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At least 19 records

Activity Diagrams for DEVS Models: A Case Study Modeling Health Care Behavior

Discrete Event Systems Specification (DEVS) is a widely used formalism for modeling and simulation of discrete and continuous systems. While DEVS provides a sound mathematical representation of discrete systems, its practical use can suffer when models become complex. Five main functions, which construct the core of atomic modules in DEVS, can realize the behaviors that modelers want to represent. The integration of these functions is handled by the simulation routine, however modelers can implement each function in various ways. Therefore, there is a need for graphical representations of complex models to simplify their implementation and facilitate their reproduction. In this work, we illustrate the use of activity diagrams for this purpose in the context of a health care behavior model, which is developed with an agent-based modeling paradigm.

Activity diagram↗

Emulating a System Dynamics Model with Agent-Based Models: A Methodological Case Study in Simulation of Diabetes Progression

An agent-based simulation model hierarchy emulating disease states and behaviors critical to progression of diabetes type 2 was designed and implemented in the DEVS framework. The models are translations of basic elements of an established system dynamics model of diabetes. In this model hierarchy, which mimics diabetes progression over an aggregated U.S. population, was dis-aggregated and reconstructed bottom-up at the individual (agent) level. Four levels of model complexity were defined in order to systematically evaluate which parameters are needed to mimic outputs of the system dynamics model. Moreover, the four estimated models attempted to replicate stock counts representing disease states in the system dynamics model, while estimating impacts of an elderliness factor, obesity factor and health-related behavioral parameters. Health-related behavior was modeled as a simple realization of the Theory of Planned Behavior, a joint function of individual attitude and diffusion of social norms that spread over each agent s social network. Although the most complex agent-based simulation model contained 31 adjustable parameters, all models were considerably less complex than the system dynamics model which required numerous time series inputs to make its predictions. In all three elaborations of the baseline model provided significantly improved fits to the output of the system dynamics model. The performances of the baseline agent-based model and its extensions illustrate a promising approach to translate complex system dynamics models into agent-based model alternatives that are both conceptually simpler and capable of capturing main effects of complex local agent-agent interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Potential Effects of New Tobacco Products and Policies. A Dynamic Population Model for Multiple Product Use and Harm

Background Recent declines in US cigarette smoking prevalence have coincided with increases in use of other tobacco products. Multiple product tobacco models can help assess the population health impacts associated with use of a wide range of tobacco products. Methods and Findings We present a multi-state, dynamical systems population structure model that can be used to assess the effects of tobacco product use behaviors on population health. The model incorporates transition behaviors, such as initiation, cessation, switching, and dual use, related to the use of multiple products. The model tracks product use prevalence and mortality attributable to tobacco use for the overall population and by sex and age group. The model can also be used to estimate differences in these outcomes between scenarios by varying input parameter values. We demonstrate model capabilities by projecting future cigarette smoking prevalence and smoking-attributable mortality and then simulating the effects of introduction of a hypothetical new lower-risk tobacco product under a variety of assumptions about product use. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to examine the range of population impacts that could occur due to differences in input values for product use and risk. We demonstrate that potential benefits from cigarette smokers switching to the lower-risk product can be offset over time through increased initiation of this product. Model results show that population health benefits are particularly sensitive to product risks and initiation, switching, and dual use behaviors. Conclusion Our model incorporates the variety of tobacco use behaviors and risks that occur with multiple products. As such, it can evaluate the population health impacts associated with the introduction of new tobacco products or policies that may result in product switching or dual use. Further model development will include refinement of data inputs for non-cigarette tobacco products and inclusion of health outcomes such as morbidity and disability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Explaining Health Risk Behaviors in the U.S. with Social Deprivation at Local and Regional Levels

Health risk behaviors are precursors to many chronic health outcomes, and hence, they pose a challenge to public health. Social deprivation undoubtedly creates circumstances that limit access to healthy habits. Moreover, broad regional effects (weather patterns, political ideology, social norms), and local characteristics (cultural notions and barriers, urban places) also influence lifestyle choices and must be accounted for to truly understand the impact of social deprivation on risky behaviors. This research fills the knowledge gap in epidemiological modeling of health risk behaviors by leveraging machine learning to find associations between social deprivation and health risk behaviors, when adjusted by regional and local effects. Four health risk behaviors, namely, binge drinking, smoking, lack of sleep, and lack of physical activity from the CDC PLACES project are considered in a single framework to understand and compare the interplay between local/regional characteristics and seven measures of social deprivation. Our results indicate that local and/or regional factors rise to the top for three out of four risk behaviors (binge drinking, smoking and lack of sleep) out-competing social deprivation measures. Un-entangling the geographical effects reveals that poverty, educational attainment and non-employment are the three deprivation measures most significantly associated with all four health risk factors. The research thus indicates that public health policies to promote healthy lifestyle behaviors must seek to remedy social deprivation, but using socially and culturally sensitive interventions.

Gokhale, Swapna↗

Minimizing Human Risk: Human Performance Models in the Space Human Factors and Habitability and Behavioral Health and Performance Elements

Human space exploration has never been more exciting than it is today. Human presence to outer worlds is becoming a reality as humans are leveraging much of our prior knowledge to the new mission of going to Mars. Exploring the solar system at greater distances from Earth than ever before will possess some unique challenges, which can be overcome thanks to the advances in modeling and simulation technologies. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) is at the forefront of exploring our solar system. NASA's Human Research Program (HRP) focuses on discovering the best methods and technologies that support safe and productive human space travel in the extreme and harsh space environment. HRP uses various methods and approaches to answer questions about the impact of long duration missions on the human in space including: gravity's impact on the human body, isolation and confinement on the human, hostile environments impact on the human, space radiation, and how the distance is likely to impact the human. Predictive models are included in the HRP research portfolio as these models provide valuable insights into human-system operations. This paper will provide an overview of NASA's HRP and will present a number of projects that have used modeling and simulation to provide insights into human-system issues (e.g. automation, habitat design, schedules) in anticipation of space exploration.

space human factors and habitability↗

Interdependence in active mobility adoption: Joint modeling and motivational spillover in walking, cycling and bike-sharing

Active mobility offers an array of physical, emotional, and social well-being benefits. However, with the proliferation of the sharing economy, new nonmotorized means of transport are entering the fold, complementing some existing mobility options while competing with others. The purpose of this research study is to investigate the adoption of three active travel modes—namely walking, cycling, and bikesharing—in a joint modeling framework. Here, the analysis is based on an adaptation of the stages of change framework, which originates from the health behavior sciences. Multivariate ordered probit modeling drawing on U.S. survey data provides well-needed insights into individuals’ preparedness to adopt multiple active modes as a function of personal, neighborhood, and psychosocial factors. The research suggests three important findings. (1) The joint model structure confirms interdependence among different active mobility choices. The strongest complementarity is found for walking and cycling adoption. (2) Each mode has a distinctive adoption path with either three or four separate stages. We discuss the implications of derived stage-thresholds and plot adoption contours for selected scenarios. (3) Psychological and neighborhood variables generate more coupling among active modes than individual and household factors. Specifically, identifying strongly with active mobility aspirations, experiences with multimodal travel, possessing better navigational skills, along with supportive local community norms are the factors that appear to drive the joint adoption decisions. This study contributes to the understanding of how decisions within the same functional domain are related and help to design policies that promote active mobility by identifying positive spillovers and joint determinants.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Demonstrating Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis Systems on an Operational Mission

Developers of robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft are trending towards use of onboard autonomous capabilities for responding quickly to dynamic environments and rapidly changing situations. These capabilities need to know the state of the spacecraft’s health. Model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD) is an approach to estimating health by continuously verifying accurate behavior and diagnosing off-nominal behavior. Proper functioning of MBFD depends on 1) the quality of the diagnostic system model that is analyzed and compared to commands and onboard measurements to estimate a system’s health state, and 2) the correct functionality of the diagnosis engine interrogating the model and comparing its analyses to observed system behavior. Our goal is to develop Verification and Validation (V&V) techniques for MBFD to provide future missions sufficient confidence in its functionality and performance to deploy it on the systems they develop. Our work has been focused on infusing the techniques we developed earlier to an operational mission. First, we are constructing diagnostic models of a spacecraft attitude control system and updating our diagnostic engine so they can be demonstrated aboard the Arcsecond Space Telescope Enabling Research in Astrophysics (ASTERIA) mission, an operational spacecraft for which experiments in autonomy are being planned and executed, using the V&V techniques we have previously developed to assure they are both correct and complete. Since it is nearing the end of its life, ASTERIA provides a unique opportunity to demonstrate MBFD since the monitored components are expected to fail. Our demonstration will give system developers additional confidence to make timely, informed MBFD deployment decisions. Second, we will be completing performance assessments of the diagnostic engine/diagnostic model ensemble both on the flight system and ground-based testbeds to gain confidence in MBFD’s ability to run successfully in a spacecraft’s resource-constrained environment without adversely affecting other on-board activities. Finally, we are capturing our experience in preparing this demonstration in a set of checklists and guidance documents. Current practice includes high-level institutional guidance documents and standards, but at a high level of abstraction that does not necessarily address specific MBFD concerns. The purpose of the new checklists is to provide future mission developers clear, unambiguous, procedure-oriented guidance on assuring MBFD. This paper describes our work in these areas. For the first area, we describe the diagnostic models and updated diagnostic engine that will be used for the on-board demonstration. We describe how the V&V techniques we developed earlier are used to assure model and engine correctness and completeness. For the second area, we identify the performance measurement and assessment techniques used to characterize the diagnostic engine and diagnostic models, and discuss the effect of measured performance on overall mission operation. Finally, we present the checklist and guidance documents and describe how they meet the goals of providing system developers with clear, unambiguous, procedure-oriented guidance on MBFD assurance. We show how the techniques we have developed map into those artifacts.

Nikora, Allen↗

Assurance of Model-Based Fault Diagnosis

Autonomy is an increasingly important technology for robotic scientific and commercial spacecraft. An important motivation for developing onboard autonomy is to enable quick response to dynamic environment and situations, including fault conditions that a spacecraft may encounter. The reliability of such autonomous capabilities depends on the quality of their knowledge of a spacecraft’s health state. Model-based approaches to fault management, i.e. model-based fault diagnosis (MBFD), is one approach to continuously verify correct behavior in addition to diagnosing symptoms to estimate the spacecraft’s health state. The proper functioning of MBFD is dependent on 1) the quality of the model that is analyzed and compared to the outputs of onboard sensors to estimate the system’s health state, and 2) the correct functioning of the diagnosis engine that interrogates the model and compares its analysis to observed system behavior. We are currently developing Verification and Validation (V&V) approaches to provide the necessary confidence that MBFD systems are correctly estimating the health of on-board spacecraft components and systems. Our work is intended to narrow the gap between the rapidly maturing field of ModelBased System Engineering (including MBFD) and the less-well understood area of identifying and applying appropriate V&V techniques to MBFD. Our effort is investigating three areas: 1) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic model, 2) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine in isolation, and 3) developing V&V techniques for the diagnostic engine and model in combination. This paper describes the work we have completed in the first area. We describe our approach to selecting a system to be represented by a model, the approach to modeling the system, the verification approach we developed for the model, and the results of the verification activity. We conclude with a description of the work remaining in the last two areas, which will be addressed over the next two years.

Chung, Seung↗

Leave taking and overtime behavior as related to demographic, health, and job variables

An intra-installation model is formulated that correlates demographic, health and job related variables to the various types and amounts of leave and overtime taking behavior of employees. Statistical comparison of composite health ratings assigned to subjects based upon clinical criteria and bio-statistical data show that those employees who take the most annual leave as well as sick leave are the ones that have the poorest health ratings; employees who put in the most overtime have also the poorest health records. Stress effects of peak activity periods increase use of sick leave immediately after peak activity but not the use of annual leave.

Arnoldi, L. B.↗

A meta-analysis of the association between gender and protective behaviors in response to respiratory epidemics

Respiratory infectious disease epidemics and pandemics are recurring events that levy a high cost on individuals and society. The health-protective behavioral response of the public plays an important role in limiting respiratory infectious disease spread. Health-protective behaviors take several forms. Behaviors can be categorized as pharmaceutical (e.g., vaccination uptake, antiviral use) or non-pharmaceutical (e.g., hand washing, face mask use, avoidance of public transport). Due to the limitations of pharmaceutical interventions during respiratory epidemics and pandemics, public health campaigns aimed at limiting disease spread often emphasize both non-pharmaceutical and pharmaceutical behavioral interventions. Understanding the determinants of the public’s behavioral response is crucial for devising public health campaigns, providing information to parametrize mathematical models, and ultimately limiting disease spread. While other reviews have qualitatively analyzed the body of work on demographic determinants of health-protective behavior, this meta-analysis quantitatively combines the results from 85 publications to determine the global relationship between gender and health-protective behavioral response. The results show that women in the general population are about 50% more likely than men to adopt/practice non-pharmaceutical behaviors. Conversely, men in the general population are marginally (about 12%) more likely than women to adopt/practice pharmaceutical behaviors. It is possible that factors other than pharmaceutical/non-pharmaceutical status not included in this analysis act as moderators of this relationship. We find these results suggest an inherent difference in how men and women respond to epidemic and pandemic respiratory infectious diseases. In conclusion, this information can be used to target specific groups when developing non-pharmaceutical public health campaigns and to parameterize epidemic models incorporating demographic information.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Battery State of Health Estimator: Cooperative Research and Development Final Report

NREL has developed a software tool to enable Renewance to estimate the degradation of batteries from basic information such as the type of battery and the application of that battery during its first life, so that used batteries may be evaluated for potential repurposing at low cost. This software tool utilizes NREL's BLAST-Lite battery degradation modeling code, which was updated with additional models for commercially produced lithium-ion batteries as a part of this CRADA. The software tool enables users to input details such as battery type and application so that lifetime estimates can be made without any programming or expert battery knowledge. The application input loads in saved values for parameters such as cycles per year, depth-of-discharge, and other battery operating parameters from a file defined by Renewance. These parameters may be modified to refine simulations for specific batteries. The software tool also incorporates a degradation model optimization tool, whereby existing battery degradation models may be tuned according to measured battery health. This ensures that new models still predict degradation behaviors expected from a certain battery chemistry, but with the overall degradation rate tuned to a specific battery make and model. The new model can then be saved for estimating the degradation of other similar batteries. An additional task was planned to utilize machine-learning to enable battery health diagnosis from rapid EIS measurements to accelerate the screening of used batteries. This task was not completed due to lack of available data for training a machine-learning model. CRADA benefit to DOE, Participant, and US Taxpayer: Further development of open-source software tool BLAST-Lite for predicting the lifetime of commercially produced Lithium-ion batteries (NREL SWR-22-69).

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Diagnosing and Predicting Mixed-Culture Fermentations with Unicellular and Guild-Based Metabolic Models

Microbiomes are vital to human health, agriculture, and protecting the environment. Predicting behavior of self-assembled or synthetic microbiomes, however, remains a challenge. In this work, we used unicellular and guild-based metabolic models to investigate production of medium-chain fatty acids by a mixed microbial community that is fed multiple organic substrates. Modeling results provided insights into metabolic pathways of three medium-chain fatty acid-producing guilds and identified potential strategies to increase production of medium-chain fatty acids. This work demonstrates the role of metabolic models in augmenting multi-omic studies to gain greater insights into microbiome behavior.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Dynamic Behavior of Information Technology Systems in Healthcare using Markov Simulation

In recent years, the safety and reliability of information technology (IT) systems in the healthcare industry are of increasing importance. In this paper, we propose an approach for monitoring and predicting reliability degradation in Health IT (HIT) using Markov chain (MC). A MC model provides an opportunity to represent highly dynamic systems, such as HIT, in a succinct manner to simulate the evolution of the system over time in discrete time steps. The model can also represent system behavior that varies over along duration. Consequently, using electronic health records (EHR) data from systems such as the Veterans Affairs’ Corporate Data Warehouse systems, we defined clinical workflow as a Transaction Process Model (TPM). The TPM represents a set of states in the Consult workflow. It is also an ideal workflow description and has several degrees of freedom. The TPM is then converted into a MC representation and the EHR data is used to compute transition probabilities between the nodes in the MC. The original MC representation is perturbed by changing the transition probabilities to simulate alternative system workflow paths and identifying scenarios that could impact system reliability. We present scenarios that illustrate the proposed approach and discuss some of the insights from the results.

Omitaomu, Olufemi↗

Health Monitoring of a Planetary Rover Using Hybrid Particle Petri Nets

This paper focuses on the application of a Petri Net-based diagnosis method on a planetary rover prototype.The diagnosis is performed by using a model-based method in the context of health management of hybrid systems.In system health management, the diagnosis task aims at determining the current health state of a system and the fault occurrences that lead to this state. The Hybrid Particle Petri Nets (HPPN) formalism is used to model hybrid systems behavior and degradation, and to define the generation of diagnosers to monitor the health states of such systems under uncertainty. At any time, the HPPN-based diagnoser provides the current diagnosis represented by a distribution of beliefs over the health states. The health monitoring methodology is demonstrated on the K11 rover. A hybrid model of the K11 is proposed and experimental results show that the approach is robust to real system data and constraints.

health monitoring↗

Poster Abstract: Leveraging Large Language Models to Reveal Interpretable Cooling Behaviors from Smart Thermostat Data

Frequent heatwaves and hot summers increasingly challenge occupant comfort, health, and energy grid stability. Addressing these challenges requires a detailed understanding of household cooling behaviors, such as thermostat adjustments and adaptive responses to extreme conditions. Traditional analyses often rely on aggregated numerical metrics that overlook subtle but important household-specific variations. In this study, we introduce a generalizable methodology that integrates large language models (LLMs) with vision capabilities to enable scalable and detailed analysis of residential thermostat data. Using Ecobee's Donate Your Data (DYD) dataset—which provides five-minute records of indoor temperatures, thermostat setpoints, and HVAC runtimes—we focus on two U.S. cities with contrasting summer climates : Austin (TX) and Phoenix (AZ). Because raw time-series data are not well suited for direct LLM analysis, we transform them into visual representations, such as daily indoor temperature trajectories and weekly runtime histograms, to better capture behavioral variations. Leveraging LLMs' visual interpretation, we extract descriptive behavioral features, including temperature preferences, time-of-day cooling orientation, anticipatory versus reactive heatwave responses, and behavioral consistency. These semantic features support unsupervised clustering to identify distinct occupant archetypes at scale, revealing differences—such as morning-centric anticipatory coolers versus households that shift toward warmer setpoints during heatwaves—that can inform demand response, resilience planning, and health-aware interventions. By converting raw numerical data into interpretable behavioral patterns, this methodology enables scalable and practical analysis of occupant behavior, supporting actionable insights for comfort, resilience, and energy management.

Nihar, Kopal↗

Reducing Tick-Borne Disease in Alabama: Linking Health Risk Perception with Spatial Analysis Using the NASA Earth Observing System

Lyme disease (LD) accounts for most vector-borne disease reports in the U.S., and although its existence in Alabama remains controversial, other tick-borne illnesses (TBI) such as Southern Tick-Associated Rash Illness (STARI) pose a health concern in the state. Phase One of the Marshall Space Flight Center-UAB DEVELOP study of TBI identified the presence of the chain of infection for LD (Ixodes scapularis ticks carrying Borrelia burgdorferi bacteria) and STARI (Amblyomma americanum ticks and an as-yet-unconfirmed agent) in Alabama. Both LD and STARI are associated with the development of erythema migrans rashes around an infected tick bite, and while treatable with oral antibiotics, a review of educational resources available to state residents revealed low levels of prevention information. To improve prevention, recognition, and treatment of TBI in Alabama, Phase Two builds a health communication campaign based on vector habitat mapping and risk perception assessment. NASA Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) satellite imagery identified likely tick habitats using remotely sensed measurements of vegetation vigor (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and soil moisture. Likely tick habitats, identified as those containing both high vegetation density and soil moisture, included Oak Mountain State Park, Bankhead National Forest, and Talladega National Forest. To target a high-risk group -- outdoor recreation program participants at Alabama universities -- the study developed a behavior survey instrument based on existing studies of LD risk factors and theoretical constructs from the Social Ecological Model and Health Belief Model. The survey instrument was amended to include geographic variables in the assessment of TBI knowledge, attitudes, and prevention behaviors, and the vector habitat model will be expanded to incorporate additional environmental variables and in situ data. Remotely sensed environmental data combined with risk perception assessments inform an ongoing outreach campaign consisting of stakeholder meetings and educational seminars.

Hemmings, S.↗

Analysis of Salinity Intrusion in the San Francisco Bay-Delta using a GA- Optimized Neural Net, and Application of the Model to Prediction in the Elkhorn Slough Habitat

The San Francisco Bay Delta is a large hydrodynamic complex that incorporates the Sacramento and San Joaquin Estuaries, the Burman Marsh, and the San Francisco Bay proper. Competition exists for the use of this extensive water system both from the fisheries industry, the agricultural industry, and from the marine and estuarine animal species within the Delta. As tidal fluctuations occur, more saline water pushes upstream allowing fish to migrate beyond the Burman Marsh for breeding and habitat occupation. However, the agriculture industry does not want extensive salinity intrusion to impact water quality for human and plant consumption. The balance is regulated by pumping stations located alone the estuaries and reservoirs whereby flushing of fresh water keeps the saline intrusion at bay. The pumping schedule is driven by data collected at various locations within the Bay Delta and by numerical models that predict the salinity intrusion as part of a larger model of the system. The Interagency Ecological Program (IEP) for the San Francisco Bay/Sacramento-San Joaquin Estuary collects, monitors, and archives the data, and the Department of Water Resources provides a numerical model simulation (DSM2) from which predictions are made that drive the pumping schedule. A problem with this procedure is that the numerical simulation takes roughly 16 hours to complete a C:~ prediction. We have created a neural net, optimized with a genetic algorithm, that takes as input the archived data from multiple stations and predicts stage, salinity, and flow at the Carquinez Straits (at the downstream end of the Burman Marsh). This model seems to be robust in its predictions and operates much faster than the current numerical DSM2 model. Because the system is strongly tidal driven, we used both Principal Component Analysis and Fast Fourier Transforms to discover dominant features within the IEP data. We then filtered out the dominant tidal forcing to discover non-primary tidal effects, and used this to enhance the neural network by mapping input-output relationships in a more efficient manner. Furthermore, the neural network implicitly incorporates both the hydrodynamic and water quality models into a single predictive system. Although our model has not yet been enhanced to demonstrate improve pumping schedules, it has the possibility to support better decision-making procedures that may then be implemented by State agencies if desired. Our intention is now to use this model in the smaller Elkhorn Slough complex near Monterey Bay where no such hydrodynamic model currently exists. At the Elkhorn Slough, we are fusing the neural net model of tidally-driven flow with in situ flow data and airborne and satellite remote sensation data. These further constrain the behavior of the model in predicting the longer-term health and future of this vital estuary.

Thompson, David E.↗

XML-Based SHINE Knowledge Base Interchange Language

The SHINE Knowledge Base Interchange Language software has been designed to more efficiently send new knowledge bases to spacecraft that have been embedded with the Spacecraft Health Inference Engine (SHINE) tool. The intention of the behavioral model is to capture most of the information generally associated with a spacecraft functional model, while specifically addressing the needs of execution within SHINE and Livingstone. As such, it has some constructs that are based on one or the other.

James, Mark↗