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Machine Learning Application to Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling

Atmospheric chemistry is a high-dimensionality, large-data problem and thus may be suited to machine-learning algorithms. We show here the potential of a random forest regression algorithm to replace the gas-phase chemistry solver in the GEOS-Chem chemistry model. In this proof-of-concept study, we used one month of model output to train random forest regression models to predict the concentrations of each long-lived chemical species after integration based upon the physical and chemical conditions before the chemical integration. The choice of prediction type has a strong impact on the skill of the regression model. We find best results from predicting the change in concentration for very long-lived species and the absolute concentration for shorter lived species. The skill of the machine learning algorithm is further improved by using a family approach for NO and NO2 rather than treating them independently.By replacing the numerical integrator with the random forest algorithm and running this model for one month, we find that the model is able to reproduce many of the features of the reference chemistry simulation. Replacing the integration methodology with a machine learning algorithm has the potential to be substantially faster. There are a wide range of applications for such an approach, e.g. to generate boundary conditions, for use in air quality forecasts or chemical data assimilation systems, etc.

Keller, Christoph A.↗

Sparse Regression as a Sparse Eigenvalue Problem

We extend the l0-norm "subspectral" algorithms for sparse-LDA [5] and sparse-PCA [6] to general quadratic costs such as MSE in linear (kernel) regression. The resulting "Sparse Least Squares" (SLS) problem is also NP-hard, by way of its equivalence to a rank-1 sparse eigenvalue problem (e.g., binary sparse-LDA [7]). Specifically, for a general quadratic cost we use a highly-efficient technique for direct eigenvalue computation using partitioned matrix inverses which leads to dramatic x103 speed-ups over standard eigenvalue decomposition. This increased efficiency mitigates the O(n4) scaling behaviour that up to now has limited the previous algorithms' utility for high-dimensional learning problems. Moreover, the new computation prioritizes the role of the less-myopic backward elimination stage which becomes more efficient than forward selection. Similarly, branch-and-bound search for Exact Sparse Least Squares (ESLS) also benefits from partitioned matrix inverse techniques. Our Greedy Sparse Least Squares (GSLS) generalizes Natarajan's algorithm [9] also known as Order-Recursive Matching Pursuit (ORMP). Specifically, the forward half of GSLS is exactly equivalent to ORMP but more efficient. By including the backward pass, which only doubles the computation, we can achieve lower MSE than ORMP. Experimental comparisons to the state-of-the-art LARS algorithm [3] show forward-GSLS is faster, more accurate and more flexible in terms of choice of regularization

Exact Sparse Least Squares (ESLS)↗