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Lattice Confinement Fusion Fast Fission – A Hybrid Power System for Accessing Icy World Oceans

Lattice Confinement Fusion (LCF) is an emerging power technology that can be combined with nuclear fission to produce a hybrid innovative power system. The proposed innovation is a compact, scalable nuclear energy source that does not use highly enriched uranium (HEU), high-assay enriched uranium (HALEU), low enriched uranium (LEU) nor plutonium-238. The nuclear energy source consists of a hybrid fusion-fast-fission method whereby neutrons generated from LCF are used to fission materials such as depleted uranium or thorium. LCF has been demonstrated by both NASA (published in Physical Review C) and by Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (published in the Journal of Applied Physics). Although these methods are reminiscent of Low Energy Nuclear Reactions (LENR), both methods operate at much higher energies than any attempt at cold fusion. This new hybrid energy source is sufficient to provide power and heat for melting or boring through icy caps with untethered, autonomous probes. These probes can be used for planetary (i.e., Pluto), lunar (i.e., Enceladus), or asteroid (i.e., Ceres) exploration where icy caps are encountered. Each world may have a liquid water ocean beneath their ice crust. A robotic probe exploring the oceans beneath must either melt or bore through the ice crust first. Such a mission requires a small, but robust and long lived, electrical energy and heat source such as the LCF Fast Fission hybrid power system.

Theresa L. Benyo

Space Technology Mission Directorate: Game Changing Development Program: Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) can help enable detailed exploration of the solar system, extensive development and utilization of cis-lunar space, and robust human Mars architectures. To improve affordability and viability, NTP systems that utilize low-enriched uranium (LEU) instead of highly enriched uranium (HEU) are being devised. Advanced fuel manufacturing techniques will help enable the use of LEU in certain fission systems previously thought to require HEU. The current LEU NTP baseline engine relies on a fission reactor containing fuel elements made of uranium nitride and refractory metals.

testing and performance

Exergy Efficiency of Interplanetary Transfer Vehicles

In order to optimize systems, systems engineers require some sort of measure with which to compare vastly different system components. One such measure is system exergy, or the usable system work. Exergy balance analysis models provide a comparison of different system configurations, allowing systems engineers to compare different systems configuration options. This paper presents the exergy efficiency of several Mars transportation system configurations, using data on the interplanetary trajectory, engine performance, and vehicle mass. The importance of the starting and final parking orbits is addressed in the analysis, as well as intermediate hyperbolic escape and entry orbits within Earth and Mars' spheres of influence (SOIs). Propulsion systems analyzed include low-enriched uranium (LEU) nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), high-enriched uranium (HEU) NTP, LEU methane (CH4) NTP, and liquid oxygen (LOX)/liquid hydrogen (LH2) chemical propulsion.

Owen, Sean T.

Exergy Efficiency of Interplanetary Transfer Vehicles

In order to optimize systems, systems engineers require some sort of measure with which to compare vastly different system components. One such measure is system exergy, or the usable system work. Exergy balance analysis models provide a comparison of different system configurations, allowing systems engineers to compare different systems configuration options. This paper presents the exergy efficiency of several Mars transportation system configurations, using data on the interplanetary trajectory, engine performance, and vehicle mass. The importance of the starting and final parking orbits is addressed in the analysis, as well as intermediate hyperbolic escape and entry orbits within Earth and Mars' spheres of influence (SOIs). Propulsion systems analyzed include low-enriched uranium (LEU) nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), high-enriched uranium (HEU) NTP, LEU methane (CH4) NTP, and liquid oxygen (LOX)/liquid hydrogen (LH2) chemical propulsion.

Owen, Sean T.

Exergy Efficiency of Interplanetary Transfer Vehicles

In order to optimize systems, systems engineers require some sort of measure with which to compare vastly different system components. One such measure is system exergy, or the usable system work. Exergy balance analysis models provide a comparison of different system configurations, allowing systems engineers to compare different systems configuration options. This paper presents the exergy efficiency of several Mars transportation system configurations, using data on the interplanetary trajectory, engine performance, and vehicle mass. The importance of the starting and final parking orbits is addressed in the analysis, as well as intermediate hyperbolic escape and entry orbits within Earth and Mars' spheres of influence (SOIs). Propulsion systems analyzed include low-enriched uranium (LEU) nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP), high-enriched uranium (HEU) NTP, LEU methane (CH4) NTP, and liquid oxygen (LOX)/liquid hydrogen (LH2) chemical propulsion.

Owen, Sean T.

Nonproliferation Challenges in Space Defense Technology - PANEL

The use of highly enriched uranium (HEU) almost always "helps" space fission systems. Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) and high power fission electric systems appear able to use < 20% enriched uranium with minimal / acceptable performance impacts. However, lower power, "entry level" systems may be needed for space fission technology to be developed and utilized. Low power (i.e. approx.1 kWe) fission systems may have an unacceptable performance penalty if LEU is used instead of HEU. Are there Ways to Support Non-Proliferation Objectives While Simultaneously Helping Enable the Development and Utilization of Modern Space Fission Power and Propulsion Systems?

Nuclear

Higher Power Design Concepts for NASA's Kilopower Reactor

The successful testing of the Kilopower reactor during the KRUSTY (Kilopower Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY) experiment significantly reduced the risk to fly fission power systems by demonstrating stable reactor operation through nominal and severe simulated mission scenarios. The experiment validated the neutronics, heat transfer, and power conversion systems needed for 1 kilowatt of electrical power production from the Kilopower reactor. The need for higher power reactors to support human exploration missions to the moon and Mars has become increasingly important due to the urgency to put boots on the moon by 2024 and have a sustainable presence in the following years. This desire has prompted NASA to continue the development of the Kilopower reactor to extend the power up to 10 kilowatts of electricity in support of a lunar base. These 10 kilowatt units are expected to be used as standalone units or be ganged together to create a modular power grid for propellent production, human habitats, and robotic exploration to name a few. The Kilopower reactor was originally designed to produce electrical power from 1 to 10 kilowatts using the same highly enriched uranium fuel, sodium heat pipes, and Stirling convertors at the proper scale. Consideration has also been given to the use of low enriched uranium fuel for these missions and will be studied along with the other aspects of the reactor. This paper will focus on the design concepts and trades associated with the scale up of the Kilopower power conversion system and heat transfer system to support human exploration of the moon and Mars.

Gibson, Marc

KRUSTY Reactor Design

The Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) was a reactor design, development, and test program to demonstrate the nuclear operation of a Kilopower reactor. Kilopower systems are intended to provide between 1 and 10 kW(electric) in space, or on the surface of planets or moons, with a clear evolution to substantially higher power systems. KRUSTY was a prototype of a 1-kW(electric) highly enriched uranium–fueled Kilopower system. In March of 2018, KRUSTY successfully operated as a fission power system and was the first nuclear-powered operation of any truly new reactor concept in the United States in over 40 years. This paper discusses the design of the KRUSTY reactor along with the philosophy, goals, and engineering work that ultimately led to KRUSTY’s success.

Kilopower

Accessing Icy World Oceans using Lattice Confinement Fusion Fast Fission

Exploring the oceans of icy moons and planets requires a robust robotic probe powered by an energy source that can operate under icy world ocean conditions and be self-contained. We propose a non-fissile, compact, scalable nuclear energy source to electrically power untethered, autonomous probes to melt or bore through icy world crusts. The probe can be used for planetary (i.e. Pluto, lunar (i.e., Europa), or asteroid exploration (i.e. Ceres) where ice caps are encountered. This new approach may yield a variable output fission power source with a higher performance than 238Pu and a non-fissile alternative to a highly enriched uranium (HEU) core. This approach saves uranium enrichment expense, and both HEU and 238Pu security and launch safety costs. The reactor will produce electrical power with thermal waste heat to melt through the ice crust with possible sonic assistance. This paper will introduce the hybrid fusion-fission reactor concept, explore the potential for and benefits of this new type of nuclear reactor, and discuss the technical approach to developing this new technology.

Theresa L Benyo

Accessing Icy Worlds using Lattice Confinement Fusion (LCF) Fast Fission

NASA proposed the Ocean Worlds Exploration Program to search for extraterrestrial life. The challenge is that up to 40 kilometer-thick ice must first be broken through to reach sub-surface oceans. These icy ocean worlds include Ceres, Europa, Enceladus, and Pluto. Each world may have a liquid water ocean beneath their ice crust. These oceans are likely heated by the parent planet’s tidal forces, or in the case of Pluto or Ceres, by residual radioactive decay. A robotic probe exploring the oceans beneath must either melt or bore through the ice crust first. Consequently, the proposed probe needs to contend with hydrostatic ice pressure, ice phase and density changes, then water pressure. Such a mission requires a small, but robust and long lived, electrical energy and heat source. Instead, we propose a novel, compact, scalable nuclear energy source using neither highly enriched uranium (HEU) nor 238Pu similar to the hybrid fusion-fission generator described by Forsley and Mosier-Boss. This nuclear energy source uses Lattice Confinement Fusion (LCF) neutrons to fast-fission thorium or depleted uranium where neither 232Th nor 238U isotopes are fissile

Theresa L Benyo

Accessing Icy Worlds Using Lattice Confinement Fusion (LCF) Fast Fission

Exploring the oceans of icy moons and planets requires a robust robotic probe powered by an energy source that can operate under icy world ocean conditions and be self-contained. We propose a non-fissile, compact, scalable nuclear energy source to electrically power untethered, autonomous probes to melt or bore through icy world crusts. The probe can be used for planetary (i.e. Pluto, lunar (i.e., Europa), or asteroid exploration (i.e. Ceres) where ice caps are encountered. This new approach may yield a variable output fission power source with a higher performance than 238Pu and a non-fissile alternative to a highly enriched uranium (HEU) core. This approach saves uranium enrichment expense, and both HEU and 238Pu security and launch safety costs. The reactor will produce electrical power with thermal waste heat to melt through the ice crust with possible sonic assistance. This NIAC funded proposal and presentation will introduce the hybrid fusion-fission reactor concept applied to the Saturnian moon, Enceladus, explore the potential for and benefits of this new type of nuclear reactor, and discuss applying this new technology.

Icy Worlds

Electrically Heated Testing of the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling Technology (KRUSTY) Experiment Using a Depleted Uranium Core

The Kilopower project aims to develop and demonstrate scalable fission-based power technology for systems capable of delivering 110 kW of electric power with a specific power ranging from 2.5 - 6.5 Wkg. This technology could enable high power science missions or could be used to provide surface power for manned missions to the Moon or Mars. NASA has partnered with the Department of Energys National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos National Labs, and Y-12 National Security Complex to develop and test a prototypic reactor and power system using existing facilities and infrastructure. This technology demonstration, referred to as the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY), will undergo nuclear ground testing in the summer of 2017 at the Nevada Test Site. The 1 kWe variation of the Kilopower system was chosen for the KRUSTY demonstration. The concept for the 1 kWe flight system consist of a 4 kWt highly enriched Uranium-Molybdenum reactor operating at 800 degrees Celsius coupled to sodium heat pipes. The heat pipes deliver heat to the hot ends of eight 125 W Stirling convertors producing a net electrical output of 1 kW. Waste heat is rejected using titanium-water heat pipes coupled to carbon composite radiator panels. The KRUSTY test, based on this design, uses a prototypic highly enriched uranium-molybdenum core coupled to prototypic sodium heat pipes. The heat pipes transfer heat to two Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC-E2s) and six thermal simulators, which simulate the thermal draw of full scale power conversion units. Thermal simulators and Stirling engines are gas cooled. The most recent project milestone was the completion of non-nuclear system level testing using an electrically heated depleted uranium (non-fissioning) reactor core simulator. System level testing at the Glenn Research Center (GRC) has validated performance predictions and has demonstrated system level operation and control in a test configuration that replicates the one to be used at the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the Nevada National Security Site. Fabrication, assembly, and testing of the depleted uranium core has allowed for higher fidelity system level testing at GRC, and has validated the fabrication methods to be used on the highly enriched uranium core that will supply heat for the DAF KRUSTY demonstration.

Briggs, Maxwell H.

Electrically Heated Testing of the Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY) Experiment Using a Depleted Uranium Core

The Kilopower project aims to develop and demonstrate scalable fission-based power technology for systems capable of delivering 1 to 10 kW of electric power with a specific power ranging from 2.5 to 6.5 W/kg. This technology could enable high-power science missions or could be used to provide surface power for manned missions to the Moon or Mars. NASA has partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Nevada National Security Site (NNSS), and Y−12 National Security Complex to develop and test a prototypic reactor and power system using existing facilities and infrastructure. This technology demonstration, referred to as the "Kilowatt Reactor Using Stirling TechnologY (KRUSTY)," will undergo nuclear ground testing by the end of calendar year (CY) 2017 at the NNSS. The 1-kWe variation of the Kilopower system was chosen for the KRUSTY demonstration. The concept for the 1-kWe flight system consists of a 4 kWt highly enriched uranium-molybdenum reactor operating at 800 degC coupled to sodium heat pipes. The heat pipes deliver heat to the hot ends of eight 125-W Stirling convertors producing a net electrical output of 1 kW. Waste heat is rejected using titanium-water heat pipes coupled to carbon composite radiator panels. The KRUSTY test, based on this design, uses a prototypic highly enriched uranium-molybdenum core coupled to prototypic sodium heat pipes. The heat pipes transfer heat to two Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC−E2s) and six thermal simulators, which simulate the thermal draw of full-scale power conversion units. Thermal simulators and Stirling engines are gas cooled. The most recent project milestone was the completion of nonnuclear system-level testing using an electrically heated depleted uranium (DU) (nonfissioning) reactor core simulator at the NASA Glenn Research Center. System-level testing has validated performance predictions and has demonstrated system-level operation and control in a test configuration that replicates the one to be used at the Device Assembly Facility (DAF) at the NNSS. Fabrication, assembly, and testing of the DU core has allowed for higher fidelity system-level testing at Glenn, and has validated the fabrication methods to be used on the highly enriched uranium core that will supply heat for the DAF KRUSTY demonstration.

Briggs, Maxwell H.

Enabling Deep Space Science Missions with Nuclear Thermal Propulsion

Nuclear thermal propulsion (NTP) enables entirely new classes of deep-space science missions to yield scientific returns that, in most cases, are simply not possible with traditional architectures. NTP systems can yield dramatically reduced interplanetary travel times, deliver roughly 2- 3 times (or more) the mass that can be delivered by conventional chemical propulsion systems, or provide a combination of these advantages to further enhance scientific return. Present NASA and DoD-sponsored plans for NTP systems will mature the technology using prototype and flight demonstration engines to prove the designs. These prototype engines will have performance in the correct thrust range so as to permit use as a low-risk propulsion stage in support of high-payoff deep space science missions. Additionally, the use of low-enriched Uranium (LEU) fuels over highly-enriched Uranium (HEU) fuels reduce the costs of engine development, qualification, acceptance and launch, and lowers the risks associated with proliferation management.

Kurt A Polzin

NASA's Nuclear Thermal Propulsion Project

Space fission power systems can provide a power rich environment anywhere in the solar system, independent of available sunlight. Space fission propulsion offers the potential for enabling rapid, affordable access to any point in the solar system. One type of space fission propulsion is Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP). NTP systems operate by using a fission reactor to heat hydrogen to very high temperature (>2500 K) and expanding the hot hydrogen through a supersonic nozzle. First generation NTP systems are designed to have an Isp of approximately 900 s. The high Isp of NTP enables rapid crew transfer to destinations such as Mars, and can also help reduce mission cost, improve logistics (fewer launches), and provide other benefits. However, for NTP systems to be utilized they must be affordable and viable to develop. NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) NTP project is a technology development project that will help assess the affordability and viability of NTP. Early work has included fabrication of representative graphite composite fuel element segments, coating of representative graphite composite fuel element segments, fabrication of representative cermet fuel element segments, and testing of fuel element segments in the Compact Fuel Element Environmental Tester (CFEET). Near-term activities will include testing approximately 16" fuel element segments in the Nuclear Thermal Rocket Element Environmental Simulator (NTREES), and ongoing research into improving fuel microstructure and coatings. In addition to recapturing fuels technology, affordable development, qualification, and utilization strategies must be devised. Options such as using low-enriched uranium (LEU) instead of highly-enriched uranium (HEU) are being assessed, although that option requires development of a key technology before it can be applied to NTP in the thrust range of interest. Ground test facilities will be required, especially if NTP is to be used in conjunction with high value or crewed missions. There are potential options for either modifying existing facilities or constructing new ground test facilities. At least three potential options exist for reducing (or eliminating) the release of radioactivity into the environment during ground testing. These include fully containing the NTP exhaust during the ground test, scrubbing the exhaust, or utilizing an existing borehole at the Nevada National Security Site (NNSS) to filter the exhaust. Finally, the project is considering the potential for an early flight demonstration of an engine very similar to one that could be used to support human Mars or other ambitious missions. The flight demonstration could be an important step towards the eventual utilization of NTP.

Houts, Michael

Centrifugal Nuclear Thermal Rocket Challenges and Potential

The Centrifugal Nuclear Thermal Rocket (CNTR) is a liquid fueled fission propulsion concept designed to heat propellant to 5000 K prior to expansion through a nozzle. A specific impulse up to 1800 s may be achieved using hydrogen propellant, and a specific impulse up to 1000 s may be achieved using more storable propellants such as methane, ammonia, or propane. The high uranium density of the liquid metallic uranium or liquid uranium carbide fuel will help enable compact engines suitable for missions such as fast (<15 month) round trip human Mars missions or high delta-V missions in cislunar space. Long term applications of the CNTR could include the advanced exploration and utilization of the solar system through direct use of in-situ volatiles as propellant. Challenges associated with the CNTR are numerous. Centrifugal force is used to retain the liquid fuel in rotating fuel cylinders, and rotational velocities up to 5000 rpm may be required. Propellant flow must be directed such that all structures and moderators in the core are adequately cooled prior to the propellant entering the liquid fuel and being heated to 5000 K. The rotating fuel cylinder wall (RFCW) must have an inner surface designed to be compatible with liquid uranium metal or uranium carbide fuel up to at least 1500 K, and that inner surface may also need to be textured to help maintain acceptable wall temperatures. Propellant must flow radially inward through the RFCW while fuel is simultaneously contained. The RFCW should ideal-ly be made from a material with low neutron absorption to help minimize engine mass and facilitate the use of High Assay Low Enriched Uranium (HALEU) fuel in the system. The drive system for the rotating fuel cylinders must support all phases of operation. This paper will discuss computational and experimental research being conducted to address some of the challenges associated with the CNTR, and will also note potential mission benefits from the CNTR.

Michael G. Houts

Strategy for Developing Technologies for Megawatt-class Nuclear Electric Propulsion Systems

In late fiscal year 2020, the Space Nuclear Propulsion (SNP) project began the process of formulating an investment strategy to support development of the technologies required for a high-power (megawatt-class) nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) system capable of performing human-scale missions. This activity was initiated concurrent with several high-level studies and assessments were either under way or had just concluded. Studies of human-scale Mars missions have been performed several times over the past two decades. One of the most recent studies examined opposition-class human Mars missions to occur in the late 2030s timeframe [1,2]. The mission architecture assumed a hybrid NEP/chem-propelled vehicle that used a high specific impulse (Isp) NEP-system and a liquid oxygen (LOx)-liquid methane high thrust chemical stage (two 110 kN (25 klbf) thrust, 365 s Isp engines) for maneuvers performed to enter and exit gravity wells. Trajectory analyses performed in this study showed that such a mission could be performed with 2-4 MWe directed into the electric propulsion system (operating for 20,000+ hours), with the large range representing different opposition-class Mars mission opportunities and permutations on the trajectory design, concept of operations, and technology choices. In 2020, the NASA Engineering and Safety Center (NESC) performed a study to evaluate the maturity of the different technologies required for nuclear propulsion systems [3]. The executive summary of this report provided the following top-level conclusions: • “The majority of critical technologies for… NEP/Chem… systems are relatively immature” • “TRLs [technology readiness levels] in the literature are often overestimated” • “The majority of critical technologies… for NEP/Chem… systems are at a relatively high level of advancement degree of difficulty (AD2 > 4) for maturation, requiring a dual development approach” • “The proper assessment of baseline TRL and AD2 values and the estimation of requirements and resources required for advancement have been consistent issues for NEP,” • “Non-advocate reviews should occur at the start of a technology program and at all key milestones.” In 2021, the National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) issued a separate report [4] identifying the “primary technical and programmatic challenges, merits, and risks for maturing space nuclear propulsion technologies of interest to a future human Mars exploration mission.” That work contained several important findings, including: • “Developing a MWe-class NEP system for the baseline mission would require increasing power by orders of magnitude relative to NEP system flight- or ground-based technology demonstrations completed to date.” • “Subscale in-space flight testing of NEP systems cannot address many of the risks and potential failure modes associated with the baseline mission NEP system. With sufficient M&S [modeling & simulation] and ground testing, including modular subsystem tests at full scale and power, flight qualification requirements can be met by the cargo missions that will precede the first crewed mission to Mars. Fully integrated ground testing may not be required.” • “As a result of low and intermittent investment over the past several decades, it is unclear if even an aggressive program would be able to develop an NEP system capable of executing the baseline mission in 2039.” These efforts motivated the SNP project to investigate the technologies available for a megawatt-class high power nuclear electric propulsion system. That system is illustrated schematically in Figure 1 and is comprised of five separate top-level critical technology elements (CTEs). 1. Nuclear Reactor – Thermal power source for the system, utilizing high-assay low enriched uranium (HALEU) as the nuclear fuel. Reactor radiation shielding is also included in this CTE. 2. Power Conversion – Operates as a thermodynamic cycle, accepting nuclear reactor thermal power as an input and converting it to mechanical power. 3. Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) – Accepts as an input mechanical power from the power conversion system, which is used to generate electrical power. The PMAD system also distributes the generated electrical power to all other parts of the spacecraft, including the high-power EP system. The PMAD system may also perform duties such as isolation, fault detection, and power transformation/rectification for different spacecraft systems, including the thrusters. 4. Electric Propulsion (EP) – Accepts as an input electrical power, which is used to accelerate a propellant to high speeds to produce thrust. This system includes the power processing unit (PPU), which converts the power it receives to the correct current and voltage required by the thrusters, and the propellant storage and feed systems, which contain and meter the flow of propellant to the thrusters. 5. Thermal Management (Radiators/Heat Rejection) – The cold side of the thermodynamic power conversion cycle, accepts thermal power from the power conversion system and radiatively rejects that heat to space. In this paper, we describe the SNP project formulation and investment strategy that aims to accomplish the research and development required to advance the technology readiness for each CTE. The strategy relies heavily upon experimental testing supported by modeling and simulation to yield realistic assessments of the technologies, which in turn will be used to inform future NEP system-level design decisions and any potential technology downselects.

Kurt A Polzin

Affordable Development Strategy for NEP Nuclear Systems

One nuclear electric propulsion (NEP) reactor systems under consideration is a hydride moderated thermal spectrum reactor fueled by high assay low enriched uranium (HALEU). While such a reactor is expected to yield the lightest HALEU reactor design, its development challenges grow exponentially with increasing mission demands, most notably power output, specific weight of the overall system (which may require operation at temperatures exceeding 1200 K), service lifetime, and human-rated reliability. Two of the greatest cost drivers are full-powered nuclear demonstrations and extensive material development campaigns, so it is important to consider options that can minimize the need for or complexity of such tasks. This paper discusses a structured framework being developed for assessing how NEP design choices, such as materials selection, neutronic features, and heat-removal technologies, can translate into project risk and how project performance goals can be traded with development cost.Reactors operating at high temperatures often require cutting-edge heat transfer technologies and creep-resistant materials. Use of new materials in high temperature reactors brings additional complication beyond those common to any new space materials development campaign. For example, such materials may not possess necessary neutronic cross-sectional or neutronic irradiation data. Similarly, use of new materials may significantly influence core neutronics; in some extreme cases, neutronic reactivity feed-back of certain new materials can vary during their service life as radiation damage impacts the scattering cross-section. In an affordable development approach, high fidelity modeling and simulation tools are used to identify and characterize potential ‘knees-in-the-curves’ in the relationship that exists between the mission characteristics and the project risk. Of particular significance is use of modern uncertainty management and variance reduction methods to perform gap analyses that feed into phenomena identification and ranking tables (PIRT) commonly used to communicate nuclear readiness levels. Model-based measurements techniques are used to design sub-scale experiments as a substitute to minimize orcompletely eliminate the need for nuclear demonstrations.This paper will describe the approach and present preliminary results. It will lay the groundwork for developing a set of metrics that can be broadly characterized as system nuclear readiness levels and advancement degree of difficulty for nuclear systems. Equally importantly, a goal of this paper is to initiate a dialogue among stakeholders on what is the sufficient level of maturity that is required for launching a demonstration unit.

Dasari V Rao