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At least 19 records

Improving the estimate of higher-order moments from lidar observations near the top of the convective boundary layer

Abstract. Ground-based lidar data have proven extremely useful for profiling the convective boundary layer (CBL). Many groups have derived higher-order moments (e.g., variance, skewness, fluxes) from high-temporal-resolution lidar data using an autocovariance approach. However, these analyses are highly uncertain near the CBL top when the depth of the CBL (zi) is changing during the analysis period. This is because the autocovariance approach is usually applied to constant height levels and the character of the eddies is changing on either side of the changing CBL top. Here, a new approach is presented wherein the autocovariance analysis is performed on a normalized height grid, with a temporally smoothed zi. Output from a large eddy simulation model demonstrates that deriving higher-order moments from time series on a normalized height grid has better agreement with the slab-averaged quantities than the moments derived from the original height grid.

Rosenberger, Tessa E. (ORCID:0000000333205873)↗

Techniques for improved statistical convergence in quantification of eddy diffusivity moments

While recent approaches, such as the macroscopic forcing method (MFM) or Green's function-based approaches, can be used to compute Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes closure operators using forced direct numerical simulations, MFM can also be used to directly compute moments of the effective nonlocal and anisotropic eddy diffusivities. The low-order spatial and temporal moments contain limited information about the eddy diffusivity but are often sufficient for quantification and modeling of nonlocal and anisotropic effects. However, when using MFM to compute eddy diffusivity moments, the statistical convergence can be slow for higher-order moments. In this work, we demonstrate that using the same direct numerical simulation (DNS) for all forced MFM simulations improves statistical convergence of the eddy diffusivity moments. We present its implementation in conjunction with a decomposition method that handles the MFM forcing semianalytically and allows for consistent boundary condition treatment, which we develop for both scalar and momentum transport. We demonstrate that for a two-dimensional Rayleigh-Taylor instability case study, using the same DNS for all forced MFM simulations results in convergence with 𝒪⁡(100) simulations rather than 𝒪⁡(1000) simulations. In conclusion, we then demonstrate the impacts of improved convergence on the quantification of the eddy diffusivity.

general physics↗

Electron Influence on the Parallel Proton Firehose Instability in 10-moment, Multifluid Simulations

Instabilities driven by pressure anisotropy play a critical role in modulating the energy transfer in space and astrophysical plasmas. For the first time, we simulate the evolution and saturation of the parallel proton firehose instability using a multifluid model without adding artificial viscosity. These simulations are performed using a 10-moment, multifluid model with local and gradient relaxation heat-flux closures in high-β proton–electron plasmas. When these higher-order moments are included and pressure anisotropy is permitted to develop in all species, we find that the electrons have a significant impact on the saturation of the parallel proton firehose instability, modulating the proton pressure anisotropy as the instability saturates. Even for lower β's more relevant to heliospheric plasmas, we observe a pronounced electron energization in simulations using the gradient relaxation closure. Our results indicate that resolving the electron pressure anisotropy is important to correctly describe the behavior of multispecies plasma systems.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Ab initio computations of the fourth-order charge density moments of 48 Ca and 208 Pb

Neutron skins of neutron-rich nuclei connect nuclei with the matter in neutron stars. High-precision measurements of nuclear charge densities to extract higher-order moments are proposed to be sensitive to neutron radii and skin thicknesses. We investigate the charge density of 48 Ca and 208 Pb, leading candidates for such studies, with ab initio nuclear structure calculations. We find strong correlations between the fourth-order charge density moment R$^{4}_{ch}$ and the charge and neutron radii, allowing us to predict R$^{4}_{ch}$ for 48 Ca and 208 Pb. We find a substantially weaker correlation between the fourth-order charge density moment and the neutron skin, limiting the ability of high-precision electron scattering to determine the neutron skin in a model-independent manner.

Ab initio nuclear theory↗

Evaluating Probabilistic Deep Learning Methods for Uncertainty Quantification of Precipitation Bias Correction

Climate models often exhibit biases in their precipitation predictions, particularly underestimating high-intensity events and overestimating low precipitation. Deep learning approaches offer promising solutions, but their epistemic uncertainty associated with a deep learning–based bias correction method has not previously been quantified for reliable downstream climate impact studies. While methods for capturing the epistemic uncertainty in deep learning frameworks exist, there is currently no consensus on the best method. In this work, we compare three uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods—Deep Ensembles (DEns), Monte Carlo Dropout (MCD), and Flipout—by assessing the reliability of their uncertainty estimates using standard measures such as sharpness and calibration. These UQ methods are applied to an existing deep learning precipitation bias correction model known as UFNet: a coupled U-Net and fully connected neural network. The methods utilized to assess the models’ uncertainties are 1) calibration, which ensures that the expected probabilities of the model align with reality and 2) sharpness, which is a measure of the precision of the model’s probabilistic predictions. Of the three UQ methods evaluated, the DEns and MCD methods demonstrated the best-calibrated performance (expected calibration error of 0.36 and 0.35, respectively), compared to Flipout (0.58). In contrast, Flipout had the sharpest predictions and the highest metric performance in bias correcting precipitation—especially for higher-order moments such as kurtosis with a spatial correlation of 72% compared to 32% and 55% spatial correlation for DEns and MCD, respectively. Of the three UQ methods, MCD was found to be the most suitable method for UQ purposes based on its calibration, sharpness, and computational requirements.

Bayesian methods↗

Description of small-scale fluctuations in the diffuse X-ray background.

An analytical study of the fluctuations on a small angular scale expected in the diffuse X-ray background in the presence of unresolved sources is presented. The source population is described by a function N(S), giving the number of sources per unit solid angle and unit apparent flux S. The distribution of observed flux, s, in each angular resolution element of a complete sky survey is represented by a function Q(s). The analytical relation between the successive, higher-order moments of N(S) and Q(s) is described. The goal of reconstructing the source population from the study of the moments of Q(s) of order higher than the second (i.e., the rms fluctuations) is discussed.

Cavaliere, A.↗

Conservative projection-based data-driven model order reduction of a fluid-kinetic spectral solver

Kinetic simulations are computationally intensive due to six-dimensional phase space discretization. Many kinetic spectral solvers use the asymmetrically weighted Hermite expansion due to its conservation and fluid-kinetic coupling properties, i.e., the lower-order Hermite moments capture and describe the macroscopic fluid dynamics, and higher-order Hermite moments describe the microscopic kinetic dynamics. We leverage this structure by developing a parametric data-driven reduced-order model based on the proper orthogonal decomposition, which projects the higher-order kinetic moments while retaining the fluid moments intact. We demonstrate analytically and numerically that the method ensures local and global mass, momentum, and energy conservation. The numerical results show that the proposed method effectively replicates the high-dimensional spectral simulations at a fraction of the computational cost and memory, as validated on the weak Landau damping and two-stream instability benchmark problems.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Auroral ion velocity distributions using a relaxation model.

Calculation of ion velocity distributions for a weakly-ionized plasma subjected to crossed electric and magnetic fields for application to the auroral ionosphere. By replacing the Boltzmann collision integral with a simple relaxation model, an exact solution to Boltzmann's equation could be obtained. This solution has the advantage over a series expansion in that all the higher-order velocity moments are inherent in it. The exact solution is particularly advantageous when studying large departures of the distribution from its Maxwellian form, because these departures are caused by the higher velocity moments. In general, however, a simple relaxation model can only be used to obtain qualitative information on the distribution function. Consequently, it is possible to determine when the higher-order velocity moments affect the ion velocity distribution and the nature of their effect, but it is not possible to obtain accurate quantitative results.

St-Maurice, J.-P.↗

Turbulence-Resolving Simulations of Hurricane Laura (2020): Insights Into Extreme Winds and Eyewall Turbulence

Extreme weather events pose significant risks to coastal and offshore energy infrastructure. In this work, we investigate the structure of mean winds and turbulence near the surface ( z < 300 m) that occurred during Hurricane Laura in 2020 on the US Gulf Coast. To this end, we perform turbulence-resolving simulations (..delta..x = 33.33 m) that encompass the entire eyewall of Hurricane Laura by introducing a novel method that we will refer to as Moving-Mesoscale to Static-LES Integrated Coupling (MOSAIC). The simulation results are validated against surface, boundary-layer, and mid-tropospheric observations. Our analysis of the extreme wind conditions near the surface indicates that the mean wind and turbulence profiles vary greatly at and near the eyewall, resulting in extreme values of mean wind speed (U > 50 m * s-1) and turbulence kinetic energy (k ~ 50 m2 * s-2) at altitudes above 50 m . To investigate in detail the nature of turbulence within the eyewall of the storm, we conduct higher-resolution simulations (..delta..x = 11.11 m) of a portion of the hurricane. We provide a comprehensive statistical description of turbulence in the eyewall region, highlighting the need to employ ..delta..x ~ 10 m grid spacing to capture the integral length-scales near the surface, second- and higher-order central moments (i.e., skewness and kurtosis), and spectral coherence in the flow accurately. These numerical simulations provide the most detailed description of mean winds and turbulent conditions within the eyewall of a historical tropical cyclone to date, illustrating how high-resolution simulations can enhance limited turbulence measurements in hurricanes and giving insight into the extreme conditions threatening offshore and coastal infrastructure.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Locating the missing large-scale emission in the jet of M87* with short EHT baselines

In very-long baseline interferometric arrays, nearly co-located stations probe the largest scales and typically cannot resolve the observed source. In the absence of a large-scale structure, closure phases constructed with these stations are zero and, since they are independent of station-based errors, they can be used to probe data issues. Here, we show how these trivial closure phases become nonzero with a brightness distribution on smaller scales than their short baseline would suggest. When applied to sources that are made up of a bright compact and large-scale diffuse component, the trivial closure phases directly measure the centroid relative to the compact source and higher-order image moments. We present a technique to measure these image moments with minimal model assumptions and validate it on synthetic Event Horizon Telescope (EHT) data. We then apply this technique to 2017 and 2018 EHT observations of M87* and find a weak preference for extended emission in the direction of the large-scale jet. We also apply it to 2021 EHT data and measure the source centroid about 1 mas northwest of the compact ring, which is consistent with the jet observed at lower frequencies.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Atwood effects on nonlocality of the scalar transport closure in Rayleigh-Taylor mixing

The importance of nonlocality is assessed in modeling mean scalar transport for turbulent Rayleigh-Taylor (RT) mixing at different Atwood numbers. Building on the two-dimensional incompressible work of Lavacot et al. [J. Fluid Mech. 985, A47 (2024)], the present work extends the macroscopic forcing method to variable density problems in three-dimensional space to measure moments of the generalized eddy diffusivity kernel in RT mixing for increasing Atwood numbers (𝐴 = 0.05, 0.3, 0.5, 0.8). It is found that as 𝐴 increases, (1) the eddy diffusivity moments become asymmetric and (2) the higher-order eddy diffusivity moments become larger relative to the leading-order diffusivity, indicating that nonlocality becomes more important at higher 𝐴. There is a particularly strong temporal nonlocality at higher 𝐴, suggesting stronger history effects. In conclusion, the implications of these findings for closure modeling for finite-Atwood RT are discussed.

general physics↗

A Novel Approach to Fast Calculation of High-Order Q-Cumulants

The method of Q-cumulants has been shown as a powerful tool to study the fine details of the azimuthal anisotropies in high-energy nucleus-nucleus collisions. A new method for the fast calculation of arbitrary order Q-cumulant $v_{n}\{2k\}$ values, based on the partition of a non-negative integer l $\le$ m for calculation of the 2m-particle azimuthal correlations is presented in this paper. Unlike the standard Q-cumulants method in which the calculation of high-order multi-particle calculations is impractical, the newly proposed method enables easy calculation. The validity of the method is proven via a toy model that uses the elliptic power distribution to simulate anisotropic emission of particles. The method enables the study of fine details of the $v_{2}$ distribution, such as higher-order central moments of the $v_{2}$ distribution, as well as the hydrodynamic behavior of the Quark-Gluon Plasma.

FOS: Physical sciences↗

Multipolar multiferroics in 4⁢𝑑 2 /5⁢𝑑 2 Mott insulators

Here, we extend the concept of conventional multiferroicity—where ferroelectric and ferromagnetic orders coexist—to include multipolar degrees of freedom. Specifically, we explore how this phenomenon emerges in 4⁢𝑑 2 /5⁢𝑑 2 Mott insulators with strong spin-orbit and Hund's couplings. Our study uncovers the origin of magnetic multipolar interactions in these systems and demonstrates that a combination of quadrupolar and octupolar magnetic order can simultaneously induce both electrical quadrupolar moments and ferroelectric polarization. By expanding the multiferroic framework to higher-order multipoles, we reveal the possibility of coexisting multipolar orders of different or same ranks, paving the way for different functional properties in a large class of strongly correlated materials.

Mott insulators↗

Quantum error mitigation for Fourier moment computation

Hamiltonian moments in Fourier space—expectation values of the unitary evolution operator under a Hamiltonian at different times—provide a convenient framework to understand quantum systems. They offer insights into the energy distribution, higher-order dynamics, response functions, correlation information, and physical properties. This paper focuses on the computation of Fourier moments within the context of a nuclear effective field theory on superconducting quantum hardware. The study integrates echo verification and noise renormalization into Hadamard tests using control reversal gates. These techniques, combined with purification and error suppression methods, effectively address quantum hardware decoherence. The analysis, conducted using noise models, reveals a significant reduction in noise strength by two orders of magnitude. Moreover, quantum circuits involving up to 266 gates over five qubits demonstrate high accuracy under these methodologies when run on IBM superconducting quantum devices. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Kiss, Oriel (ORCID:0000000174613342)↗

Moment-based adaptive time integration for thermal radiation transport

Here, in this paper we develop a framework for moment-based adaptive time integration of deterministic multifrequency thermal radiation transpot (TRT). We generalize our recent semi-implicit-explicit (IMEX) integration framework for gray TRT to multifrequency TRT, and also introduce a semi-implicit variation that facilitates higher-order integration of TRT, where each stage is implicit in all components except opacities. To appeal to the broad literature on adaptivity with Runge–Kutta methods, we derive new embedded methods for four asymptotic preserving IMEX Runge–Kutta schemes we have found to be robust in our previous work on TRT and radiation hydrodynamics. We then use a moment-based high-order-low-order representation of the transport equations. Due to the high dimensionality, memory is always a concern in simulating TRT. We form error estimates and adaptivity in time purely based on temperature and radiation energy, for a trivial overhead in computational cost and memory usage compared with the base second order integrators. We then test the adaptivity in time on the tophat and Larsen problem, demonstrating the ability of the adaptive algorithm to naturally vary the timestep across 4–5 orders of magnitude, ranging from the dynamical timescales of the streaming regime to the thick diffusion limit.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The role of higher-multipolar and repulsive forces in the calculation of collision-broadened line-widths of linear molecules

Collision-broadened line widths in CO-CO2 and CO-O2 collisions have been calculated by incorporating interactions due to octopoles and hexadecapoles and short-range repulsive interactions into Anderson's (1949) theory. It is shown how these higher-order interactions can be manipulated to yield good agreement with experimental data. A critical evaluation of this totally empirical manipulation suggests that a thorough revision of the theory is required for all but simple dipole-dipole interactions. In the process of the evaluation, the values of the multipole moments are discussed.

Varanasi, P.↗

Map-level baryonification: unified treatment of weak lensing two-point and higher-order statistics

Precision cosmology benefits from extracting maximal information from cosmic structures, motivating the use of higher-order statistics (HOS) at small spatial scales. However, predicting how baryonic processes modify matter statistics at these scales has been challenging. The baryonic correction model (BCM) addresses this by modifying dark-matter-only simulations to mimic baryonic effects, providing a flexible, simulation-based framework for predicting both two-point and HOS. We show that a 3-parameter version of the BCM can jointly fit weak lensing maps' two-point statistics, wavelet phase harmonics coefficients, scattering coefficients, and the third and fourth moments to within 2% accuracy across all scales ℓ < 2000 and tomographic bins for a DES-Y3-like redshift distribution ( z ≲ 2), using the FLAMINGO simulations. These results demonstrate the viability of BCM-assisted, simulation-based weak lensing inference of two-point and HOS, paving the way for robust cosmological constraints that fully exploit non-Gaussian information on small spatial scales.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Comparison of the Experimental and Theoretical Distribution of Lift on a Slender Inclined Body of Revolution at M = 2

Pressure distributions and force characteristics have been determined for a body of revolution consisting of a fineness ratio 5.75, circular-arc, ogival nose tangent to a cylindrical afterbody for an angle-of-attack range of 0 degrees to 35.5 degrees. The free-stream Mach number was 1.98 and the free-stream Reynolds number was approximately 0.5 x 10 sup 6, based on body diameter. Comparison of the theoretical and experimental pressure distributions shows that for zero lift, either slender-body theory or higher-order theories yield results which are in good agreement with experiment. For the lifting case, good agreement with theory is found only for low angles of attack and for the region in which the body cross-sectional area is increasing in the downstream direction. Because of the effects of cross-flow separation and the effects of compressibility due to the high cross-flow Mach numbers at large angles of attack, the experimental pressure distributions differ from those predicted by potential theory. Although the flow about the inclined body was, in general, similar to that assumed as the basis for Allen's method of estimating the forces resulting from viscous effects (NACA RM A91I26), the distribution of the forces was significantly different from that assumed. Nevertheless, the lift and pitching-moment characteristics were in fair agreement with the estimated value.

Perkins, Edward W↗