropower generation and major irrigation projects. The large scale effects of Himalayan snowcover on the hydrologic responses of a few selected catchments in western Himalayas was studied. The antecedent effects of snowcover area on long and short term meltwater yields can best be analyzed by developing appropriate hydrologic models forecasting the pattern of snowmelt as a function of variations in snowcover area. It is hoped that these models would be of practical value in the management of water resources. The predictability of meltwater for the entire snowmelt season was studied, as was the concurrent flow variation in adjacent watersheds, and their hydrologic significance. And the applicability of the Snowmelt-Runoff Model for real time forecast of daily discharges during the major part of the snowmelt season is examined.

Dey, B.

Validation of Globsnow-2 Snow Water Equivalent Over Eastern Canada

In Qubec, Eastern Canada, snowmelt runoff contributes more than 30% of the annual energy reserve for hydroelectricity production, and uncertainties in annual maximum snow water equivalent (SWE) over the region are one of the main constraints for improved hydrological forecasting. Current satellite-based methods for mapping SWE over Qubec's main hydropower basins do not meet Hydro-Qubec operational requirements for SWE accuracies with less than 15% error. This paper assesses the accuracy of the GlobSnow-2 (GS-2) SWE product, which combines microwave satellite data and in situ measurements, for hydrological applications in Qubec. GS-2 SWE values for a 30-year period (1980 to 2009) were compared with space- and time-matched values from a comprehensive dataset of in situ SWE measurements (a total of 38,990 observations in Eastern Canada). The root mean square error (RMSE) of the GS-2 SWE product is 94.1+/- 20.3 mm, corresponding to an overall relative percentage error (RPE) of 35.9%. The main sources of uncertainty are wet and deep snow conditions (when SWE is higher than 150 mm), and forest cover type. However, compared to a typical stand-alone brightness temperature channel difference algorithm, the assimilation of surface information in the GS-2 algorithm clearly improves SWE accuracy by reducing the RPE by about 30%. Comparison of trends in annual mean and maximum SWE between surface observations and GS-2 over 1980-2009 showed agreement for increasing trends over southern Qubec, but less agreement on the sign and magnitude of trends over northern Qubec. Extended at a continental scale, the GS-2 SWE trends highlight a strong regional variability.

Snow water equivalent